Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #2

[stmarysmead]

snipped for focus

You know, the more we beat around this small bush of critical data I have to take the LE's word that ED did not make it to Refuge de Vanesque on 11/22. Search dogs may not have picked up her scent there and that is why they seem confident with that fact. Further, IMO, I suspect ED did not cross into France at the Port de Vanesque. Rather, she headed down towards Banasque from Pic de Sauvegarde starting at about 4pm on 11/22, after her interaction with DC. We may never know why, but I think she scrapped her plan to do the France loop she had planned until 11/25. Accidentally losing her cell phone is just one of myriad reasons she might decide to scrap her plans.

I like your postulation that if ED was still alive and moving around in the area during the day on 11/23 (e.g. staying at another refuge or near a parking lot, climbing the glacier - highly unlikely, finishing her decent to Banasque, heading back up to Pic de Sauvegarde or Port de Vanesque, etc.), she'd likely have been seen. So on the the evening / night of 11/22 when no one else was left on the slopes, IMO, ED disappeared or perished between the summit of Pic de Sauvegarde and the town of Banasque that night. Disappearing can take many forms as can causes of death. But that limited time period and limited geographic area ties to what DC and the ED were focused on from the start (I believe).

So that said, my mind is now starting to grapple with the mystery about what Esther did between her early afternoon summit to Pic de Sauvegarde on 11/21 and her late afternoon ascent towards the same summit on 11/22. I know she was seen doing yoga by her van in Banasque by that school teacher who helped her with the Chia Seed incident. But I think that was 11/20 or 11/21 (perhaps in the morning?). I had always thought she had returned to her van on 11/21, but now I wonder - based on other posters' ideas - if ED may have been hiking in the mountains for two days. Knowing where she stayed the night on 11/21 and where she had been (i.e. who she might have encountered) seems key, IMO.

What do others think ED was doing between the afternoon of 11/21 and the afternoon of 11/22? And does it matter?

I may be missing something(s) obvious so I'd appreciate the course correction.

Excellent post. Thank you!

I also doubt she headed toward France. Her FIRST and EARLY ascent of Pic de Sauvegarde...on the day before...would have been a far more optimal time to continue in that direction. It was still early in the day and I assume there are other refuges on the trek if she bypassed the nearest one because of the early time.

Instead we find the next sighting of her...is right back in the same area, ascending Pic de Sauvegarde again on the very next day! BUT...Wherever she has been, this time she is making quite a late ascent. No sign of her anywhere after that! No sightings of her in the hours in between.

Where would she have come from to be reaching that mountain again at such a late time? If she’d been at the camper, I’d think she would have been seen and probably would have checked in with Dan or her Mother.

Perhaps we will someday know more...if and when they find her.

Such a lovely woman. So sad.

 

[sundaaaay]

Sorry, I’m confused. Did she climb Pic de Sauvegarde twice? My understanding was she climbed it once, the time she took the selfie. This seems an unusual thing to do. Did the newspapers report this?

 

[sundaaaay]

I see it now, so on Instagram she posted on top of Pic de Sauvegarde on the 21st, and on the 22nd she sent a selfie to her partner from the same spot.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I see it now, so on Instagram she posted on top of Pic de Sauvegarde on the 21st, and on the 22nd she sent a selfie to her partner from the same spot.

Earlier in the thread this is discussed in detail. She has hiked the same route multiple days in a row in the past and posted about it, so it's not out of character for her. MOO

 

[dalsglen]

Excellent post. Thank you!

I also doubt she headed toward France. Her FIRST and EARLY ascent of Pic de Sauvegarde...on the day before...would have been a far more optimal time to continue in that direction. It was still early in the day and I assume there are other refuges on the trek if she bypassed the nearest one because of the early time.

Instead we find the next sighting of her...is right back in the same area, ascending Pic de Sauvegarde again on the very next day! BUT...Wherever she has been, this time she is making quite a late ascent. No sign of her anywhere after that! No sightings of her in the hours in between.

Where would she have come from to be reaching that mountain again at such a late time? If she’d been at the camper, I’d think she would have been seen and probably would have checked in with Dan or her Mother.

Perhaps we will someday know more...if and when they find her.

Such a lovely woman. So sad.

The setting out so late is so confusing. I live in an area of less than 1000m hills and you would never catch me up there after sunset, I'd time it so I'm at least back on the street by darkness, but then again I'm a pyjamas cladded home bird lol

<modsnip: Off topic>

 

[Tortoise]

snipped for focus

You know, the more we beat around this small bush of critical data I have to take the LE's word that ED did not make it to Refuge de Vanesque on 11/22. Search dogs may not have picked up her scent there and that is why they seem confident with that fact. Further, IMO, I suspect ED did not cross into France at the Port de Vanesque. Rather, she headed down towards Banasque from Pic de Sauvegarde starting at about 4pm on 11/22, after her interaction with DC. We may never know why, but I think she scrapped her plan to do the France loop she had planned until 11/25. Accidentally losing her cell phone is just one of myriad reasons she might decide to scrap her plans.

I like your postulation that if ED was still alive and moving around in the area during the day on 11/23 (e.g. staying at another refuge or near a parking lot, climbing the glacier - highly unlikely, finishing her decent to Banasque, heading back up to Pic de Sauvegarde or Port de Vanesque, etc.), she'd likely have been seen. So on the the evening / night of 11/22 when no one else was left on the slopes, IMO, ED disappeared or perished between the summit of Pic de Sauvegarde and the town of Banasque that night. Disappearing can take many forms as can causes of death. But that limited time period and limited geographic area ties to what DC and the ED were focused on from the start (I believe).

So that said, my mind is now starting to grapple with the mystery about what Esther did between her early afternoon summit to Pic de Sauvegarde on 11/21 and her late afternoon ascent towards the same summit on 11/22. I know she was seen doing yoga by her van in Banasque by that school teacher who helped her with the Chia Seed incident. But I think that was 11/20 or 11/21 (perhaps in the morning?). I had always thought she had returned to her van on 11/21, but now I wonder - based on other posters' ideas - if ED may have been hiking in the mountains for two days. Knowing where she stayed the night on 11/21 and where she had been (i.e. who she might have encountered) seems key, IMO.

What do others think ED was doing between the afternoon of 11/21 and the afternoon of 11/22? And does it matter?

I may be missing something(s) obvious so I'd appreciate the course correction.

My guess is she camped the night of the 21st.

Several reasons for this guess -

1. I think it looks like she had a plastic bag of provisions with her.
2. It is quite a distance to hike back to the camper van with a heavy pack, only to return the next day. (her journey there on 21st was already aided by a car ride)
3. She didn't make any posts updating on her day's activities on the night of 21st, so was presumably conserving battery.
4. She asked for fruit on 22nd so may have been running short on, or conserving, water.
5. Her hair is not as neatly tied back in the photo on 22nd as it was on 21st.

MOO

 

[ZaZara]

No clues, no leads … now winter snows could cover last trace of missing hiker

“The area’s difficult, the weather’s difficult. It’s not like they’ve gone missing in the middle of a city,” said LBT chief executive Matthew Searle whose charity was formerly known as the Lucie Blackman Trust after the killing in Japan of the 21-year-old. The trust, which supports British nationals in crisis overseas, says that no new leads have materialised in the search for Dingley for some time – no sightings, and no sign that she has tried to access her bank account.

BBM

 

[otto]

I didn't find a temp/weather map for Pic de Sauvegarde, but looking at Benasque and across the border at Bagneres-du-Luchon, other than cold overnight temperatures, there's nothing unusual. It could have been several degrees colder overnight at the top of the mountains with stronger winds. It was generally colder on Nov 22 than Nov 21.

I'm leaning toward hiker error. She had 1.5 hours to arrive at the hostel, and it was a 1.5 hour hike. There was no extra time, so if she was delayed for any reason by even 10 minutes, she would have been mountain climbing in the dark.





Weather archive Benasque

 

[CoverMeCagney]

<....>

I'm leaning toward hiker error. She had 1.5 hours to arrive at the hostel, and it was a 1.5 hour hike. There was no extra time, so if she was delayed for any reason by even 10 minutes, she would have been mountain climbing in the dark.

Part of Dan's statement:

"Esther specified her route from the summit we spoke on. She had two hours of daylight to reach a refuge winter room, a distance that would have taken her less than an hour."

Hiker's mum speaks of heartache as search for 'beloved girl' continues

She had plenty of time to get there before it got dark.

 

[Liz40]

Sadly I think Esther is still in the mountains somewhere and will be found in a few years time. She probably fell badly either down the hillside or met with misadventure in water with or without an injury. With poor reception or potentially not being able to reach her phone she had no lifeline to call for help.

I think the rescue teams were doubtful that she could be found because the terrain is very open and there's little afforestation so they thought she would be spottable after such an intensive search. But that doesn't allow for her being in water where its very possible she would leave no trace. And as many people have commented here its often the case that people are found very close to the search sight for instance in deserts etc some time later.

It is small comfort for those that love her but I think she died doing something that clearly gave her great joy and freedom. But being on your own out in wild terrain always has inherent risks, particularly with less people around due to covid and when changes in weather and visibility can happen fast in the mountains. Small accidents can become big ones fast.

I was moved by this story because I came across the BBC News item about Esther and Dan's blogs and lifestyle only a week before she disappeared and I was touched by their story. Dan will now face some very challenging decisions about his life and where he goes from here. JMO

Like you, I saw the article about them and was interested by the fact that they had left the rat race and decided to hike and travel. I love learning about people following a slightly more unusual lifestyle. It was a few days after reading the article, that I read that Esther had gone missing and just couldn't believe it.

 

[Grouse]

Part of Dan's statement:

"Esther specified her route from the summit we spoke on. She had two hours of daylight to reach a refuge winter room, a distance that would have taken her less than an hour."

Hiker's mum speaks of heartache as search for 'beloved girl' continues

She had plenty of time to get there before it got dark.

She did have plenty of time, and with an arrival time on the Pic of around 4PM it seems to have been planned for an arrival at the refuge at just the right time, not too early to be hanging about unnecessarily (which we know she wasn't a fan of) nor too late to be descending the mountain in the dark.

 

[otto]

Part of Dan's statement:

"Esther specified her route from the summit we spoke on. She had two hours of daylight to reach a refuge winter room, a distance that would have taken her less than an hour."

Hiker's mum speaks of heartache as search for 'beloved girl' continues

She had plenty of time to get there before it got dark.

She was at the summit at 4PM or 3:30PM ?

Consistently it has been said to be 4PM. Sunset was at 5:30PM. That is 1.5 hours maximum daylight. Has the timeline been adjusted to put her on the summit earlier?

Descending from the summit to the Port de Venasque is a 30 minute hike and a 300M (1000 ft) descent.

She still had to hike down the mountain from the Port de Venasque to the Venasque Refuge. If she was at the summit at 4PM, then she had one hour of daylight from the Port de Venasque. The hike is typically 30 minutes.

One hour of hike total, 1.5 hours of daylight.



Randonnée Pic de Sauvegarde en boucle | rando-marche

It's a half hour walk from the Port de Venasque to the Venasque Refuge.

Refuges des Pyrénées - REFUGE DE VÉNASQUE (FFCAM) (2249 m)

 

[CoverMeCagney]

She was at the summit at 4PM or 3:30PM ?

Consistently it has been said to be 4PM. Sunset was at 5:30PM. That is 1.5 hours maximum daylight. Has the timeline been adjusted to put her on the summit earlier?

Descending from the summit to the Port de Venasque is a 30 minute hike and a 300M (1000 ft) descent.

She still had to hike down the mountain from the Port de Venasque to the Venasque Refuge. If she was at the summit at 4PM, then she had one hour of daylight. The hike is typically 30 minutes.

One hour of hike, 1.5 hours of daylight.

View attachment 276357

Randonnée Pic de Sauvegarde en boucle | rando-marche

It's a half hour walk from the Port de Venasque to the Venasque Refuge.

Refuges des Pyrénées - REFUGE DE VÉNASQUE (FFCAM) (2249 m)

"Around 4pm" and "just before 4pm" seem to be the most commonly used estimates.

I imagine Dan has stood in the same spot at the same time, and walked the same route down that Esther should have taken.

 

[otto]

"Around 4pm" and "just before 4pm" seem to be the most commonly used estimates.

I imagine Dan has stood in the same spot at the same time, and walked the same route down that Esther should have taken.

I realize that information from the family is important, but I do question whether the family is leaning towards a theory and refining some of the facts to fit.

For example, we were told that she would have been at the summit at 4PM based on the witness and her partner's early statements. Now that there are questions about daylight and accidents, the timeline is shifting earlier to more or less imply that she had plenty of time and daylight.

Independent information is that she was at the summit at 4PM. It is a 30 minute hike to the Port de Venasque, and another 30 minutes to the refuge. That's an hour, yet the family states the total hike is less than an hour.

Facts are being revised that she was at the summit earlier than first stated, and the hike is shorter than what is stated on independent trail sites.

It seems that something went wrong between Pic de Sauvegarde and the refuge, and that it happened so fast that she was not able to communicate whatever it was.

 

[stmarysmead]

On her Dec19 FB post...the one where she accepts the ride from the friendly stranger...she complains about disappearing paths and confusing goat and sheep tracks that kept leading her off the correct track...and she would “continually‘ (her word) have to get out her map, and hike back to get herself on the correct track.

If this was happening again...she only had 30 minutes till darkness fell. A few of these confused detours and time spent reading the map and correcting, could easily eat away at that precious thirty minutes.

 

[otto]

On her Dec19 FB post...the one where she accepts the ride from the friendly stranger...she complains about disappearing paths and confusing goat and sheep tracks that kept leading her off the correct track...and she would “continually‘ (her word) have to get out her map, and hike back to get herself on the correct track.

If this was happening again...she only had 30 minutes till darkness fell. A few of these confused detours and time spent reading the map and correcting, could easily eat away at that precious thirty minutes.

I understand that she didn't want to spend daylight time at the refuge, but limiting hiking time so that she arrived at the refuge at sunset doesn't strike me as good planning. I think the olympian who was descending when she was ascending around 3-4 PM was surprised at her late start for the very same reasons. She didn't allow time for an unexpected event.

I understand that she enjoyed the solitude and adventure of mountain hiking and had confidence that she could manage every situation, but I suspect that she encountered a natural situation that was fatal - such as going off trail, getting lost and being unprepared for changing mountain conditions and situations.

 

[RickshawFan]

I'm leaning toward hiker error. She had 1.5 hours to arrive at the hostel, and it was a 1.5 hour hike. There was no extra time, so if she was delayed for any reason by even 10 minutes, she would have been mountain climbing in the dark.

Snipped for focus.

I'm 99% sure about an accident, but partly because ED didn't have 1.5 hours to get to the refuge. She had considerably less time, for the simple reason that the valley was going to be in darkness much earlier, and the refuge was down in the valley.
Also, cold dampness would have set in as ED went lower. This isn't accounted for in forecasts.
I think it's unlikely ED accounted for conditions in the valley rather than above. This was going to be a critical error.

 

[RickshawFan]

My guess is she camped the night of the 21st.

Several reasons for this guess -

1. I think it looks like she had a plastic bag of provisions with her.
2. It is quite a distance to hike back to the camper van with a heavy pack, only to return the next day. (her journey there on 21st was already aided by a car ride)
3. She didn't make any posts updating on her day's activities on the night of 21st, so was presumably conserving battery.
4. She asked for fruit on 22nd so may have been running short on, or conserving, water.
5. Her hair is not as neatly tied back in the photo on 22nd as it was on 21st.

Snipped for focus


1. I'd use the same food bag for lunch and/or for a several day trip. And my lunches can get kinda bulky if I'm coming from town: maybe a sandwich or two, a piece of fruit, chocolate, cookies; and you should always carry spare food. My backpack dinners tend to be considerably less bulky. Whether or not ED had a food bag would not be something I'd hang evidence on.
3.IMO the evidence is too flimsy to suggest she summitted twice. There's too much that can be explained away. IG and FB posts can be scheduled, rocky mountain tops can look identical from photos, etc. I think the photo in the black turtleneck and black rain jacket was taken on a different mountain, e.g. the one where she's starfished on a summit.
4. True, there was no source for water going up the mountain. IMO she used up all her water on the way up the Pic. For the rest of the scheduled trip, there's plenty around. Trying to get it in the dark (and if she didn't have a filter, she might be tempted to get in deeper water) would have meant a high potential for accident.
5. Her hair could easily have been mussed from whipping tops on and off. It's not significant IMO.

 

[RedHaus]

I didn't find a temp/weather map for Pic de Sauvegarde, but looking at Benasque and across the border at Bagneres-du-Luchon, other than cold overnight temperatures, there's nothing unusual. It could have been several degrees colder overnight at the top of the mountains with stronger winds. It was generally colder on Nov 22 than Nov 21.

Snipped for focus

Thanks, @otto. I found some other very interesting websites that may help with this weather (plus) quest.

1. Archived Weather for Refuge de Vanesque 11/2020 (11/20-21 looks colder than it was 11/22-23)
Archive météo 42.7°N 0.64°E

2. Website for Refuge de Vanesque (I can't recall if this has been posted - it may be helpful to folks here)
Refuges des Pyrénées - REFUGE DE VÉNASQUE (FFCAM) (2249 m)

<modsnip: Random blogs are not an approved source>

 

[otto]

Snipped for focus.

I'm 99% sure about an accident, but partly because ED didn't have 1.5 hours to get to the refuge. She had considerably less time, for the simple reason that the valley was going to be in darkness much earlier, and the refuge was down in the valley.
Also, cold dampness would have set in as ED went lower. This isn't accounted for in forecasts.
I think it's unlikely ED accounted for conditions in the valley rather than above. This was going to be a critical error.

I've been wondering about mountain shade, sun and instant cooling by several degrees as the sun goes down. I'm curious to better understand the conditions that day, and especially during the time that she was descending from the summit into France. I think it may be a factor and could possibly give some suggestion about where she might be.