Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #2

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We know so little, and I imagine LE has gathered much pertinent information, understandably being withheld from the media.
Two factors I ponder:-
1. It’s been reported tracking dogs were involved in the search. The last known humans to have seen ED, Vigo del Arco and his companion, would have been able to show, likely with considerable accuracy, where they encountered her.
We’d expect the dogs to lead from the point of that encounter to the summit, where reportedly she last communicated with DC via Whatsapp, on Nov. 22nd.
From the summit location, what direction did dogs take to continue tracking her?
For what distance were they able to track her?
Where did they lose her scent?
I wonder if the dogs’ behaviour may have given LE information which caused their decision to consider other reasons for her disappearance, besides a mountain accident.
2. ED’s mother, quoted by The Guardian: “It is utterly out of character for her to be out of contact for this length of time and we are missing her desperately. Esther values family above everything and on all her trips we are always in regular contact, sharing the day-to-day small details of life. We communicated several times every day.”

DC reported ED as missing on Nov. 25th ie. three days after he last heard from her.
Did her mother hear from her during those three days?
If yes, did she learn information valuable for the search?
If no, was she concerned there’d been a mishap?
Did she check if DC had news of ED?

As "it is utterly out of character for her to be out of contact for this length of time” I wonder why both DC and the mother waited three days before one on them raised the alarm. Did they assume ED was out of reach of cell service?
Perhaps answers to these questions have been provided to LE and may aid in their investigation.

If ED has left this world, may her passing have been swift.
For those who love her, may they be granted solace.
 
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Thanks, @otto. I found some other very interesting websites that may help with this weather (plus) quest.

1. Archived Weather for Refuge de Vanesque 11/2020 (11/20-21 looks colder than it was 11/22-23)
Archive météo 42.7°N 0.64°E

2. Website for Refuge de Vanesque (I can't recall if this has been posted - it may be helpful to folks here)
Refuges des Pyrénées - REFUGE DE VÉNASQUE (FFCAM) (2249 m)

<modsnip: Random blogs are not an approved source>

I haven't found her planned hike all that confusing. I think she did her best to communicate her plans to the older man who gave her a lift on Nov 19, but she probably assumed that it didn't matter too much whether he fully understood because she didn't expect that what she told him would matter.

If authorities are relying on what they discussed, each speaking in a foreign language, then it could seem like her plans were fuzzy. Her partner seemed clear on her planned hike, and that is very likely a reliable plan - hike the summit, cross the border to France, stay at the refuge, return to Spain, hike back towards the van on Nov 23, and head to the house-sit on the 24th or 25th.

Very interesting to see the weather conditions at the refuge!
 
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3.IMO the evidence is too flimsy to suggest she summitted twice. There's too much that can be explained away. IG and FB posts can be scheduled, rocky mountain tops can look identical from photos, etc. I think the photo in the black turtleneck and black rain jacket was taken on a different mountain, e.g. the one where she's starfished on a summit.

It's definitely the same summit - the mast can be seen in both (one in the reflection of her glasses because she's standing further back behind it) and it's the same scenery behind her.

Don't forget the IG post was made the day before after she'd received a lift to the foot of the mountain that morning, and she was also seen going up by the Olympian on the afternoon of the 22nd.

pic-de-sauvegarde-sun-last-22-nov-jpg.275788


pic-de-sauvegarde-sat-21-nov-jpg.275787
 
I haven't found her planned hike all that confusing. I think she did her best to communicate her plans to the older man who gave her a lift on Nov 19, but she probably assumed that it didn't matter too much whether he fully understood because she didn't expect that what she told him would matter.

If authorities are relying on what they discussed, each speaking in a foreign language, then it could seem like her plans were fuzzy. Her partner seemed clear on her planned hike, and that is very likely a reliable plan - hike the summit, cross the border to France, stay at the refuge, return to Spain, hike back towards the van on Nov 23, and head to the house-sit on the 24th or 25th.

Very interesting to see the weather conditions at the refuge!

Sorry I'm a bit behind, but I wondered if the stranger who gave Esther a lift came forward? Is that who you are referring to as the older man or ?
 
Sorry I'm a bit behind, but I wondered if the stranger who gave Esther a lift came forward? Is that who you are referring to as the older man or ?

The man (aka mystery hiker) who gave her a lift back to her van on 19th has come forward and spoken to police. We don’t know his name or age.

The older man (Mr Ballarin, who was with his grandson) gave Esther a lift to near to the base of Sauvegarde on Saturday 21st.
 
Snipped for focus

Thanks, @otto. I found some other very interesting websites that may help with this weather (plus) quest.

1. Archived Weather for Refuge de Vanesque 11/2020 (11/20-21 looks colder than it was 11/22-23)
Archive météo 42.7°N 0.64°E

2. Website for Refuge de Vanesque (I can't recall if this has been posted - it may be helpful to folks here)
Refuges des Pyrénées - REFUGE DE VÉNASQUE (FFCAM) (2249 m)

<modsnip: Random blogs are not an approved source>


<modsnip: Quoted post was modsnipped>

The confusion about the route that Esther may have taken is mentioned in various reports. It is suggested that she showed mr Ballarin a different route on het phone than the one she spoke with her partner about. As far as I am aware, her partner has not said anything about this and he went hiking in the area where she was supposed to have been.

For me the big Q remains why she was so late on the Salvaguardia in the afternoon of November 22. Where did she come from and how did she get there? If she did not have enough water left ~we don't know that ~ it would be logical and sensible to first get water and then hike to the top of the mountain. She also might have waited with the climb until the next morning.

It is also possible that all went well on November 22 and whatever happened, happened the next day. I am not sure that it is probable too.
 
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A Canadian man was recently lost while hiking. He stepped off a trail, lost his way in no time, jogged in one spot overnight for 13 hours, was spotted by helicopter the following day. Posting this to show how easy it happens.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/man-missing-near-nordegg-alta-located-rcmp-1.5839739

Out of curiosity, does anyone know the temperature at the summit (Pic de Sauvegarde) at 4PM on Nov 22, and at 4AM on Nov 23?

This is what happens in NZ even in summer.

People get lost/injured, don't have the right kit with them, and especially don't have enough food/water/fuel and die of exposure.

It does not even need to be so cold. You can die quite fast in temperatures above zero if you get wet.
 
My guess is she camped the night of the 21st.

Several reasons for this guess -

1. I think it looks like she had a plastic bag of provisions with her.
2. It is quite a distance to hike back to the camper van with a heavy pack, only to return the next day. (her journey there on 21st was already aided by a car ride)
3. She didn't make any posts updating on her day's activities on the night of 21st, so was presumably conserving battery.
4. She asked for fruit on 22nd so may have been running short on, or conserving, water.
5. Her hair is not as neatly tied back in the photo on 22nd as it was on 21st.

MOO

In the end, because she was not found where the parameters suggest - something must be incorrect about them, due to a change of plan or accident IMO. But that is hardly so unusual in the mountains/bush

If she was elsewhere, and got lost/injured, this can easily explain why SARs dogs didn't find her.

One suspects we'll learn the truth in the spring, unfortunately.
 
Snipped for focus.

I'm 99% sure about an accident, but partly because ED didn't have 1.5 hours to get to the refuge. She had considerably less time, for the simple reason that the valley was going to be in darkness much earlier, and the refuge was down in the valley.
Also, cold dampness would have set in as ED went lower. This isn't accounted for in forecasts.
I think it's unlikely ED accounted for conditions in the valley rather than above. This was going to be a critical error.

I was wondering about something like this. One time my dad walked out of a storm, because the helicopter got grounded - and he didn't want to wait. The weather was so atrocious his dog would not come out of the hut, so he had to carry him the first couple of 100m to stop him running back!

Now in that case, Dad was very experienced in the valley, and need only keep descending but it is a very dangerous situation if you stop moving. So even without a storm, if you get wet, tired, and then have a fall, you are in big trouble if no one is coming to look for you. Especially if you are low on food/water
 
I find it odd that she could have become lost here when it’s a relatively straight forward path to the refuge which is clearly visible from Pic de Sauvegarde. She could have found the refuge a bit creepy to spend the night alone in and decided to camp somewhere beyond it, or else decided to take an entirely different route last minute. Although I do think hiker error is the most likely scenario I also do think a female alone on a mountain range is potentially dangerous and would be checking any rangers for potentially criminal records as they do maintain the routes. She could have camped, woken early and continued through the forested area Chemin de l'Impératrice on her way to Bagnères-de-Luchon. This makes the range on which an accident could have taken place much larger and more dense than the area she could have travelled before nightfall at the top of Pic de Sauvegarde.

Also, it’s not unusual for a hiker to wake before sunrise and use a torch to begin travelling as the days in winter are short. At this time it’s unlikely she would have contacted her partner as she knew he would be asleep
 
It's definitely the same summit - the mast can be seen in both (one in the reflection of her glasses because she's standing further back behind it) and it's the same scenery behind her.
Snipped for focus.
IMO we can't rely on a mast for evidence, because there will be masts on many mountains.
 
It's clear the only way we'll figure this out is if one of us volunteers, like NOW, to go do the hike, Pic, Refuge, and loop. Report back. I'm sure if you'd leave your phone on, we'd be willing to give you in-the-moment guidance step by step.

(And if y'all think this is nutso, a group of posters on the Arias thread did exactly that!)
 
/snip/
2. ED’s mother, quoted by The Guardian: “It is utterly out of character for her to be out of contact for this length of time and we are missing her desperately. Esther values family above everything and on all her trips we are always in regular contact, sharing the day-to-day small details of life. We communicated several times every day.”

DC reported ED as missing on Nov. 25th ie. three days after he last heard from her.
Did her mother hear from her during those three days?
If yes, did she learn information valuable for the search?
If no, was she concerned there’d been a mishap?
Did she check if DC had news of ED?

As "it is utterly out of character for her to be out of contact for this length of time” I wonder why both DC and the mother waited three days before one on them raised the alarm. Did they assume ED was out of reach of cell service?
Perhaps answers to these questions have been provided to LE and may aid in their investigation.

If ED has left this world, may her passing have been swift.
For those who love her, may they be granted solace.
Maybe the mother means by "the length of time without contact" from November 22/25 when ED went missing, and until the time the interview was made? As if the family fears that ED have been abducted, and can't communicate with them, as opposite of her staying away on her own free will, that if she was alive she would have contacted them, if she was able to. IMO, Esther have had some kind of accident on her way down, and her body is somewhere it haven't been found yet, but I understand why her family haven't accepted that, and hopes for something that will bring her back alive.
 
It's clear the only way we'll figure this out is if one of us volunteers, like NOW, to go do the hike, Pic, Refuge, and loop. Report back. I'm sure if you'd leave your phone on, we'd be willing to give you in-the-moment guidance step by step.

(And if y'all think this is nutso, a group of posters on the Arias thread did exactly that!)
Is that thread on Websleuths?
 
See also Libby Squire’s thread - a local member did Libby’s whole route plus possible variants of it, on a bike with a go-pro camera on his head. Poor fella even got punched in a road rage incident, on film.

But I’m not a big fan of mountains, so bagsy not me.
Omg. This is a new to me! Only joined to read about this case. Who knew!
 
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