Stranger abduction theory

[Billylee]

Lemmy C.
You are good! Found it. I would assume that LE checked into every adult connected to that school, at least I hope so! Looks like they would have been there if enough students were enrolled that day and even if they cancelled because of the science fair, I could see one of their employees being there that morning would be perfectly acceptable.

 

[Morag]

snip...And I truly think that the Horman home was one with a lot of tension, fighting, and problems. Even KH acknowledged that, although he said they'd worked through their problems in a "positive" fashion.
...snip
.

But J.... said that he had only seen/heard them quarrel one time in the 7 years he lived with them...

 

[Billylee]

Just on our local news another pervert on the run:

http://www.kval.com/news/local/104114959.html

 

[loves2bmom]

Probably not best to jump in as the voice of dissent as a newbie, but what about the statistics as to how unlikely the whole scenario is in the first place? Can you completely discount the like one in a million odds that something like that would happen in the first place to get to your starting point. I woud say the odds of a stranger abducting kyron from this particular location are closer to the one in a million, or at least one in the several hundred thousands. As opposed to the odds that he was taken by a family member and/or the last person who saw him. Those odds are way better imo.

:Welcome-12-june:

Great first post!!

 

[THELASTRESORT]

After reading the theories of stranger abduction vs. step-mom , I've been mulling over the third option. I came across this site and it made me ill as to how many PSO's have infiltrated themselves into our educational systems.:furious:

http://badbadteacher.com/

 

[MarieFaith]

After reading the theories of stranger abduction vs. step-mom , I've been mulling over the third option. I came across this site and it made me ill as to how many PSO's have infiltrated themselves into our educational systems.:furious:

http://badbadteacher.com/

I looked at a few pages of this site. None of the victims I read about were indicated as missing. Not to downplay the crimes, but they appeared to be the typical molestations, without indications that anyone's actual life was in danger.

Since Kyron is gone with no trace, I think it's safe to say there's something much more ominous here.

 

[SacreBleu]

That's what concerns me.

In that report on the pedophile playbook, it's said that these people average over 100 children victimized in their lifetimes. We're obviously not catching them all, and there are obviously a lot of kids falling through the cracks.

Does the report state how many of those victims are abducted and/or killed?

No offense, I'm not saying that a pedo abduction is impossible. I just think that many pedos target kids in the neighborhood with the threat that if they tell, something horrible will happen to their parents, or something similar. They repeat offend, but do not repeat abduct or murder - kwim? I live in an "upscale" zip code - and there was a pedo a few years back who was the great guy who lived across the street, and always had parties for the kids.

 

[Kat010]

snip...And I truly think that the Horman home was one with a lot of tension, fighting, and problems. Even KH acknowledged that, although he said they'd worked through their problems in a "positive" fashion.
...snip
.

But J.... said that he had only seen/heard them quarrel one time in the 7 years he lived with them...

There can be tension without overt quarreling. Some parents decide to quarrel only away from the children. It's JMO, but I think that home was pockmarked with tension.

 

[Calliope]

Does the report state how many of those victims are abducted and/or killed?

No offense, I'm not saying that a pedo abduction is impossible. I just think that many pedos target kids in the neighborhood with the threat that if they tell, something horrible will happen to their parents, or something similar. They repeat offend, but do not repeat abduct or murder - kwim? I live in an "upscale" zip code - and there was a pedo a few years back who was the great guy who lived across the street, and always had parties for the kids.

bbm

No, because those are children victimized before the person is caught (if ever).

I'm not offended at all, but I do disagree with you that pedos "do not repeat abduct or murder". There are plenty of examples of children abducted, raped and murdered by pedophiles/SOs. Somer Thompson comes immediately to mind. Likewise Jessica Lunsford. Sarah Foxwell. Michelle Dorr. Anthony Martinez & Dylan Groene (killed by the same monster). Far too many more to list. But you get the picture.

http://karisable.com/unsmurdch.htm

http://articles.cnn.com/2009-01-26/...daho-boy-joseph-edward-duncan-iii?_s=PM:CRIME


From 2006 report on child abduction and murder:

http://www.atg.wa.gov/ChildAbductionResearch.aspx


Key findings:

• In 74 percent of the missing children homicide cases studied, the child murder victim was female and the average age was 11 years old.
  
• In 44 percent of the cases studied, the victims and killers were strangers, but in 42 percent of the cases, the victims and killers were friends or acquaintances.
  
• Only about 14 percent of the cases studied involved parents or intimates killing the child.
  
• Almost two-thirds of the killers in these cases have prior arrests for violent crimes, with slightly more than half of those prior crimes committed against children.
  
• The primary motive for the child abduction killer in the cases studied was sexual assault.
  
• In nearly 60 percent of the cases studied, more than two hours passed between the time someone realized the child was missing and the time police were notified.
  
• In 76 percent of the missing children homicide cases studied, the child was dead within three hours of the abduction–and in 88.5 percent of the cases the child was dead within 24 hours.

Over half of the child abduction murders are committed by a killer who is a total stranger to the victim. However, the relationship between the victim and the killer varies with the gender and age of the victim. The youngest females, 1 to 5 years old, tend to be killed by friends or acquaintances, while the oldest females, 16 to 17 years old, tend to be killed by strangers. But both the youngest and oldest male victims are likely to be killed by strangers.

Almost two-thirds of the killers have prior arrests for violent crimes, with slightly more than half of those prior crimes committed against children. The most frequent prior crimes against children are rape and other types of sexual assault. Most of the murderers’ prior crimes are similar in MO to the child abduction murder.

------

IMO, abduction can be assumed in most of these cases of rape and sexual assault.

 

[germaine]

:Welcome-12-june:

Great first post!!

I guess I'm an optimist

 

[SacreBleu]

bbm

No, because those are children victimized before the person is caught (if ever).

I'm not offended at all, but I do disagree with you that pedos "do not repeat abduct or murder"

snipped for space...

My apologies. What I meant was that not all pedos are murderers. Poor communication on my part. Thank you, though, for all your research.

 

[liz b.]

I looked at a few pages of this site. None of the victims I read about were indicated as missing. Not to downplay the crimes, but they appeared to be the typical molestations, without indications that anyone's actual life was in danger.

Since Kyron is gone with no trace, I think it's safe to say there's something much more ominous here.

There appear to be two main reasons why children are murdered after being sexually assaulted : one is that the child is aquainted with the pedophile. The pedophile believes that the child will identify them, often because the child has indicated so..... The other reason is that the offender takes pleasure in killing, and uses enough violence in the assault itself to end the child's life. The latter reason looks to be thankfully rarer than the former reason....

All JMO

 

[THELASTRESORT]

I was thinking about the small time frame as the window of opportunity for a stranger abduction. Could the potential stranger have been waiting for the final bell to sound as to aide in his/her plan to abduct Kyron. As in maybe the bell sounding would mask the scream of a child?...kids would be focused on getting to their classes..etc.. just thinking.

 

[AutomaticAuttie]

Maybe it wasn't stanger that walked on campus, but parent or step-parent who has a child attending the school. The reason I say this is because of the Ward Weaver case. Wrad's 12 year old daughter had become friends with these two girls before they were raped and murdered. It's just a thought......

[ame]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ward_Weaver_III[/ame]

 

[Calliope]

Maybe it wasn't stanger that walked on campus, but parent or step-parent who has a child attending the school. The reason I say this is because of the Ward Weaver case. Wrad's 12 year old daughter had become friends with these two girls before they were raped and murdered. It's just a thought......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ward_Weaver_III

Or someone in a relationship (friend or more) with a parent or relative of a student. Grooming them, as it were.

 

[debs]

In the Skyline School thread, i posted the video with TP, who (I still can't believe I missed this all this time) states that it wasn't until after the tour that the substitute noticed Kyron was missing. The reporter states that at 9:45, as the classes were regrouping in their classrooms, the substitute noticed Kyron was missing. TP comes on and says that the sub said "Oh no, there's only 5 where is Kyron?" and the teacher, Ms Porter, says "oh, he probably just went to the bathroom." and then the sub left.

Along the tour route, then, Kyron disappeared. This leaves an opportunity for a stranger abduction, but I still am overwhelmed with the ballsy risk a perp (whoever the perp is) took.

 

[Jade2010]

I wonder where Ned Kelley was found when he absconded this last time? Was it near where he was known to live (according to news story: Buckman neighborhood of southeast Portland)? Or somewhere closer to Skyline Elementary?

http://www.kptv.com/news/24777153/detail.html

I know he is in custody but it's only for a few months then they'll let him out I guess. How many times is one allowed to ascond before they violate parole/probation and are put back in prison for good, or longer than a few months? Since Feb 2009 the guy has absconded, was recaptured and jailed and then absconded again, recently recaptured and now jailed.

Edit: I just found that he was found in a park near Southeast 11th Avenue and Oak Street. Is that the Buckman neighborhood?

 

[i.b.nora]

Yup.

http://www.portlandneighborhood.com/buckman.html

 

[GrainneDhu]

In the Skyline School thread, i posted the video with TP, who (I still can't believe I missed this all this time) states that it wasn't until after the tour that the substitute noticed Kyron was missing. The reporter states that at 9:45, as the classes were regrouping in their classrooms, the substitute noticed Kyron was missing. TP comes on and says that the sub said "Oh no, there's only 5 where is Kyron?" and the teacher, Ms Porter, says "oh, he probably just went to the bathroom." and then the sub left.

Along the tour route, then, Kyron disappeared. This leaves an opportunity for a stranger abduction, but I still am overwhelmed with the ballsy risk a perp (whoever the perp is) took.

debs, I don't think it was as large a risk as it appears to a normal person. One of the things that successful criminals do is spot the assumptions that ordinary people make and exploit those assumptions.

For a totally unrelated example: from the point of view of most people in the US, the 9/11 attacks were a complete surprise and shock. Condi Rice said in front of congress that no one could have seen them coming.

And yet... there was the (largely failed) WTC bombing in 1993. There was the foiled Air France hijacking in 1994, when it was discovered that the hijacker's plans had been to force the pilot to fly the aircraft into the Eiffel Tower. That plot failed in part because the hijackers could not fly the plane themselves. And then there were scattered reports from flight schools of men who enrolled who weren't particularly interested in learning how to take off or land an aircraft, just how to fly one.

The clues were all there but a whole bunch of normal people missed them. It just seemed inconceivable that passenger jets would be used as self propelled firebombs.

Similarly, I think most people are overestimating the difficulty of removing a child from a school. Normal people just don't think about the common social assumptions the vast majority of people operate under in order to make society work. An expert predator spots those assumptions and uses them as part of their plan.

If Kyron was deliberately removed from the school (I don't know yet whether that is true or not), then whoever did it did not run a huge risk, nowhere near as large a risk as it appears.

 

[pufnstuf]

debs, I don't think it was as large a risk as it appears to a normal person. One of the things that successful criminals do is spot the assumptions that ordinary people make and exploit those assumptions.

For a totally unrelated example: from the point of view of most people in the US, the 9/11 attacks were a complete surprise and shock. Condi Rice said in front of congress that no one could have seen them coming.

And yet... there was the (largely failed) WTC bombing in 1993. There was the foiled Air France hijacking in 1994, when it was discovered that the hijacker's plans had been to force the pilot to fly the aircraft into the Eiffel Tower. That plot failed in part because the hijackers could not fly the plane themselves. And then there were scattered reports from flight schools of men who enrolled who weren't particularly interested in learning how to take off or land an aircraft, just how to fly one.

The clues were all there but a whole bunch of normal people missed them. It just seemed inconceivable that passenger jets would be used as self propelled firebombs.

Similarly, I think most people are overestimating the difficulty of removing a child from a school. Normal people just don't think about the common social assumptions the vast majority of people operate under in order to make society work. An expert predator spots those assumptions and uses them as part of their plan.

If Kyron was deliberately removed from the school (I don't know yet whether that is true or not), then whoever did it did not run a huge risk, nowhere near as large a risk as it appears.

Regarding your first point about 9/11, that "the clues were all there but a whole bunch of people missed them," I'd say that the Bush adminstration had more than a clue it was coming. But I'll refrain from political debate on a child-missing thread. That goes in the political forum, in my opinion.

As for your second point: You're right. The person who took him knew exactly how to exploit the school system. Terri had planned this for months, giving her ample time to exploit those weaknesses. This is one reason that I find her to be such a detestable creature. My opinion.