After re-listening to the Burger/Johnson and van der Mewre testimonies this week, I want to revise part of my theory above (which I snipped for space).
The screaming and the bangs, and who heard what, all makes sense to me now (see the sounds thread for my full thoughts).
These are my revised notes for the points above:
14. I do still think that the fighting begin in another area other than the bedroom/bathroom but I think it started somewhere downstairs, either in the kitchen or immediate surrounding area. Mrs. van der Mewre's bedroom faces the front of OP's house and the arguing voice was intermittent which tells me that the person likely changed locations in the house during the fight. She did not hear the blood-curdling screaming before the shots and that is because the final screams occurred in the bathroom on the backside of the house.
They also heard OP crying loudly some time after those last set of shots, most likely because he came down the stairs to open the front door, and also carried Reeva down the stairs. That's what they heard, and that's what Mr. van der Mewre identified when he said, "that's Oscar crying". We know he was sobbing at that point according to Stipp.
When they looked out the window a short time later, an ambulance and other vehicles were already outside. I absolutely believe the shots they heard were the actual gunshots around the 3:16am timeframe.
I have changed my mind about the airgun causing the first banging noises. I think that Mangena would have testified about that. I think that it was the cricket bat hitting wood and the Stipps are the only people who heard it earlier on because their open balcony directly faces OP's bathroom.
15. I still agree with my thoughts here, that OP and Reeva were running in to the bathroom towards the end of the fight, hence the closer screams.
18. and 19. This is when the Stipps hear the first set of bangs- wood on wood and maybe wood on metal plate.
I think the screaming from Reeva occurred over several minutes after that, there was a crack in the door from the bat strikes and she could see OP, and vice versa. The reason for the final climax of terrified screams is that she saw him come back in with the gun. She knew what was coming. He hit her in the hip. She was alive, she saw it, felt it and was in agony. The screaming continued throughout the next 3 shots and ended after the last one. The total silence after the gunshots was witnessed, and testified to, by both Stipps, Burger, Johnson and van der Mewre. All of their testimonies match exactly with that point.
I know we've talked about the bat hitting the door first for a very long time, and I have definitely entertained that as the first set of bangs, but I always was a little hesitant to say for sure that is what I thought it was. After really thinking about the ear witness testimonies all week, and re-listening to them, I am now a full subscriber to bat strikes first. Not that I ever doubted the gunshots seconds. I was always firm on that. Just wasn't sure what exactly caused those first noises. It makes perfect sense to me now though, and I get why the Stipps were the only ones to hear it. Part of my problem was the van der Mewres hearing gunshots around 3am, but after listening to Estelle's testimony again, I realize that she was always talking about the second set of bangs (the gunshots) and just didn't have the exact time.
Don't leave off on the air rifle.
Compare the wound in the back with the air rifle pellet. Both are 4.5mm.
Consider the hole in bedroom door. One source said the pellet was fired into the bedroom, another said it was fired the other way so it is hard to make an accurate judgment without knowing which is correct.
Also, it would be good to know if the height of the hole in the bedroom door lined up with the wound on the back.
At first I thought the striations on the wound might correspond to the striations found on most pellets but after looking closely at the pattern of the weave of the garment I now think it is the garment imprint we see. The striations in the wound look like the pattern on the garment being slapped into the skin by flat headed pellet after going through the bedroom door.
If you look closely at the wound you can see the imprint is a circular 4.5mm. There was enough energy left to tear the skin a little and cause the imprint. The second small wound could have been caused by a wood fragment from pellet going through the door.
Falling on the magazine rack or being impacted by ricochet bullet fragments would not in my mind give us the circular imprint.