Theory Thread - What happened at Pistorius' house on the night of Feb. 13, 2013?

[K.T]

~rsbm~

Crikey .. is this the window that everyone had been referring to? When I asked on here about it some months back, I was told that it was only a tiny hole and I immediately thought that it wouldn't really pose that much of a breach in security of his house, but that hole in that photo is a totally different thing altogether .. that is just ridiculous, especially if he is going to claim he is so scared of possible intruders!

I was surprised to see the picture too. The image I saw previously was a lower res wider shot, and I actually imagined it could have been a circular-ish crack, glass still attached. It actually looks like a burglar-invitation for poorly maintained home security.

Really, Pistorius flouted almost every security measure - broken downstairs window, non-barking friendly dogs, multiple expensive watches laid out, expensive car in driveways, open doors, no window bars, unlocked windows, ladders, possibly disabled security beams - any idea he suffers from severe anxiety or hyper vigilance and paranoia about security just becomes preposterous.

And, didn't WS members early on find images in his Instagram, where he posted pictures of himself having catnaps in his car in SA... Obviously that's not usual behaviour for paranoid, socially phobic agoraphobics who are supposedly petrified about crime.

*sigh* clueless, deflecting defendant

- That Sunday Times article was also interesting - thanks Vansleuths for posting.

 

[JudgeJudi]

Only :bed: :bed: :bed: :bed: to go. Tick tock, tick tock.

 

[jay-jay]

Did OP make two trips upstairs? Stipp says he was outside talking to Stander when he saw OP go upstairs. He asks Stander where the gun is. The response car and ambulance then arrive (both at the same time? Stipp refers to 'they') and, as there's nothing he can do, he leaves. The ambulance arrives at the security gate at 03:41:58. The paramedics announce time of death at 03:50, after which they ask for ID and OP goes upstairs and is followed up by Carice (who hears him walk on the tiled floor). This seems to say he went up twice but I see nothing in Stander's evidence for this. I have always assumed that both instances were in fact the same instance.

BIB .. I think that is what OP is hoping that the judge will believe too, muddying the waters is imperative to his defence .. but .. that isn't the evidence provided by witnesses .. the evidence is just as you stated, i.e. that he went upstairs both *before* and *after* the paramedics arrived. We know what he did on the second trip (i.e. fetched Reeva's ID from her purse/bag) but I am intrigued to know exactly what his first trip up there was all about (which I am almost certain was some kind of crime scene tampering, and I'm pretty sure it was the opening of the bathroom window .. that was the only one thing he had to ensure in order to fit his 'intruder' version, everything else he could always work out a story around later on).

 

[K.T]

Bertrand Cantat trial seemed confounding too. There are a few similarities: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/24/bertrand-cantat-french-killed-girlfriend-comeback

French rockstar convicted of killing girlfriend in Lithuania and released early after four years jail and now reportedly carrying on with career.

Cantat didn't call emergency services, after he describes were just "four slaps" leading to her death by radiator. Yet the prosecution contended he punched her 19 times leading to homicide.

Convicted for eight years under manslaughter, but likely if prosecuted in another country he probably would a received a much harsher conviction. Lithuania justice system is quite regressive, I would say about twenty or thirty years behind in terms of knowledge about partner homicide or gender abuse. In general it has a dubious legal and police system.

The article depressingly details another instance where he may have committed domestic abuse, just before his former wife committed suicide. He has also been accused of taking no responsibility, saying he is "victimised', and of being self absorbed and narcissistic.

 

[vansleuths]

I'm going to disagree slightly with this, because I think Reeva could easily have dislodged the magazine rack with her foot while moving within the toilet. It's quite a narrow space between door and wall.

However!

It didn't happen.

When Pistorius said he heard "wood moving", he meant to imply that the door was opening, the sound of wood rubbing against wood.
But he had to abandon this because having said that the door was locked, he would have heard the key turn first.
If the magazine rack had moved, it would have made either a rattling or scraping sound on tiles. That's not "wood moving".

BIB

Please see below, this is point 87 from PT HOAs.

A proper reconstruction of the events will, however, lead to a finding that it is improbable
that the magazine rack moved before the first shot.
All experts agree that bullet hole “A” was the first shot and that it struck the deceased on
her right hip.57
On the accused’s version he heard a noise and fired. With the magazine rack against
the furthermost wall from the door, the deceased could not have moved it to cause the
purported sound, which was the catalyst which initiated the shooting, and virtually
simultaneously move to the position immediately behind the door in time for the first
shot to hit her as it did.

 

[foxbluff]

BIB

I'm sure an officer informing a family member that one of their loved ones has passed away is very difficult, but I wonder why Botha said that in this case this was one of the "worst things I’ve ever had to do during my time in the police."

Vans, I think it was because, like most of us here, Botha was appalled and outraged at the senseless execution of a beautiful, innocent young woman in the prime of her life... and he, unlike us, arrived at OP's house that morning knowing only that OP had shot his girlfriend and then has the shock of stepping through the front door and seeing Reeva's lifeless body riddled with high-powered bullet wounds... blood everywhere.

I think Botha, like us here, was saddened and appalled by Reeva's death.

 

[vansleuths]

If it's true that Pistorius has liquidated all his SA assets, he needs to be taken into custody at once following the verdicts. (It is not feasible that he could be found not guilty on all charges.) I wouldn't trust him further than I could throw him.

I wonder if OP jumped the gun on this and made this decision without consulting anyone, including his lawyers. Surely his lawyers wouldn't have recommended this.

He may need money for his appeal and for a civil lawsuit expected to be forthcoming from the Steenkamps, but he could have waited until after the bail hearing, assuming he is found guilty, before he started selling his properties. In the short term, I'm sure he could have borrowed money from uncle Arnold or if he didn't want to go there, he could have got a secured credit line against his properties.

Now he has fewer fixed assets to tie him to SA and this will have some impact in his bail hearing.

 

[vansleuths]

There was only one point brought up in Roux's timeline that I haven't been able to fully reconcile in my mind and I wouldn't mind getting some thoughts on this.

Roux said that on the states version, the shooting was at 3:17AM and that the first call was at 3:19AM. That leaves a two minute window during which OP had to put his prosthetic legs on, get the WC door opened, get Reeva out of the WC, scream for help, etc.

Is that enough time and this is what concerned me when Masipa asked during the HOA if the cell phone records were common cause.

 

[foxbluff]

BIB .. I think that is what OP is hoping that the judge will believe too, muddying the waters is imperative to his defence .. but .. that isn't the evidence provided by witnesses .. the evidence is just as you stated, i.e. that he went upstairs both *before* and *after* the paramedics arrived. We know what he did on the second trip (i.e. fetched Reeva's ID from her purse/bag) but I am intrigued to know exactly what his first trip up there was all about (which I am almost certain was some kind of crime scene tampering, and I'm pretty sure it was the opening of the bathroom window .. that was the only one thing he had to ensure in order to fit his 'intruder' version, everything else he could always work out a story around later on).

BBM... and boy did he ever work out stories... going so far as to give the judge multiple choices from which to choose !! lol

Imo, at least one of his fairytale fear stories has now become only too real. There is now a real person and a real Mercedes coming after him... and that person is indeed armed. (BB Fox)

 

[Cherwell]

BIB

Please see below, this is point 87 from PT HOAs.

A proper reconstruction of the events will, however, lead to a finding that it is improbable
that the magazine rack moved before the first shot.
All experts agree that bullet hole “A” was the first shot and that it struck the deceased on
her right hip.57
On the accused’s version he heard a noise and fired. With the magazine rack against
the furthermost wall from the door, the deceased could not have moved it to cause the
purported sound, which was the catalyst which initiated the shooting, and virtually
simultaneously move to the position immediately behind the door in time for the first
shot to hit her as it did.

Thank you, I note that they say it is improbable.
But if you re-read my post, you'll see that I agreed that it didn't happen.
I went on to say that any movement of the rack would not have made the noise he described.

 

[Lux et Veritas]

... None of us knew who Pistorius really was. ... Somehow we kid ourselves into thinking we know the celebrities and immortals of sports because of the bones they throw us, when they pull back the curtain and let us into their world on Twitter. Fans actually imagine a personal relationship, even as more and more their sports heroes are nothing more than products of their handlers, or the crisis managers they hire when they get into trouble. ...

The only real surprise from the Oscar Pistorius scandal is that people continue to confuse sports heroes with real heroes
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more-sports/lupica-sports-stars-pistorius-heroes-article-1.1271932

 

[Chelly]

If Oscar were to flee SA into Mozambique, it seems to me he would have to be in disguise and with false documents. I suspect border control is very aware of the OP situation and would be ordered to detain him. Or, are there areas where OP could sneak across with an accomplish waiting in Mozambique to pick him up and provide his funds?

 

[foxbluff]

I am going to call my reply - The Absence Of Frank.

44ALLAN - The bold text above is perhaps one of the most crucial aspects of this trial - however, OP did not 'decide' to take the stand. As the only first hand witness, he was compelled to provide an account of what happened. In essence, he could not avoid taking the stand. This has given the State an opportunity to test him & question his version (s) and IMHO will lead to his conviction.

No one could have foreseen what a terrible witness he has been. However, in terms of Justice, I believe it to be very fortunate as if Team OP would have thought about it, they should have ensured Frank was a witness.

The Absence of Frank......

I have read many posts about Frank, and that it is a travesty that he did not testify. Actually, I think the opposite. It means that Justice will Prevail and the defence team have missed what could have been the simplest way to get their client acquitted. They should have got him to say that he heard no argument and the dogs were barking. Also that he heard OP shouting to Reeva to call the Police. Then, he was running into the house to help when he heard the shots from upstairs......

A small set piece to create. It would have been easy to do and would have created a huge problem for the State, because then OP would not have been the only first hand witness and could have declined to give evidence saying he was too distraught. Frank would have been thrown under the Bus and OP's version would never have been challenged.
As it is, the Absence of Frank is actually a good thing for the State & it would not surprise me if this wasn't a deliberate ploy.

Just my humble opinion.

Simply BRILLIANT post Hoosen !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <pic emoticon of fox hitting print>

 

[foxbluff]

If Oscar were to flee SA into Mozambique, it seems to me he would have to be in disguise and with false documents. I suspect border control is very aware of the OP situation and would be ordered to detain him. Or, are there areas where OP could sneak across with an accomplish waiting in Mozambique to pick him up and provide his funds?

Chelly, I hope you won't be embarrassed by my reply here... you shouldn't be, as many posters here thought the same way you're thinking.

OP doesn't have to don a disguise in order to escape from SA and the punishment he has coming to him imo. He only needs to fly (picture private jet awaiting him on a runway somewhere nearby) to a country that doesn't have an extradition treaty with South Africa. Beautiful Mozambique, where he loves to take vacations, does not have extradition treaty with SA.

 

[44ALLAN]

Um... I think they realize the multiple significance of the puns and were being playful on both Caesar, the forum, the context overall and the French derivation.

Why man..........he doth bestride the narrow world like a colossus.
And we petty men...........................geez the things you remember from school eh !! lol

 

[Val1]

There was only one point brought up in Roux's timeline that I haven't been able to fully reconcile in my mind and I wouldn't mind getting some thoughts on this.

Roux said that on the states version, the shooting was at 3:17AM and that the first call was at 3:19AM. That leaves a two minute window during which OP had to put his prosthetic legs on, get the WC door opened, get Reeva out of the WC, scream for help, etc.

Is that enough time and this is what concerned me when Masipa asked during the HOA if the cell phone records were common cause.

bbm - I would just like to not that the time of the second set of bangshots is not precise.

http://juror13lw.wordpress.com/2014/03/06/oscar-pistorius-trial-day-4/

Nel objects to the Judge that Roux is stating theories as fact. They argue a bit about which set of noises actually killed Reeva, and Nel wants to clarify to the court that the state’s position is the shots heard at approximately 3:17am are the shots that killed Reeva and there would be no screaming after.

Thus if you believe like me that all OP had to do was 1.rip out the panels after the fact, 2.open the toilet room door(I still don't think RS had locked it, if in fact it ever was but if it was I'm leaning toward OP having locked her in, re OP's need for her to have just said something), 3.decide his course of action(get her body out of there asap, after all she wasn't even supposed to have spent the night and that drive is soooo dangerous, or cry intruder-help help help again), 4.grab his phones(here I don't think he'd left any downstairs while he "slept" or there would have been no need to charge them again already that morning unless he has really crappy batteries), 5.then while putting on his "legs" 6.call his "uncle" Stander for help/advice/pr, 7.call your private ambulance service, grieving bf and all that(plus they would take the body away for him and bonus, tamper with the evidence), 8. field a nosy security call(you know, the ones you can't trust...), and 9.carry RS downstairs so noone will see the bloody mess upstairs.

Considering he actually had closer to 6 minutes to do all that(approximately 3:17 and Stander's didn't get there until approximately 3:23) then yes, I certainly think he had enough time, even with the added wailing...

However, that darn nosy neighbour showed up...

 

[kittychi]

I know if I were Oscar, I would likely be packing now and saying goodbye to SA for good. He will be a pariah, but better in Mozambique than in jail. I would probably be considering suicide also.

Anyone remember the guy in the US who, immediately after he was found guilty, swallowed a cyanide pill in court and died within minutes? OP is enough of a coward to do that, IMO.

:behindbar:

 

[Chelly]

Chelly, I hope you won't be embarrassed by my reply here... you shouldn't be, as many posters here thought the same way you're thinking.

OP doesn't have to don a disguise in order to escape from SA and the punishment he has coming to him imo. He only needs to fly (picture private jet awaiting him on a runway somewhere nearby) to a country that doesn't have an extradition treaty with South Africa. Beautiful Mozambique, where he loves to take vacations, does not have extradition treaty with SA.

I am not embarrassed at all fox bluff. I was jumping off judgejudi's post #1778 a bit upthread where it was pointed out the ease of escape by driving a vehicle over the border.

 

[Jake18]

There was only one point brought up in Roux's timeline that I haven't been able to fully reconcile in my mind and I wouldn't mind getting some thoughts on this.

Roux said that on the states version, the shooting was at 3:17AM and that the first call was at 3:19AM. That leaves a two minute window during which OP had to put his prosthetic legs on, get the WC door opened, get Reeva out of the WC, scream for help, etc.

Is that enough time and this is what concerned me when Masipa asked during the HOA if the cell phone records were common cause.

If he wasn't lying about seeing her breathe then he was with her within seconds.

 

[44ALLAN]

I am going to call my reply - The Absence Of Frank.

44ALLAN - The bold text above is perhaps one of the most crucial aspects of this trial - however, OP did not 'decide' to take the stand. As the only first hand witness, he was compelled to provide an account of what happened. In essence, he could not avoid taking the stand. This has given the State an opportunity to test him & question his version (s) and IMHO will lead to his conviction.

No one could have foreseen what a terrible witness he has been. However, in terms of Justice, I believe it to be very fortunate as if Team OP would have thought about it, they should have ensured Frank was a witness.

The Absence of Frank......

I have read many posts about Frank, and that it is a travesty that he did not testify. Actually, I think the opposite. It means that Justice will Prevail and the defence team have missed what could have been the simplest way to get their client acquitted. They should have got him to say that he heard no argument and the dogs were barking. Also that he heard OP shouting to Reeva to call the Police. Then, he was running into the house to help when he heard the shots from upstairs......

A small set piece to create. It would have been easy to do and would have created a huge problem for the State, because then OP would not have been the only first hand witness and could have declined to give evidence saying he was too distraught. Frank would have been thrown under the Bus and OP's version would never have been challenged.

As it is, the Absence of Frank is actually a good thing for the State & it would not surprise me if this wasn't a deliberate ploy.

Just my humble opinion.

Haha.................no way IMO.
BIB by myself.
Are you saying..............'THEY' as in Roux and the defence should have told Frank to go on the stand and lie?
Tell the court he heard no argument etc etc etc ??
You are joking of course?
Aren't you?

Good plan until Frank is under X with Nel.

Nel..............so Frank the dogs were barking?
Frank...........Yes.
Nel...........But nobody else heard them!
Frank..........erm.........I did.
Nel...............You heard no argument?
Frank.........No.
Nel...........but someone else heard it!
Frank........I didn't.
Nel.............You heard OP shouting to Reeva to call the Police?
Frank.............erm well erm yes erm well

Your right that would have caused a huge problem for the state !
Your kidding right?

How about.................

Nel...............Frank were you in the house the night of the killing?
Frank.........Yes I heard everything.
Nel.............So you must have heard Reeva and OP arguing then Reeva screaming for her life just before he shot her 3 times and blew her brains out?
Frank..............I heard the dogs barking.
Frank..........I didn't hear anyone arguing or raised voices.
Nel..............but you heard dogs barking when nobody else did?
Frank....they must be mistaken.
Nel..........4 people heard Reeva screaming and yelling for her life just before hearing the gunshots that blew her brains out on that night did you hear her screams?
Frank...............I heard the dogs barking................................................................................