I rarely post on WS but I have been keeping up with the Holly Bobo case for several weeks. I want to make a few observations based on what I have read. I may be off base, but I want to focus on the type person involved based on the behaviors we know. My opinions don't really add much to what is known but maybe it will spark additional thoughts or possibilities from others.
Sometimes it is easy to get focused only on the evidence or the lack of it. There are a lot of behavioral clues that can get overlooked that could lead to a sharpened list of suspects. Looking at the information we know and making some educated guesses can tell us a lot about the kind of person who took Holly Bobo (Assuming the current version of facts remains the same and ruling out the brother). The male who took Holly had planned the event in advance. We can conclude this by looking at the totality of the event. The Bobo's home was in a wooded area yet he apparently knew their schedule. Her parents had already left with only the brother and Holly home. The abductor laid in wait, was clothed in camouflage, and likely had a vehicle positioned out of sight of the Bobo home. It appears he was targeting Holly, but it is possible he was actually waiting on Clint. I further believe he likely brought a weapon (gun or knife) with him to the scene though it is not a certainty. Holly screamed when she saw the armed intruder and it was at this point the perp likely struck her either with a fist or the weapon (hence the blood). This is why she went (reluctantly) into the woods with the individual. What does all this tell us about who took Holly? Almost certainly it is someone who knows her or the family. He either knew their habits from surveillance or he had observed it as an acquaintance or neighbor. For those who are hunters, this individual followed the script for deer hunting. He scouted the area, made his plans for taking the target, wore the appropriate clothes, brought the weapon of choice, laid in wait, and subdued his target. His motives for taking Holly are not known and we really don't have great clues to lead us to a conclusion. We can rule out money (as far as we know) and criminal enterprise which are 2 reasons why individuals are abducted. This leaves sexually motivated crimes, revenge (either against Holly or a family member), or for reasons only know to the kidnapper. First, I think we can say this person has above average intelligence as evidenced by his ability to plan ahead. I believe he is a local based on a number of things including knowledge of where she lived, the fact she appears to have been targeted (likely personal motive), and even the fact he wore camouflage argues for a native. I suspect this person is fairly young. My guess, based again on all we know, is that he is between 19 and 27 years old. I believe he is a loner who had few friends and no really close relationships. My reasoning is based on the fact there has been no real information developed from local sources as far as we know (The other possibility is he isn't local and that is why no one knows anything). I think this argues for someone who isn't a talker or a social person. It also suggests someone who lives alone or with someone (perhaps a grandmother) who does not closely supervise the individual or ask questions. I think the time of the abduction, early Wednesday morning, also suggests that the abductor does not work or at least does not work a day shift. He likely is not a known criminal (would have been a suspect early on) but very well may have had minor run-ins. I personally think it is very likely he has had hunting violations or is known to wildlife officers.
(In the above I have suggested a planned event which I think is the most likely, but to be honest, Holly could have been out the evening before and the abductor followed her home, waited all night, and began the process of abducting her when he saw the parents leave in the morning. Not likely, but certainly in the realm of possibilities.)
The troubling thing about all this is we don't know why he did it. If he were simply obsessed with Holly, she may still be alive. If it were revenge or sexually motivated, she likely is not.
To summarize, I think he is a white male between the ages of 19-27 who is acquainted or familiar with Holly or the Bobo family. He is from the local area and lives alone or with a nonintrusive friend or relative. I think he has few if any friends and would be considered a loner. He is at least average intelligence but more likely above average intelligence. He probably is unemployed or sporadically employed but, if he does work, it is likely the 3rd shift. He is comfortable in the woods and is a hunter. He could have some minor run-ins with law enforcement such as poaching, trespassing, or other game laws. He will not be well known in the community as he flies under the radar.
The type individual I have suggested does not perfectly fit some of the normal characteristics for this type offender. This is an organized crime in most respects. An organized offender is usually a very social person who gets along well with others . He is cunning and methodical. He usually picks victims unknown to himself and away from where he lives. He is mobile and travels more miles than normal (In my argument in the above paragraphs about him being a loner, it is because there has been no local talk or information. That could be explained by the fact that he isn't a local). He is often focused on ritual and fantasy. People are shocked when he is arrested because he is perceived as a good person. He is often married and holds down a job. Like our current case though, he does tend to commit his crime in one area and dispose of the evidence in other locations, uses a vehicle (normally well maintained), and brings a weapon to the scene (my own speculation).
I think these same in-congruent elements are what is baffling LE. Is is a local crime? You want to think so, but what of the organized offender characteristics? If it is an organized psychopath, he may be from anywhere and Holly could have been taken anywhere. There just isn't enough evidence to be certain either way. How much more information is needed to start developing a clear vision of the offender? It is a case with more questions than answers.
Finally, let's construct a most likely narrative based on what I said at the beginning. Holly was abducted by a local who was infatuated/obsessed with her. He would have had to plan this for some time and conducted surveillance to pull off the crime as he did. If he were this careful at planning, it is not much of a stretch to think he had a well planned exit strategy as well. He knew where he was going to take her and what he was going to do with her. He didn't want to just kill her. He could have done that at the house. He led her away to his waiting vehicle to take her for a specific purpose. Again, he had a plan. Was it a sex crime? It is where our mind takes us, but maybe it is more complicated than that. He could have committed this crime much easier if it had been away from her home. Why there? Was it safer there in his mind? If so, isn't that a clue as well? Why early in the morning? Was he coming home from a 3rd shift job such as a convenience store or did he know that was the only time Holly would definitely be home and her parents would be gone? If he just wanted to have a forced sexual encounter, wouldnt it have made sense to have done this some other place and in some other way? I think he wanted time with Holly under his control and this thought may be the most foreboding of all.
I also think the reason law enforcement has been quiet is evident from what I have suggested. Holly could be alive if this person were obsessed with Holly and had no plans to hurt but only wanted to possess her. Although a thin chance, it does provide hope. Constant pressure on this type individual could cause him to make the choice to go further than originally intended and take Holly's life. It is the one reason that would make sense to not turn up the heat locally.
