Kyotodeb Welcome to WS!
OK, my theory.
Hubby and wifey are in the casino partying. They are both drinking heavily. She ends up at another table partying, and the hubby continues drinking to the point of almost passing out. So does wifey. At some point wifey stumbles out onto the deck and passes out in a lounge chair. Hubby has become so drunk that someone "assists" him back to his cabin (ship staff maybe?). Once in his cabin, that person starts demanding money, and the drunken hubby is slow in responding maybe making his own threats. They end up out on the balcony and a knife is pulled by the suspect. Hubby gets stabbed and thrown over the balcony. But instead of ending up in the ocean, he lands on the balcony. He is still showing some signs of life, maybe moving, maybe even trying to get up (thus the bloody handprint). The suspect either goes to where he can access the balcony roof and shoves him off of the roof into the ocean or he gets in position to where he can reach him with something and shoves him off (thus the pooling blood and the "drag" marks). It is close to daylight and the person (staff member?) doesn't have time to do any clean up or search for money, and goes about normal beginning for the day. When the alarm is raised for the missing man, the suspect begins the usual procedures for a missing passenger.
This is not the first "missing passenger" that has happened on a cruise ship. There have been several others, and they tend to happen on just 2 or 3 of the cruise lines. IMO if they compared those passenger/staff lists they would find that someone happened to be on most of those ships when a person went missing.
