Unless she shows up or they find her, you are correct: it will be up to a jury to decide.
Again, police had to say something in the affidavit in order to get the warrants. Affidavits are full or theories and beliefs, not proof. That's why affiants have to say the "believe" or "believe based on."
I've spoken of this many times, the AK charge. It seems ramped up, in my opinion, because it has to be based on the intent to do one of six things stated in the law. Only one of those six could possibly fit - the harm or sexual assault one.
They have no proof that he did either of those things, and so they simply rely on "she said" testimony of a different girl who was at the apartment that night in the affidavit for the arrest. Without the stretching, in my opinion, of this other girl's testimony, there is no basis for the arrest warrant.
If there were stronger evidence that he did something, they would have arrested him sooner. Right now, because of the charge they've chosen, it's all circumstantial and based on trying to prove a mindset that may not have even existed except in another girl's mind.