TX TX - Joshua Davis, 18 months, New Braunfels, 4 Feb 2011 - # 3

[Trident]

Emmett Trapp ended up 1 mile from home. He actually walked 3-4 miles, through washes, over hills... then circling back into view of homes, to end up a mile away.




Arizona Toddler Emmett Trapp Wandered for Miles Trying to Find Home
Shoeless Boy Wandered Up to 4 Miles Trying to Get Back Home

http://abcnews.go.com/US/TheLaw/emmett-trapp-wandered-off/story?id=11323106


I will always believe, that had volunteers been allowed to search he certainly would have been found in time. There would have been more than enough people to cover the area he was in.

I'm not familiar with Emmett's case, but from other cases I've followed, I, who have no experience in SAR can see their search parameters can, in some cases, be not good enough. They need to expand them. I don't know where they get the information/statistics with which they create these parameters, but in many cases, they just don't work - not far enough. For some reason I believe that child is lying in a field further out than they searched. I could be wrong, God knows, but given the Tanya Shannon case, found OUTSIDE search area, and the little girl found waist deep in a swamp by a fellow church member again, OUTSIDE the parameters. I can't remember her name, there are so many missing.

The point being, SAR needs to UPDATE their search parameters. I'm not sure what Sarx means by a circle, but my circle would be 2 1/2 miles out, stick a protractor in the missing point and go around 2 1/2 miles, THEN work INWARD and OUTWARD at the same time. Do NOT send volunteer searchers home, put them to work.

My opinion only

 

[TxLady2]

This is just my opinion, but when LE stops taking tips, I believe they have really narrowed their focus, and have a pretty good idea of the person or persons responsible.

Wouldn't doubt we are hours or a day away from an arrest announcement.

No offense, but they better have more than a "pretty good idea." This is a baby who is missing, and a family who is hurting. If they haven't found a body, they can't just assume anything without some hard evidence.

I don't understand them not taking any tips, they just don't do that, IMO. I suppose there could be a lot of whackos calling in stupid stuff just to annoy the police but still.... it doesn't sound right.

 

[TxLady2]

I'm not familiar with Emmett's case, but from other cases I've followed, I, who have no experience in SAR can see their search parameters can, in some cases, be not good enough. They need to expand them. I don't know where they get the information/statistics with which they create these parameters, but in many cases, they just don't work - not far enough. For some reason I believe that child is lying in a field further out than they searched. I could be wrong, God knows, but given the Tanya Shannon case, found OUTSIDE search area, and the little girl found waist deep in a swamp by a fellow church member again, OUTSIDE the parameters. I can't remember her name, there are so many missing.

The point being, SAR needs to UPDATE their search parameters. I'm not sure what Sarx means by a circle, but my circle would be 2 1/2 miles out, stick a protractor in the missing point and go around 2 1/2 miles, THEN work INWARD and OUTWARD at the same time. Do NOT send volunteer searchers home, put them to work.

My opinion only

I agree with you. They do need to expand the search out further, and keep expanding until he is found. And NO tip should go unchecked.

 

[cluciano63]

I don't believe that LE has "stopped taking tips" until/unless LE says so.
I do think it is unreasonable to expect LE to follow up on a sighting of a baby in a truck, without any plate # or even a partial plate. How many trucks are there in TX and how many babies?

But if LE truly does not have a handle on what happened by now, that is very scary indeed.

 

[belimom]

I don't believe that LE has "stopped taking tips" until/unless LE says so.
I do think it is unreasonable to expect LE to follow up on a sighting of a baby in a truck, without any plate # or even a partial plate. How many trucks are there in TX and how many babies?

But if LE truly does not have a handle on what happened by now, that is very scary indeed.

Clu, I agree. I think it's possible they have a good idea of what happened that night but they still do not have little Joshua -- and so they don't know for sure (unless someone is talking).

Based on the wording of the friend's sentence - "no longer taking tips" and then "lines have been jam packed with leads" - she is almost contradicting herself, kwim? She herself used the word "leads" and not something like 'information that's not helping' or whatever.

Also, did LE speak with her directly or is this 3rd-party info that was passed through a few people? I'm guessing LE said something to the effect of the number of leads was hard to handle and sift through (or even something else) that got turned into "no longer taking tips". JMHO

 

[TGIRecovered]

I wish we had more info on the search the parents and friends were conducting today, ie. exactly where they were intending to conduct their search, and if they were allowed by LE to go forward with that search.

If that search is taking place, and should locate the missing Joshua when none of the vast searches by LE have done so, it's going to be hinkey to me IYKWIM, ala JR finding Jonbenet in the basement.

This is exactly why I believe that anyone who was present at the time of the disappearance or anyone very close to a possible POI should never search. Too much chance of contaminating evidencs, giving the real killer's defense lawyer something to use to cause reasonable doubt. Those close to a suspect (such as parents of a suspect) have been known to be willing to do anything to keep their adult child out of prison.

Can you imagine how horrible it would be to find your dead child and not be able to bring the killer to justice because of suspicion that you knew where to look or killed your child yourself?:twocents:

 

[Truthwillsetufree]

Just to jump in with my 2 cents here...if I thought I had seen this baby or had a credible tip and LE wouldn't take my info over the phone, I would just beat feet right on down to the Police Station and make darned sure someone took my information.....

 

[Truthwillsetufree]

This is exactly why I believe that anyone who was present at the time of the disappearance or anyone very close to a possible POI should never search. Too much chance of contaminating evidencs, giving the real killer's defense lawyer something to use to cause reasonable doubt. Those close to a suspect (such as parents of a suspect) have been known to be willing to do anything to keep their adult child out of prison.

Can you imagine how horrible it would be to find your dead child and not be able to bring the killer to justice because of suspicion that you knew where to look or killed your child yourself?:twocents:

I agree with you. Yes, the horrific thought of finding your missing child in a field or anywhere....I would just suggest to the parents to help at a command post.

 

[Tuffy]

This is exactly why I believe that anyone who was present at the time of the disappearance or anyone very close to a possible POI should never search. Too much chance of contaminating evidencs, giving the real killer's defense lawyer something to use to cause reasonable doubt. Those close to a suspect (such as parents of a suspect) have been known to be willing to do anything to keep their adult child out of prison.

Can you imagine how horrible it would be to find your dead child and not be able to bring the killer to justice because of suspicion that you knew where to look or killed your child yourself?:twocents:

Exactly, think about the police in Denver having Mr. Ramsey search their house looking for Jon Benet.

 

[Truthwillsetufree]

I don't know if any of this has been mentioned but thought I would post some of this info.....
New Braunfels Pop in 2009 - 61,572
Located in between Austin and San Antonio
Comal River is right there.
In the summer has a huge tourist population.
Beautiful area with lots of trees and vegetation. Rolling Hills in the lanscape, I'm guessing that is why it's called The Hill Country.

 

[Tuffy]

I don't know if any of this has been mentioned but thought I would post some of this info.....
New Braunfels Pop in 2009 - 61,572
Located in between Austin and San Antonio
Comal River is right there.
In the summer has a huge tourist population.
Beautiful area with lots of trees and vegetation. Rolling Hills in the lanscape, I'm guessing that is why it's called The Hill Country.

To add: New Braunfels is also a weekend destination for people who live in San Antonio, along with other "Hill Country" areas. There are also people who move to New Braufels, and commute to work each day in San Antonio. My husband's friend at work just bought a house out there. There are many new housing subdivisions to accommodate the expanding population.

We tend to think of it as kind of a suburb.

 

[Truthwillsetufree]

To add: New Braunfels is also a weekend destination for people who live in San Antonio, along with other "Hill Country" areas. There are also people who move to New Braufels, and commute to work each day in San Antonio. My husband's friend at work just bought a house out there. There are many new housing subdivisions to accommodate the expanding population.

We tend to think of it as kind of a suburb.

Love, Love, Love New Braunfels. My family is in fact "Tourists" there in the summer. Floating the river and shopping is Fabulous. Beautiful town. To me, a very safe and peaceful place but upon reading some info it appears that the violent crime rate is higher than the Texas average...Hmmmm.
http://www.idcide.com/citydata/tx/new-braunfels.htm

 

[Tuffy]

Love, Love, Love New Braunfels. My family is in fact "Tourists" there in the summer. Floating the river and shopping is Fabulous. Beautiful town. To me, a very safe and peaceful place but upon reading some info it appears that the violent crime rate is higher than the Texas average...Hmmmm.
http://www.idcide.com/citydata/tx/new-braunfels.htm

Huh? According to your link, it's lower:

 

[Truthwillsetufree]

Huh? According to your link, it's lower:

Excuse my error!!! It's the property crime rate that is higher, so sorry, misread.

*New Braunfels's property crime levels tend to be higher than Texas's average level. The same data shows violent crime levels in New Braunfels tend to be about the same as Texas's average level. *

http://www.idcide.com/citydata/tx/new-braunfels.htm

 

[Tuffy]

Excuse my error!!! It's the property crime rate that is higher, so sorry, misread.

*New Braunfels's property crime levels tend to be higher than Texas's average level. The same data shows violent crime levels in New Braunfels tend to be about the same as Texas's average level. *

http://www.idcide.com/citydata/tx/new-braunfels.htm

No prob! I had to look twice to make sure, because the charts are in what I would consider a backward order. Oldest info to newest.

Not that I think it's connected in this case but:

It's funny that the violent crime dropped dramatically (by half) in 2003:

ETA- I guess that is another reason I tend toward the accident theory. We tend to think of New Braunfels as a quiet little bedroom community. As a matter of fact, many of the people that move there from here do so because they want to get away from the city.

 

[justthinkin]

I don't know if any of this has been mentioned but thought I would post some of this info.....
New Braunfels Pop in 2009 - 61,572
Located in between Austin and San Antonio
Comal River is right there.
In the summer has a huge tourist population.
Beautiful area with lots of trees and vegetation. Rolling Hills in the lanscape, I'm guessing that is why it's called The Hill Country.

It's beautiful area alright, but sometimes baked with near 100 degree temps from June through August, and with a portion of September thrown in for good measure.

 

[justthinkin]

No offense, but they better have more than a "pretty good idea." This is a baby who is missing, and a family who is hurting. If they haven't found a body, they can't just assume anything without some hard evidence.

I don't understand them not taking any tips, they just don't do that, IMO. I suppose there could be a lot of whackos calling in stupid stuff just to annoy the police but still.... it doesn't sound right.

Well I never expressed that I thought LE would be assuming anything. I thought perhaps some preliminary reports had been rec'd. from the FBI forensics unit.

OTOH, perhaps LE did say or allow it to leak out that they weren't taking any more leads hoping to put the squeeze on someone or make them sweat, hoping for a confession. LE can put out bogus statements at times, and do do that if it aids in bringing about a confession.

Then again with as much time as has now elapsed, I'm thinking this was bad information period. This wouldn't be the first case where a family got crosswise with LE, and if that is what is happening.

 

[not_my_kids]

They have a dedicated tip line number according to the LE presser. Easy answer to all the questions would be to call the number and ask if they are still accepting tips...MOO.

 

[Tuffy]

I felt a bit better after the cases of kids wandering off, then being found alive, were mentioned. But thinking about the harsh weather we've had during the time he's been missing takes any hope away from me.

I am a bit intrigued by the family's thoughts that he's been kidnapped, though. I'm not sure why they would believe that. Perhaps wishful thinking that he's not out in the elements, and he might be returned unharmed?

I imagine that parents would do a lot to convince themselves that their child might be okay. Ya know, not wanting to think the worst.

 

[panthera]

I felt a bit better after the cases of kids wandering off, then being found alive, were mentioned. But thinking about the harsh weather we've had during the time he's been missing takes any hope away from me.

I am a bit intrigued by the family's thoughts that he's been kidnapped, though. I'm not sure why they would believe that. Perhaps wishful thinking that he's not out in the elements, and he might be returned unharmed?

I imagine that parents would do a lot to convince themselves that their child might be okay. Ya know, not wanting to think the worst.

I also am still curious if the family has any strong indication or reason to believe that someone may have taken Joshua, or if as you say, it may be wishful thinking that he is still alive. MOO