I'm also considering that police strongly stated, when they released the video, their belief that SP was trying to stage the murder as a burglary gone wrong.
"...their belief that SP was trying to stage the murder as a burglary gone wrong" --
I don't think that LE has ever offered any particular opinion like that, much less "strongly stating" that they saw it as a fake burglary.
In the initial PC on Apr 18, the first guy said this...
Q: So are you saying maybe she interrupted a burglary in progress?
A: It certainly is possible. The individual was there, and we have evidence of broken glass and damage to the facility prior to her arrival.
...and this...
Q: Chief, could it be possible that she was targeted? ...Is it possible this was not random?
A: We're exploring all possibilities. It certainly was a strange occurrence ... [and then he went on to elaborate on how confusing it was, how it could certainly be possible there was targeting, but ... and then ended talking about burglary stuff] ...but all scenarios are on the table right now.
Then the 2nd guy (who had not even seen the video) said this:
Q: [a question about the particulars of MB being found]
A: ...Once the officers got there, their preliminary search -- they did determine that there was forced entry into the building, broken glass throughout the building, and from that, determined that it was possibly a burglary that she may have walked in and interrupted.
In that PC, the 2nd guy explicitly said he had not actually seen the video, and it sounded like the first hadn't either (he talked about his "understanding" of what was in the video, rather than having any certainty). As early as it was at that point (just a few hours after the murder), it seems quite unlikely they could have formed ANY strong conclusions.
In the Apr 22 PC, the only words about LPs intent was this very brief ball of nothing:
Q: Are you getting closer to a motive? Was it burglary?
A: We are not getting closer to a motive.
In the May 20 PC, when asked if they have been "leaning" one way or the other between burglary vs targeted, LE said:
We haven't really. You know, until we have strong information that can point us in one direction, we really have encouraged our investigators to stay open-minded...
To say we have a particular narrative that we are even 51[%] to 49 on, is not accurate....