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I'm not thinking of abduction really LewesLady. I think he could be very well hidden and not discovered yet, or put in an industrial sized bin if there are any behind the shops there, to conceal the crime. I don't know if he would have put up a fight for his phone/wallet or not. That would need someone who knows him to weigh in.
Yes, I hope the dogs would have picked up on blood. But they couldn't have covered every square foot of land around Lewes, it does depend on where he went and their hunches as to that. If he was going for a pee, I would think he would not have stood in the road, but looked for a more secluded spot. There is an area of trees behind the buildings near the bus stop, it may be backing onto the council car park?, but google streetview doesn't allow me to zoom in on it because it's not accessible to traffic. I think a knife would be the most likely weapon carried by muggers.I don't believe foul play happened.
I don't want to sound insensitive but .... How could he have been killed?
Gunshot - very unlikely in the UK. Also loud and would have drawn attention and probably been reported.
Knife - much more likely than gunshot but would leave blood evidence which would have been discovered.
Strangled - unlikely I think as AK is healthy and fit and would have put up a hell of a fight. At that time of night it would have attracted attention.
I can't think of another way to kill a grown man out on a road.
If something like this had happened it would have come to light quickly imo.
MOO.
It’s firmly my opinion that AK left intending not to return to the works party. I’ve seen too many clues now that all point to this. I obviously don’t have enough information to know whether that means he was
a) going home
b) starting a new life
c) thinking of ending his life,
but I have a very strong inclination it was (a) and I’ve seen nothing to suggest (c). In fact swinging along as he does in the footage suggests active purpose and not heavy depression, or even feeling ill. I also think (b) is not likely at all. I don’t think he’d make a wrong turning on leaving the Lamb and I think he would have a very well thought out plan if that was the case. Continuing with (b), 18 minutes between the E&C sightings doesn’t seem long enough to have reached a destination and had something happen which has altered his plan, for him to come back.
So the clues that add up to not intending to return to the party, for me, are –
1) his difficult journey to Lewes. 2.5 hours makes me think he is anticipating a difficult journey home. Trains were back to normal I think, but I don’t know if AK knew that, given earlier cancellations and track flooding.
2) if he was intending on buying anything for the group, let’s just say for this instance a takeaway, he would know they were waiting on his return, they would probably not move on until he came back, he would not have walked past Fisher Street (even if he missed it he would know he had as soon as he got to Market St and doubled back to them), they would probably have been alarmed in case he’d come to harm or was lost and not left Lewes without looking for him, he would probably not have assumed they would wait for him much longer if the stint in the Lamb was coming to its probable conclusion around 20 minutes after he left, and he would have been worried about losing them in an unfamiliar town, instead of heading off in a completely different direction and not being seen again inside the Lamb or outside the E&C looking for them. For some of these reasons I don’t think he was looking for cigarettes either.
3) apparently his mates can’t remember anything so I have to wonder if he had told one of them he was leaving to go home that is also something they wouldn’t remember.
4) I don’t think it’s coincidence his phone went off just after he left the Lamb, the timing is too close to his departure for me to think it wasn’t linked and intentional. I think he may have wanted to conserve battery if he might need it later for sorting out a way of getting home, if there was a hold up on his journey, like contacting Lucy or calling a cab when he got closer to home, or he just didn’t want his mates calling him because he felt bad for not staying.
5) the extra money he would have spent on his journey to Lewes. 2.5 hours in a taxi would be an unexpected expense, for what is normally a journey of half that duration, at an expensive time of the year for a man with children and financial constraints. He might have been out of money except for his return fares, he probably budgeted for the night and they might have started chipping in for more drinks for instance, instead of each buying whole rounds. His anxious look could be to do with worrying about flooding and getting home on time and having no money on him to stay, and this could be why he didn’t have a drink at the Lamb.
6) He looks purposeful, even if he appears to have made a wrong turn at E&C, a mistake would also be purposeful until he realised he’d gone the wrong way
7) data usage seems to tally with looking for information which could be linked to maps but I doubt it with the direction he first took, and the next direction he took after that, without putting his phone back on in the meantime for another check of where he was. There is a bus stop for the 132 bus not far past the E&C at The Avenue mini-roundabout. He could have just stood there for a while having a smoke and waiting for a bus, but it only operates on Sundays and only takes you around Lewes, including Lewes bus station. So then he’s realised he needs to get back to the town centre. I believe he was heading for the bus stop close to the war memorial, and this popped up as one of the closest bus stops to the Lamb when he was accessing data.
So I theorize he was looking for a bus. Whether he actually got on one, one that they haven’t yet checked, or made a different decision when he got there is another matter. The phone not coming back on even once suggests to me he didn’t get on a bus. I don’t know how much of a heavy phone user he was but most people seem to check their phones when they have the opportunity or are idle for any length of time. Perhaps he has darted down one of those narrow dark lanes near the bus stop to relieve himself. Walwers Lane or Church Twitten. But after that?? Not using his cards or phone makes me think foul play.
It's difficult isn't it?
Police are examining cctv footage, businesses and householders have been asked to look at theirs, but how many men of average height wearing dark clothes might have walked somewhere in Lewes on the night of the 20th?
Unless the images are pretty clear, it'll be easy to mistake someone for being him, or for dismissing someone who might be.
I'd have put a week's wages on the footage from the North Street filling station being him, but the family said it wasn't and I suppose they have to have the final word.
Gunshot - very unlikely in the UK. Also loud and would have drawn attention and probably been reported.
I know what you mean but I guess they know him bestI was the same with the cctv in station st ...it was removed from SM very quickly but I saw the moving images and the walk was almost identical, the timing fits exactly and the person is walking with a man in a flat cap (same as one of his group of friends were wearing) .. but I've had to accept the family and police would know far better than me ...I still wonder about it though
when younger I'd often walk the 9 mile canal path home after missing my last train is the a walkable path on the rive in Lewes and is it at all a possible walk to AKs home town. I'm not sure the distances but I always seemed to think that was a viable option when drunk
so he had six hours to walk 40 miles. Probably not likely then but mathematically possible I guessHome town of Orpington is about 65k ( 40 miles ) from Lewes
I was the same with the cctv in station st ...it was removed from SM very quickly but I saw the moving images and the walk was almost identical, the timing fits exactly and the person is walking with a man in a flat cap (same as one of his group of friends were wearing) .. but I've had to accept the family and police would know far better than me ...I still wonder about it though
Mostly, a lot lower than they were according to the website www.tidetimes.org.uk, although they have been high and fast flowing right into the New Year. I haven’t seen the river in person though.Have all the flooded areas subsided now?
so he had six hours to walk 40 miles. Probably not likely then but mathematically possible I guess