UK UK - Corrie McKeague, 23, Bury St Edmunds, 24 September 2016 #5

[MidsummersDay]

......Gregg's is known to locals as being a source for late night sandwiches (yes, from the bins). We know Corrie was hungry that night, and he disappears next to bins that may be containing food.

I would respectfully disagree. We know that Corrie ordered a kebab, two burger and chips at 0100 from Mama Mia and was seen eating them at 0115. Unless the guy has an absolutely humongous appetite on top of his beer that night...?

 

[guruagain]

RSBM

You know what other scenario fits the above?

AWOL


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I wonder if he had been watching "Hunted" which was on channel 4 at the time and thought "I can do that" - hence the huge amount of food (I think two burgers, chips and a kebab is a lot for one person even if drunk) and getting shot of the phone - but then I think getting drunk would not be the best preperation for it, unless of course it was the trigger. Maybe he was having trouble settling into No. 2 Sqn, he had only been a member of the Sqn just under a year. AWOL is still a very slight possibility with me but only slight.

Maybe not all the food he purchased was for him, maybe some of it was for whoever he was meeting but then he fell asleep and it was cold so he left it.

 

[markymint]

@MidsummersDay: That's cool! And I know it's not cool to speculate. But even I know a lot of people/drinkers who buy kebabs and then have more food when they get home (possibly napping inbetween). I'm one of them! And from what I know of some of my friends, when it comes to food, military men are bottomless pits. I do agree though, that these actions probably sound quite bizarre. I don't want to insinuate that he digs thru bins for food...

Still - if the assumption is he would've walked back to base, he has an 8 mile hike ahead of him which is a good 2-3 hour walk. I'd grab a snack for that, even if I never ate it. Furthermore, the phone ping on the Barton Mills is next to a 24 hour MacDonalds. From the start of this I have had a strong opinion that his movements are all linked to him trying to find some more food, based originally on his proximity to MacDonalds in town (and eating kebabs) and the Barton Mills ping near a 24 hr MacDonalds, and this latest evidence of behind Gregg's, where someone like me would find free sandwiches in a bin on a good night... Literally feel I could start to cast you an iron chain of all these links now...!

Try this scenario, it's 3.30am ish, he's poking around a Gregg's bin for a sandwitch for his walk (possibly having been directed there by a homeless person), someone spots him (or was lying in wait) and offers to take him up to the 24hour MacDonalds instead at Barton Mills (as the one nearby closed at 11pm and doesn't open til 7 or 8am, and from what's been said it's unlikely anything else selling food is open in the vicinity) and then possibly offered a further lift onto home (base). Only once they reach Barton Mills and the promise of MacDonalds is in sight, things go awry. The phone pings because that's where they are, but it doesn't mean the phone stopped there.

There's a detail in the original CCTV. Corrie drops something and picks it up. So we can assume in his character, he either doesn't want to waste food - even when he's drunk - or has the discipline to clean up his litter. The links to "food" in this case are starting to stack up. It starts with food, the middle bit could be linked to food and the end is also near a food location. Kebab shop, back of Gregg's, 24 hour MacDonalds phone ping... He is literally moving from one food related source to another. In my mind, at least. Yeah I know it's bizarre, tenuous links, but mere co-incidence - I feel these things are not!

If they eliminate the 3 cars still under investigation that were seen leaving the Horseshoe area (food ideas aside, I will be surprised if one of those cars isn't linked to all this) then it's really going to be time to think outside the box IMO, a bit like my food theories Til then though, there is always the cars...

 

[MidsummersDay]

That's the problem....

....there an "many" scenario's that fit (given what is known and not known), it just depends on what "spin" is put on them, to make them fit.

Not knowing "how" the phone travelled is one of the major problems.

Either way (obviously until proven), I think we've settled on an egress from the area in a vehicle of some sort which points to third party involvement. Something that was intimated at by the early press releases but not confirmed.

So let's think about the third party involvement for awhile. It would have to be motorised I'm guessing and probably a car as opposed to a van, lorry or milk float as the majority of people have them.

Now let's consider the 'perp'. I'm guessing that Corrie had prior communication with them otherwise the 0330 connection gets thrown out straight away yer 'onour. That suggests that he knew them (albeit momentarily) for a period of time.

Modus:
AWOL.
This now for me is a real possibility although having so many family members either ex military or current serving police, creates a glitch in the system. The person in the vehicle scenario would not only have to collect Corri but hide him voluntarily for quite some time until he was spirited away to a new life. A Shannon Mathews type of crime. More than likely he would have to leave the country as the UK is too small to disappear in. A lot of things would need to click with this one but it's still possible.
The whole thing was possibly planned as a 48hr move but as with all great plans...they change due to outside influences and the whole thing grew out of hand and Corrie went even more 'underground'. The Canoe Guy is another example. A car and perp absent from base for eight weeks would stand out so an off base suspect be more relevant.

Snatched.
Again a real possibility but I'm inclined to think that the prior arrangement of a pick up at 0330 displaces this theory. No evidence of a struggle, no blood or forensic trace. Nowt, nadda, zilch, zero.

Grinder/Tinder.
Yep, this also fits but as James suggests, any scenario fits. It's the way it's being spun. The contents of the phone dialogues are key. If a phone is binned then there is a reason for it. Knowingly or unknowingly, if a phone goes into a bin it's being discarded by its owner for a reason.

So in conclusion IMHO, the perp would have to be known by Corrie, have a driving licence so over 18 (Corrie is 23 I believe), part of a distant but extended social circle and live off base and probably a civvie (or NOTHING to do with the UK military). I would also guess at someone who lives to the west of Honington within 15 miles of the base.

JMO

 

[MidsummersDay]

@MidsummersDay: That's cool! And I know it's not cool to speculate. But even I know a lot of people/drinkers who buy kebabs and then have more food when they get home (possibly napping inbetween). I'm one of them! I do agree though, that these actions probably sound quite bizarre. I don't want to insinuate that he digs thru bins for food...

Still - if the assumption is he would've walked back to base, he has an 8 mile hike ahead of him which is a good 2-3 hour walk. I'd grab a snack for that, even if I never ate it. Furthermore, the phone ping on the Barton Mills is next to a 24 hour MacDonalds.

Try this scenario, it's 3.30am ish, he's poking around a Gregg's bin for a sandwitch for his walk (possibly having been directed there by a homeless person), someone spots him (or was lying in wait) and offers to take him up to the 24hour MacDonalds instead at Barton Mills (as the one nearby closed at 11pm and doesn't open til 7 or 8am, and from what's been said it's unlikely anything else selling food is open in the vicinity) and then possibly offered a further lift onto home (base). Only once they reach Barton Mills and the promise of MacDonalds is in sight, things go awry. The phone pings because that's where they are, but it doesn't mean the phone stopped there.

There's a detail in the original CCTV. Corrie drops something and picks it up. So we can assume in his character, he either doesn't want to waste food - even when he's drunk as a skunk - or has the discipline to clean up his litter. The links to "food" in this case are starting to stack up. Kebab shop, back of Gregg's, 24 hour MacDonalds phone ping... Yeah I know it's bizarre, but mere co-incidence - I think these things are not.

You might be onto something there fella...

 

[JamesKing]

Either way (obviously until proven), I think we've settled on an egress from the area in a vehicle of some sort which points to third party involvement. Something that was intimated at by the early press releases but not confirmed.

So let's think about the third party involvement for awhile. It would have to be motorised I'm guessing and probably a car as opposed to a van, lorry or milk float as the majority of people have them.

Now let's consider the 'perp'. I'm guessing that Corrie had prior communication with them otherwise the 0330 connection gets thrown out straight away yer 'onour. That suggests that he knew them (albeit momentarily) for a period of time.

Modus:
AWOL.
This now for me is a real possibility although having so many family members either ex military or current serving police, creates a glitch in the system. The person in the vehicle scenario would not only have to collect Corri but hide him voluntarily for quite some time until he was spirited away to a new life. A Shannon Mathews type of crime. More than likely he would have to leave the country as the UK is too small to disappear in. A lot of things would need to click with this one but it's still possible.
The whole thing was possibly planned as a 48hr move but as with all great plans...they change due to outside influences and the whole thing grew out of hand and Corrie went even more 'underground'. The Canoe Guy is another example. A car and perp absent from base for eight weeks would stand out so an off base suspect be more relevant.

Snatched.
Again a real possibility but I'm inclined to think that the prior arrangement of a pick up at 0330 displaces this theory. No evidence of a struggle, no blood or forensic trace. Nowt, nadda, zilch, zero.

Grinder/Tinder.
Yep, this also fits but as James suggests, any scenario fits. It's the way it's being spun. The contents of the phone dialogues are key. If a phone is binned then there is a reason for it. Knowingly or unknowingly, if a phone goes into a bin it's being discarded by its owner for a reason.

So in conclusion IMHO, the perp would have to be known by Corrie, have a driving licence so over 18 (Corrie is 23 I believe), part of a distant but extended social circle and live off base and probably a civvie (or NOTHING to do with the UK military). I would also guess at someone who lives to the west of Honington within 15 miles of the base.

JMO

...and then we try to define "known".

How "known" is known ?

Enough to call and say "I'm here early".
But is that possible from the "third party's" situation (be that whatever).

And turning that on it's head...Corrie clearly decided that he would have a night out "first". Is that because "meeting earlier" was not possible for the "third party".

And then the "lateness of the hour" to meet. I am inclined to rule out "married woman". It just doesn't sit with the situation.

 

[markymint]

Thanks Midsummer... I kind of don't want to be though!

That said, check this out.

Phone mast is on the entrance road to the MacDonalds.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@52.3...4!1sXv5DCYspekqUVoCAC3C33A!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

Furthermore, you can only enter that area via the road by the phone mast, the other entrance/exit right next to the MacDonalds, does not take traffic from the Bury St Edmonds direction.

Granted, it's not like you have to be right next to the mast to get the ping, I doubt... but you swing round the roundabout from the Bury directions and head for the MacDonalds, you make a hell of a pass for a ping off that tower. All the locations in this case and the connection with food outlets and stuff is just...uncanny, IMO.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

AWOL.
This now for me is a real possibility although having so many family members either ex military or current serving police, creates a glitch in the system. The person in the vehicle scenario would not only have to collect Corri but hide him voluntarily for quite some time until he was spirited away to a new life. A Shannon Mathews type of crime. More than likely he would have to leave the country as the UK is too small to disappear in. A lot of things would need to click with this one but it's still possible.
The whole thing was possibly planned as a 48hr move but as with all great plans...they change due to outside influences and the whole thing grew out of hand and Corrie went even more 'underground'. The Canoe Guy is another example. A car and perp absent from base for eight weeks would stand out so an off base suspect be more relevant.

If he was collected by someone in a car specifically to help him go AWOL it would make some sense to drive him straight to Harwich to go as a foot passenger to the Hook of Holland. That 55 miles and just over an hour away. The ferries would have been operating their summer schedule at that time so there would have been a couple of sailings a day. I've looked forward to the equivalent day in 2017 (Saturday, 23rd September) and there will be (and maybe were) sailings at 0900 and 2300. In theory therefore he could have been out of the country by 0900, just over 5 hours since last seen on CCTV.

However I don't know if he would have been allowed to board if he didn't have his passport and paid cash for his ticket. There remains the possibility that the ticket was bought for him by someone else beforehand.

IF this is what happened, he could be anywhere in the Schengen area. He might also have gone the other way to Ireland.


Not sure where I'm going with this but just thinking it through. There would still be the longterm issue of how he would support himself.

 

[DanceCard]

However I don't know if he would have been allowed to board if he didn't have his passport

He would definitely need a passport for that route, a family member slipped up on that about a year ago! You don't need one to travel to Ireland if you're a UK Citizen. But a passport would be needed to leave Ireland for any other international destination.

I still have no firm theory about what happened. I think AWOL is possible, but so are the other theories we're looking at here.:thinking:
I understand people who go AWOL for a weekend bender etc but to go AWOL with the intention of staying gone, changing your whole life, that's a massive thing to do. What would be his motivation to do that? How easy is it to get out of the RAF nowadays? For the army it used to be a minimum 3 year sign up, but that's 30+ years ago I'm talking about.

 

[MissTerious]

Hi long time lurker here - first time post please go easy :thinking:. I wanted to post about AWOL earlier but as a first post didn't want to go too much against current thinking. Here is my rather fanciful scenario as to what may have happened that night and because I so want Corrie to be found safe and well regardless:

I'm with the possibility of AWOL, possibly inspired by hunted as someone else mentioned. Its not the best idea to approach this on a bellyful of booze but he's young, Dutch courage, doesn't know when he will be out socialising next. Perhaps nerves about what he was about to do altered his behaviour and this led to the evening not going as planned, he gets ejected and finds himself hanging around earlier than planned waiting for his agreed pick up from perhaps a trusted friend/acquaintance/someone he recruited (not suspecting this of any of his family or friends known). It could be a while until he gets his next meal so he buys a ton of food and fills himself up and to help time pass. Finally, after hanging around he goes to meet his pick up and person is either there waiting in car and he leaves or pick up isn't there yet and on second cctv image he's looking down the road to make sure his pick up isn't at the other end of the road instead and he waits for pick up and leaves. He has his phone with him when he leaves and dumps it when out of the area (could this be what the search was looking for last week on the A14). The dog was back at the barracks if I remember correctly but he had left it with plenty of food and water but knew that his disappearance would be noted quite quickly because he would be missed and the dog rescued. It's difficult to imagine that someone could put their close family through this but desperate people do desperate things and because of the huge police investigation it has all snowballed out of control. If you can come home Corrie!

 

[rogerthelodger]

A film crew are in the town this morning filming mammas mias & the cctv cameras again, hopefully this will be on the news advertising the POD with more air time than the normal 30 seconds its gets.

 

[markymint]

AWOL is dangerous because you are alluding to very negative things about Corrie.

Firstly, his relationship to his family. You are alluding that they hide things from each other, despite the frequent and adament statement that they know Corrie very well, and are a very close knit family. That he would withhold information from his mother, brother, etc, it's a dark approach, and yet there are no indiciations, even the slightest, that there is a hint of darkness about this chap. He had some beers with friends, he grabbed a kebab and strutted down the street, had a nap and then did a pee or something, and then he was gone. Along with the family statements and the facts, videos etc we do have to go on, it's just hard to stack that up to a premeditated AWOL IMO.

Secondly that, should he say, have shadier rendevous that might lead to an AWOL with or without help, that then he is perhaps in some ways unprofessional as a military man, yet it seems that he is a man who does his duty, has integrity (toward his career and family) and that has a routine well understood by those close to him (colleagues) and even those who aren't (ie the kebab seller).

In similar fashion perhaps, the MH370 pilot (the plane that disappeared). Attested to be a great, sound guy with no financial problems etc and a loving father by the family, but speculated by others to perhaps have sinister motives, despite it being contrary to character completely, a man who has served as a captain for so many years. Which one do you go with? Furthermore, you may never have proof of the AWOL but you'll always have proof of the family relationship, again, which one do you go with?

I'm not saying it's the wrong thing, I'm just saying I feel the evidence points the other way. The psychological and interpersonal aspects (or testimony, at least) does not add up to an AWOL situation.

You also would definitely not make the rendezvous point somewhere with a CCTV camera pointing where's theres no exit other than on camera - even if you only had half a brain cell. Yet the trail goes cold in that Horseshoe place, where we are left wondering if a car drove him off from that point. From descriptions of inner and outer rings (regarding CCTV) it sounds like the last place you'd want to be pulling off something discrete. It's not impossible to make that CCTV oversight, it's just absolutely shoddy compared to the complexity of the rest of the speculative AWOL scenario (as in everything else we've got after that point, which is nothing, other than a phone ping).

I realize it's probably better to stay impartial, but I like to consider the human element, and I don't see any deception in the family ranks, or immediate colleagues or anywhere, myself. As such, I think AWOL portrays Corrie in a negative light, and I don't support that theory. Or maybe it's that I don't WANT to support that theory, if you know what I mean? If I disappear please try and follow my positive trail, not some dark angle of me, it's probably not true, k thx

 

[rogerthelodger]

I would 100% prefer him to be AWOL than any other option, at least he can be forgiven and would still be alive.

 

[eneri12]

AWOL is dangerous because you are alluding to very negative things about Corrie.

Firstly, his relationship to his family. You are alluding that they hide things from each other, despite the frequent and adament statement that they know Corrie very well, and are a very close knit family. That he would withhold information from his mother, brother, etc, it's a dark approach, and yet there are no indiciations, even the slightest, that there is a hint of darkness about this chap. He had some beers with friends, he grabbed a kebab and strutted down the street, had a nap and then did a pee or something, and then he was gone. Along with the family statements and the facts, videos etc we do have to go on, it's just hard to stack that up to a premeditated AWOL IMO.

Secondly that, should he say, have shadier rendevous that might lead to an AWOL with or without help, that then he is perhaps in some ways unprofessional as a military man, yet it seems that he is a man who does his duty, has integrity (toward his career and family) and that has a routine well understood by those close to him (colleagues) and even those who aren't (ie the kebab seller).

In similar fashion perhaps, the MH370 pilot (the plane that disappeared). Attested to be a great, sound guy with no financial problems etc and a loving father by the family, but speculated by others to perhaps have sinister motives, despite it being contrary to character completely, a man who has served as a captain for so many years. Which one do you go with? Furthermore, you may never have proof of the AWOL but you'll always have proof of the family relationship, again, which one do you go with?

I'm not saying it's the wrong thing, I'm just saying I feel the evidence points the other way. The psychological and interpersonal aspects (or testimony, at least) does not add up to an AWOL situation.

You also would definitely not make the rendezvous point somewhere with a CCTV camera pointing where's theres no exit other than on camera - even if you only had half a brain cell. Yet the trail goes cold in that Horseshoe place, where we are left wondering if a car drove him off from that point. From descriptions of inner and outer rings (regarding CCTV) it sounds like the last place you'd want to be pulling off something discrete. It's not impossible to make that CCTV oversight, it's just absolutely shoddy compared to the complexity of the rest of the speculative AWOL scenario (as in everything else we've got after that point, which is nothing, other than a phone ping).

I realize it's probably better to stay impartial, but I like to consider the human element, and I don't see any deception in the family ranks, or immediate colleagues or anywhere, myself. As such, I think AWOL portrays Corrie in a negative light, and I don't support that theory. Or maybe it's that I don't WANT to support that theory, if you know what I mean? If I disappear please try and follow my positive trail, not some dark angle of me, it's probably not true, k thx

I completely agree with all of the above, I can't get my head around Corrie going AWOL it just doesn't fit with what we know about him imo.

It'll be very interesting to see what if anything comes from the cctv showings in Bury this weekend. As someone else mentioned, it might just prove a draw to whoever was involved so I really hope the police will have close eyes on everyone who goes to view the cctv. Hoping for another update soon.

Sent from my F5121 using Tapatalk

 

[Scorpio1]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Air_Force_Police

I didn't know that the RAF police headquarters are at honington, they have dogs and all the search skills , very strange that they are not involved more,

 

[Dcflag]

You could argue that awol only fits with what we know of the character and family relationship with Corrie. Let's be honest, none of us know him. None of his friends or colleagues have come forward with personal information. I understand especially from the military perspective it's not something you want to tar anyone with, so I think while I agree with you he's unlikely awol, it can't ever be completely eliminated until we have some evidence of foul play.

As for the phone, let's think a minute. Why would a phone go in a recycling bin (full of cardboard and paper presumably)?

If you're minimising your chances of getting caught causing harm to someone would you scatter the evidence doubling your chances of being caught? The pings aren't overly accurate, just because they show it could have been in the bin lorry it equally could have travelled close to Barton mills in any of the may other roads in that direction. It may have not been gone to Barton mills it only has to ping the mast.

I'm thinking he had his phone and the battery went dead. I've never had a phone battery last all day until 5am!

Lack of evidence doesn't support a struggle theory. You have to think he must have had a plan for the night, he wasn't going to sleep in the city all night (Nicola confirmed he didn't mean to fall asleep and he didn't sleep long) so he's either planning to meet someone or planning to walk home. How would meeting someone and waiting two hours benefit him more than getting a taxi home?

If you believe he met someone you have a few options

1) someone he knows that he verbally arranged the lift with
2) someone he knows he arrange the lift with over the phone
3) someone he doesn't know he arranged a meeting with through an app

Which one benefits him sitting outside early hours of the morning in the cold instead of getting a taxi home?

What it comes down to is this, you can't enter or exit that loading bay unseen. You just can't. So if you see Corrie enter, you see Corrie exit. Tony has explained how they indemnify people by gait , measurements of sizes etc so we can assume none of the unidentified are Corrie. To get Corrie out "unseen" would require a vehicle. We have vehicles on cctv so it has to be one of them. The unidentified are most likely witnesses, if you can get a witness to corroborate Corrie getting into a car that's vital evidence.

For anyone unsure about the area shown on cctv the find Corrie website has a video someone has taken that walk from the takeaway down to the doorway he sat in and then to the loading bay.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

I'm thinking he had his phone and the battery went dead. I've never had a phone battery last all day until 5am!

Depending on your phone you may like to look at installing a battery saver app in that case. I have a Galaxy S5. It was charged yesterday and has 80% battery left. The battery saver app I installed puts into power saving mode any app not used in the past 3 days.

Most of the time I could get 4 days or thereabouts from a charge, though to be fair I'm not constantly fiddling with it. Nevertheless I use it daily or thereabouts for email, twitter, whatsapp, stock watching, surfing, aurora alerts and various foreign language verb apps and dictionaries.

 

[goape]

Not sure why all my posts on going AWOL are being ignored and it's now a prime option. It's not something anyone with recent military experience would be counting as an option. As I've said before why would he go AWOL? Then need to spend the next few years living like the infamous canoe guy when he could have just PVR'd (handed his notice in) and kept his reputation, contact with his family etc. It's easy to get out these days. I've posted on this before, in the whole RAF from 2007 to 2014 there were only 7 attempts at AWOL (attempts not individual people, so could have all been the same person) these were all in 2013. Meaning that even at the peak of back to back tours of duty in Afghan no-one bothered going AWOL.
If anything it's a lot easier to just take a couple of lines of coke, make an anonymous tip off and get cdt'd and immediately out without any issues.

 

[Dcflag]

Not sure why all my posts on going AWOL are being ignored and it's now a prime option. It's not something anyone with recent military experience would be counting as an option. As I've said before why would he go AWOL? Then need to spend the next few years living like the infamous canoe guy when he could have just PVR'd (handed his notice in) and kept his reputation, contact with his family etc. It's easy to get out these days. I've posted on this before, in the whole RAF from 2007 to 2014 there were only 7 attempts at AWOL (attempts not individual people, so could have all been the same person) these were all in 2013. Meaning that even at the peak of back to back tours of duty in Afghan no-one bothered going AWOL.
If anything it's a lot easier to just take a couple of lines of coke, make an anonymous tip off and get cdt'd and immediately out without any issues.

I agree, I do. I'm just saying that you can't rule out that he's just left of his own accord. Although if he had you'd be forgiven for thinking some had happened since then as 8 weeks is a long time to get away with it. I just meant that until there is proof of foul play you can't disprove the idea he left himself, however completely unbelievable that is.

 

[Dcflag]

Depending on your phone you may like to look at installing a battery saver app in that case. I have a Galaxy S5. It was charged yesterday and has 80% battery left. The battery saver app I installed puts into power saving mode any app not used in the past 3 days.

Most of the time I could get 4 days or thereabouts from a charge, though to be fair I'm not constantly fiddling with it. Nevertheless I use it daily or thereabouts for email, twitter, whatsapp, stock watching, surfing, aurora alerts and various foreign language verb apps and dictionaries.

Ah that is true I guess. I don't do power saving as I have my Fitbit linked so Bluetooth always on, my internet is always turned on etc so my battery lasts a day at most.