GUILTY UK - Joanna Yeates, 25, Clifton, Bristol, 17 Dec 2010 #12

[goldielox]

The person would certainly be a very old individual.

Based on Home Office numbers - for a 25 year old murder victim, there is a 96% probability that the perpetrator will be 50 years old or less.

How many 25 year old murder victims did they base those stats on? And over what period of time - the last year, or over many years?

Or can you please provide a link and I'll go and look myself?

Thanks

 

[goldielox]

Yes, that's what I meant: if he is the one, then it seems unlikely that it was accidental, unless he's very cold indeed. The same applies if it's somebody else: if accidental, wouldn't they be racked with guilt and have confessed by now? Whoever it is, they want to get away with it - at the moment, at least.

Unless it was a game gone wrong I can't see how anyone can accidentally strangle somebody. In a fit of rage and moment of sudden loss of control they might, and could probably claim or even think to themselves that they never meant to do it..they just got carried away, but that's not really accidental is it? They may not have intended to strangle that person to death as they proceeded to strangle them to death, but they did kill them regardless.

 

[Cherwell]

The person would certainly be a very old individual.

He could well be in his 50s, I wouldn't call that "very old". :no:

 

[notsure]

Unless it was a game gone wrong I can't see how anyone can accidentally strangle somebody. In a fit of rage and moment of sudden loss of control they might, and could probably claim or even think to themselves that they never meant to do it..they just got carried away, but that's not really accidental is it? They may not have intended to strangle that person to death as they proceeded to strangle them to death, but they did kill them regardless.

Good point. I really meant "spur-of-the-moment," not accidental. Good job I'm not a lawyer!

 

[moshimoshi]

As far as I'm aware, news of the impending arrest of VT was first broken by Inspectorgadget on his blog at 2.30pm on the 22nd January 2011. The fact that someone then later tweeted that prediction together with the erroneous information that the suspect had apparently confessed is of no great significance.

betover68 posted about VT being charged. That was at some point in the evening and evidently at a time when I had nothing better to do as I remember refreshing the google realtime search. betover68 was certainly the first to break that story. I imagined it was just someone at the station. Alternatively it's a press contact of someone in the police or a lucky and slightly surprising hoaxer. Surprising because of all the internet tomfoolery he could have got up to why choose that story and risk looking foolish within a short space of time.

 

[whiterum]

I found this about a Biennial Christmas Architects Ball

apologies if posted before

http://www.scdf.org.uk/news.php?news=152

 

[Cherwell]

Originally Posted by aneurin
As far as I'm aware, news of the impending arrest of VT was first broken by Inspectorgadget on his blog at 2.30pm on the 22nd January 2011. The fact that someone then later tweeted that prediction together with the erroneous information that the suspect had apparently confessed is of no great significance.

betover68 posted about VT being charged. That was at some point in the evening and evidently at a time when I had nothing better to do as I remember refreshing the google realtime search. betover68 was certainly the first to break that story.

No, Aneurin is right, it was on the Inspector Gadget blog in the afternoon of 22 January. I think Aneurin meant to say 'charge', not 'arrest', because he quoted the date VT was charged.

 

[badhorsie]

Ok I am bored here is inspector Gadget's post
http://inspectorgadget.wordpress.com/page/4/


"Jo Yeates murder team to charge a man today.

January 22, 2011 by inspectorgadget

My sources tell me that Avon & Somerset Police are about to charge 32-year-old Dutch national Vincent Tabak with the murder of Joanna Yeates in Bristol.

Well done to the investigative team and all the CSI’s, all the woodentops on the cordons and the glory-boys from the specialist search teams etc.

Saturday 22nd Jan 2011 at 14.30 hrs. You heard it here first."

 

[aneurin]

How many 25 year old murder victims did they base those stats on? And over what period of time - the last year, or over many years?

Or can you please provide a link and I'll go and look myself?

Thanks

Oh, the numbers are from Home Office Online Report 26/04 - Using homicide data to assist murder investigations, which you can
get from rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs04/rdsolr2604.pdf

It's based on a sample of 2,145 homicides in England and Wales. Or over three years worth. It's worth having a look at, if only because it has some interesting numbers. Such as the fact that 28% of homicides are committed by individuals with no previous convictions, and that in 16% of cases the 'circumstances of the homicide' (i.e.) the motive, are unknown. The paper is all about using statistics to help solve what they call 'hard-to-solve homicides', and how to construct a predicted offender profile. It's the kind of thing that behavioural investigative advisors do.

also do they have the probability of someone knowing 2 victims of strangulation murder

Yes, poor old Geoffrey Hardyman. First his cousin, then the girl downstairs. But I expect the probability of knowing two victims of strangulation murder is probably quite high. I suspect it's a bit like the probability of having two people in the same room who have the same birthday; once you've talking about 30 people or so, it's a virtual certainty.

 

[barriem]

betover68 posted about VT being charged. That was at some point in the evening and evidently at a time when I had nothing better to do as I remember refreshing the google realtime search. betover68 was certainly the first to break that story. I imagined it was just someone at the station. Alternatively it's a press contact of someone in the police or a lucky and slightly surprising hoaxer. Surprising because of all the internet tomfoolery he could have got up to why choose that story and risk looking foolish within a short space of time.

I've just done a search on betover68 and this blog came up also with a lady name Estelle - interesting link....
http://madeleine-foundation.blogspot.com/2011/02/estelle-still-posting-libel-about.html :rocker:

 

[naturally suspicious]

I've just done a search on betover68 and this blog came up also with a lady name Estelle - interesting link....
http://madeleine-foundation.blogspot.com/2011/02/estelle-still-posting-libel-about.html :rocker:

who is/or might be the JH to whom Estelle refers?

 

[whiterum]

who is/or might be the JH to whom Estelle refers?

I think she's referring to GH the elderly man who also lives at 44 canynge Road.

 

[barriem]

who is/or might be the JH to whom Estelle refers?

I am not sure i did another search and in her other tweet blogs she doesn't mention this JH again, her post just caught my eye - especially the bit where she says "anyone thinking police got 'their man' in Vincent Tabak may have to reconsider. All will be revealed soon." just wondered where this came from but after numerous searches i can't find anything else on this.:banghead:

 

[whiterum]

I've just done a search on betover68 and this blog came up also with a lady name Estelle - interesting link....
http://madeleine-foundation.blogspot.com/2011/02/estelle-still-posting-libel-about.html :rocker:

So two serial killers aged 78 and 65, its no wonder they didn't try to
throw the body over the wall as they both would have went over the
wall instead :takeoff:

 

[barriem]

So two serial killers aged 78 and 65, its no wonder they didn't try to
throw the body over the wall as they both would have went over the
wall instead :takeoff:

LOL i really should stop reading these other site blogs, clearly some of these people live on another planet ... :floorlaugh:

 

[Trio]

LOL i really should stop reading these other site blogs, clearly some of these people live on another planet ... :floorlaugh:

Lol Whiterum @ they would have both gone over the wall.

Barriem I do read other Sites too, I cannot believe some of the Post's!.

Strangulation asphyxiation there is the choke hold, that is done from behind when the arm goes across the neck with the inner elbow pressing on the neck, pressure can render a Person unconscious in ten seconds, then death a little later, over very quick.

 

[naturally suspicious]

son in bristol has visited nos 44 and 42 this morning.

He reports NO cars at no 44

and usual 2 in 42 Canynge

So , maybe CJ not returned yet...

 

[veggiefan]

So , maybe CJ not returned yet...

According to http://www.residentiallandlord.co.uk/news2612.html (and I have no idea of their source) GH confirmed that CJ is free to return to his flat but has decided to stay at a secret location because of all the media attention.

The report also enigmatically includes GH's claim that CG "had known Jo for some time". It's a statement from an elderly man, but does it suggest that he knew her before she moved in last October?

 

[Cherwell]

The report also enigmatically includes GH's claim that CG "had known Jo for some time". It's a statement from an elderly man, but does it suggest that he knew her before she moved in last October?

No, I don't think so. While "some time" is often used to mean "quite a long time", it is an indeterminate phrase. In this context, Mr H would probably prefer it to something more specific such as "a couple of months".

 

[moshimoshi]

No, Aneurin is right, it was on the Inspector Gadget blog in the afternoon of 22 January. I think Aneurin meant to say 'charge', not 'arrest', because he quoted the date VT was charged.

Thank you for the clarification. I seem to remember people wondering what was happening and it breaking on twitter. I don't remember anyone discussing the Inspector Gadget blog at all, but as you say the time is very early in the afternoon, it must have been first. The betover person added 'press conference to follow', which as that came to pass, gave his tip a ring of truth. I see he's deleted his latest 'predictive' tweet so where he gets his information from is evidently not too reliable.