Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #10

[DanceCard]

Okay just checked the map data on Google Earth Pro (desktop)
Both satellite images are taken 22 July 2021

View attachment 401875

Thanks for the update that they were taken in July. When I looked at the images I was wondering how it was all so green, e.g all the trees were in leaf in winter!

 

[irnbru]

It would be quite irresponsible of the police give credence to the abduction/ foul play theories in the absence of any evidence to support them, wouldn't it? Raising anxieties, increasing fears, making it more likely that vigilantes will take it upon themselves to identify potential perpetrators and subject them to goodness knows what (most people will be aware of times that members of forums such of reddit have endangered people and caused them immense upset with what turn out to be baseless accusations of involvement in serious crimes). Even if you are someone who just doesn't believe that Nicola entered the water in a tragic accident, surely you don't want the police to make statements that further stir up what is becoming an absolute social media circus?

 

[OrlandoJames]

on another tack entirely ……
I think it is crucial to work out whether or not a body would pass over the weir. The ‘expert’ said he didn’t think it would, although I think he also contradicted himself and later said maybe Nicola would be found down River or in the bay. I read somewhere that locals said when sheep had drowned in the river they got stuck at the weir and didn’t pass beyond it.
Wouldn’t it be sensible to get half a dozen mannequins of similar weight and build to Nicola and try throwing them in at different times but primarily at a similar height of water as when Nicola disappeared. OK mannequins won’t gasp and flail in the same way a human would, but if none got past the weir and downstream then I think it would be indicative that she was never in the river. After all, there seems to be acceptance she is not in the water between the bench and the weir.

Does anybody know whether the weir was there 45 years ago when Roger Jones went into the water upstream from the bench and was found much further downstream? That might answer the question of whether it is possible for a human to go over the weir, although water depth etc would obviously also have to be considered.

 

[rhino]

Does anybody know whether the weir was there 45 years ago when Roger Jones went into the water upstream from the bench and was found much further downstream? That might answer the question of whether it is possible for a human to go over the weir, although water depth etc would obviously also have to be considered.

A weir is mentioned in the article posted earlier about his case, whether it’s the same one or not I don’t know.

 

[martinwatts5]

The thinking is probably that if she has floated down towards the sea, they have a very small window to find her before she's lost forever. They are also searching further upstrean, but they need to cover the bay just in case she's already down there.

In my opinion that doesn’t make sense. You could clear that area today but the body could then move into it tomorrow.

 

[infinit]

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What does weight have to do with the pretty randomness and complexity of a river? If you do it with 1000 rubber duckies or 1000 mannequins of Nicola's weight they're both going to go all over the place providing they're buoyant enough to not just stay at the bottom. There might be places they are more likely to collect in greater numbers due to consistent currents or river features which can trap them and that could perhaps be useful. And no doubt something of that weight would be affected differently and of that size caught in different places, but the outcome is the same... throwing 1 mannequin in is utterly pointless, where is the data to back this method up?

EDIT: I can't seem to find anything outside of doing it multiple times between two points being used in measuring river velocity.

JMO.

 

[PS8800]

IMO the absence of evidence is evidence in itself that a third party is involved - someone has gone to great lengths to bamboozle the police. IMO.

So, no evidence of foul play is evidence of foul play?

 

[Ruthbullock]

During the initial sweep of the river and banks, Wouldn’t it have been an idea to initially float up and down the river/area with NBs phone trying to resync to the Fitbit hoping that it would be within range at some point?

I have a fairly new top of the range Fitbit and it often struggles to sync sat right on top of my phone, so I’m can’t imagine for a second that would work sadly.

 

[Mr X]

IMO it is possible that this is a suicide story and the reason for searching initially in the River.

Not wishing to be pedantic here but that is wrong.

It is not the inhalation of water at all which makes the body sink - it is the lack of buoyancy from air in the lungs. In fact when a person drowns, the cause of death is actually suffocation. The body has a natural defence mechanism which closes up the air passage when something other than air is introduced. Anyone who has coughed or 'choked' on a drink 'going down the wrong way' will have experienced that. A body will float for a short time before sinking due to lack of buoyancy.

That's not to say the mannequin idea is sound or not, I'm just making a general point based on your comment.

That is interesting. Presumably the automatic reflex of closing up the airway would be canceled out if the individual died. In which case IMO presumably water would enter the lungs.

Are you saying that drowning victims do not have water in their lungs when recovered?

I would say that if they do then they inhaled water (not deliberately) and this is what made them sink.

 

[russeverton]

It would be quite irresponsible of the police give credence to the abduction/ foul play theories in the absence of any evidence to support them, wouldn't it? Raising anxieties, increasing fears, making it more likely that vigilantes will take it upon themselves to identify potential perpetrators and subject them to goodness knows what (most people will be aware of times that members of forums such of reddit have endangered people and caused them immense upset with what turn out to be baseless accusations of involvement in serious crimes). Even if you are someone who just doesn't believe that Nicola entered the water in a tragic accident, surely you don't want the police to make statements that further stir up what is becoming an absolute social media circus?

Even though there is zero evidence or witnesses to say she was anywhere near the river or her dog. Any evidence could of been tidied up or compromised in the first few days especially the 1 hour and 20 mins unaccounted for

 

[Night Shift]

"Nikki would never give up on us ever. She wouldn't give up on anybody. And we're not gonna ever give up on her like, we're going to find her." Paul Ansell, from link below just posted on BBC

Poor man, I really feel for him and his family.

Nicola Bulley: We are going through hell, says partner Paul Ansell

 

[OrlandoJames]

In my opinion that doesn’t make sense. You could clear that area today but the body could then move into it tomorrow.

Presumably they intend to stay there for a while.

 

[cottonweaver]

I haven't completely followed this investigation...

I notice they're searching the sea now. But has the entire 20 miles of river been searched? If not why? I know the SGI group/PF searched a one mile stretch but have the police searched the whole stretch from the bench to the sea?

Just seeing the vastness of the water from the videos near Morecambe bay today made me think it is like trying to find a needle on a barn full of hay IF she is in the water at all.

don't know if they've done the entire upstream stretch but do know that the weir is 9 miles from the sea ( and the bench is 300m from the weir)

Faulding was asked to re-do a stretch upstream after them but I guess the river experts will have said that going many miles upstream is lower probability

link for those numbers, from Riley quote here
Nicola Bulley's friends and family question police's drowning theory

'a 'large mass' could go over that weir downstream, which would present 'more complexities and challenges' as it flows out to the coast nine miles away at Fleetwood.
( weir) .....divides the river between tidal and non-tidal.'

 

[Andreee]

I don't like to be that person that goes over already well known facts from the investigation, but I havent scene where search dogs were used at all? And if so, what they came up with re. direction of NB?

















/

 

[FlyHigh209]

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It must be near impossible to recreate not knowing where the potential entry to the water took place + a weighted mannequin would not sink / rise like a body. Lucky they have had two expert diving / rescue teams working independently of one another on this due to circumstance.

 

[cottonweaver]

<modsnip: Quoted post was removed>

calculating Nicola's buoyancy would be very difficult because the science doesn't just involve her body weight

 

[Night Shift]

I don't like to be that person that goes over already well known facts from the investigation, but I havent scene where search dogs were used at all? And if so, what they came up with re. direction of NB?

















/

Sniffer / search dogs were used extensively at the start of the investigation as well as specialist water search dogs later.

 

[Night Shift]

calculating Nicola's buoyancy would be very difficult because the science doesn't just involve her body weight

Water temp also plays a massive part in how a (dead) body behaves in water.

Without being too gross or disrespectful, the gasses from decaying flesh will change in volume and nature depending on air temp and water temp - this will then affect whether the body floats more, or sinks, remains at mid water etc etc.

Each scenario is very different. Plus water creatures such as eels and crabs puncture the body, making the dynamics different again.

 

[poirotoupierrot]

Suddenly the 'window' is publically expanded to c. 2 hours (last witness sighting in Top Field - PA arriving on the scene), which is EXACTLY what I was trying to explain the other day when my post got angry reactions and was deleted for being speculation. I am relieved that this has now - finally! - been acknowledged. It should, IMO, have been right from the outset, as it potentially opens up a whole lot of other possible avenues to be pursued.

Police identify critical two hours after Nicola Bulley disappearance

The crucial gap of time between when Ms Bulley vanished and when authorities were called could have the answers as police identify three key blindspots in the area.

www.express.co.uk

Yep - you and me and a few others the other day...it was fairly flimsy stuff to say she disappeared in 15 mins wasn't it? But I get that they can also be playing cat-and-mouse with a potential killer. Make them complacent, see what they do. Difficulty is, I worry if time was of the essence then and I'm not sure it will be now, I'm really sad to say. Just got to hope there's some possibility none of us have thought of, that Nicola is alive and well somewhere.

 

[infinit]

Yep - you and me and a few others the other day...it was fairly flimsy stuff to say she disappeared in 15 mins wasn't it? But I get that they can also be playing cat-and-mouse with a potential killer. Make them complacent, see what they do. Difficulty is, I worry if time was of the essence then and I'm not sure it will be now, I'm really sad to say. Just got to hope there's some possibility none of us have thought of, that Nicola is alive and well somewhere.

I mean from the last sighting (assuming it's legit) to when the phone was found (assuming that's legit) is a very specific period of time. If whatever happened hadn't already occurred by the time the phone was found and she was no longer with her dog then when did it?

EDIT: I'd be curious of if they have sightings of the dog tied up.