Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #12

[Mr X]

So was the search of the River completely unfounded and just based on the fact a phone and a dog harness were found on or near a bench which happened to be close to a small river ??

This seems odd. Maybe it is the normal response but it seems to me they would need a reason to mobilise such equipment.

Ah. OK. Would the police have acted on an anonymous but very likely to be true tipoff by someone who saw what happened but would rather remain anonymous? IMO if the person making the anonymous report was able to do description then perhaps they would take it seriously.

Otherwise there IMO must be something personal the police know about.

 

[29 Acacia Road]

Well he was included in the ch5 documentary with Dan Walker so i would say yes.

That doesn't mean anything other than he was invited to appear on the show. Only Peter Faulding has been publicly invited and thanked by the family, not MWT.

 

[Furore]

well at least someone is trying to find answers, backed by NBs family!

Tbh the last person I’d want to spend any time on or give info to is someone doing a load of media interviews. Imagine he started spouting off about the SI in interviews, the poor SI would get so much abuse online and in person and be unable to do the day to day job which is finding Nicola, not providing the DM with content IMO.given the abuse to witnesses and local counsellors etc I don’t think Lancs police will be publicising anything personal in the investigation. As much as comms has broken down it seems bilateral.

 

[Truthfinder01]

That doesn't mean anything other than he was invited to appear on the show. Only Peter Faulding has been publicly invited and thanked by the family, not MWT.

Ok doke

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Apologies then, I thought you were implying that doctors, nurses and police were subpar and not as effective as portrayed on television.

I hope I'm not speaking out of turn by answering for Observe_dont_absorb, but I think what they were talking about was the Silent Witness style protrayal of public servants. Forensic pathologists do a crucial and difficult job... but they're not super sleuths who race around solving every case. Television gives a very unrealistic portrayal of what the role of different public servants actually is.

 

[Loobyloo]

What do you mean there is no evidence that NB was on the bench that day? Can you link me that please?

<snipped for focus>

How can there be a link to something that doesn't exist? No evidence of her being on the bench has been reported.

 

[Allabouttrial]

They also said they had sensitive information to back their working hypothesis. IMO the question relating to medical issues was asked more broadly i.e. daily medication for a medical issue, nothing to do with mental health issues.

Make of it what you will.

---

Reporter - Are there any other factors with Nicola that may have contributed to the situation? Was she ill or was she taking any medication for any underlying medical conditions?

Superintendent - We're not considering... we've clearly considered the whole picture, but that is not relevant at this time, no, not at all.

Source

---

 

[WAWAW]

I don't follow your logic.

The police from day 1 have believed it was an accidental drowning and focused on that part of the river. If at 9.20 she put the phone on the bench and 9.33 the dog was found on its own then there's a 13 minute window for the accident. If the person didn't see her in the water at 9.33 then she must have drowned somewhere else. Note assuming here the water is 2 feet deep and slow moving which experts have indicated to be the case

 

[Davieson]

I hope I'm not speaking out of turn by answering for Observe_dont_absorb, but I think what they were talking about was the Silent Witness style protrayal of public servants. Forensic pathologists do a crucial and difficult job... but they're not super sleuths who race around solving every case. Television gives a very unrealistic portrayal of what the role of different public servants actually is.

Television gives a distort view of most things. Sadly most people don't recognise this

 

[Furore]

I hope I'm not speaking out of turn by answering for Observe_dont_absorb, but I think what they were talking about was the Silent Witness style protrayal of public servants. Forensic pathologists do a crucial and difficult job... but they're not super sleuths who race around solving every case. Television gives a very unrealistic portrayal of what the role of different public servants actually is.

Do you know/worked with any?

Anyway I don’t want to detract from NB.

This is a fabulous local tourism article describing the wyre in great detail from its undercurrents as it meets the sea and clarifies that it is tidal below the weir Explore the River Wyre from source to sea • with Visit Fleetwood

 

[JuicyLucy]

Yes I am sure.

A poster above suggests that the LE on one or the press announcements was asked if the missing person had medical issues and they said no she didn't.

Just checking I'm understanding you.

You said:

Surely this would be a pretty serious flag as it is well known to be followed up by successful suicide.

So you are sure that suicidal ideation leads to successful completed suicide. In how many cases? All of them? Most of them? Over what time frame? Within 28 days? Over a lifetime? And are we only talking about people who express their suicidal feelings verbally to someone else, or anyone who has ever had private thoughts of suicide? (And how would we know?)

Do you see the problem with bold assertions that masquerade as "well known" facts, when they come without any terms of reference or any evidence?

To reiterate, there is almost no justification for NB's (hypothetical) MH history to have steered the investigation significantly as a standalone fact, and none for releasing any such information.

IMO

 

[tallmansix]

It's for keyless entry. So you walk up to you car and it's already unlocked. This happens by the fob and car constantly broadcasting, and when close enough the car unlocks. I've had a car stolen because of this technology!!

"...my car has “keyless entry” meaning it opens if I touch the handle and I have the key fob in my pocket and I can also lock it by touching the handle with the fob in my pocket. If you have keyless entry and/or keyless ignition, then the key fob is constantly transmitting a code and then changes its code after an interaction with the car receiver. Many times, I have in inadvertently left the fob inside the car and touched the handle to lock the car. It won’t lock. It knows that the fob is INSIDE the car and not in my pocket. How does it know? Answer: the car has multiple antennae around the car and uses those antennae to triangulate the location of the fob and thus the fob only works when it’s in the appropriate location (outside the car to lock it and unlock it and inside the car to start and operate the car)."

How Do Key Fobs Work?

Key fobs for remotely locking/unlocking car doors are standard equipment at this point and keyless ignitions using key fob recognition is now standard in over 60% of new car models according to Edmonds. Future generations won’t know that we used to use actual keys to unlock and start our cars...

www.theifod.com

This isn't correct, the car key fob is NOT constantly transmitting.

Instead, it is the car that constantly transmits, the key fob just listens in order to preserve battery life. When it detects a signal from the car it is paired with, it will respond with an encrypted code and if it is correct, the car will unlock.

I know you linked to an article that mentioned it but it is wrong.

Smart key - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"The key becomes activated if it is sufficiently close and it transmits its ID back to the vehicle via RF (Radio frequency >300 MHz) to a receiver located in the vehicle. If the key has the correct ID, the PASE module unlocks the vehicle."

In terms of usefulness to this case, then in theory somebody could build a transmitter that transmits exactly the same encrypted codes as NB's car and literally walk around until it got a response. The key would only answer if the transmitter used to search was transmitting the exact same codes as NB's car, otherwise, it would ignore an incorrect code. This would need Mercedes techs to build such a thing.

If the key has been in the river for this long then unlikely it is still working. If it is buried underground, the signal strength might not be enough for it to respond to.

Typically remote unlock only occurs within about 10 feet of the vehicle even though the transmitted signal travels much further (maybe up to 500ft as per other posts) but both the car and the key measure the signal strength to determine how close the key is before making an unlock decision.

So depending on the technology in use on that particular keyless entry, the key may only respond when the signal is of specific strength even though it can detect a signal from much further away - and therefore might need to be 10ft or less from a transmitter before it responds, closer if underground.

In other words, a needle in a haystack finding the car keys.

 

[UKjester]

I still think moving NB’s phones and dog gear could be seen as a decoy. A good way to move focus from where she may have met trouble.
The argument to this however is that should that be the case you would expect the phone records/movements to highlight a period of standstill somewhere other than the bench before the phone came to a stop at 9:20. I also expect the streaming of the Teams call would offer better accuracy during the 30 minute period rather than the phone pinging every so often.

Regardless of that why is there no traceable sent? This would suggest a water entry however could there have been a water exit on the other side? especially if the river bank was easier to climb?
NB in obvious need of help and wet could have met someone offering help who wasn’t the Good Samaritan she hoped. This could allow her to be guided away from the area perhaps to circle back around to get Willow and her phone. The church may have been the obvious place if she was in distress.

 

[Furore]

The police from day 1 have believed it was an accidental drowning and focused on that part of the river. If at 9.20 she put the phone on the bench and 9.33 the dog was found on its own then there's a 13 minute window for the accident. If the person didn't see her in the water at 9.33 then she must have drowned somewhere else. Note assuming here the water is 2 feet deep and slow moving which experts have indicated to be the case

It is only two feet at the edges, it reaches 4 metres in the middle, hence the warning sign for deep water at the bench. Levels also vary by time and date - PF’s video was over a week after NB’a disappearance.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

This is what interests me.... How would this shift from a missing persons case to a criminal investigation without some evidence? Is lack of a body sufficient to enable that change if approach?

I guess if LE gained some form of information / evidence being found or coming out - ie some electronic intelligence, a credible witness statement, some type of audio/video capture, a physical finding of a related object, someone speaking up or crumbling? Sometimes people start to realise things over time and become aware they've seen or heard something pertinent.

It's strange case, I have even started to wonder if people looking like fishermen could be armed assassins and why anyone would assassinate NB!?

 

[Allabouttrial]

---

14TH FEB.

Two people have been arrested for allegedly sending malicious messages to Wyre Council members over the disappearance of Nicola Bulley.

Lancashire Police said it received reports of the messages at the weekend, which led to the arrest of a 49-year-old man from Manchester on suspicion of malicious communications offences.

He has since been released on bail, pending further enquiries, until 12 May.

A 20-year-old woman from Oldham has also since been arrested on suspicion of malicious communications offences and she remains in police custody.

Lancashire Police said enquiries are ongoing.

---

Nicola Bulley: Two people arrested on suspicion of malicious communications over missing dog walker

Lancashire Police received reports of a number of malicious messages sent to council members at the weekend in relation to the missing mother-of-two.

news.sky.com

 

[Furore]

It is only two feet at the edges, it reaches 4 metres in the middle, hence the warning sign for deep water at the bench. Levels also vary by time and date - PF’s video was over a week after NB’a disappearance.

Source: Stretch of river where Nicola Bulley vanished is ‘notoriously dangerous’

 

[Davieson]

---

14TH FEB.

Two people have been arrested for allegedly sending malicious messages to Wyre Council members over the disappearance of Nicola Bulley.

Lancashire Police said it received reports of the messages at the weekend, which led to the arrest of a 49-year-old man from Manchester on suspicion of malicious communications offences.

He has since been released on bail, pending further enquiries, until 12 May.

A 20-year-old woman from Oldham has also since been arrested on suspicion of malicious communications offences and she remains in police custody.

Lancashire Police said enquiries are ongoing.

---

Nicola Bulley: Two people arrested on suspicion of malicious communications over missing dog walker

Lancashire Police received reports of a number of malicious messages sent to council members at the weekend in relation to the missing mother-of-two.

news.sky.com

Why do people do this sort of thing ? What are their mind processes, assuming they have a function mind.

 

[Mr X]

Just checking I'm understaning you.

And are we only talking about people who express their suicidal feelings verbally to someone else, or anyone who has ever had private thoughts of suicide? (And how would we know?)

Sorry I think I probably used the wrong language although what I was referring to is part of the ideation process.

I wasn't talking about people who have had suicidal thoughts or what they may have told others about it. That's not serious IMO.

I was referring to where someone carries out activities which are the first steps in a suicide but they do not complete the act. Possibly a better term would be attempted suicide.

Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't talking about people having suicidal thoughts.
(Edit to tidy up quoted text)

 

[Awaywego]

Just checking I'm understanding you.

You said:


So you are sure that suicidal ideation leads to successful completed suicide. In how many cases? All of them? Most of them? Over what time frame? Within 28 days? Over a lifetime? And are we only talking about people who express their suicidal feelings verbally to someone else, or anyone who has ever had private thoughts of suicide? (And how would we know?)

Do you see the problem with bold assertions that masquerade as "well known" facts, when they come without any terms of reference or any evidence?

To reiterate, there is almost no justification for NB's (hypothetical) MH history to have steered the investigation significantly as a standalone fact, and none for releasing any such information.

IMO

Agree. 'Well known to be followed up by completed suicide' is totally overblowing the reality.
I'm too tired to look up stats now, but the large majority of people who experience suicidal ideation will not successfully complete suicide. I've worked in mh for 20+ years, with literally thousands of people, the majority of the people I work with experience suicidal ideation, I've lost two clients to suicide within that time.

That's not to say this isn't the case with Nicola, or that the police don't know something about her risk profile that we don't which makes it much more likely. IMO I think they likely do know something which places her in the river, although I suspect an accident is more likely than a suicide, particularly in the case of having her (by all reported accounts) very loved dog with her at the time. But if the police assumed that every death that occurs to someone who has experienced suicidal ideation at some point was a suicide they would IMO have little to no crime at all to deal with it's such a common experience.