Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #12

[GTB72]

Way too much risk involved in that scenario for me.

We still have no evidence of an abduction or that NB has done a Reggie Perrin, just theories. Some believable, some wacky. We have though evidence that she went into the water, albeit circumstantial.

 

[Mr X]

AFAIK, it has never been mentioned that the harness was wet but whether dog was wet has been subject to huge debate and discussion (the dog was dry, bone dry even). The harness was on the floor midway between the bench and the river, as per press released diagrams. I personally assume it was not wet or that would involve it having been in the water and then come back out again which would be quite some feat bearing in mind the dog was dry but maybe. The ground would be damp as per British winter, cold frosty day. This case is so crazy I'll believe anything can be revealed :/

My theory was that the harness ended up in the river and the missing person went to get it back and while doing so she accidentally fell in. After falling in the obvious thing would be to throw the harness onto the side so you have both hands. I mentioned this a while ago. It is a perfectly logical scene. The person in the water then attempts to get out and finds it difficult and gets into serious problem in the deep hole area and drowns and then the body sinks.

I can't see any flaws in this theory unless the dog harness is proved to have been dry when found. Or bone dry even.

ETA I would not rule in or out the possibility of an altercation where the other party has thrown the harness in the water out of frustration. DOGS MUST BE KEPT ON LEADS. DEEP WATER.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Wasn't the dog found running between the bench and the gate?

Reportedly so, but it's worth noting that the bench and the gate are right next to each other. Willow wouldn't have been running more than a few feet backwards and forwards.

 

[Cluella DeVille]

Frugal compared to which other UK cases though? I personally feel the police have shared a lot and given regular updates. For a missing person's case whom police strongly suspect the victim hasn't met with foul play, I don't think I've seen this much info. being disclosed before.

In this context I'm not drawing comparisons to other cases. Certainly in initial stages it was their own admission they had no evidence to support NB being in the river yet they persisted with the theory without any revelation for maintaining confidence in that focus. Then proceeding to say neither the public nor PF were privy to the full facts. Asking the public to look out for a series of items, no images released corroborating what these things actually looked like. A confusing timeline, again without images to provide clarity. Their updates, though well and fluently executed, have really not reflected progress IMO, to the point where family and friends have not been in agreement and felt compelled to add unreleased elements themselves.
It's not my intention to criticise LE, but there has appeared to be a reticent desire to inform

 

[kittythehare]

Think so too, Willow would lead anyone who came along directly to her if she had fallen in the river. Willow is a well trained springer spaniel, a gundog, they are known for their retrieval skills, it's in their breed nature. She would howl and bark like crazy at the point where NB should have fallen into the river.
But IMO NB didn't go in the river, if she had, she would have almost certainly been found by the diving experts by now.
She has either been abducted or she left her own life of her own free will.
My bet is she's been abducted, it's a tight time window, but there's at least a 20 minute window of opportunity for it to have occurred.

She could be in the river if abducted too though. I believe the river search is justifiable.

 

[Grouse]

Not in today's world. Witnesses don't think twice about going to SM or media with their "stories".

Why would police acknowledge a witness to the general public??

Not sure what is meant by "acknowledge a witness to the general public?" I meant acknowledge to the person themselves ?! If that had happened there probably wouldn't have been a story in the Express about them taking 9 days to get back to him. I don't think this witness did go running straight to the media, he only did it when he got no response.

 

[GeorgeFormby]

Just my opinion - I don't think the things PA mentioned about NB being organised that morning, or more organised (can't remember what he said). NB works in sales, she may have had a good few days in the office, feeling upbeat, whatever. If I have a good week, I sometimes go the extra mile in the morning, maybe do a quick tidy up as the kettle boils, or bring the empty milk bottles out, whatever. I personally think that something has happened, an altercation, and its gone horribly wrong and a perpetrator has panicked and removed NB from the area and perhaps put the phone on the bench. I think somebody local, not planned, not a sex crime, just something that went really badly wrong. I hope I am wrong, and again, just opinion. Doing a runner would be a such a big move, and then having to see the endless press coverage, I think NB would cave in, even if she has not committed a crime by going missing. If we assumed that her relationship with PA was on the rocks (no evidence, and doesn't seem likely) to leave ones children behind is something that very few women would do, even mothers with serious addiction problems don't want to leave their children.

 

[Enigmacode]

20 mins is plenty of time to snatch someone away. Only takes a couple of mins. Surely you just wait til the coast is clear and then strike.

Yes, it's more than enough time. It's entirely plausible.
What I don't understand is how adamant the police have been that a 3rd party wasn't involved. Almost as if they are misdirecting the investigation.
An attractive, 5ft 3" woman disappears into thin air and the police don't consider the possibility of her being abducted?!?!
Women being snatched off the street to be sexually violated, murdered and dumped is hardly a rare event.
There's something fishy about this case IMO.

 

[cottonweaver]

I don't. think I would say that their strategy is poor, but I don't think that their communication has been the best

genuine question, just out of interest, but where do you read or hear what they have comm'd, when you're reading or watching stuff about this case?

 

[Beckxsy]

My theory was that the harness ended up in the river and the missing person went to get it back and while doing so she accidentally fell in. After falling in the obvious thing would be to throw the harness onto the side so you have both hands. I mentioned this a while ago. It is a perfectly logical scene. The person in the water then attempts to get out and finds it difficult and gets into serious problem in the deep hole area and drowns and then the body sinks.

I can't see any flaws in this theory unless the dog harness is proved to have been dry when found. Or bone dry even.

ETA I would not rule in or out the possibility of an altercation where the other party has thrown the harness in the water out of frustration. DOGS MUST BE KEPT ON LEADS. DEEP WATER.

That's a scenario in my head also.

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

Yes but the question was why didn't the police engage him, you are answering a different question that addresses whether he decided to do it for the free publicity when contacted by the family about a case that by that time was very big news

I'm not answering a different question, I responded to the statement "he needs to make a living". I explained how this publicity helps him make a living. I may comment on whatever parts of a post I like and my work background is media/PR so that's the part I commented on.

 

[keef]

Just my opinion - I don't think the things PA mentioned about NB being organised that morning, or more organised (can't remember what he said). NB works in sales, she may have had a good few days in the office, feeling upbeat, whatever. If I have a good week, I sometimes go the extra mile in the morning, maybe do a quick tidy up as the kettle boils, or bring the empty milk bottles out, whatever. I personally think that something has happened, an altercation, and its gone horribly wrong and a perpetrator has panicked and removed NB from the area and perhaps put the phone on the bench. I think somebody local, not planned, not a sex crime, just something that went really badly wrong. I hope I am wrong, and again, just opinion. Doing a runner would be a such a big move, and then having to see the endless press coverage, I think NB would cave in, even if she has not committed a crime by going missing. If we assumed that her relationship with PA was on the rocks (no evidence, and doesn't seem likely) to leave ones children behind is something that very few women would do, even mothers with serious addiction problems don't want to leave their children.

You "don't think the things PA mentioned about NB being organised that morning" what?

NB doesn't work in sales, she's a mortgage & protection adviser.

NB does not work in an office.

"To leave ones (sic) children behind is something that very few women would do" - it could easily be temporary.

 

[Bethan]

DBM

 

[cottonweaver]

Yes but the question was why didn't the police engage him, you are answering a different question that addresses whether he decided to do it for the free publicity when contacted by the family about a case that by that time was very big news

because they already have the North West Underwater & Marine group ( police specialist group which works across whole of North West and North Wales, established since the 1970s & who already have SSSonar)

once the family saw him on TV ( where he was saying that he could conclusively eliminate NB from ever having gone in the river) the family contacted him.
I can't possibly know this but my opinion is, that LancsPolice then found themselves in an awkward position. PF constantly in the media, family putting great faith in him. Imagine the hullabaloo in the media if LP had rejected his offer?

 

[Normanly]

Why would the friend say it was normal to take the harness off the dog if it wasn't?

Unless the suggestion is that the friend is a party to the disappearance why would she say that?

There is at least one photo of the dog without the harness so we know that it did happen

JMO

I have also been going with the assumption that it was normal for the harness to be removed.

However, there does appear to be just as many photos of Willow with the harness on too.

Someone in an earlier thread also made a good point regarding how it would be cumbersome to carry in one hand and have her mobile on a teams call in the other if she was on loud speaker and not using earphones (which there has been no mention of from the police or family).

There was also the lead which may have been in her pocket but again quite a bulky item as I think they use a retractable one looking at Facebook photos from previous walks

Nothing makes sense in this case!!

 

[GeorgeFormby]

You "don't think the things PA mentioned about NB being organised that morning" what?

NB doesn't work in sales, she's a mortgage & protection adviser.

NB does not work in an office.

"To leave ones (sic) children behind is something that very few women would do" - it could easily be temporary.

There was something said about how NB had already made the breakfasts, something along those lines.

NB will be on commission for mortgages that go through, this is how it works. Mortgage advisors will have targets to hit, they're not just giving advice out for a wage, its not how it works, nothing like that does. If you engage an independent financial advisor for a loan, mortgage, investment etc. they will be getting some sort of fee, each time a deal closes.

My office comment was more about work, rather than the physical space where one works. I work from home, I sometimes say "good week at the office", but my office is my home.

RE leaving her children, of course, it could be temporary, it just seems difficult to comprehend, though not totally impossible, I just think very very unlikely, again, just opinion.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

<modsnip: Quoted post was removed> Somewhat true as per the screaming or struggling -but- how do we know there wasn't any? If there was no-one around to hear? That argument works both ways for the drowning theory with only one caveat - that if she silently drowned then NB was knocked unconscious when falling as otherwise falling into water and struggling until death would likely be quite turbulent and may involve a fair bit of noise.

But regarding no dropped items etc in terms of a possible abduction - there were many left items - 'scattered' one might even say = one dog (roaming off harness, dry), one harness (on floor), one mobile phone (on floor still logged into work call).

I hate to think of this but if someone had surprise attacked at N from behind and smashed her with a blunt object she could have been left reeling and dazed, dropped all her stuff, maybe put up a bit of a fight... but then what? Thrown in the river for dead seems a bit unlikely since no sign of her body has been found. If someone took her, how did they prevent the dog following? Also surely requires two people to act swiftly but that's a rare event as most predators operate alone as we know on WS.

<modsnip>

 

[EvaP]

And how would one go about this endeavour without being seen or heard?

I think that’s what he’s trying to say. It would be an impossible task

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

D.B.M.

 

[PS8800]

Think so too, Willow would lead anyone who came along directly to her if she had fallen in the river. Willow is a well trained springer spaniel, a gundog, they are known for their retrieval skills, it's in their breed nature. She would howl and bark like crazy at the point where NB should have fallen into the river.
But IMO NB didn't go in the river, if she had, she would have almost certainly been found by the diving experts by now.
She has either been abducted or she left her own life of her own free will.
My bet is she's been abducted, it's a tight time window, but there's at least a 20 minute window of opportunity for it to have occurred.

Abducted for what? Just wondering about this theory.