Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #13

[Enigmacode]

Questions I would have asked:

1. Why have you not released the CCTV you have of Nicola? Or can you just confirm for the record that - aside from her own Ring doorbell footage - there is no CCTV of NB on the morning she disappeared?

2. You said there is no evidence of third party involvement or criminality. There is also no evidence of her entering the river, correct? Just to clarify then, what specifically has caused you to speculate that it is more likely she is in the river than chose to leave the area for any number of reasons?

3. I understand that you would not want to reveal specific personal vulnerabilities, but why did you leave it 3 weeks to reveal that NB was high-risk? Wouldn't have doing so increased useful public involvement in those critical early days whilst dampening unhelpful speculuation? Do you regret not releasing this information sooner?

You should have been at that press conference! : )

 

[SanT88]

IMO there’s still a possibility she is/was in the river. Just because so much attention has been focused on the bench/harness/phone location does mean that’s where she may have entered. And IMO she entered passed the weir potentially chasing after the dog bolting being one possibility.
The police today referring to ‘vulnerabilities’ emphasising ‘specific’ and inferring more than one, suggests to me that there was quite a bit going on in her life. If for instance she is diabetic, then I can’t see why they wouldn’t state that so IMO there are things they know of (or previous things haven happened) that were deeply concerning.
Googling the police misper risk assessment template (each force appears different yet similar) there are lots and lots of potential reasons for this high risk classification.

From the tone of the presser today I inferred that they believe that this may have been intentional; but IMO the location doesn’t seem entirely right for someone who may be choosing such a path. But then again, it might.

 

[Mr X]

The only thing that came to my mind was that since he believed she wasn't in the river, he either thought it was an abduction or she left of her own accord, so maybe he thought if she just walked out, she might be with friends/somebody else she knows locally or nearby and they might know something if she'd contacted them? That's the only way I could make sense of it imo.

Possibly symptoms of denial? It must be an incredibly difficult path he is walking along at the moment. Horrible.

 

[doghandler]

On the first page it mentions counter terrorism officers searching on land. Is this just referring to their search experience/ thoroughness as opposed to their specialist? No possibility that terror is involved?

In the forces that my SAR work has been with - trained police search officers, and PolSA’s are responsible for and trained in all search-related activities. That could be explosives, evidence gathering or misper searches. I am guessing this is true across the country. (But happy to be corrected!)

 

[PeachUK]

I wonder if Nicola was suffering from an terminal illness and they hadn’t told the girls, why is why the family wouldn’t want to make it public that she had vulnerabilities? She did look very gaunt in the stills that were released.
Just my musings.
Poor Nicola and family.

Her father said she had no health issues

Missing Nicola Bulley made plans the night before she vanished

Her parents asked police "how can you know" she hasn't been taken

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk

 

[Mr X]

.

From the tone of the presser today I inferred that they believe that this may have been intentional; but IMO the location doesn’t seem entirely right for someone who may be choosing such a path. But then again, it might.

The anglers call it a deep hole and there is a sign on the tree saying DEEP WATER in red text. IMO this is a clue.

 

[Furore]

I remember someone quoting that Nicola would "do anything for that dog." I very much doubt she would choose to leave it alone in the field. If she wanted to take her own life there are numerous ways to go about it without it affecting the safety of a dog which she treated "like a third child."

Well she (Willow) was in a contained place in a popular walking spot with lots of familiar locals. Any disappearance puts strain and heartache on loved ones including her children, so any setting with a planned absence already has that involvement, I don’t actually think the setting was dangerous for Willow.

 

[Liverpool86]

Th

If that was the case, they wouldn't have come to the current working hypothesis of no 3rd party involvement surely

The only reason that has been profusely expressed is because they lack hard evidence. Like physical proof

 

[Kor_Phaeron]

Also, if there was some form of conflict or sudden incident, then the person could feel terrible but they would yell for help and ring for emergency services immediately wouldn't they?

Not necessarily. It's all hypothetical, but if the owner of the dog that spooked Willow was also off the lead, that person might immediately want to save their own skin than raise an alarm.
People very often resort to type in high stress situations. Hit and Run road accidents are a relatively common example.

The hypothetical witness may have high-tailed it out of there and thought nothing more of it (a shallow, slow flowing river likely didn't present much immediate risk had they witnessed NB fall in) until NB was reported missing, at which point their involvement would very likely scare them off offering any kind of contribution/statement.

Again, this is all hypothetical. But IMO something crucial has taken place as NB was in the process of reattaching the harness. The key is figuring out what that crucial incident was.

 

[SuperEye]

NB's FB has changed. Everything deleted except this...make of that what you will. JMO

 

[AnalyticalMind]

The specific vulnerabilities could be MH related hence wanting them to remain private but still point to a non intentional drowning, there are some MH diagnosis and/or medication that might (at a specific time in their illness) lead someone to be more prone to poor decision making, risk taking behaviour, misjudging risks etc.

There are many factors which could influence someone who has "vulnerabilities", and you are totally correct with the comment regarding certain treatments. It's well known those treatments can have, and have had in many situations, catastrophic side effects regarding choices people make. If this has been the case I'm devastated for her as this issue is something I hold close to my head having had those treatments affect me adversely in a way which impacted my whole life from them, till now, almost 20 years later. It's also an issue I've raised awareness on, and campaigned for more "informed consent" regarding.
Im being quite vague here but can't explain further as it would possibly reveal my identity.
(I have followed every thread on here since it began and as both and a mother I hoped with every fibre of my being she would be found safe and well, every hour I check to see if there's any news as she's constantly on my mind, as are her little girls. I know the likelihood of this is decreasing as time passes. It's just a horrendous situation for everyone involved, and incredibly frustrating for us on here, all wishing she was found, so for her family it must be unbearable.)

 

[CuriousObserver1]

I assume so, but does anyone know if they have confirmed the body of water behind the field where she was found (ie not the river) has been searched? The body of water can be seen in the map in this article: Police searching for Nicola Bulley insist no sign of 'third party' )


Also if, as implied, she was vulnerable which can sadly imply possibly suicidal, have all the trees in the area been checked as I know sadly, bodies have been found years later up hidden from view in trees

 

[wrpd]

Sorry if already posted. From the Lancashire Police live video earlier today:

When asked about the vulnerabilities, the Det Supt said (at 25:50)

"I'm not going to go into the details about those individual vulnerabilities, I've asked you to respect the family who are going through unimaginable pain and distress at this moment. But those vulnerabilities based our decision making in terms of erm grading Nicola as high risk and have continued to form part of my investigation throughout"

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=528436422711183

 

[cottonweaver]

NB's FB has changed. Everything deleted except this...make of that what you will. JMO
View attachment 403028

well spotted - noticing her FB deletions

The SIO just said at the presser that digital investigators were working on her account and that if people/media saw changes to her SM accounts to not assume that was NB online but that LE were on her accounts

( me paraphrasing, not a verbatim account)

 

[Dowls90]

Th

The only reason that has been profusely expressed is because they lack hard evidence. Like physical proof

The same could be said about entering the river though.

 

[Italia]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed>
I actually think this could refer to any number of things, families, and relationships, are complicated. He so adamant she is not in river but also that she wouldn’t leave kids dog etc , is this wishful thinking ? Even with such troubles people carry on with the usual stuff , texts to pals and appointments etc doesn’t mean there hasn’t been a recent trigger behind the scenes that the police are keeping in mind, and did so very soon after she went missing

 

[Liverpool86]

Well she (Willow) was in a contained place in a popular walking spot with lots of familiar locals. Any disappearance puts strain and heartache on loved ones including her children, so any setting with a planned absence already has that involvement, I don’t actually think the setting was dangerous for Willow.

Personally, and JMO here - being a dog owner who sees my dog as my fourth child, I would not end my life in a river in view of my dog who I KNOW would be highly likely to follow me in, also endangering my dog. Also, LE stressed that the dog was running between the bench and gate, expressing that the dog could have easily left through the gate - so it wasn’t exactly contained.

 

[Nikynoo]

Questions I would have asked:

1. Why have you not released the CCTV you have of Nicola? Or can you just confirm for the record that - aside from her own Ring doorbell footage - there is no CCTV of NB on the morning she disappeared?

2. You said there is no evidence of third party involvement or criminality. There is also no evidence of her entering the river, correct? Just to clarify then, what specifically has caused you to speculate that it is more likely she is in the river than chose to leave the area for any number of reasons?

3. I understand that you would not want to reveal specific personal vulnerabilities, but why did you leave it 3 weeks to reveal that NB was high-risk? Wouldn't have doing so increased useful public involvement in those critical early days whilst dampening unhelpful speculuation? Do you regret not releasing this information sooner?

in answer to your questions and from what I can remember of the press conference and this case generally.

1. Perhaps they have no CCTV of N other than the home CCTV. The DS stated that from witness statements and the telephony of N's phone, they were confident of her whereabouts. Further the DS stated that there were no CCTV sightings of N leaving the area. If there is CCTV, say at the school, then this would not be relevant or add anything to the investigation as it would only show N leaving the school grounds.

2. Good question - but there is no evidence that N left the area. However, they are still reviewing dash cam footage. My understanding is that N could only leave the way she entered without showing up on CCTV, hence the request for dash cam footage AND if she did leave that way she would need to turn left on exit (back over the bridge and towards the school) as to turn right would have meant that N would have been seen on CCTV.

3. My understanding is that there has already been discussion around N being a high risk misper in earlier threads and I can find this news report indication 'high risk', so it is no 'new' news.https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-bulley-search-high-risk-investigation-will-have-quickly-escalated-former-senior-detective-says-12801731

 

[kittythehare]

NB's FB has changed. Everything deleted except this...make of that what you will. JMO
View attachment 403028

The police stated they would be taking control of it.
I can think of a million reasons why this is a good idea.

 

[Agatha3]

'She would never have left her children/dog' 'She was so happy' these comments make it quite clear how little people understand about mental illness. People do leave their children and their dogs, families and they do take their lives. Which is why suicide is such a tragedy. Imo

Some people actually think they will be helping their families by not being there. You can have happy family life, lovely friends and relatives but still have deep anxieties about the future.