I will copy and paste a very rough draft reply that took me about 2 minutes to type out when my friend asked me over chat yesterday morning….. please understand THIS WAS PRE THE DISCLOSURE OF THE MENOPAUSE / ALCOHOL issues and VULNERABILITIES as stated in the press conference later that day and it was a rushed reply and not a a professional reply -see below
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Occam’s razor says that she is in the water however I’m led to believe that it is only shallow water at the part where she would have fallen in (18”) unless she was launched in by someone forcibly pushing her and she landed in the middle of the river which is 2/3 feet deep ?
But the river is not a fast flower river according to one expert report and yet another says that it is?
Also, the Police college at Bramshill have a directory of expertise in every possible and conceivable subject matter that you could think of.
Therefore, it would be easily calculated as to the different locations that she may be if in the water , as to where about. This will be done using physics and mathematical equations and taking different data for example:
1. Calculating how far her body would be carried by the water (if at all) if she just fell or slipped in, based upon her weight and clothing worn and the flow of the river and the depth of the river and the time since she ingressed .
2. Another calculation would be based upon the same data but adding in the temp of the water and rate of decomposition and then at what stage, the body is likely to rise to the top of the water as the gasses in the body go through the putrefaction stages.
3. All these calculations will be applied but changing the data variables so adding in the fact that she was pushed into the water as opposed to slipped so they would use all the same data but this time using the submersion of her body in 2/3ft water as opposed to 18”.
They will just keep alternating all the different variables of the data to give you an idea as to how far her body may have travelled and wether it has reached the estuary or sea .
Having said that , if I were in charge of the investigation , I would recreate a fall into the water at the depth of a slip into
It at a depth of 18” and then conversely at a depth of 2/3 feet using a weighted dummy to the weight of her and dressed in the identical clothing that she wore on the crucial day and doing so in the same weather conditions and same water flow rate as the day she disappeared .
I have concerns about tunnel vision by the SIO but as an insider, what leaps out to me is that after the first 48 hrs of this being a missing person from home ( MFH ) this SHOULD HAVE ABSOLUTELY BEEN DEEMED A POTENTIAL CRIME AND THEN HANDED OVER TO THE CID SIO ( me ).
That’s because the cid have the expertise and if they haven’t then they know where to get it.
It stinks to me that there is a huge communication breakdown between the Gold command of the CID and the gold command of the UNIFORM dept
There are some very important lines of enquiry which MUST be done within the initial ‘golden hours’ of the investigation and within no more than 48 hrs of the investigation being commenced.
Now for all we know, this may have had but I’m skeptical:
1. Ping phone for locations up to 30 min prior to the last known location to see if it was in fact in that same location for 30 mins or had it only arrived 5 min before? ( in other words staged….)
2. Fit bit data checked which will let you know if there was a spike in heart rate at any point before her disappearance? To ascertain if something of significant took place. Also to ascertain if she was 100% wearing it from location history because it’s been said that she was but in until she is found , we wouldn’t know for certain .
3. Ascertain who was in the area , not just that day but go back a week beforehand.
This will give you an idea if any unusual characters hanging around or any dummy run if her disappearance has been staged by herself or others .
This can be done by data dump of mobile phones in the area each day for a one week period during the specific period of 0900-0930 .
It can also be done by witnesses being asked to come forward.
4. There should have been a joint press conference with the police and her husband.
5. There should be a potential re enactment after the first week or two on the same day of the week that she allegedly went missing at the same specific time period.
6. E fit compiled of the suspicious person seen in the area recently.
7. All the occupants of the caravan park nearby to be spoken to and search warrants enacted in each caravan .
8. Marital life investigated
9. Employment position investigated
10. Medical details Investigated for potential suicide indicators
11. Mobile devices and home computers to be looked at with regards to search history, text messages, Snapchat, WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook,emails , photographs and location history informed etc
12. CCTV- we know one pertaining camera not working- since when? Fault ? Reported ?
Do a funnelled stop of all vehicles going through the main route near to the river exactly one week later on the same day and time parameters of her disappearance , ascertaining if they have dash cam and if this is a regular route and did they witness anything ?
13. Engage search parameters and send in POLSA ( expertise search)
14. Engage house to house parameters and allocate resources to complete H-H and ensure PDF’s are completed ( personal description forms of each person living at address )
15. All ports bulletin issued, passport office enquiries, Travel agents enquiries, airline manifestos checked
16. Banking of her and her husband to be viewed for anomalies
17. Foot wear cast impressions of any footprints in the soil around the bench where last seen
18. Dogs for tracking
19. DNA swabs of the harness , lead, phone etc
20. Landline call history viewed for parameters set time period ( ie 1 month preceding disappearance)
These are just off the top of my head
The actual reasons for disappearance that I would be looking at :
1. Fall into water
2.Crime - pushed into water or
3. Abduction?
4.kidnapping ?
5.Suicide?
6.Familial involvement- is there a potential history of Domestic Violence ( husband always top of the list )
7. Voluntary disappearance- ( I have a gut feeling about this ). Was she in financial trouble or under investigation at work as a mortgage advisor and broker ? Did she go for her usual dog walk the preceding day with a-backpack containing a change of clothes/coat/footwear/wig/hat/glasses and left in dense undergrowth by rear of the bench overnight.
Following daily dog walk, she replaced her outfit with disguised outfit and utilised the backpack to carry her discarded clothes?
Does she have relatives in a different part of this or another country?
Is she vulnerable in any way ?
Are there any reasons to support a voluntary disappearance?
It seems to me that all eggs are in one basket of the water and it’s not even being mentioned about the potential for suicide or voluntary disappearance……..
