Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #14

[PS8800]

I searched and couldn't find this mentioned before.
Could the water bottle she was carrying that morning be a clue that she was planning on taking an overdose?

Everytime I leave the house i take a water bottle with me. If I didnt i wouldnt drink enough because i dont like to down alot in one go.
Not sure this means much…?

 

[ginnyw]

I will copy and paste a very rough draft reply that took me about 2 minutes to type out when my friend asked me over chat yesterday morning….. please understand THIS WAS PRE THE DISCLOSURE OF THE MENOPAUSE / ALCOHOL issues and VULNERABILITIES as stated in the press conference later that day and it was a rushed reply and not a a professional reply -see below
———////———-
Occam’s razor says that she is in the water however I’m led to believe that it is only shallow water at the part where she would have fallen in (18”) unless she was launched in by someone forcibly pushing her and she landed in the middle of the river which is 2/3 feet deep ?

But the river is not a fast flower river according to one expert report and yet another says that it is?

Also, the Police college at Bramshill have a directory of expertise in every possible and conceivable subject matter that you could think of.

Therefore, it would be easily calculated as to the different locations that she may be if in the water , as to where about. This will be done using physics and mathematical equations and taking different data for example:

1. Calculating how far her body would be carried by the water (if at all) if she just fell or slipped in, based upon her weight and clothing worn and the flow of the river and the depth of the river and the time since she ingressed .

2. Another calculation would be based upon the same data but adding in the temp of the water and rate of decomposition and then at what stage, the body is likely to rise to the top of the water as the gasses in the body go through the putrefaction stages.

3. All these calculations will be applied but changing the data variables so adding in the fact that she was pushed into the water as opposed to slipped so they would use all the same data but this time using the submersion of her body in 2/3ft water as opposed to 18”.

They will just keep alternating all the different variables of the data to give you an idea as to how far her body may have travelled and wether it has reached the estuary or sea .

Having said that , if I were in charge of the investigation , I would recreate a fall into the water at the depth of a slip into
It at a depth of 18” and then conversely at a depth of 2/3 feet using a weighted dummy to the weight of her and dressed in the identical clothing that she wore on the crucial day and doing so in the same weather conditions and same water flow rate as the day she disappeared .

I have concerns about tunnel vision by the SIO but as an insider, what leaps out to me is that after the first 48 hrs of this being a missing person from home ( MFH ) this SHOULD HAVE ABSOLUTELY BEEN DEEMED A POTENTIAL CRIME AND THEN HANDED OVER TO THE CID SIO ( me ).

That’s because the cid have the expertise and if they haven’t then they know where to get it.

It stinks to me that there is a huge communication breakdown between the Gold command of the CID and the gold command of the UNIFORM dept

There are some very important lines of enquiry which MUST be done within the initial ‘golden hours’ of the investigation and within no more than 48 hrs of the investigation being commenced.

Now for all we know, this may have had but I’m skeptical:

1. Ping phone for locations up to 30 min prior to the last known location to see if it was in fact in that same location for 30 mins or had it only arrived 5 min before? ( in other words staged….)

2. Fit bit data checked which will let you know if there was a spike in heart rate at any point before her disappearance? To ascertain if something of significant took place. Also to ascertain if she was 100% wearing it from location history because it’s been said that she was but in until she is found , we wouldn’t know for certain .

3. Ascertain who was in the area , not just that day but go back a week beforehand.

This will give you an idea if any unusual characters hanging around or any dummy run if her disappearance has been staged by herself or others .

This can be done by data dump of mobile phones in the area each day for a one week period during the specific period of 0900-0930 .

It can also be done by witnesses being asked to come forward.

4. There should have been a joint press conference with the police and her husband.

5. There should be a potential re enactment after the first week or two on the same day of the week that she allegedly went missing at the same specific time period.

6. E fit compiled of the suspicious person seen in the area recently.

7. All the occupants of the caravan park nearby to be spoken to and search warrants enacted in each caravan .

8. Marital life investigated

9. Employment position investigated

10. Medical details Investigated for potential suicide indicators

11. Mobile devices and home computers to be looked at with regards to search history, text messages, Snapchat, WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook,emails , photographs and location history informed etc

12. CCTV- we know one pertaining camera not working- since when? Fault ? Reported ?
Do a funnelled stop of all vehicles going through the main route near to the river exactly one week later on the same day and time parameters of her disappearance , ascertaining if they have dash cam and if this is a regular route and did they witness anything ?

13. Engage search parameters and send in POLSA ( expertise search)

14. Engage house to house parameters and allocate resources to complete H-H and ensure PDF’s are completed ( personal description forms of each person living at address )

15. All ports bulletin issued, passport office enquiries, Travel agents enquiries, airline manifestos checked

16. Banking of her and her husband to be viewed for anomalies

17. Foot wear cast impressions of any footprints in the soil around the bench where last seen

18. Dogs for tracking

19. DNA swabs of the harness , lead, phone etc

20. Landline call history viewed for parameters set time period ( ie 1 month preceding disappearance)

These are just off the top of my head

The actual reasons for disappearance that I would be looking at :

1. Fall into water

2.Crime - pushed into water or

3. Abduction?

4.kidnapping ?

5.Suicide?

6.Familial involvement- is there a potential history of Domestic Violence ( husband always top of the list )

7. Voluntary disappearance- ( I have a gut feeling about this ). Was she in financial trouble or under investigation at work as a mortgage advisor and broker ? Did she go for her usual dog walk the preceding day with a-backpack containing a change of clothes/coat/footwear/wig/hat/glasses and left in dense undergrowth by rear of the bench overnight.

Following daily dog walk, she replaced her outfit with disguised outfit and utilised the backpack to carry her discarded clothes?
Does she have relatives in a different part of this or another country?

Is she vulnerable in any way ?

Are there any reasons to support a voluntary disappearance?

It seems to me that all eggs are in one basket of the water and it’s not even being mentioned about the potential for suicide or voluntary disappearance……..

That is so very interesting and thought-provoking and fills in what, for me, are several missing blanks. I have never understood why there was no joint press conference with the husband, or why there was no re-enactment. Your point about a potential voluntary vanishing is also extremely interesting. I hadn't thought about the possibility that NB may have hidden a bag somewhere in the vicinity of the bench. Thank you for sharing your experience and expertise on here. I rather wish you were involved in the investigation.

 

[Firstsnow4]

I will copy and paste a very rough draft reply that took me about 2 minutes to type out when my friend asked me over chat yesterday morning….. please understand THIS WAS PRE THE DISCLOSURE OF THE MENOPAUSE / ALCOHOL issues and VULNERABILITIES as stated in the press conference later that day and it was a rushed reply and not a a professional reply -see below
———////———-
Occam’s razor says that she is in the water however I’m led to believe that it is only shallow water at the part where she would have fallen in (18”) unless she was launched in by someone forcibly pushing her and she landed in the middle of the river which is 2/3 feet deep ?

But the river is not a fast flower river according to one expert report and yet another says that it is?

Also, the Police college at Bramshill have a directory of expertise in every possible and conceivable subject matter that you could think of.

Therefore, it would be easily calculated as to the different locations that she may be if in the water , as to where about. This will be done using physics and mathematical equations and taking different data for example:

1. Calculating how far her body would be carried by the water (if at all) if she just fell or slipped in, based upon her weight and clothing worn and the flow of the river and the depth of the river and the time since she ingressed .

2. Another calculation would be based upon the same data but adding in the temp of the water and rate of decomposition and then at what stage, the body is likely to rise to the top of the water as the gasses in the body go through the putrefaction stages.

3. All these calculations will be applied but changing the data variables so adding in the fact that she was pushed into the water as opposed to slipped so they would use all the same data but this time using the submersion of her body in 2/3ft water as opposed to 18”.

They will just keep alternating all the different variables of the data to give you an idea as to how far her body may have travelled and wether it has reached the estuary or sea .

Having said that , if I were in charge of the investigation , I would recreate a fall into the water at the depth of a slip into
It at a depth of 18” and then conversely at a depth of 2/3 feet using a weighted dummy to the weight of her and dressed in the identical clothing that she wore on the crucial day and doing so in the same weather conditions and same water flow rate as the day she disappeared .

I have concerns about tunnel vision by the SIO but as an insider, what leaps out to me is that after the first 48 hrs of this being a missing person from home ( MFH ) this SHOULD HAVE ABSOLUTELY BEEN DEEMED A POTENTIAL CRIME AND THEN HANDED OVER TO THE CID SIO ( me ).

That’s because the cid have the expertise and if they haven’t then they know where to get it.

It stinks to me that there is a huge communication breakdown between the Gold command of the CID and the gold command of the UNIFORM dept

There are some very important lines of enquiry which MUST be done within the initial ‘golden hours’ of the investigation and within no more than 48 hrs of the investigation being commenced.

Now for all we know, this may have had but I’m skeptical:

1. Ping phone for locations up to 30 min prior to the last known location to see if it was in fact in that same location for 30 mins or had it only arrived 5 min before? ( in other words staged….)

2. Fit bit data checked which will let you know if there was a spike in heart rate at any point before her disappearance? To ascertain if something of significant took place. Also to ascertain if she was 100% wearing it from location history because it’s been said that she was but in until she is found , we wouldn’t know for certain .

3. Ascertain who was in the area , not just that day but go back a week beforehand.

This will give you an idea if any unusual characters hanging around or any dummy run if her disappearance has been staged by herself or others .

This can be done by data dump of mobile phones in the area each day for a one week period during the specific period of 0900-0930 .

It can also be done by witnesses being asked to come forward.

4. There should have been a joint press conference with the police and her husband.

5. There should be a potential re enactment after the first week or two on the same day of the week that she allegedly went missing at the same specific time period.

6. E fit compiled of the suspicious person seen in the area recently.

7. All the occupants of the caravan park nearby to be spoken to and search warrants enacted in each caravan .

8. Marital life investigated

9. Employment position investigated

10. Medical details Investigated for potential suicide indicators

11. Mobile devices and home computers to be looked at with regards to search history, text messages, Snapchat, WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook,emails , photographs and location history informed etc

12. CCTV- we know one pertaining camera not working- since when? Fault ? Reported ?
Do a funnelled stop of all vehicles going through the main route near to the river exactly one week later on the same day and time parameters of her disappearance , ascertaining if they have dash cam and if this is a regular route and did they witness anything ?

13. Engage search parameters and send in POLSA ( expertise search)

14. Engage house to house parameters and allocate resources to complete H-H and ensure PDF’s are completed ( personal description forms of each person living at address )

15. All ports bulletin issued, passport office enquiries, Travel agents enquiries, airline manifestos checked

16. Banking of her and her husband to be viewed for anomalies

17. Foot wear cast impressions of any footprints in the soil around the bench where last seen

18. Dogs for tracking

19. DNA swabs of the harness , lead, phone etc

20. Landline call history viewed for parameters set time period ( ie 1 month preceding disappearance)

These are just off the top of my head

The actual reasons for disappearance that I would be looking at :

1. Fall into water

2.Crime - pushed into water or

3. Abduction?

4.kidnapping ?

5.Suicide?

6.Familial involvement- is there a potential history of Domestic Violence ( husband always top of the list )

7. Voluntary disappearance- ( I have a gut feeling about this ). Was she in financial trouble or under investigation at work as a mortgage advisor and broker ? Did she go for her usual dog walk the preceding day with a-backpack containing a change of clothes/coat/footwear/wig/hat/glasses and left in dense undergrowth by rear of the bench overnight.

Following daily dog walk, she replaced her outfit with disguised outfit and utilised the backpack to carry her discarded clothes?
Does she have relatives in a different part of this or another country?

Is she vulnerable in any way ?

Are there any reasons to support a voluntary disappearance?

It seems to me that all eggs are in one basket of the water and it’s not even being mentioned about the potential for suicide or voluntary disappearance……..

They need you on the case! Excellent post!

 

[Angleterre]

Probably a difficult question but Angleterre.... do you think they will find anything. I know this is distasteful but I ask this with regard to her children... I just find the thought of them going through life, never knowing, no answers etc just so terribly sad. In my own view, even if remains were to be found a funeral and a goodbye could be said. I cannot even comprehend going through life not knowing the end of my late parents... that is what really tears me up about this.

Occam’s razor states that she is in the water

Personally , I would ask Peter Faulding back to the river to do another deep dive because his strategy would have been totally different had he have been briefed about these vulnerabilities from the start .

I would have the scene re enacted in different ways by using a dummy mock up of her size and weight and height and put the exact clothes on her that she had on the day she disappeared and then when the river conditions are the same or similar to the river conditions on the day of her disappearance, I would use it to see how far it is likely to travel IF for example she has launched herself into the middle of the water.
This is also the more likely answer because her dog would have followed her scent on land as he was not tied up..

Sadly , I have dealt with many suicides of women in their 40/50’s , including my own mother. There are surprisingly a lot who do use water a the main method. We cannot comprehend that because we are not at their level and depth of despair and they are not in a rationale frame of mind by this stage.
Because of the nature of our coastline in the U.K. we do often have bodies and body parts that are washed up on shore around the country and again this is something that experts can generally predict using the flow rate of the river and the water depth and the weight etc … I was often called to such on Crosby and Southport beaches.
To answer your question, I think the family will have a good idea if they look at what her mental condition in recent months but understandably, HOPE, makes them look elsewhere. There’s a chance of her being found and finding out what happened to her . Unless of course she has decided to walk away from her current life and one day May return when she is mentally able to face her life and responsibilities again .

 

[cottonweaver]

Lancashire Police refer themselves to watchdog over contact with Nicola Bulley

Lancashire Police have referred themselves to the Independent Office for Police Conduct over the contact the force had with missing mother Nicola Bulley on January 10, prior to her disappearance, the watchdog said.

www.standard.co.uk

What happened that day

IMO this is cause the Home Sec has demanded answers from LP ( I posted the link from Lizzie Dearden a page or so back. Dearden points out that our police forces operations are supposed to be independent of any government)

and because of the backlash it's very common for a force to refer themselves to IOPC

ETA
posting link again coz it's more than a page back on this thread

https://twitter.com/x/status/1626275176454275072

 

[karakuchi]

IMO

So I guess, unfortunately, suicide is back on the table?

If hypothetically she jumped from the bridge on Garstang Road, she may well have crossed over the weir...

 

[PS8800]

Occam’s razor states that she is in the water

Personally , I would ask Peter Faulding back to the river to do another deep dive because his strategy would have been totally different had he have been briefed about these vulnerabilities from the start .

I would have the scene re enacted in different ways by using a dummy mock up of her size and weight and height and put the exact clothes on her that she had on the day she disappeared and then when the river conditions are the same or similar to the river conditions on the day of her disappearance, I would use it to see how far it is likely to travel IF for example she has launched herself into the middle of the water.
This is also the more likely answer because her dog would have followed her scent on land as he was not tied up..

Sadly , I have dealt with many suicides of women in their 40/50’s , including my own mother. There are surprisingly a lot who do use water a the main method. We cannot comprehend that because we are not at their level and depth of despair and they are not in a rationale frame of mind by this stage.
Because of the nature of our coastline in the U.K. we do often have bodies and body parts that are washed up on shore around the country and again this is something that experts can generally predict using the flow rate of the river and the water depth and the weight etc … I was often called to such on Crosby and Southport beaches.
To answer your question, I think the family will have a good idea if they look at what her mental condition in recent months but understandably, HOPE, makes them look elsewhere. There’s a chance of her being found and finding out what happened to her . Unless of course she has decided to walk away from her current life and one day May return when she is mentally able to face her life and responsibilities again .

I was saying to my husband the other day, if it was suicide-im not sure of the chosen body of water-most choose to jump off bridges from quite a height?
But you never know…maybe she found some sort of allure to this river and a connection and if she “passed” it was meant to be.
Hard to know the frame of mind.
MOO.

 

[EyeSpyU]

The information yesterday raises as many questions as it answers to me. If someone was suicidal entering water would be an odd way to do it (not that you can always apply logic). A stat that I heard last year stuck with me and that was that out of all the people that have attempted suicide off the Golden Gate bridge and survived they all immediately regretted it. Entering the water by the bank or even from one of the bridges near by wouldn't be instantly fatal and thus give you time to contemplate your decision. Perhaps you could take something then enter the river but despite the extensive searches she's still vanished whether she entered the water near the bench or further down.

I agree.

I know some people throw themselves off bridges as they know the impact alone will l8kely kill them, but I can’s envIsage anyone walking or throwing themselves into a river, especially when their dog is nearby - it just seems odd. Added to that, wouldn’t the body’s natural response when going into the water be to swim? Even if you wanted to drown, human instinct would kick in, surely?

This is such a sad, heartbreaking case with so many variables and mystery.

 

[cottonweaver]

I will copy and paste a very rough draft reply that took me about 2 minutes to type out when my friend asked me over chat yesterday morning….. please understand THIS WAS PRE THE DISCLOSURE OF THE MENOPAUSE / ALCOHOL issues and VULNERABILITIES as stated in the press conference later that day and it was a rushed reply and not a a professional reply -see below
———////———-
Occam’s razor says that she is in the water however I’m led to believe that it is only shallow water at the part where she would have fallen in (18”) unless she was launched in by someone forcibly pushing her and she landed in the middle of the river which is 2/3 feet deep ?

But the river is not a fast flower river according to one expert report and yet another says that it is?

Also, the Police college at Bramshill have a directory of expertise in every possible and conceivable subject matter that you could think of.

Therefore, it would be easily calculated as to the different locations that she may be if in the water , as to where about. This will be done using physics and mathematical equations and taking different data for example:

1. Calculating how far her body would be carried by the water (if at all) if she just fell or slipped in, based upon her weight and clothing worn and the flow of the river and the depth of the river and the time since she ingressed .

2. Another calculation would be based upon the same data but adding in the temp of the water and rate of decomposition and then at what stage, the body is likely to rise to the top of the water as the gasses in the body go through the putrefaction stages.

3. All these calculations will be applied but changing the data variables so adding in the fact that she was pushed into the water as opposed to slipped so they would use all the same data but this time using the submersion of her body in 2/3ft water as opposed to 18”.

They will just keep alternating all the different variables of the data to give you an idea as to how far her body may have travelled and wether it has reached the estuary or sea .

Having said that , if I were in charge of the investigation , I would recreate a fall into the water at the depth of a slip into
It at a depth of 18” and then conversely at a depth of 2/3 feet using a weighted dummy to the weight of her and dressed in the identical clothing that she wore on the crucial day and doing so in the same weather conditions and same water flow rate as the day she disappeared .

I have concerns about tunnel vision by the SIO but as an insider, what leaps out to me is that after the first 48 hrs of this being a missing person from home ( MFH ) this SHOULD HAVE ABSOLUTELY BEEN DEEMED A POTENTIAL CRIME AND THEN HANDED OVER TO THE CID SIO ( me ).

That’s because the cid have the expertise and if they haven’t then they know where to get it.

It stinks to me that there is a huge communication breakdown between the Gold command of the CID and the gold command of the UNIFORM dept

There are some very important lines of enquiry which MUST be done within the initial ‘golden hours’ of the investigation and within no more than 48 hrs of the investigation being commenced.

Now for all we know, this may have had but I’m skeptical:

1. Ping phone for locations up to 30 min prior to the last known location to see if it was in fact in that same location for 30 mins or had it only arrived 5 min before? ( in other words staged….)

2. Fit bit data checked which will let you know if there was a spike in heart rate at any point before her disappearance? To ascertain if something of significant took place. Also to ascertain if she was 100% wearing it from location history because it’s been said that she was but in until she is found , we wouldn’t know for certain .

3. Ascertain who was in the area , not just that day but go back a week beforehand.

This will give you an idea if any unusual characters hanging around or any dummy run if her disappearance has been staged by herself or others .

This can be done by data dump of mobile phones in the area each day for a one week period during the specific period of 0900-0930 .

It can also be done by witnesses being asked to come forward.

4. There should have been a joint press conference with the police and her husband.

5. There should be a potential re enactment after the first week or two on the same day of the week that she allegedly went missing at the same specific time period.

6. E fit compiled of the suspicious person seen in the area recently.

7. All the occupants of the caravan park nearby to be spoken to and search warrants enacted in each caravan .

8. Marital life investigated

9. Employment position investigated

10. Medical details Investigated for potential suicide indicators

11. Mobile devices and home computers to be looked at with regards to search history, text messages, Snapchat, WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook,emails , photographs and location history informed etc

12. CCTV- we know one pertaining camera not working- since when? Fault ? Reported ?
Do a funnelled stop of all vehicles going through the main route near to the river exactly one week later on the same day and time parameters of her disappearance , ascertaining if they have dash cam and if this is a regular route and did they witness anything ?

13. Engage search parameters and send in POLSA ( expertise search)

14. Engage house to house parameters and allocate resources to complete H-H and ensure PDF’s are completed ( personal description forms of each person living at address )

15. All ports bulletin issued, passport office enquiries, Travel agents enquiries, airline manifestos checked

16. Banking of her and her husband to be viewed for anomalies

17. Foot wear cast impressions of any footprints in the soil around the bench where last seen

18. Dogs for tracking

19. DNA swabs of the harness , lead, phone etc

20. Landline call history viewed for parameters set time period ( ie 1 month preceding disappearance)

These are just off the top of my head

The actual reasons for disappearance that I would be looking at :

1. Fall into water

2.Crime - pushed into water or

3. Abduction?

4.kidnapping ?

5.Suicide?

6.Familial involvement- is there a potential history of Domestic Violence ( husband always top of the list )

7. Voluntary disappearance- ( I have a gut feeling about this ). Was she in financial trouble or under investigation at work as a mortgage advisor and broker ? Did she go for her usual dog walk the preceding day with a-backpack containing a change of clothes/coat/footwear/wig/hat/glasses and left in dense undergrowth by rear of the bench overnight.

Following daily dog walk, she replaced her outfit with disguised outfit and utilised the backpack to carry her discarded clothes?
Does she have relatives in a different part of this or another country?

Is she vulnerable in any way ?

Are there any reasons to support a voluntary disappearance?

It seems to me that all eggs are in one basket of the water and it’s not even being mentioned about the potential for suicide or voluntary disappearance……..

too long to reply to all the points but just re your point here : 'I have concerns about tunnel vision by the SIO but as an insider, what leaps out to me is that after the first 48 hrs of this being a missing person from home ( MFH ) this SHOULD HAVE ABSOLUTELY BEEN DEEMED A POTENTIAL CRIME AND THEN HANDED OVER TO THE CID SIO ( me ).'


if the NCA already peer reviewed their investigation ( see press conference from a fortnight ago) and, seeing as the NCA are the key org which assist all others with MPerson's cases, why do you feel that this should have been handed over when NCA have the expertise here?

Unless we want to jump the shark and presume that Superintendent Sally Riley is a liar, NCA already said that LP had basically missed nothing ( eg to suggest criminal involvement.)

 

[Lilbitcurious]

I will copy and paste a very rough draft reply that took me about 2 minutes to type out when my friend asked me over chat yesterday morning….. please understand THIS WAS PRE THE DISCLOSURE OF THE MENOPAUSE / ALCOHOL issues and VULNERABILITIES as stated in the press conference later that day and it was a rushed reply and not a a professional reply -see below
———////———-
Occam’s razor says that she is in the water however I’m led to believe that it is only shallow water at the part where she would have fallen in (18”) unless she was launched in by someone forcibly pushing her and she landed in the middle of the river which is 2/3 feet deep ?

But the river is not a fast flower river according to one expert report and yet another says that it is?

Also, the Police college at Bramshill have a directory of expertise in every possible and conceivable subject matter that you could think of.

Therefore, it would be easily calculated as to the different locations that she may be if in the water , as to where about. This will be done using physics and mathematical equations and taking different data for example:

1. Calculating how far her body would be carried by the water (if at all) if she just fell or slipped in, based upon her weight and clothing worn and the flow of the river and the depth of the river and the time since she ingressed .

2. Another calculation would be based upon the same data but adding in the temp of the water and rate of decomposition and then at what stage, the body is likely to rise to the top of the water as the gasses in the body go through the putrefaction stages.

3. All these calculations will be applied but changing the data variables so adding in the fact that she was pushed into the water as opposed to slipped so they would use all the same data but this time using the submersion of her body in 2/3ft water as opposed to 18”.

They will just keep alternating all the different variables of the data to give you an idea as to how far her body may have travelled and wether it has reached the estuary or sea .

Having said that , if I were in charge of the investigation , I would recreate a fall into the water at the depth of a slip into
It at a depth of 18” and then conversely at a depth of 2/3 feet using a weighted dummy to the weight of her and dressed in the identical clothing that she wore on the crucial day and doing so in the same weather conditions and same water flow rate as the day she disappeared .

I have concerns about tunnel vision by the SIO but as an insider, what leaps out to me is that after the first 48 hrs of this being a missing person from home ( MFH ) this SHOULD HAVE ABSOLUTELY BEEN DEEMED A POTENTIAL CRIME AND THEN HANDED OVER TO THE CID SIO ( me ).

That’s because the cid have the expertise and if they haven’t then they know where to get it.

It stinks to me that there is a huge communication breakdown between the Gold command of the CID and the gold command of the UNIFORM dept

There are some very important lines of enquiry which MUST be done within the initial ‘golden hours’ of the investigation and within no more than 48 hrs of the investigation being commenced.

Now for all we know, this may have had but I’m skeptical:

1. Ping phone for locations up to 30 min prior to the last known location to see if it was in fact in that same location for 30 mins or had it only arrived 5 min before? ( in other words staged….)

2. Fit bit data checked which will let you know if there was a spike in heart rate at any point before her disappearance? To ascertain if something of significant took place. Also to ascertain if she was 100% wearing it from location history because it’s been said that she was but in until she is found , we wouldn’t know for certain .

3. Ascertain who was in the area , not just that day but go back a week beforehand.

This will give you an idea if any unusual characters hanging around or any dummy run if her disappearance has been staged by herself or others .

This can be done by data dump of mobile phones in the area each day for a one week period during the specific period of 0900-0930 .

It can also be done by witnesses being asked to come forward.

4. There should have been a joint press conference with the police and her husband.

5. There should be a potential re enactment after the first week or two on the same day of the week that she allegedly went missing at the same specific time period.

6. E fit compiled of the suspicious person seen in the area recently.

7. All the occupants of the caravan park nearby to be spoken to and search warrants enacted in each caravan .

8. Marital life investigated

9. Employment position investigated

10. Medical details Investigated for potential suicide indicators

11. Mobile devices and home computers to be looked at with regards to search history, text messages, Snapchat, WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook,emails , photographs and location history informed etc

12. CCTV- we know one pertaining camera not working- since when? Fault ? Reported ?
Do a funnelled stop of all vehicles going through the main route near to the river exactly one week later on the same day and time parameters of her disappearance , ascertaining if they have dash cam and if this is a regular route and did they witness anything ?

13. Engage search parameters and send in POLSA ( expertise search)

14. Engage house to house parameters and allocate resources to complete H-H and ensure PDF’s are completed ( personal description forms of each person living at address )

15. All ports bulletin issued, passport office enquiries, Travel agents enquiries, airline manifestos checked

16. Banking of her and her husband to be viewed for anomalies

17. Foot wear cast impressions of any footprints in the soil around the bench where last seen

18. Dogs for tracking

19. DNA swabs of the harness , lead, phone etc

20. Landline call history viewed for parameters set time period ( ie 1 month preceding disappearance)

These are just off the top of my head

The actual reasons for disappearance that I would be looking at :

1. Fall into water

2.Crime - pushed into water or

3. Abduction?

4.kidnapping ?

5.Suicide?

6.Familial involvement- is there a potential history of Domestic Violence ( husband always top of the list )

7. Voluntary disappearance- ( I have a gut feeling about this ). Was she in financial trouble or under investigation at work as a mortgage advisor and broker ? Did she go for her usual dog walk the preceding day with a-backpack containing a change of clothes/coat/footwear/wig/hat/glasses and left in dense undergrowth by rear of the bench overnight.

Following daily dog walk, she replaced her outfit with disguised outfit and utilised the backpack to carry her discarded clothes?
Does she have relatives in a different part of this or another country?

Is she vulnerable in any way ?

Are there any reasons to support a voluntary disappearance?

It seems to me that all eggs are in one basket of the water and it’s not even being mentioned about the potential for suicide or voluntary disappearance……..

I’m sure one of NB friends said that both PA and NB mostly work from home when accusations started flying in his direction) so what was the need for NB parents to stay on longer on the Thursday(I think?) for NB to zoom with a client? Where was PA?

Nicola Bulley's friends slam claims that her husband could be involved

Paul Ansell, 44, was working from home when Nicola vanished on Friday January 27 - and police reportedly have CCTV to prove he never left the house.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Cuko]

I will copy and paste a very rough draft reply that took me about 2 minutes to type out when my friend asked me over chat yesterday morning….. please understand THIS WAS PRE THE DISCLOSURE OF THE MENOPAUSE / ALCOHOL issues and VULNERABILITIES as stated in the press conference later that day and it was a rushed reply and not a a professional reply -see below
———////———-
Occam’s razor says that she is in the water however I’m led to believe that it is only shallow water at the part where she would have fallen in (18”) unless she was launched in by someone forcibly pushing her and she landed in the middle of the river which is 2/3 feet deep ?

But the river is not a fast flower river according to one expert report and yet another says that it is?

Also, the Police college at Bramshill have a directory of expertise in every possible and conceivable subject matter that you could think of.

Therefore, it would be easily calculated as to the different locations that she may be if in the water , as to where about. This will be done using physics and mathematical equations and taking different data for example:

1. Calculating how far her body would be carried by the water (if at all) if she just fell or slipped in, based upon her weight and clothing worn and the flow of the river and the depth of the river and the time since she ingressed .

2. Another calculation would be based upon the same data but adding in the temp of the water and rate of decomposition and then at what stage, the body is likely to rise to the top of the water as the gasses in the body go through the putrefaction stages.

3. All these calculations will be applied but changing the data variables so adding in the fact that she was pushed into the water as opposed to slipped so they would use all the same data but this time using the submersion of her body in 2/3ft water as opposed to 18”.

They will just keep alternating all the different variables of the data to give you an idea as to how far her body may have travelled and wether it has reached the estuary or sea .

Having said that , if I were in charge of the investigation , I would recreate a fall into the water at the depth of a slip into
It at a depth of 18” and then conversely at a depth of 2/3 feet using a weighted dummy to the weight of her and dressed in the identical clothing that she wore on the crucial day and doing so in the same weather conditions and same water flow rate as the day she disappeared .

I have concerns about tunnel vision by the SIO but as an insider, what leaps out to me is that after the first 48 hrs of this being a missing person from home ( MFH ) this SHOULD HAVE ABSOLUTELY BEEN DEEMED A POTENTIAL CRIME AND THEN HANDED OVER TO THE CID SIO ( me ).

That’s because the cid have the expertise and if they haven’t then they know where to get it.

It stinks to me that there is a huge communication breakdown between the Gold command of the CID and the gold command of the UNIFORM dept

There are some very important lines of enquiry which MUST be done within the initial ‘golden hours’ of the investigation and within no more than 48 hrs of the investigation being commenced.

Now for all we know, this may have had but I’m skeptical:

1. Ping phone for locations up to 30 min prior to the last known location to see if it was in fact in that same location for 30 mins or had it only arrived 5 min before? ( in other words staged….)

2. Fit bit data checked which will let you know if there was a spike in heart rate at any point before her disappearance? To ascertain if something of significant took place. Also to ascertain if she was 100% wearing it from location history because it’s been said that she was but in until she is found , we wouldn’t know for certain .

3. Ascertain who was in the area , not just that day but go back a week beforehand.

This will give you an idea if any unusual characters hanging around or any dummy run if her disappearance has been staged by herself or others .

This can be done by data dump of mobile phones in the area each day for a one week period during the specific period of 0900-0930 .

It can also be done by witnesses being asked to come forward.

4. There should have been a joint press conference with the police and her husband.

5. There should be a potential re enactment after the first week or two on the same day of the week that she allegedly went missing at the same specific time period.

6. E fit compiled of the suspicious person seen in the area recently.

7. All the occupants of the caravan park nearby to be spoken to and search warrants enacted in each caravan .

8. Marital life investigated

9. Employment position investigated

10. Medical details Investigated for potential suicide indicators

11. Mobile devices and home computers to be looked at with regards to search history, text messages, Snapchat, WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook,emails , photographs and location history informed etc

12. CCTV- we know one pertaining camera not working- since when? Fault ? Reported ?
Do a funnelled stop of all vehicles going through the main route near to the river exactly one week later on the same day and time parameters of her disappearance , ascertaining if they have dash cam and if this is a regular route and did they witness anything ?

13. Engage search parameters and send in POLSA ( expertise search)

14. Engage house to house parameters and allocate resources to complete H-H and ensure PDF’s are completed ( personal description forms of each person living at address )

15. All ports bulletin issued, passport office enquiries, Travel agents enquiries, airline manifestos checked

16. Banking of her and her husband to be viewed for anomalies

17. Foot wear cast impressions of any footprints in the soil around the bench where last seen

18. Dogs for tracking

19. DNA swabs of the harness , lead, phone etc

20. Landline call history viewed for parameters set time period ( ie 1 month preceding disappearance)

These are just off the top of my head

The actual reasons for disappearance that I would be looking at :

1. Fall into water

2.Crime - pushed into water or

3. Abduction?

4.kidnapping ?

5.Suicide?

6.Familial involvement- is there a potential history of Domestic Violence ( husband always top of the list )

7. Voluntary disappearance- ( I have a gut feeling about this ). Was she in financial trouble or under investigation at work as a mortgage advisor and broker ? Did she go for her usual dog walk the preceding day with a-backpack containing a change of clothes/coat/footwear/wig/hat/glasses and left in dense undergrowth by rear of the bench overnight.

Following daily dog walk, she replaced her outfit with disguised outfit and utilised the backpack to carry her discarded clothes?
Does she have relatives in a different part of this or another country?

Is she vulnerable in any way ?

Are there any reasons to support a voluntary disappearance?

It seems to me that all eggs are in one basket of the water and it’s not even being mentioned about the potential for suicide or voluntary disappearance……..

To a non-police officer this is fascinating and extremely informative. Some of it is new to me, others of your points have been raised on these threads by some of us who’ve had great concern about the local LE’s apparent focus on one possible scenario only. I would love to think that all your listed strategies have been carried out, but from the press conferences and LE website updates, I’m not filled with confidence that they have.

 

[Angleterre]

IMO this is cause the Home Sec has demanded answers from LP ( I posted the link from Lizzie Dearden a page or so back. Dearden points out that our police forces operations are supposed to be independent of any government)

and because of the backlash it's very common for a force to refer themselves to IOPC

This is a MAJOR OBSTACLE these days when you have a critical major incident
Our Government are not supposed to be involving themselves in this manner and the Police should be free of any political intrusion.
This was my biggest bug bear as often I would attend the scene of a double or triple murder as the SIO and I literally had arrived and was putting on my white forensic noddy paper suit and shoe coverings before the Area Commander would be blowing up my phone saying I want a full briefing NOW with names and ages and any suspects…. Only for me to reply that I hadn’t yet been briefed and was still suiting up only to be told - the Chief Constable needs to know NOW because he has the Prime Ministers office on the phone wanting to know what is happening…… Butt out and let us do our job . The current Home Secretary , Suella Braverman was a colleague of Kier Starmer working on prosecutions in the HO. I think she thinks she’s on the inside with her demands ……

 

[cottonweaver]

This is a MAJOR OBSTACLE these days when you have a critical major incident
Our Government are not supposed to be involving themselves in this manner and the Police should be free of any political intrusion.
This was my biggest bug bear as often I would attend the scene of a double or triple murder as the SIO and I literally had arrived and was putting on my white forensic noddy paper suit and shoe coverings before the Area Commander would be blowing up my phone saying I want a full briefing NOW with names and ages and any suspects…. Only for me to reply that I hadn’t yet been briefed and was still suiting up only to be told - the Chief Constable needs to know NOW because he has the Prime Ministers office on the phone wanting to know what is happening…… Butt out and let us do our job . The current Home Secretary , Suella Braverman was a colleague of Kier Starmer working on prosecutions in the HO. I think she thinks she’s on the inside with her demands ……

awful & I agree - last thing anybody would need is political interference

ps afaik Suella Braverman never worked for the CPS. ( or with any Lab politician like Starmer)

( or you can check wiki Suella Braverman - Wikipedia)

 

[kittythehare]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1626218917453504512

thread.

 

[jtg65]

Has it been mentioned anywhere whether she was a swimmer / strong swimmer / couldn’t swim at all? That would obviously help to further rule out the accidental fall hypothesis.

Edit: I see TA said she was a strong swimmer

 

[Angleterre]

too long to reply to all the points but just re your point here : 'I have concerns about tunnel vision by the SIO but as an insider, what leaps out to me is that after the first 48 hrs of this being a missing person from home ( MFH ) this SHOULD HAVE ABSOLUTELY BEEN DEEMED A POTENTIAL CRIME AND THEN HANDED OVER TO THE CID SIO ( me ).'


if the NCA already peer reviewed their investigation ( see press conference from a fortnight ago) and, seeing as the NCA are the key org which assist all others with MPerson's cases, why do you feel that this should have been handed over when NCA have the expertise here?

Unless we want to jump the shark and presume that Superintendent Sally Riley is a liar, NCA already said that LP had basically missed nothing ( eg to suggest criminal involvement.)

Because how did they know the answers for to those questions two weeks ago - they couldn’t possibly have because they didn’t consider alternative theories and lacked a crime scene etc
The National Crime Agency is a totally different force in itself and wouldn’t get involved in a missing person enquiry ???

 

[EyeSpyU]

Yes, there was footage of getting Willow in the car but the interior of the car wasn’t all visible.

IMO she didn’t take any belongings with her. Besides, PA must know her passport is still there, and she hasn’t used her bank cards or made contact with one single person, so I certainly don’t believe she’s just upped and left. And why would she do that when walking the dog? She could have walked out the door alone at any time.

 

[EyeSpyU]

Has it been mentioned anywhere whether she was a swimmer / strong swimmer / couldn’t swim at all? That would obviously help to further rule out the accidental fall hypothesis.

Edit: I see TA said she was a strong swimmer

She’s an extremely good swimmer.

 

[SteelyGlint]

I agree.

I know some people throw themselves off bridges as they know the impact alone will l8kely kill them, but I can’s envIsage anyone walking or throwing themselves into a river, especially when their dog is nearby - it just seems odd. Added to that, wouldn’t the body’s natural response when going into the water be to swim? Even if you wanted to drown, human instinct would kick in, surely?

This is such a sad, heartbreaking case with so many variables and mystery.

You swim, in this water which is 4c at the moment, for 1, possibly 2 minutes, hyperventilating until you “fail to swim”, unable to tread water. I personally think it unlikely, an accident is more likely IMO.

 

[Angleterre]

awful & I agree - last thing anybody would need is political interference

ps afaik Suella Braverman never worked for the CPS.

( or you can check wiki Suella Braverman - Wikipedia)

She did - she was a barriste and worked alongside a friend of mine in the Crown Prosecution service at the HO for a short while

awful & I agree - last thing anybody would need is political interference

ps afaik Suella Braverman never worked for the CPS. ( or with any Lab politician like Starmer)

( or you can check wiki Suella Braverman - Wikipedia)

Starmer was the head of the CPS before he entered Govt as a labour MP and ultimately the leader of the Labour Party