Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #2

[Tortoise]

I am struggling with a couple of things

While I agree it is technically possible to drown in there, it's not very likely for a healthy middle aged woman.

If it's misadventure, and she went in the water, you'd expect she would have been found close by

If she were attacked, where is she? I am struggling with the idea she is removed from the locality - not so easy!

In every case, we seem to be dealing with some kind of low probability event, as the obvious things are being eliminated.

You have to wonder if she left under her own power, but that seems unusual with the dog and the phone.

I think it depends on so many things we don't know, but all we have is the new information about the dog harness being at the edge of the bank, police focusing on the river, a sign saying danger deep water in that spot, a friend saying the bank was slippery, and a ton of speculation in the thread about it being shallow because police were wading further up around the bend.

I'm not saying it wasn't shallow, I'm just pointing out I haven't seen a reliable source for it. Rivers are different depths all over, it's not a manmade canal.

I think if it was deep there, if it was impossible to scramble back out because the bank was a drop, as seen in the photo, she could have had a shock reaction to the icy cold water which can do things to the body like causing hyperventilation, inhalation of water, tiring the body quickly as it has an effect on the muscles, and thick heavy wet clothing and boots filled with water hampering her, could all add up to an unfortunate drowning.

I don't know the facts about how long it takes a drowned person to sink, but they do.

I also don't think it's likely she went anywhere else or a third party was involved. I think it likely Willow knew she fell in the water and stayed there.

JMO

 

[Aliceinwonderland1234]

just noticed from one of NB facebook pictures she has in the past been on the other bank of river opposite to bench (nov 29, 2022) - new poster me on websleths

This is interesting.

 

[Detectivehorseshoe]

The abduction theory might tie in with the police being so tight lipped about a potential third party? MOO. So, if they think there's a chance someone might be holding her somewhere that person is not spooked into harming her?

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

just noticed from one of NB facebook pictures she has in the past been on the other bank of river opposite to bench (nov 29, 2022) - new poster me on websleths

Looking through the photos - I cant find one opposite? They are all on the route around the same side.

 

[Sjöberg]

Honestly, I cannot rule anything out any more. And not because everything seems likely, but because everything seems equally unlikely! But well, that's probably also why it's front page news and got a thread.
1. Accident, despite nothing found and no obvious scenario
<modsnip - not victim friendly>
3. Killed by someone she knew, despite there being no obvious time/location for that
<modsnip - not victim friendly>
5. Kidnapped or killed by a stranger, despite there being people nearby, no car access and the location being pretty much "locals only"

 

[in2thegate]

Still got everything crossed that she is ok. But as the days go in it seems less likely - although not impossible. The case has kept me awake and disturbed for days now - her poor family, her poor dog.

Very interesting point that @concerneduk makes, what about if she was on the opposite side of the river, access can be gained from Hall Lane via the unoccupied / abandoned house ? Wish the police could tell us which was she walked when leaving the school, via hall lane or over the bridge on to the path which leads to the bench ? Purely speculation but could Willow have been distressed near the bench (i think this was confirmed by the witness who found Willow) because NB was over the otherside of the river ? JMO

Yesterday completely threw me with the changing story coming from the MSM. Very upsetting and heartbreaking.

I hope to god she is found soon. Everything crossed.

 

[concerneduk]

Well spotted

maybe willow either went in river to get to other side and/or more likely went over bridge in pic from nov29. maybe nb saw willow on other side and paniced.. think best to recheck bridge area and other side.

 

[Aliceinwonderland1234]

I feel so sad about this today, the longer it goes on the worse it is.
Her love for that area makes it all the more upsetting.
Let’s hope we get some more information soon.

 

[Firstsnow4]

This could also be why there is confusion over the harness, would a non dog walker think it would be normal to remove the harness to make it look like something had happened in the water. IMO

Yes and I still think too much emphasis is being placed on something happening at the bench when she wasn’t even witnessed at the bench. Just because her items were found there doesn’t mean she had been there. IMO.

 

[mrjitty]

I think it depends on so many things we don't know, but all we have is the new information about the dog harness being at the edge of the bank, police focusing on the river, a sign saying danger deep water in that spot, a friend saying the bank was slippery, and a ton of speculation in the thread about it being shallow because police were wading further up around the bend.

I'm not saying it wasn't shallow, I'm just pointing out I haven't seen a reliable source for it. Rivers are different depths all over, it's not a manmade canal.

I think if it was deep there, if it was impossible to scramble back out because the bank was a drop, as seen in the photo, she could have had a shock reaction to the icy cold water which can do things to the body like causing hyperventilation, inhalation of water, tiring the body quickly as it has an effect on the muscles, and thick heavy wet clothing and boots filled with water hampering her, could all add up to an unfortunate drowning.

I don't know the facts about how long it takes a drowned person to sink, but they do.

I also don't think it's likely she went anywhere else or a third party was involved. I think it likely Willow knew she fell in the water and stayed there.

JMO

I agree that it will be something unlikely. Unlikely things happen sometimes.

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

maybe willow either went in river to get to other side and/or more likely went over bridge in pic from nov29. maybe nb saw willow on other side and paniced.. think best to recheck bridge area and other side.

The bridge is the one at the start of the walk by the road.

You can match the tree.

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

All photos on that day can be accounted for the location by matching up landmarks and shes not on the otherside in any of them.

 

[Parker Knoll]

I am beginning sadly to feel something nefarious has happened here.
Ok - night before she works late in Garstang and her parents look after the children ( where was PA ? ) Gets an email from her sister asking about Spa treatments that she doesn’t reply to ( maybe asleep ) next morning ( Friday ) she takes her children to school with willow in the car also, drops them off, leaves her car at school and sets off on her walk. 9.01am logs into the team meeting and is on mute. She is seen laughing and joking by other parents at the school. Walks towards her usual walk down by the river with willow on harness and lead, presumably listening in still on the zoom call.
Spotted at 9.15 THEN according to various reports it gets muddled. Owner of the caravan park spots willow off lead and leash dry and agitated. Ties her to the bench as she has an appointment and calls her daughter who is a friend of NB as she recognises vaguely willow. Daughter comes down and with another dog walker oresent they notice the phone and the female recognises the screensaver and calls PA who immediately comes to the river ( so they have two cars as it’s 3 miles away ) and calls the police. I suspect that whoever came to the scene innocently afterwards put the lead, leash and phone on the bench. I don’t think she is in the water and I don’t think willow ever was either as she was dry. My cocker spaniel loves swimming but I walk by a local canal most days and apart from falling in once has never gone in. He doesn’t like to “ launch “ into water only be able to walk into it if you get my drift.
Have I got this scenario wrong ?
JMO

 

[Cuko]

Thinking about previous high media-profile disappearance cases, police have almost always updated in press conferences and family members have made televised appeals. I’m surprised that after the initial police statement, there’s been not a single further presser. Anyone else think it’s unusual?

 

[msmarple99]

Something bit odd about caravan site owner "having to be at an appointment" yet walking by the river, no dog

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

My concern is also about the meeting the night before.

Mortgage companies close at 4-5pm and since they work from home it makes no sense to schedule a late night / after hours meeting? I mean her boss could just do it this way or it worked out that way.

<modsnip - not victim friendly>

Its a new job in the last year so a new crowd of people - she had an important call the next morning so what was so important it had to be discussed face to face the night before a large meeting? Litterally hours before that very meeting on Teams at 9:01am.

 

[in2thegate]

My concern is also about the meeting the night before.

Mortgage companies close at 4-5pm and since they work from home it makes no sense to schedule a late night / after hours meeting? I mean her boss could just do it this way or it worked out that way.
<modsnip - not victim friendly>

Its a new job in the last year so a new crowd of people - she had an important call the next morning so what was so important it had to be discussed face to face the night before a large meeting? Litterally hours before that very meeting on Teams at 9:01am.

Yes this is playing in my head. Its strange.

 

[Woodburnbay]

Can I ask your source for that info plz

Certainly:

Nicolas Mother stated:

She said: "Louise had just booked Ribby Hall because they both had spa vouchers, she had just sent Nicola the night before the treatments. Louise booked it on Friday morning and sent it to Nicola but she never got back to her. They are very close."

Source of information that I have taken the above statement:

Nicola Bulley excitedly made spa break plans the night before she vanished

Nicola, who "lived for her children", had also bought tickets to watch them perform at choir and gymnastics shows in recent weeks

www.lancs.live

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

<modsnip - quoted post removed>
Many appologies you are right, you can match up the trees and the bank here. That is very interesting, this might be something to point out to someone close to the investigation.

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

 

[rojo]

Still got everything crossed that she is ok. But as the days go in it seems less likely - although not impossible. The case has kept me awake and disturbed for days now - her poor family, her poor dog.

Very interesting point that @concerneduk makes, what about if she was on the opposite side of the river, access can be gained from Hall Lane via the unoccupied / abandoned house ? Wish the police could tell us which was she walked when leaving the school, via hall lane or over the bridge on to the path which leads to the bench ? Purely speculation but could Willow have been distressed near the bench (i think this was confirmed by the witness who found Willow) because NB was over the otherside of the river ? JMO

Yesterday completely threw me with the changing story coming from the MSM. Very upsetting and heartbreaking.

I hope to god she is found soon. Everything crossed.

On the opposite side, but her phone and dogs harness etc are on the other side by the bench? Highly unlikely imo.

My concern is also about the meeting the night before.

Mortgage companies close at 4-5pm and since they work from home it makes no sense to schedule a late night / after hours meeting? I mean her boss could just do it this way or it worked out that way.

<modsnip - not victim friendly>

Its a new job in the last year so a new crowd of people - she had an important call the next morning so what was so important it had to be discussed face to face the night before a large meeting? Litterally hours before that very meeting on Teams at 9:01am.

Was she a mortgage advisor? Feasible she had a meeting at a customers house to sign paperwork etc. customer works during day so could only meet after work?

good point though. Be interesting to know who it was. Presumably the police have already looked into that

 

[grey345]

So she was also in the habit of walking on the other side of the river too. And there was a bridge nearby? I feel like this changes everything.

How near was the footbridge to the bench? Does anyone have a map?

She was sighted on the road coming up to the field. But no one saw her in the field, or what side of the river she had chosen to walk on that morning.