Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #2

[Woodburnbay]

I think it depends on so many things we don't know, but all we have is the new information about the dog harness being at the edge of the bank, police focusing on the river, a sign saying danger deep water in that spot, a friend saying the bank was slippery, and a ton of speculation in the thread about it being shallow because police were wading further up around the bend.

I'm not saying it wasn't shallow, I'm just pointing out I haven't seen a reliable source for it. Rivers are different depths all over, it's not a manmade canal.

I think if it was deep there, if it was impossible to scramble back out because the bank was a drop, as seen in the photo, she could have had a shock reaction to the icy cold water which can do things to the body like causing hyperventilation, inhalation of water, tiring the body quickly as it has an effect on the muscles, and thick heavy wet clothing and boots filled with water hampering her, could all add up to an unfortunate drowning.

I don't know the facts about how long it takes a drowned person to sink, but they do.

I also don't think it's likely she went anywhere else or a third party was involved. I think it likely Willow knew she fell in the water and stayed there.

JMO

Do we know if the river flowing in one direction comes across a weir at some point or an area that a body could not pass beyond.

Im sure the police will have applied this thinking when sending in divers as this will identify a wider search area.

Whilst the police seem to be ruling out foul play, are they doing this to keep panic levels down amongst the community.

 

[Blue182]

Unfortunately in the UK when people go missing walking by a river, they are usually in the river.

But I hope this turns out to be the exception to the rule and maybe she had some kind of mental health break and just needed to get away for a while.

 

[Woodburnbay]

Something bit odd about caravan site owner "having to be at an appointment" yet walking by the river, no dog

Do you have source of information for this comment.

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

This is the field she was in when the photo was taken, its all private gardens across there, you can see over the hedge on street view.

Google map link

St Michael's on Wyre · Preston, UK

Preston, UK

www.google.com

 

[Edinlass]

If dogs can't find you they will return to your belongings. For example if you lose a dog, leave an item of your clothing at the last spot you were together, the dog will return to that spot.

Was her dog out of eyesight when something happened to Nicola? when the dog returned, if it couldn't find her it is likely to stay next to her belongings assuming that she would return.

This makes the most sense to me tbh.

 

[Telltale]

I think it depends on so many things we don't know, but all we have is the new information about the dog harness being at the edge of the bank, police focusing on the river, a sign saying danger deep water in that spot, a friend saying the bank was slippery, and a ton of speculation in the thread about it being shallow because police were wading further up around the bend.

I'm not saying it wasn't shallow, I'm just pointing out I haven't seen a reliable source for it. Rivers are different depths all over, it's not a manmade canal.

I think if it was deep there, if it was impossible to scramble back out because the bank was a drop, as seen in the photo, she could have had a shock reaction to the icy cold water which can do things to the body like causing hyperventilation, inhalation of water, tiring the body quickly as it has an effect on the muscles, and thick heavy wet clothing and boots filled with water hampering her, could all add up to an unfortunate drowning.

I don't know the facts about how long it takes a drowned person to sink, but they do.

I also don't think it's likely she went anywhere else or a third party was involved. I think it likely Willow knew she fell in the water and stayed there.

JMO

I get you, however, if there is one deep spot below the bench she could hypothetically drown in... Where is the body?

There is drone footage showing them walking the boat up a decent stretch of the river with confidence, only one bend down stream, both in the middle and standing in the water by the bank. If there was a hole of depression by the bench, the search area to find her body would either be quite small and obvious. Or the body would have to rise out of the hole, then float down river where it would be very obvious and prone to getting stuck on something in a shallow slow moving stretch.

To get out to sea a body would have to traverse down a shallow river for miles, go through several hairpin bends, fall into a much wider and low current old millpond, come out the other side and work its way through even more miles of river. All the while not being spotted by the significant air and water search teams that were in scene very quickly after her disappearence. As well as all the volunteers walking the banks or locals keeping an eye out in the downstream riverside walks and the towns/villages the river goes through.

Libby on the other hand was put into a treacherous and notoriously fast moving river at night and swept a much shorter less complicated distance out to the Humber (which hardly can be called a river, it's seven miles wide and has a vicious tide.) Nobody was looking in the water for a week after she vanished, by which point she was almost certainly already where they eventually found her. It's a very different set of parameters and amazingly lucky she was found at all.

If this happened a lot further down The Wyre then I'd still be all for this theory. It can get a lot deeper and more treacherous, but that is miles and miles downstream of here.

 

[todders]

My concern is also about the meeting the night before.

Mortgage companies close at 4-5pm and since they work from home it makes no sense to schedule a late night / after hours meeting? I mean her boss could just do it this way or it worked out that way.

<modsnip - not victim friendly>

Its a new job in the last year so a new crowd of people - she had an important call the next morning so what was so important it had to be discussed face to face the night before a large meeting? Litterally hours before that very meeting on Teams at 9:01am.

I think it is significant as well. IMO

 

[Tortoise]

Do we know if the river flowing in one direction comes across a weir at some point or an area that a body could not pass beyond.

Im sure the police will have applied this thinking when sending in divers as this will identify a wider search area.

Whilst the police seem to be ruling out foul play, are they doing this to keep panic levels down amongst the community.

They were searching a tidal part of the river 9 miles away yesterday, so presumably the thinking is she could have drifted there.

I don't think so many resources would be deployed to keep panic levels down. JMO

edited to remove my comment about weirs because I'm clueless about them!

 

[Tortoise]

I get you, however, if there is one deep spot below the bench she could hypothetically drown in... Where is the body?

There is drone footage showing them walking the boat up a decent stretch of the river with confidence, only one bend down stream, both in the middle and standing in the water by the bank. If there was a hole of depression by the bench, the search area to find her body would either be quite small and obvious. Or the body would have to rise out of the hole, then float down river where it would be very obvious and prone to getting stuck on something in a shallow slow moving stretch.

To get out to sea a body would have to traverse down a shallow river for miles, go through several hairpin bends, fall into a much wider and low current old millpond, come out the other side and work its way through even more miles of river. All the while not being spotted by the significant search teams that were in scene very quickly after her disappearence.

Libby on the other hand was put into a treacherous and notoriously fast moving river at night and swept a much shorter less complicated distance out to sea, with nobody looking in the water for a week after she vanished. It's a very different set of parameters.

She might have got stuck in some roots or reeds for a while, I just don't know. <modsnip - referenced video was removed> I don't know enough about the river to hazard a guess. JMO

edited to remove reference to a hat - she isn't described as wearing one.

 

[Grouse]

Whilst a huge age difference this case has similar traits to Leah Croucher-Milton Keynes.
It is believed that she also met someone the night before her disappearance. She kept the knowledge of this person from her family.
She then went missing on her walk the following day.

The fact that NB had a meeting with her boss the day before (and obviously didn't keep this a secret) hardly seems a similarity. MOO

 

[Sjöberg]

I get you, however, if there is one deep spot below the bench she could hypothetically drown in... Where is the body?

There is drone footage showing them walking the boat up a decent stretch of the river with confidence, only one bend down stream, both in the middle and standing in the water by the bank. If there was a hole of depression by the bench, the search area to find her body would either be quite small and obvious. Or the body would have to rise out of the hole, then float down river where it would be very obvious and prone to getting stuck on something in a shallow slow moving stretch.

To get out to sea a body would have to traverse down a shallow river for miles, go through several hairpin bends, fall into a much wider and low current old millpond, come out the other side and work its way through even more miles of river. All the while not being spotted by the significant search teams that were in scene very quickly after her disappearence.

Libby on the other hand was put into a treacherous and notoriously fast moving river at night and swept a much shorter less complicated distance out to sea, with nobody looking in the water for a week after she vanished. It's a very different set of parameters.

They were searching a tidal part of the river 9 miles away yesterday, so presumably the thinking is she could have drifted there. I think it's the wrong direction of flow for a weir, a step up, to have prevented her drifting as you describe.

I don't think so many resources would be deployed to keep panic levels down. JMO

I think you're both right.
It is very unlikely for her to have drowned there with no body found under the conditions we know.
It is also very unlikely for all other possible scenarios that could happen to her.
I has to be something very unlikely in either case. It is possible the police simply have no other real leads and obviously the river has to be ruled out. It is possible the police have more information to suspect she's in the river (maybe some digital leads on that). As for now, it could go any way, IMO.

So, if we table the 'going into the water' (for whatever reason) theory for a moment. What are peoples other theories or scenarios as to where she's got to for a week plus, who else is involved (hypothetically) and if on her own accord, why and how did she manage it?

Unfortunately, I think it is very unlikely she is still alive.
I keep my mind open, mostly for <modsnip> some sort of foul play by someone she knew. <modsnip> getting kidnapped in a village walking trail during early working hours while walking a dog both seem even more unlikely to me.

 

[raccy2310]

My concern is also about the meeting the night before.

Mortgage companies close at 4-5pm and since they work from home it makes no sense to schedule a late night / after hours meeting? I mean her boss could just do it this way or it worked out that way.

<modsnip - not victim friendly>

Its a new job in the last year so a new crowd of people - she had an important call the next morning so what was so important it had to be discussed face to face the night before a large meeting? Litterally hours before that very meeting on Teams at 9:01am.

I'm a mortgage adviser and it's quite common I'll have evening appointments, either with clients or with the boss.

Tbh it's a ridiculously stressful career, especially the last few months.

 

[SpursGyal]

It’s very unlikely they will find her hat in the search of the river, as according to police releases, she wasn’t wearing one.

Nicola is white, 5ft 3ins tall, with light brown shoulder-length hair. She speaks with an Essex accent. She was last seen wearing a long black gilet jacket with a hood, black jeans and olive-green ankle wellies. Her hair was tied into a ponytail.

Lancashire Constabulary - UPDATE: Witness found as search for missing Nicola continues

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

www.lancashire.police.uk

 

[JimmyBets]

How likely is it the the empty house fits into this since it's on the opposite side of the river? Unlikely NB was taken there.

The police would surely have searched that house on Saturday. If they didn’t then surely they searched it after the volunteer search team accessed the grounds and came across the owner who “checked inside”. I don’t think the house fits but it certainly should have been checked off by police by now

 

[Tortoise]

It’s very unlikely they will find her hat in the search of the river, as according to police releases, she wasn’t wearing one.

Nicola is white, 5ft 3ins tall, with light brown shoulder-length hair. She speaks with an Essex accent. She was last seen wearing a long black gilet jacket with a hood, black jeans and olive-green ankle wellies. Her hair was tied into a ponytail.

Lancashire Constabulary - UPDATE: Witness found as search for missing Nicola continues

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

www.lancashire.police.uk

Well spotted!

 

[rhino]

Something bit odd about caravan site owner "having to be at an appointment" yet walking by the river, no dog

What is ‘odd’? Are only people with dogs supposed to go for walks?

I (dogless) routinely go walking before, after, between work stuff. Fit them on whenever I can, wherever I can. Even just 10 minutes before my next appointment.

Re: the ‘abandoned’ house discussion, I know if I owned property or land near where someone had gone missing, I would definitely head over to have a good search myself. I find it quite possible that the property owner here has done likewise and his presence is not nefarious.

 

[Grouse]

I am beginning sadly to feel something nefarious has happened here.
Ok - night before she works late in Garstang and her parents look after the children ( where was PA ? ) Gets an email from her sister asking about Spa treatments that she doesn’t reply to ( maybe asleep ) next morning ( Friday ) she takes her children to school with willow in the car also, drops them off, leaves her car at school and sets off on her walk. 9.01am logs into the team meeting and is on mute. She is seen laughing and joking by other parents at the school. Walks towards her usual walk down by the river with willow on harness and lead, presumably listening in still on the zoom call.
Spotted at 9.15 THEN according to various reports it gets muddled. Owner of the caravan park spots willow off lead and leash dry and agitated. Ties her to the bench as she has an appointment and calls her daughter who is a friend of NB as she recognises vaguely willow. Daughter comes down and with another dog walker oresent they notice the phone and the female recognises the screensaver and calls PA who immediately comes to the river ( so they have two cars as it’s 3 miles away ) and calls the police. I suspect that whoever came to the scene innocently afterwards put the lead, leash and phone on the bench. I don’t think she is in the water and I don’t think willow ever was either as she was dry. My cocker spaniel loves swimming but I walk by a local canal most days and apart from falling in once has never gone in. He doesn’t like to “ launch “ into water only be able to walk into it if you get my drift.
Have I got this scenario wrong ?
JMO

Primary school tends to finish around 3PM so that's when the kids will have been collected and looked after by grandparents. So "works late" could have just meant say 6PM instead of 5:30PM in order to take the call from the client. It's not unlikely that PA was also working at that time or even later, given that child care was sorted, as per their usual Thursday arrangement.

This sort of thing is quite common especially in families who are close/live near each other. NB is from Essex and her parents live close by so presumably they moved to the area to be close to NB and granddaughters?

 

[DazN]

on hold with lancs police as we speak to inform them unless someone else has not already.

It's not the opposite side. It's the side with the path and the bench.

 

[Villa1]

So, if we table the 'going into the water' (for whatever reason) theory for a moment. What are peoples other theories or scenarios as to where she's got to for a week plus, who else is involved (hypothetically) and if on her own accord, why and how did she manage it?

IMO IF she left of her own accord with no sort of breakdown ,but just wanted out of her life she would have to be a master planner . The lengths you would have to to to not be seen , money put aside, vehicles waiting for you the list goes on . You can't move these days without being caught on a camera albeit on the roads , shops , house cameras right down to people just taking pics and film on their phones . How would you get away with it with all the coverage you are now in people's homes on tv and in the papers . I just can't see it .
If she had some sort of mental breakdown would she be in any state to be hiding herself away ? I imagine someone just walking about not really knowing what they are doing and people would notice you more maybe ? .
For me it's the worst case scenario, but how that has happened is still a mystery . It just goes round and round in your head and doesn't really get any clearer for me .
JMO

 

[GML1981]

Nicola Bulley search: Latest on police search for missing mother
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/live/article-11705179/Nicola-Bulley-search-updates-Latest-police-search-missing-mother.html?ito=native_share_article-