I have been following this case closely since a friend shared the lancs police appeal on Saturday. I am from Lancashire originally but no longer live there. Just a few thoughts:
If she is in the river, then either:
1. She’s fallen in by accident
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3. She’s been pushed in or attacked and then put in the river
Based on what I’ve read, I think 2 is unlikely. <modsnip>
It’s quite a tight time frame based on the latest police timeline. She was seen sometime after 9am (9.10 approx) in the top field by someone who knew her, exercising Willow. We know she didn’t log out of the work teams call which finished at 9.30, so we can assume she was no longer with her phone by then. So that’s a 20-30min max time frame for something to happen to her. She could have slipped and fallen into the river in that time of course, it only takes a split second to fall in. But JMOO that seems unlikely because I think the dog would have been in too, either before (so NB went in to get her) or after (if NB fell in). The dog was found on her own at 9.35, dry, so we know the dog hadn’t been in the water.
There’s also no evidence of a slip into the water, as far as we know anyway. She could have been near the edge and had a medical episode and fallen in, which would be super unlucky. Or been pushed in. The police work that we are aware of has focussed on the river so they must think they’re is a good chance she’s in the river. Whether that is because they have evidence to suggest she’s in there or just because it’s an obvious possibility given where her dog and phone were found, I don’t know.
I do find it odd that they haven’t found her if she’s in the river. They seem to have started looking there pretty quickly, it’s a shallow river, very calm from what I understand, so you’d think they would have found something by now.
-I am surprised that the police seemed to rule out 3rd party involvement so early. There are other examples of women appearing to simply vanish and often 3rd parties are involved, eg the lindsay birkbeck case in summer 2019, which happened not a million miles away from this one. She was walking in a secluded area and just vanished. If I recall correctly the police in that one initially seemed to think no 3rd party involvement too, for several days, and instead focussed on appealing for Lindsay to come home (which interestingly hasn’t happened here, AFAIK). That was despite, as came out in the trial, other women in the area being followed that same day and telling the police so. So IMO it’s almost like the police say they rule out 3rd party involvement unless they have som positive evidence of this, which obviously isn’t always the case even when it subsequently turns out there was.
I hope the police are looking into those staying at the caravan site/ camping nearby. It seems from the latest appeal and CCTV image released that they are now scouring local footage, I wonder if because the longer they don’t find her in the river, the more likely it is that she isn’t in there. I find it surprising that the witness they are now searching for hasn’t come forward before now given the press coverage this has received and the time she was there, ie within the same general time as NB went missing. If she’s local wouldn’t they be able to find out quickly who she is? It’s a small village and if she’s often there then surely other dog walkers would know, and clearly they have spoken to a number of them as witnesses? All JMOO.