Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[themagiceye]

Like so many others, I can't stop thinking about Nicola and what might have happened to her.

My most recent thoughts are that her clothes - long black and green items that conceal her almost completely - could not be more suited to making her hard to spot in a murky river.

Also, I still find it odd that the police - as right as they probably are - immediately and publicly stated that a lone female had gone missing with no 3rd party involvement. What was it that made them so sure? No witnesses had been interviewed at that point and so on. They mentioned NB's connections to other areas. I do think that early on, LE might have considered NB choosing to walk away, something that her sister echoed in her own words. This is no criticism in any sense - I think the police are doing an excellent job and the top-down leadership is really impressive and compassionate. I'm just genuinely curious about what made them SO certain, when the initial scenario must have seemed ambiguous at best. MOO

I believe one of the common techniques used by the police in certain complex cases is to announce no third-party involvement / suspicious circumstances, to allow them to properly monitor any persons-of-interest. Publically stating that a case was suspicious could make the investigation significantly more challenging, until such times as the level of evidence would allow an arrest.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

hi. new to this site. Tried going through all the posts on NB but not sure if the following have been asked and answered - if so, please direct me as such.
1. I get that the 'most likely' possibility is accidentally falling into river BUT isn't this all based on where phone, lead and harness was?
On this point, yes it Looks like NB fell into river but there is no evidence of slip and IMO as a dog owner of similar breed, im almost certain the dog would have sensed danger and jumped in. If the dog was separated from owner then yes it may not have entered river but sat by where NB's scent was (harness/phone/bench/gate - wherever).
2. How do they KNOW she was on bench at all. Witnesses apparently indicate she was in fields etc but does it state anywhere that she left fields and conclusively went to bench? Just because lead/phone etc was on or around bench doesnt exclude them being placed there by someone else.The dog, if unable to locate owner, would sniff out its lead and harness and probably be running between in distress
3. If there is no CCTV at one exit, then isnt it feasible that someone knew that (potentially even NB)

The fact the dog was near the gate and not barking at the water means the dog thinks NB is on the other side of the gate or didn’t see NB fall in

 

[ChocolateChip]

I guess it’s different from person to person. I myself do make some kind of noise when falling/tripping whatever. But thank you for your input

I too am verbal when falling

 

[Firstsnow4]

Just going back to the likely theory that she fell into the water - I hate saying this but if she had fallen headfirst into shallow water is there any chance she may have hit the floor and broken her neck causing instant paralysis. Sorry I hate saying it - but just coming up with alternative ideas, especially if she was a good swimmer. MOO.

 

[msmarple99]

The fact the dog was near the gate and not barking at the water means the dog thinks NB is on the other side of the gate or didn’t see NB fall in

Yes if that is is in fact where Willow was or running back &forth IMO

 

[Blamhappy]

I do when I trip over...

I guess it’s different from person to person. I myself do make some kind of noise when falling/tripping whatever. But thank you for your inpu

 

[Firstsnow4]

I too am verbal when falling

I slipped down the stairs recently and I made a hell of a yell - and continued making noise for another 5 mins - my three year old was in tears as he saw it all. I know this doesn’t compare to falling in water obviously.

 

[Huklyh456]

It's not the case that anyone that falls into water in the winter dies, it depends on the circumstances and how the body reacts, the shock response can in some people paralyse their muscles too. That very thing happend in a body of water where I live in the summer just gone. The temperature difference paralysed his muscles and he drowned not being able to help himself. It's not a statement, cold water shock is a very real thing. It's shocking to me that more people do not know about the dangers of cold water, there needs to be more education right from the start in schools in my opinion.

I can't answer the question regarding why her body would disappear so fast. I'm personally not certain shes in the water.

You're absolutely right about cold water shock, I'm sorry I might have expressed myself badly. I'm not doubting that cold water shock is a thing, however as we seem to be in agreement fortunately not everyone who falls into water in the winter dies instantly. What I'm trying to say is that whilst the drowning hypothesis seems absolutely possible, and maybe probable given what we know, it doesn't strike me as 100% certain and obvious that that must be the answer.

 

[DFR3217]

Was anything said about location information from her Fitbit? I've never owned one of these so I've no idea whether it would be useful or not, in this respect. But assuming she did fall into the river, is there any likelihood it would have given sufficient information for them to assume she was still near the river?

 

[kittythehare]

There are 2 possible exits that lead onto Garstang Road.
1 - through Wyreside caravan park and up Allotment Lane.
2 - there is what appears to be a “service road” running through Rowanwater. This road is unnamed on Google map. It splits into to two. The part of the road furthest right on the map - if you zoom in on the end of this road there are what appear to be a row of parking spaces. This is approximately 50 metres from where NB was last physically seen in the higher field.

(Apologies I couldn’t edit your map to circle these areas but I’m sure this makes sense)

Is this Garstang lane?

Garstang Rd · Preston, UK

Preston, UK

www.google.com

 

[IKnowNowt]

Just going back to the likely theory that she fell into the water - I hate saying this but if she had fallen headfirst into shallow water is there any chance she may have hit the floor and broken her neck causing instant paralysis. Sorry I hate saying it - but just coming up with alternative ideas, especially if she was a good swimmer. MOO.

I would think it possible but unlikely as the water would cushion the blow. I
She may have hit her head on the steps at the river's edge though.

Edit, apologies for the double copy.

 

[dancenog]

Just going back to the likely theory that she fell into the water - I hate saying this but if she had fallen headfirst into shallow water is there any chance she may have hit the floor and broken her neck causing instant paralysis. Sorry I hate saying it - but just coming up with alternative ideas, especially if she was a good swimmer. MOO.

yes agree, BUT IMO Willow would have gone in after her

 

[Deleted member 240694]

Re- “Our main working hypothesis therefore is that Nicola has sadly fallen into the river, that there is no 3rd party or criminal involvement & that this is not suspicious but a tragic case of a missing person.”... Supt. Sally Riley.

While I agree with Supt. Riley that this is a tragic case of a missing person, I cannot agree, at this point, that this case does not remain suspicious. I have a number of factual reasons for this, including extensive professional searches of the river have failed to support LE's main - & apparently only - working hypothesis - & the last known sighting of NB was at 9.10am, well away from the bench & river. In ruling out the possibility that the phone & Willow could not have been placed in the bench area by a 3rd party suggests LE are NOT keeping an open mind on what has happened to NB. While I am anxious to support LE at every opportunity, it is with some disquiet that I have reservations that their rigid thinking from the outset on what has happened to NB, may not be in the public interest, nor that of her family. All IMO.

 

[Bluesleuth66]

Hello all - New to this site and been following these threads all day!

Having read about half the total comments I guess, there are some <modsnip> well considered and structured theories. For what it's worth I am in the 'tragic accident' camp, and to answer some of the questions about how and what may have happened, without speculating as to the reason she was on the steps but probably dog related, I think it's quite feasible she may have slipped on the steps with her feet flying out from under, smacked her coccyx on the step (very painful) and possibly also her head, and the 'submarined', as it were, feet first under the water. I know from experience one doesn't automatically shout out when this happens and the shock, pain, cold, restrictive clothing and current would swiftly take her.

Regarding the phone, it would be quite logical, would it not, for her to leave it on the bench if she thought there was any possibility of it accidentally falling into the river while she was doing whatever it was.

All very subjective of course but based on what I've read or heard this seems a plausible explanation I've not seen elsewhere. I'm sure the police will have considered it or a variation though.

 

[dancenog]

Re- “Our main working hypothesis therefore is that Nicola has sadly fallen into the river, that there is no 3rd party or criminal involvement & that this is not suspicious but a tragic case of a missing person.”... Supt. Sally Riley.

While I agree with Supt. Riley that this is a tragic case of a missing person, I cannot agree, at this point, that this case does not remain suspicious. I have a number of factual reasons for this, including extensive professional searches of the river have failed to support LE's main - & apparently only - working hypothesis - & the last known sighting of NB was at 9.10am, well away from the bench & river. In ruling out the possibility that the phone & Willow could not have been placed in the bench area by a 3rd party suggests LE are NOT keeping an open mind on what has happened to NB. While I am anxious to support LE at every opportunity, it is with some disquiet that I have reservations that their rigid thinking from the outset on what has happened to NB, may not be in the public interest, nor that of her family. All IMO.

agreed

 

[PandaMarch]

Two unrelated things I have thought - and apols if these have been said, I haven’t read all the comments since the press conference:

1. From the BBC News reporting: ‘Supt Riley urged people to "pay heed to those very specific clothing descriptions" and advised the public to "keep themselves safe" in the search for Ms Bulley.’

Without wanting to sound flippant, if someone spotted poor Nicola in the river, they probably wouldn’t need really accurate clothing descriptions - there is unlikely to be more than one person there to be spotted.

Unless this is to avoid lots of calls where people have seen someone resembling/dressed like Nicola walking about. Which could be a possibility. But also speaks to a glimmer of hope that they may think she’s out there to be seen..?

Nicola Bulley: Missing mother fell in river, police believe Nicola Bulley: Missing mother fell in river, police believe

2. Something that only just occurred to me - potentially Nicola is on her phone, not looking at Willow. Suddenly looks up, Willow not in sight.

Nicola assumes Willow is in the water (wouldn’t have heard a splash as on conference call) panics, leaves phone, can’t see Willow in water, leans over the bit where there’s an overhang and topples in from there.

Would explain Willow being dry and there being no skid marks as she would have fallen straight from the edge of the bank.

Massively upsetting whatever and however it’s happened. Poor Nicola and family.

I think the clothes thing is more likely to be it might give an indication of whereabouts in the river she is tbh

 

[geddis]

I think we could all accept that if NB- a fit, experienced dog walker familiar with the area- fell accidentally into the river then she was the tragic victim of outrageous misfortune.

We now have to add to that another item of serious misfortune. It seems the police have pulled out all the stops in this enquiry yet they are no further forward in establishing what befell NB than they were one week ago. Under the glare of intense media scrutiny they are left with little more than supposition based not on evidence, but lack of evidence.

I found the warning by the superintendent not to visit the river at night since they might be at risk near the water or face 'other dangers' peculiar.

 

[UK Girl]

hi. new to this site. Tried going through all the posts on NB but not sure if the following have been asked and answered - if so, please direct me as such.
1. I get that the 'most likely' possibility is accidentally falling into river BUT isn't this all based on where phone, lead and harness was?
On this point, yes it Looks like NB fell into river but there is no evidence of slip and IMO as a dog owner of similar breed, im almost certain the dog would have sensed danger and jumped in. If the dog was separated from owner then yes it may not have entered river but sat by where NB's scent was (harness/phone/bench/gate - wherever).
2. How do they KNOW she was on bench at all. Witnesses apparently indicate she was in fields etc but does it state anywhere that she left fields and conclusively went to bench? Just because lead/phone etc was on or around bench doesnt exclude them being placed there by someone else.The dog, if unable to locate owner, would sniff out its lead and harness and probably be running between in distress
3. If there is no CCTV at one exit, then isnt it feasible that someone knew that (potentially even NB)

Hi I also had a Springer til recently and honestly I dont get it as these dogs love the water. It was so hard to keep her out of the water and whilst I can believe Willow would have jumped in the water when she reached it, considering there are photos of her in the water she obviously wasnt afraid of it I find it hard to understand that IF Nicola went in the water how come she didnt follow her in there?

 

[Cuko]

Was anything said about location information from her Fitbit? I've never owned one of these so I've no idea whether it would be useful or not, in this respect. But assuming she did fall into the river, is there any likelihood it would have given sufficient information for them to assume she was still near the river?

I think the police superintendent said they were aware of the Fitbit and were checking data.

 

[Dixie007]

Not seen it mentioned but does anyone know the actual temperature of the water in the river?
I have dived into my swimming pool with the water at 9C. Yes it was cold and a bit of a shock but I was able to swim around with no ill effects and survived unscathed.
I believe the river will be some degrees colder and totally different circumstances. I just wondered if these few degrees can really make such a difference to survivability - assuming that it was the temperature of the water which caused the problems.

I have stated before that I do not believe NB is in the river though, or if she is, then it was not an accident - just my opinion.