Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[Taskforce88]

Hmm, thats true

The ground may have been hard and no noticeable marks left?

 

[Huklyh456]

So I don't want to come across as disrespectful or something but looking at various pictures of the river, the weir, as well as google satellite, I find it surprising that a healthy, relatively fit woman should have died and been swept away such that a very extensive SAR effort wouldn't have uncovered at least something. The river has lots of little islands and banks. Yes, the cold, the heavy clothing, but with all respect, I find it fair to say that it seems surprising. Also as another poster has mentioned, she would have been very familiar with the situation and would have been very conscious about avoiding falling in, even if only because of the annoyance (had she not considered it as mortally dangerous).

 

[themagiceye]

I can't get the image of Willow anxiously going between the bench and gate out of my mind. Was it because that was the usual exit? Was it because she could still detect the scent of them arriving? Or was there fresh scent of NB leaving through the gate?

I accept the probability that this was a tragic accident and NB fell into the water, either where the bench is or further along, but can't help wondering why Willow was going between the bench and gate? Why not run into the field to look for her, or further along the riverbank? It's as if she picked up NB's scent at the gate.

Or followed someone else who was familiar.

 

[Lilly b]

Two unrelated things I have thought - and apols if these have been said, I haven’t read all the comments since the press conference:

1. From the BBC News reporting: ‘Supt Riley urged people to "pay heed to those very specific clothing descriptions" and advised the public to "keep themselves safe" in the search for Ms Bulley.’

Without wanting to sound flippant, if someone spotted poor Nicola in the river, they probably wouldn’t need really accurate clothing descriptions - there is unlikely to be more than one person there to be spotted.

Unless this is to avoid lots of calls where people have seen someone resembling/dressed like Nicola walking about. Which could be a possibility. But also speaks to a glimmer of hope that they may think she’s out there to be seen..?

Nicola Bulley: Missing mother fell in river, police believe Nicola Bulley: Missing mother fell in river, police believe

2. Something that only just occurred to me - potentially Nicola is on her phone, not looking at Willow. Suddenly looks up, Willow not in sight.

Nicola assumes Willow is in the water (wouldn’t have heard a splash as on conference call) panics, leaves phone, can’t see Willow in water, leans over the bit where there’s an overhang and topples in from there.

Would explain Willow being dry and there being no skid marks as she would have fallen straight from the edge of the bank.

Massively upsetting whatever and however it’s happened. Poor Nicola and family.

But don't forget, this is where they walk all the time, that type of dog would run off, but defo run back again, you would look round the area and shout for willow, and I'd presume this dog would come back when called, and the dog can swim, many pictures on her FB, with willow in the water

 

[jackal67]

What about that bag of evidence from the car park? That wasn’t mentioned at the police conference.

It may not be relevant to this case

 

[Taskforce88]

Same here, in correlation with the description of the dog running between the bench area and the gate at the other end of the field.

Was it not running between the bench and the river?

 

[Blamhappy]

MOO! Hi I've been lurking because, this lady is the same age as me, her kids are the same age as mine, I'm a similar height and build, and my closest relative lives in Abbeystead. I want to cry everyday.

I understand the working theory of falling in the river, but we do a duck race on a much bigger and faster river than the Wyre every year. The ducks never make it to the end without poking. They sink, they get caught in reeds, they get beached on banks. I am finding it so hard to believe after a week of intense searching (and police, not amateurs looking for ducks) they haven't found ANYTHING. No hair, no shoe, not her car keys or rubbish from her pocket...not even the "ball"? I understand its tidal further down, but there's a weir and at least one island between the spot and the sea, and its not the Thames, its barely waist deep.

I have been watching with increased unease the timeline as well, as others have said, if you found a dog and a phone on a bench by a river, wouldn't you phone 999? It all seems a bit fluid, I'm not saying suspicious at all, I just think I won't be surprised if we find the phone and dog were found *advertiser censored* later than stated.

Finally today they said she was wearing a fitbit, and if I understood rightly the timeline and maps come from the phone details not witnesses. So I am presuming she never left the field according to her data line, as I believe you can reasonably track fitbits? But they are waterproof to like 50m so you can swim with them, so surely they would see her floating down the river?

The whole thing is

I can't get the image of Willow anxiously going between the bench and gate out of my mind. Was it because that was the usual exit? Was it because she could still detect the scent of them arriving? Or was there fresh scent of NB leaving through the gate?

I accept the probability that this was a tragic accident and NB fell into the water, either where the bench is or further along, but can't help wondering why Willow was going between the bench and gate? Why not run into the field to look for her, or further along the riverbank? It's as if she picked up NB's scent at the gate.

A few people have already addressed this. It seems that the dog was located between the two, not running back and forth. It was a way of describing where the dog was found.

Edit: I didn't mean to quote the top post. It's not supposed to be here.

 

[Lincoln34]

Definitely the visions of a coat then a long length gilet over the top… that’s a heavy thing once wet isn’t it. Poor lady unless she had fainted or passed out/collapsed she must have been terrified. Even for a short second or so. Perhaps she did that thing where you feet go from underneath you, she landed hard on her bum/back, was in agony and add to that slipping into the river and the cold taking over. I can almost picture it now this is distressing.

Still surprised no one saw her floating or saw anything in river downstream. Walking, I instinctively look at rivers as it’s quite mesmerising.

There is an excellent lecture from Gresham College , Oxford about rivers and forensics . Link at end below summary. Fascinating . Cutting edge science

Summary - Gresham lecture link

 

[SuzyQ70]

Was it not running between the bench and the river?

Sure she said it was between the gate and bench

 

[Dowls90]

So I don't want to come across as disrespectful or something but looking at various pictures of the river, the weir, as well as google satellite, I find it surprising that a healthy, relatively fit woman should have died and been swept away such that a very extensive SAR effort wouldn't have uncovered at least something. The river has lots of little islands and banks. Yes, the cold, the heavy clothing, but with all respect, I find it fair to say that it seems surprising. Also as another poster has mentioned, she would have been very familiar with the situation and would have been very conscious about avoiding falling in, even if only because of the annoyance (had she not considered it as mortally dangerous).

What is cold water shock?​

Cold water shock causes involuntary body reactions that can be as swift as they are deadly – meaning your ability to swim well has no impact on your survival. It is far deadlier than Hypothermia, yet far less understood by boaters.

Cold water shock is a real danger in temperatures below 15°C. If you do find yourself in the water, the right clothing and a lifejacket may save your life.

When the body is immersed in cold water, your core temperature immediately drops prompting a number of physiological responses. These responses rapidly incapacitate you, which can result in fatalities.

What happens with cold water shock?​

When experiencing cold water shock, the biggest danger is inhaling water and drowning. Cold water shock triggers hyperventilation, an immediate loss in breathing control, which causes water to be inhaled into the lungs.

Sudden immersion in cold water drastically reduces your ability to hold your breath, from a minute typically down to around 10 seconds. Cold water in your ears can also cause vertigo and disorientation, resulting in failure to differentiate between up and down when submerged.

Cold water shock is a danger in water below 15°C, which is the summertime average around the UK coast. To help protect yourself, it’s important to think carefully about the clothing you wear – a dry suit will provide additional protection, particularly in very cold water. Additionally, a correctly fitted life jacket will also help you remain calm and afloat in the event of falling overboard.

Cold Water Shock

Cold water shock is a real danger in water below 15°C, resulting in involuntary bodily reflexes when suddenly submerged in cold water.

www.rya.org.uk

 

[msmarple99]

Was it not running between the bench and the river?

Oh there is so much contradiction

 

[Pinkizzy]

If you fell down a bank, wouldn't you shriek or say something?

 

[Nancy Drew 21]

Apologies if someone has already mentioned this, but Sky News has just run a very informative interview with a forensic diving/water investigation expert. He says that in his many years of experience, when a dog owner falls into the water, he has never once known a situation where the dog has left the precise spot where its owner went in. I found that interesting.

I just watched it and thought exactly the same thing, especially as it was mentioned in the press conference that Willow was found running between the gate and the bench.

 

[jackal67]

Yes - that bothers me tbh. Movement of someone’s phone doesn’t mean they were the ones moving it. It’s the most likely scenario but you can’t discount everything else.

Tbh I just feel utterly devastated for her and her family. If she did go in the river it means in the space of 15 mins she was in that water, submerged, rendered unconscious enough not to scream for her life and splash and make as much as possible noise and not one person in that area seen/heard her. Such such bad luck if that is the case.

It is still possible that she may have gone into the river by choice too. Horrible thought but it happens a lot. If it was an accidental fall which I believe it was ,I guess there will be no way of telling which it was , if and when she is eventually found. MOO

 

[Beginnersleuth]

Or followed someone else who was familiar.

I feel like given where the dog was, that maybe she left her phone for a mo to go and help someone beyond the gate and left the dog and phone behind thinking it would literally be a minute. Wonder if anything happened up that way between the gate near the bench and the caravan park/allotment lane.
Have always thought statistically that falling in accident more likely but just have query whether possible to have left on foot beyond the gate - initially thinking would be a few seconds but maybe made to walk up towards caravan park or something?

 

[JimmyBets]

JimmyBets - are you able to circle on a map the two exits you mention?
I've just re-watched the daily mail walk through:

Video tracks Nicola Bulley's journey to bench where phone was found

The hunt for Nicola Bulley entered a seventh day today as specialist diving teams continue attempts to trace the missing mortgage adviser after she vanished along the River Wyre in Lancashire.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It only took 8 minutes to complete the whole journey.
So an exit via Garstang Road through the caravan park would be 3-4mins?
The top exit, maybe 6 mins?

View attachment 399895

There are 2 possible exits that lead onto Garstang Road.
1 - through Wyreside caravan park and up Allotment Lane.
2 - there is what appears to be a “service road” running through Rowanwater. This road is unnamed on Google map. It splits into to two. The part of the road furthest right on the map - if you zoom in on the end of this road there are what appear to be a row of parking spaces. This is approximately 50 metres from where NB was last physically seen in the higher field.

(Apologies I couldn’t edit your map to circle these areas but I’m sure this makes sense)

 

[Mexx]

Sorry if I'm repeating myself, but according to Police the last time Nicola was seen was 9.10 in upper field. Explanations for phone,dog,harness, lead, bench IMO is speculation; Police have no other alternative evidence, does not mean it does not exist. Witness statement: she was seen alive & well at 9.10. Now, it could well be she walked or ran down the field (Willow off harness) placed her phone on bench, fell into river etc. etc. BUT last known sighting was 9.10

 

[themagiceye]

Oh there is so much contradiction

Yes, which doesn't help.

I just watched it and thought exactly the same thing, especially as it was mentioned in the press conference that Willow was found running between the gate and the bench.

And if you saw the expert on Sky News after the repeat of the press conference he said very specifically that he has never been at a scene where the dog wasn't found sitting by the water entry point.

That could simply mean the dog did not see NB enter the water, but it could also mean that the dog was running in a confused/agitated state between two things familiar to it.

 

[Huklyh456]

What is cold water shock?​

Cold water shock causes involuntary body reactions that can be as swift as they are deadly – meaning your ability to swim well has no impact on your survival. It is far deadlier than Hypothermia, yet far less understood by boaters.

Cold water shock is a real danger in temperatures below 15°C. If you do find yourself in the water, the right clothing and a lifejacket may save your life.

When the body is immersed in cold water, your core temperature immediately drops prompting a number of physiological responses. These responses rapidly incapacitate you, which can result in fatalities.

What happens with cold water shock?​

When experiencing cold water shock, the biggest danger is inhaling water and drowning. Cold water shock triggers hyperventilation, an immediate loss in breathing control, which causes water to be inhaled into the lungs.

Sudden immersion in cold water drastically reduces your ability to hold your breath, from a minute typically down to around 10 seconds. Cold water in your ears can also cause vertigo and disorientation, resulting in failure to differentiate between up and down when submerged.

Cold water shock is a danger in water below 15°C, which is the summertime average around the UK coast. To help protect yourself, it’s important to think carefully about the clothing you wear – a dry suit will provide additional protection, particularly in very cold water. Additionally, a correctly fitted life jacket will also help you remain calm and afloat in the event of falling overboard.

Cold Water Shock

Cold water shock is a real danger in water below 15°C, resulting in involuntary bodily reflexes when suddenly submerged in cold water.

www.rya.org.uk

Thank you for your reply. Yes I understand that and you have a point. Having said that, even if we accept this and basically say, anyone who falls into water in winter dies pretty instantly (and - with the utmost respect - that appears a strong statement to me, there are winter swimmers and people jumping into ice baths in thermal baths etc), the next question is how did the body disappear so fast and without any trace.

 

[Taskforce88]

Sorry if I'm repeating myself, but according to Police the last time Nicola was seen was 9.10 in upper field. Explanations for phone,dog,harness, lead, bench IMO is speculation; Police have no other alternative evidence, does not mean it does not exist. Witness statement: she was seen alive & well at 9.10. Now, it could well be she walked or ran down the field (Willow off harness) placed her phone on bench, fell into river etc. etc. BUT last known sighting was 9.10

The last sighting was 9.10 assuming that the witness is correct. This was near the 'beachy' area that appears in a few of NB photos.