Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[EH_13]

New member here. The hypothesis of NB falling into the water seems to be based more on the fact that there is no evidence suggest she left the area, as suggested by LE on this afternoon's update. They did, however, mention that there was one route that they are yet to retrieve/ analyse relevant footage. But given their confidence in the water hypothesis, presumably they don't expect this to throw up any new, compelling leads?

 

[tor96]

The fitbit is the key, obviously mine is connected to my phone, that's probably how they know where and when the phone was placed down on the bench according to the police statement this afternoon, it should also show heart rate etc so guessing this is why no third party is involved, in such a short space of time. It very unfortunately takes at least 8 days, weeks for a body to submerge, very sad and hopefully wrong

 

[JennieM]

1. Garstang Road seems quite far away on google maps from the field NB was spotted.

2. If NB accidentally fell into the water and she knew she was in trouble, if she had commanded Willow to stay put because she didn't want the dog to get in trouble too, in a situation like that would a dog listen to the command or react on instinct and jump in?

 

[infinit]

I thought of that but springers are hunters primarily...
I THINK she would have tracked her to the water edge..
I KNOW she would have jumped in had she known Nicola was in the water.
I'm trying to speak only from my own experience and of course I've never hidden from a springer in the water so I can only think and not say for sure.
They're hunters because it's in their nature even if they have never been trained with a gun.. it's innate.

Would they still do so even with the water temperature? I thought water close to freezing is dangerous for a dog, though I guess such trivialities might not stop it.

 

[themagiceye]

Unfortunately I can’t help you with the water temperature but it’ll be pretty much as you say, some degrees colder. However I fully agree with you that it seems a bit surprising how it seems to be assumed that anyone coming into contact with cold water would instantly die or at least get incapacitated. It is certainly (sadly) possible that that happens, that people react with shock and drown. However the overall situation - relatively fit, not very old person, with no known medical issues, very, even extremely familiar with the precise circumstances of the location, no skid marks, no body, no traces whatsoever, and a relatively not so dangerous seeming river- I find it fair to say that it doesn’t seem the 100% conclusive answer.

I would back this up too. There does seem to be a broad assumption that a fall into the water would only have one outcome. This isn't the case. If anything, it's just one potential conclusion of the whole situation, and there are a spectrum of other things that could happen outwith that.

This assumption also excludes a scenario where she enters the water as a result of an external factor. The point being that there is currently no evidence (publically) that she has fallen into the water, yet there are a number of details which do at least make another scenario possible - the location of the last sighting, the timings, the phone, the harness/lead, the dog apparently agitated between the gate and the river, one entrance/exit from the area unnaccounted for, and so on.

 

[geddis]

Regarding searches, the actual words at the Press Conference were a 1 mile radius 'including open ground, empty buildings and their gardens.'
That doesn't preclude caravans but it would have been reassuring to hear them included.

 

[Sjöberg]

whilst I can believe Willow would have jumped in the water when she reached it, considering there are photos of her in the water she obviously wasnt afraid of it I find it hard to understand that IF Nicola went in the water how come she didnt follow her in there?

there are myriads of reasons why Nicole might have entered the water but absolutely none for Willow staying out

I have a theory about that. Many dogs (mine included, a distant spaniel family member) LOVE going to the water - as long as going to the water means walking into it, waddling around and then eventually swimming. But at least my dog does not like to jump into the water at all, especially not from a noticeable height. We had to especially train her so that she would dare to jump from a very low boat bridge (ca 20 cm from water) into the same very pond that she liked so swim in if entering from the shore. She was running back and forth on the boat bridge, panicky, not daring to jump (like kinda trying but not really pushing off), and for a long time not even trying to cheat and get to the Favourite Toy™ by running off the bridge and entering from the ground like she had done before! I get a feeling that if NB did fall in from a noticeable height (and then disappeared!) then running back and forth and not knowing how to follow her could be a thing.

 

[kittythehare]

Would they still do so even with the water temperature? I thought water close to freezing is dangerous for a dog, though I guess such trivialities might not stop it.

They would do it in the coldest of days, frost snow whatever.. not all dogs.
It's their thing, their happy place.
She was off lead, nothing to stop her.

 

[UK Girl]

I thought of that but springers are hunters primarily...
I THINK she would have tracked her to the water edge..
I KNOW she would have jumped in had she known Nicola was in the water.
I'm trying to speak only from my own experience and of course I've never hidden from a springer in the water so I can only think and not say for sure.
They're hunters because it's in their nature even if they have never been trained with a gun.. it's innate.

they are obsessed with the water pure and simple

My husband used to take ours fishing and keeping her out of the lake was pretty damn hard tbh

 

[karakuchi]

Bringing some focus back to this thread:

The one lead the police themselves have appealed for is:
They have CCTV of every entrance and exit apart from lanes that exit to Garstang Road.
This at the moment is the missing link.

Speculating on how quickly someone dies in water at this point is moot.
There is a missing piece of the puzzle.

If anyone wants to find the site on google maps, easiest to search for:
Wyreside Farm Caravan Park.
Here is a link: Wyreside Farm Caravan Park · Allotment Ln, St Michael's on Wyre, Preston PR3 0TZ, United Kingdom

 

[abcd123]

The issue for me with the theory she fell into the river is the weir.

Weir's are designed to manage the flow of water in a river. Water builds up behind them and is regulated over and down into the section below. Therefore if the river upstream is low and slow, the flow of water over the weir is minimal.

There wasn't much rain leading up to NB's disappearance and hence the level of the river above the weir was fairly low.

Additionally around 9am the tide was also around low. Coupled with the moon phase (quarter moon) this would mean the river level below the weir would be around its lowest point for the month.

As you can see from the below picture (google maps) the water level below the weir doesn't seem like a naturally deep section (granted it looks like taken in summer but the tidal conditions should likely replicate this).

For me it seems implausible that the river had the depth and power to take a body past this point. Granted that as the tide filled one could be swept away but this would take a few hours for the water to rise and in daylight a body would surely have been spotted.

(all my own opinion but an educated one having fished in similar rivers for years).

Hope i'm wrong and shes found safe.

 

[Taskforce88]

The police officer said in the press conference that they had searched that area so extensively they were sure she wasn't there [now]

Yep, probably swept further down and beyond the weir.

 

[Taskforce88]

I’m sorry to ask this question, I don’t know if it as been asked already. But is there actual credible evidence that NB was actually seen or is it just from a witness?

Well, the witnesses could have been mistaken or something else...

 

[kittythehare]

they are obsessed with the water pure and simple

My husband used to take ours fishing and keeping her out of the lake was pretty damn hard tbh

I can imagine...almost impossible!

 

[karakuchi]

Garstang road is about a 5 or 6 minute walk from the bench.

 

[Officer Dibble]

Can anyone confirm if the cctv on the exits cover people on foot and/or vehicles?

For example, what if someone was concealed in a vehicle? Has this possibility been completely ruled out now? (Apart from the exit with no cctv).

Also, has it been mentioned if the camping pods etc have been thoroughly searched? Or would the cctv show if she had gone that way?

if all the above is confirmed, eg cctv shows no people leaving on foot, and no suspicious vehicles left the exits, then I can see why the police are leaning towards the river.

Does it completely rule out 3rd party involvement though?

BBM. Supt Riley said that all empty buildings had been searched, so I assume they searched those too. JMO

 

[kittythehare]

1. Garstang Road seems quite far away on google maps from the field NB was spotted.

2. If NB accidentally fell into the water and she knew she was in trouble, if she had commanded Willow to stay put because she didn't want the dog to get in trouble too, in a situation like that would a dog listen to the command or react on instinct and jump in?

The latter in my experience.
The excitement would be too great.

 

[Deleted member 240694]

This was a major issue with todays press conference.
Most people seem to think the Super Intendant was excellent but she couldn’t get the name of the road correct. She repeatedly called it Garstang Lane. It is Garstang Road. This road and the exits onto it are still a big part of their hypothesis. There are 2 exits. It would have even helpful if she specified which exit onto Garstang Road was not covered by CCTV

I didn't get the impression that she was excellent. I thought she was nervous, hesitant & unconvincing. She did not inspire me with any confidence or re-assurance - & I felt the sole purpose of the presser was to sell to the public & the media the accidental drowning theory & the clear, over-riding message to me was : "there's nothing to see here, move on, case closed".

 

[karakuchi]

I have seen the caravan site but actually read nothing or heard nothing about it weirdly

I am sure they have searched the entire area.
The case at point here is that police have CCTV of every entrance and exit to the lanes EXCEPT for the 2 exits that lead to Garstang Road. They have publicly appealed for dashcam footage.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

Garstang road is about a 5 or 6 minute walk from the bench.

Is it up from the bench, through the gate and through the caravan park & allotment lane?