Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[infinit]

Bringing some focus back to this thread:

The one lead the police themselves have appealed for is:
They have CCTV of every entrance and exit apart from lanes that exit to Garstang Road.
This at the moment is the missing link.

Speculating on how quickly someone dies in water at this point is moot.
There is a missing piece of the puzzle.

If anyone wants to find the site on google maps, easiest to search for:
Wyreside Farm Caravan Park.
Here is a link: Wyreside Farm Caravan Park · Allotment Ln, St Michael's on Wyre, Preston PR3 0TZ, United Kingdom

View attachment 399907

I've had enough for today but one thing I was going to look into was how far you could go from that exit before you'd be picked up on CCTV elsewhere. They might not have CCTV specifically covering the exit but might from other sources be able to cover the road routes leading away.

 

[ginnyw]

I didn't get the impression that she was excellent. I thought she was nervous, hesitant & unconvincing. She did not inspire me with any confidence or re-assurance - & I felt the sole purpose of the presser was to sell to the public & the media the accidental drowning theory & the clear, over-riding message to me was : "there's nothing to see here, move on, case closed".

Glad you said that, because I wasn't too impressed with her either. She sounded hesitant and even a bit unsure.

 

[jackal67]

Yes, it doesn't sit right with me either, no sign of a struggle, no evidence of slip marks near the water. And she know the river, walks round it alot, the dog didn't go in the river. And if say the ball did go in, you would wait till after the call to go get it, and you certainly wouldn't just leave your phone there, you would of put it in your pocket, because you wouldn't be expecting to fall in.

do we know that there was no evidence of slip marks though?

 

[kittythehare]

Garstang road is about a 5 or 6 minute walk from the bench.

Can it be narrowed down more? We've only got 10 though she did allude to a very small amount of time on either side of the 10 but I didn't get the impression it was close to 15..

 

[Officer Dibble]

The gilet might 'officially' be knee length, but NB isn't a tall woman - it could be mid-shin on her. I'm now imagining her kneeling down close to the water to attend to the dog/harness/lead. She then tried to stand up, the hem of the gilet trapped under her foot, and it's enough to send her off balance, unable to regain her footing. It would be nothing away from a river bank, but an awkward stumble next to a river is another thing.

There should be signs of slipping/similar, however, but that goes for most attempts at an explanation. Poor, poor Nicola.

Now THIS I can believe the kneeling and trying to get up again and losing balance. The only bit I can't accept is Supt Riley said it was ankle length. (NB is not tall). So with that then your theory works even more. I think the clothing played a part before she fell in the water. (If she wasn't pushed in). JMO MOO

 

[tor96]

The latter in my experience.
The excitement would be too great.

They obviously have the fitbit data, only said on the police conference this afternoon she was wearing one with a light blue strap, this would record where phone is, heart rate etc, so guess they knew from the data in the very limited time spam where her phone was and heart rate

 

[Tanzanite]

When people taking about the depth of the river water at various points, of similar relevance is the riverbed itself. I go wild swimming in a river lake nearby, which is surround by moorland. The bits of the riverbed with stone and rocks are firm to step on and give good purchase, but some areas are horribly silty and slimy - your feet disappear into it. It's technically the 'bottom' but it's impossible to stand on - you just sink and slide around.

 

[Firstsnow4]

I am sure they have searched the entire area.
The case at point here is that police have CCTV of every entrance and exit to the lanes EXCEPT for the 2 exits that lead to Garstang Road. They have publicly appealed for dashcam footage.

Can anyone point out where these exits are on a map? I only ask because there is obviously CCTV on allotment lane as it picked up the lady in the red coat? So how far down is there cctv on allotment lane I wonder? Are they on the path exits and if not, could NB have been put in a car hidden from view. JMO.

 

[karakuchi]

I've had enough for today but one thing I was going to look into was how far you could go from that exit before you'd be picked up on CCTV elsewhere. They might not have CCTV specifically covering the exit but might from other sources be able to cover the road routes leading away.

It's a CCTV black spot, a car may have been parked there and there's no telling who entered or exited.
There are also 2 exits, the press conference didn't say which one.
It's possible she left through these exits.

OR
It's possible someone came in, did something, and left through these routes.

 

[infinit]

When people taking about the depth of the river water at various points, of similar relevance is the riverbed itself. I go wild swimming in a river lake nearby, which is surround by moorland. The bits of the riverbed with stone and rocks are firm to step on and give good purchase, but some areas are horribly silty and slimy - your feet disappear into it. It's technically the 'bottom' but it's impossible to stand on - you just sink and slide around.

I think this is very possible with the weir being not that far away. Dams cause silt to back up and a weir could have the same effect.

 

[JimmyBets]

Is this Garstang lane?

Garstang Rd · Preston, UK

Preston, UK

www.google.com

There is no Garstang LANE, it is Garstang ROAD. It starts in St Michaels and eventually becomes the A586 as you travel North East out of the village.

 

[infinit]

It's a CCTV black spot, a car may have been parked there and there's no telling who entered or exited.
There are also 2 exits, the press conference didn't say which one.
It's possible she left through these exits.

OR
It's possible someone came in, did something, and left through these routes.

Sure, but an exit can only branch out to a finite amount of others and eventually on those you're likely to have some form of camera.

 

[CSMOO]

I'm sure you have but has anyone had a detailed look at her Facebook profile?
You can see multiple pictures of her walking in this area quite often. Different angles of the river also. There is also a photo of Willow in what looks a shallow river bank (different location) so willow was allowed in water? There is also a post she has marked on maps at Wyre with regards to sheep in the water and questioning who they belong to?

 

[LadyEdgeworth]

Thank you for sharing your experience. I'm so glad that someone was there to help you get out

thanks panda, me too

 

[karakuchi]

Can anyone point out where these exits are on a map? I only ask because there is obviously CCTV on allotment lane as it picked up the lady in the red coat? So how far down is there cctv on allotment lane I wonder? Are they on the path exits and if not, could NB have been put in a car hidden from view. JMO.

WIP but I think these may be the exits to the lanes:



Here is her original route:

 

[Firstsnow4]

They obviously have the fitbit data, only said on the police conference this afternoon she was wearing one with a light blue strap, this would record where phone is, heart rate etc, so guess they knew from the data in the very limited time spam where her phone was and heart rate

I’m guessing that it would only sync though if she had the Fitbit set to sync automatically. I don’t have mine set to that to save battery - I have to physically go into the app to sync it. So if her Fitbit and phone had been separated how would it sync via Bluetooth? (Unless she had it set to sync automatically). Fitbit maybe able to extract the data some other way obviously for a police investigation. JMO.

 

[Officer Dibble]

Such a sad story, like you all I've been following it closely as it really is bizarre.

Can I just emphasise as others have, a lot of you are SEVERELY underestimating falling unexpectedly into cold water. It was 2 degrees celsius at night, so the water was probably close to freezing. You fall in that fully clothed, you can't scream, you can't move and you will sink. In addition, this is not a pool, there are weeds, undergrowth and currents to contend with.

I live in London, and people regularly fall into the canals and die all the time (which are actually very shallow, but full of undergrowth & junk) - in fact a young fit man, only 30 years old, fell off his canal boat, simply misplaced his step, 100m from where I live and never came back up - and this is with people seeing it occur!

It took the police and rescue days to find him. Eventually, he was found at the bottom of the weir only 15/20 metres away.
Again, you have no chance when falling into freezing water wearing winter clothing/boots/jackets etc.

To add to this, I've actually experienced this myself supervised in a pool for a life-saving course in New Zealand. I went in wearing jeans, sneakers and a shirt - it's absolutely terrifying, and that was supervised and knowing what was about to happen.

My theory is the call/meeting was coming to an end, it was boring small talk.
She put the phone on speaker, and placed it beside her.
Perhaps she threw a ball or the dog was distracted and about to go into the water.
Knowing she was about to leave, and didn't want a wet dog in the car, she walked over to the dog to attach the harness.
As others have said, she was wearing essentially a sleeping bag.
As she has knelt down to attach the harness she's lost her balance and fallen in.
The shock has set in, and her clothes have weighed her down, pulling her to the bottom.

RIP

Thanks for sharing this. All sounds beyond horrible. JMO

 

[kittythehare]

They obviously have the fitbit data, only said on the police conference this afternoon she was wearing one with a light blue strap, this would record where phone is, heart rate etc, so guess they knew from the data in the very limited time spam where her phone was and heart rate

I got the impression and I could well be wrong because it's an impression that she didn't specify as if more was to be procured..?
Anybody else remember exactly how the Fitbit question was answered?
I don't use them but I think there may be levels?

 

[LadyEdgeworth]

Local to me that.

There was the sad case of Luke Jobson round here as well. Went missing near Yarm school, police divers searched for miles around and he was found very close to where it was known he had entered the water.

So many difficult factors to take into consideration when it comes to searching water with such terrible visibility.

Yes I remember that, such an awful case as he was basically chased into the river and we both know the tees is not THAT big but people seriously underestimate water. Every time I hear cases involving someone possibly going into water and people say ‘surely they would be able to get out/or be found’ I just think if only it was that easy!

 

[Willowy]

You would think so yes. If you were to stumble and could see you were about to fall or anlready in the process of falling into a river you would naturally scream/shout imo.

If nobody was around at that specific time, who would have heard her if she did?