Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[JennieM]

Doubtful in ten mins, abducted someone, without being seen, placed phone etc then got away unseen by witness, then even knowing she had a fit bit on

But someone could possibly render her unconscious in 10 min and throw her in the river

 

[Cranky]

I live by a tidal river and the 8-20 days is more realistic MOO

 

[Willowy]

Such a sad story, like you all I've been following it closely as it really is bizarre.

Can I just emphasise as others have, a lot of you are SEVERELY underestimating falling unexpectedly into cold water. It was 2 degrees celsius at night, so the water was probably close to freezing. You fall in that fully clothed, you can't scream, you can't move and you will sink. In addition, this is not a pool, there are weeds, undergrowth and currents to contend with.

I live in London, and people regularly fall into the canals and die all the time (which are actually very shallow, but full of undergrowth & junk) - in fact a young fit man, only 30 years old, fell off his canal boat, simply misplaced his step, 100m from where I live and never came back up - and this is with people seeing it occur!

It took the police and rescue days to find him. Eventually, he was found at the bottom of the weir only 15/20 metres away.
Again, you have no chance when falling into freezing water wearing winter clothing/boots/jackets etc.

To add to this, I've actually experienced this myself supervised in a pool for a life-saving course in New Zealand. I went in wearing jeans, sneakers and a shirt - it's absolutely terrifying, and that was supervised and knowing what was about to happen.

My theory is the call/meeting was coming to an end, it was boring small talk.
She put the phone on speaker, and placed it beside her.
Perhaps she threw a ball or the dog was distracted and about to go into the water.
Knowing she was about to leave, and didn't want a wet dog in the car, she walked over to the dog to attach the harness.
As others have said, she was wearing essentially a sleeping bag.
As she has knelt down to attach the harness she's lost her balance and fallen in.
The shock has set in, and her clothes have weighed her down, pulling her to the bottom.

RIP

Totally this. Can't emphasise this enough, from personal experience too.

 

[karakuchi]

So is “garstang lane” from the press conference really the rowanwater->garstang road route?

It's confusing unless you understand the UK countryside.
The lanes are not marked on the map, they are walking routes.

Garstang Road, is a road, as you can see in my map.
The Garstang Exits are the two walking lanes that exit to Garstang Road.

 

[kittythehare]

She had a light blue fitbit, obviously it would have collected data, heart rate etc

was in syncd to anything though?
Where did it store the data?
It doesn't matter what colour it is if it didn't sync to a findable device or app/

 

[CuriousObserver1]

Why assume an abduction ? Or hiding anything ? Think how quickly someone could simply strike her over the head and just push her into the water (seconds), with them entering and leaving by the road which has no CCTV. It would take someone a total of a few minutes. The area could simply not be busy enough for there to be witnesses.

Actually that theory did cross my mind earlier too, ie random murder, but then likely the dog would have barked & been heard, plus a possible assailant witnessed in the area at some point before / after, and would - still possible I know

 

[themagiceye]

But someone could possibly render her unconscious in 10 min and throw her in the river

Someone could render her unconscious in 10 seconds.

 

[JimmyBets]

2 more things out of todays press conference:
- a LAND search of 1km radius has been conducted. That sounds like they have not searched the lake in the grounds of Rowanwater (very close to where NB was last actually seen.)

- NB’s phone and Willow were found at 09:35 by a fellow dog walker. Someone contacted school at 10:50.
What on earth did they do for 75 mins? Was this one person or several? Did they seriously no try to contact anyone else for 75 mins then call the school which was only a few minutes walk away?
Did Willow not have contact details on her collar/harness? Did these people go down to the river and look for a signs of NB?
75 minutes is a long time to stand around looking at a loose dog and a mobile phone (which was still connected to a call)

So many missed opportunities to question LE today.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

But someone could possibly render her unconscious in 10 min and throw her in the river

And last seen 9:10 & dog found 9:35 so that’s 25 min. The bench at 9:20 was the phone being at the bench, not sure it means Nicola was with the phone.

 

[Kassanddra]

The press mention of a tennis ball.. police didn’t say she had a ball with her did they.

Tennis ball
Would definitely float down the river.

 

[JimmyBets]

So potentially where she was last seen in the upper field is close to the Rowanwater lodges (red circle on map). If she had been abducted in the top right hand corner of that field, could she have been put in a car (concealed) and then taken up that road to the exit at Garstang road? Can you even get through to Rowanwater from the upper field? JMO.

Rowanwater

maps.apple.com

Been trying to say this for 2 days

 

[PandaMarch]

The phone was on the bench but I’m not convinced that means Nicola was with the phone

no the police have said the phone only, they don't know where NB was at this point

 

[JennieM]

Someone could render her unconscious in 10 seconds.

Exactly. So just because she has not being seen leaving the area, it doesn't exclude the possibility of an attack and the attacker getting rid of her in the river.

 

[sirensynapse]

Just my two cents worth: I once jumped into a pool of glacial runoff water (a ways downstream of the mountain) in autumn, in my shorts, and the cold hit me so hard and fast I was almost immediately terrified that I would not be able to get back to the shore of the small pool, just 2-3 meters away. I was just losing mobility that fast. Add a bunch of heavy clothes, a gulp of water, the shock of the cold knocking the air out of you, and I could easily see how you could be finished in a jiffy.

 

[Candleburner12]

I haven’t much to add to this , frankly , disturbing case . Altho I do not doubt that the dog would’ve followed her a- into the river should she have fallen in , b- to wherever she went . Not too long ago I was walking in my local woods and I slipped on a mossy tree stump and slid down (a long way ) into what can only be described as a ravine . My dog (Labrador ) was straight beside me and made the biggest racket I’ve ever heard until someone came to help … luckily two strong hikers . My dog didn’t see me fall but he found me straight away. I’m aware that the dog MAY of tried it’s best to follow her and was quite simply unable to but I can’t get my head around anything with this case , apart from it is utterly shocking whatever has happened .

 

[karakuchi]

So potentially where she was last seen in the upper field is close to the Rowanwater lodges (red circle on map). If she had been abducted in the top right hand corner of that field, could she have been put in a car (concealed) and then taken up that road to the exit at Garstang road? Can you even get through to Rowanwater from the upper field? JMO.

Rowanwater

maps.apple.com

Can you even get through to Rowanwater from the upper field?
Yes absolutely, I will make a map with the walking routes.

 

[Sandyuk]

You're absolutely right about cold water shock, I'm sorry I might have expressed myself badly. I'm not doubting that cold water shock is a thing, however as we seem to be in agreement fortunately not everyone who falls into water in the winter dies instantly. What I'm trying to say is that whilst the drowning hypothesis seems absolutely possible, and maybe probable given what we know, it doesn't strike me as 100% certain and obvious that that must be the answer.

A few years ago in November a friend of mines 17yr old daughter was in a car with two other friends that swerved on an icy road and went into a canal. The girl didn’t survive but the boys did. One of the boys tried desperately to undo her seatbelt but couldn’t. My point is that despite the freezing water the boys were still capable of doing things to get out of the car and out of the water.

 

[Taskforce88]

So potentially where she was last seen in the upper field is close to the Rowanwater lodges (red circle on map). If she had been abducted in the top right hand corner of that field, could she have been put in a car (concealed) and then taken up that road to the exit at Garstang road? Can you even get through to Rowanwater from the upper field? JMO.

Rowanwater

maps.apple.com

Supposedly last seen near Rowanwater. So if she was abducted who put the items at the bench and why was the dog near them?

 

[Cluella DeVille]

Im holding on to that 10 mins. Could something have happened in that 10 mins possibly that took her away from the scene via an area not with CCTV or hidden in a car maybe?? IMO.

IMO nothing can be ruled out until either she or verifiable evidence is found

 

[Firstsnow4]

And last seen 9:10 & dog found 9:35 so that’s 25 min. The bench at 9:20 was the phone being at the bench, not sure it means Nicola was with the phone.

Yes I think the phone was at the bench (somehow tracked digitally by gps) but as you say NB was not necessarily there. IMO.