Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

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Anyone correct me if I am wrong.
Did I hear in the presser the river is 15 KM long?
Did they say they had searched 15 KM?
Don't think they did?
Just looking for clarification.
It was the 15km between the bench & the sea. From the press conference:

'We've also had search dogs that are specially trained, in the area, from both the boat and the river bank, and this is included the area where Nicola went missing, but also upstream of where she went missing and the 15 km or so down to the sea.'
 
Based on all the work we have done so far, we are now as confident as we can be that Nicola has not left the field where she was last seen and our working hypothesis is that she has fallen into the river for some reason. There is no evidence whatsoever that there is anything suspicious about her disappearance or any third-party involvement in her going missing. Our investigation remains open and we will of course act on any new information which comes to light.

The picture at the bottom says she arrived at the bench/gate at 8:45, then was seen at 9:10 approx further along. So in my thinking she has then turned back and started walking back along to the bench/gate?
 
If you watch the video that PandaMarch posted for me you get to the squeaky gate at the bench then the video stops. It’s all grass and some trees when you come in off main road to path up to the gate and bench. So the park must be along from the bench so I thought at first the dog was trapped in between gates and couldn’t go anywhere but I don’t think that is the case! I think MOO, she was able to go in opposite direction of the bench and gate but didn’t, WHY?
I think the videos have been deleted. I am not sure why as they were sourced.
 
From the same source (Press conference video) I think it's important to include the previous sentence which makes it clear this is the 'main working hypothesis' (my bold) rather than the only explanation they're considering.

'Our main working hypothesis, therefore, is that Nicola has sadly fallen into the river. That there is no third party or criminal involvement and that this is not suspicious, but a tragic case of a missing person.'
Replying to myself with an extra thought... The press conference section about NB's clothing suggests they're not ruling out other options. The wording implies items of clothing might be found in the general area, or in the river on their own (ie not being worn by NB). So again this leaves options other than 'fallen in & drowned' open:

'I do have an update on the clothing that Nicola was last seen wearing and this is something that the public, who live in the area or who walk their dogs on the river path near to St. Michael's or downstream of St. Michael's towards Morecambe Bay, can look out for. They are:
[details snipped]

It's really important that the public pay heed to those very specific clothing descriptions, please, because factual sightings of those items would be very useful to us.'
(BBM) (edited to clarify wording)
 
Oh and another random thought I had re: mixed reports about the conditions on the river that day. If it had been noticeably different in any way, I think that makes it less likely that she would remove the harness. As a dog owner I know I check that out before letting mine loose near water.

That said, if she fell in and did have that long quilted coat zipped up, the combined effects of cold, shock and heavy/restrictive clothing might have made the river conditions less relevant anyway.
Where is she right now is the only question I have.
I wonder whether they will extend the search to a 2 km zone and how much further is possible?
Sounds like they have enough manpower on the ground to maintain watch over everything that needs monitoring .
I'm not sure what limits , if any are in the UK?
 
The picture at the bottom says she arrived at the bench/gate at 8:45, then was seen at 9:10 approx further along. So in my thinking she has then turned back and started walking back along to the bench/gate?

I think so, and that would match with some of the routes recorded on Strava. On at least one record she walks past the track at the bottom of the Rowanwater park and also wanders close to the boundary of the caravan park directly to the north of the bench.
 
Where is she right now is the only question I have.
I wonder whether they will extend the search to a 2 km zone and how much further is possible?
Sounds like they have enough manpower on the ground to maintain watch over everything that needs monitoring .
I'm not sure what limits , if any are in the UK?

I don’t know but a good case to look at for similarities might be Libby Squires. From quite early on they thought she was in the water and I think the searches were quite extensive. They didn’t find her through search efforts though - her body appeared in the Humber Estuary a few months later.
 
Replying to myself with an extra thought... The press conference section about NB's clothing suggests they're not ruling out other options. The wording implies items of clothing might be found in the general area, or in the river on their own (ie not being worn by NB). So again this leaves options other than 'fallen in & drowned' open:

'I do have an update on the clothing that Nicola was last seen wearing and this is something that the public, who live in the area or who walk their dogs on the river path near to St. Michael's or downstream of St. Michael's towards Morecambe Bay, can look out for. They are:
[details snipped]

It's really important that the public pay heed to those very specific clothing descriptions, please, because factual sightings of those items would be very useful to us.'
(BBM) (edited to clarify wording)
I think that if the river throws them up at a certain point it will provide key information on where everything else will be.
They will be able to estimate tides and source.

If they are found in second hand shops it's a whole other ballgame.

If they are found in a pile stashed somewhere it will point in a different direction.

If they are found dry with no evidence of river water on analysis it will suggest she never entered the river or at least not fully dressed.

If they are found anywhere in any condition they may provide a sound DNA sample for analysis.
 
A few things bother me with this case.

The <modsnip - Superintendent> totally avoided a press question of how deep the water was at the bench area. At no point was an answer given instead talked about how many resources were used in a search and mentioned 15km of water course searched. <modsnip - not LE friendly>

Phone triangulation is not an exact science when used by the police unless they have access to a family members phone utilising locate my phone or similar so therefore cant categorically say that the phone didnt move. They ping the nearest mast.

Where is the evidence to say NB entered the water? If the water, like most rivers isnt deep at the river bank (river not a canal therefore not uniform depth at bank) why wouldnt NB stand up.

Clothing when water logged would have to be so sufficient to weight down NB plus current strength stopping NB orientating to her feet. The footage of the river doesnt equate to this.

The location is a remote area how would police find scenes of a struggle if abduction or gunpoint techniques utilised, they wouldnt u less a direct witness available.

The dog was dry. A family spaniel would likely go in if their owner went into the water in distress. Especially as a familiar location to the animal.

<modsnip - not victim friendly>

Hope NB is found safe and well but its concering to make a statement so early on (1 week) into the investigation by the police to state misadventure.
 
<modsnip - quoted post removed>

The police follow stringent guidelines on missing person reports.
It saddens me that the press conference referred more to the resources utilised than the evidence.

If NB was classified high risk (low medium high utilised in UK) then the resources that were all mentioned in press conference are actually standard operating procedure - which is a good thing, throw the kitchen sink at every high risk misper until they are found.

Timeframe then inevitably becomes an impact factor at which point escalation results normally in media release escalation.

Misadventure drowning normally provides sufficient evidence early on to suggest that outcome. I personally dont see that here thus far with what has been released publically.

I cant help but feel that there is too much hope on the public to provide a "case breaker" piece of evidence as it appears the police just dont have an answer but unfortunately need to provide one at this stage to family and the public.
 
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The police follow stringent guidelines on missing person reports.
It saddens me that the press conference referred more to the resources utilised than the evidence.

If NB was classified high risk (low medium high utilised in UK) then the resources that were all mentioned in press conference are actually standard operating procedure - which is a good thing, throw the kitchen sink at every high risk misper until they are found.

Timeframe then inevitably becomes an impact factor at which point escalation results normally in media release escalation.

Misadventure drowning normally provides sufficient evidence early on to suggest that outcome. I personally dont see that here thus far with what has been released publically.

I cant help but feel that there is too much hope on the public to provide a "case breaker" piece of evidence as it appears the police just dont have an answer but unfortunately need to provide one at this stage to family and the public.
What evidence do you think they missed out in the press conference?
 
What evidence do you think they missed out in the press conference?
If you watch the conference fully (unedited by news channels) you will see questions asked by journalists that just arent answered. Its the british media training technique of "lets go round the houses" so you wont actually get an answer to your question
 
PRESS CONFERENCE

3RD. FEBRUARY

Superintendent
- Good afternoon, and thank you for coming. I'm Superintendent Sally Riley, I'm the Operations Manager for Lancaster, Morecambe and Wyre. It's been a week now since Nicola Bulley from Inskip, in the local area, went missing. Her family, particularly her partner, her children, her parents and her sister are in real agony while she remains missing. And I want to pay particular tribute for their patience and dignity and strength at this time.

In the last 7 days since Nicola went missing, a week ago today, the police have done a number of enquiries to try and find Nicola and to bring her home to her family. In particular, the search is focused on the riverbank and the River Wyre, here in St. Michael's. An unprecedented number of search resources have been searching the river and the bank. This includes drone, the helicopter, police divers, sonar equipment, pole cameras, underwater drone and staff wading the shallower parts of the river. We've also had search dogs that are specially trained, in the area, from both the boat and the river bank, and this is included the area where Nicola went missing, but also upstream of where she went missing and the 15 km or so down to the sea. We've been assisted in this by the Coast Guard, by RNLI, by colleagues from other forces and the Lancaster area search and rescue and I want to thank them for their assistance.

Unfortunately, we have not still found Nicola but our search does continue. As well as the river search, we've also undertaken a 1 km physical search of the open ground in a radius from the point where she last went missing. This has included open ground, empty buildings and their gardens, to no avail so far. As well as search officers, we've had a number of uniformed staff in the area, officers and PCSO's receiving community intelligence and offering that visible presence to the local community to answer any questions and to allay any concerns. At the same time, a dedicated team of investigators, who often assist missing people enquiries, has been working on this, tirelessly. They have undertaken extensive house to house enquiries. They've checked numerous CCTV, dashcam and ring doorbell footage. They've traced and now spoken to a number of key witnesses. They have spoken to people in the community who have information about Nicola's lifestyle, her daily walks, and so on. All this has built up a really rich picture of data that's allowed us to have a very tight timeline, some details of which we've already released about Nicola's last whereabouts and what she was doing last Friday morning. I'm just going to take you through some of those.

  • 8:43 a.m. - Nicola was seen on the river path, walking towards the iron bridge.
  • 8:47 a.m. - She was seen in the lower field with her dog, Willow, and her mobile phone, which was on view.
  • 8:53 a.m. - She sent an e-mail to her boss on her phone.
  • 9:01 a.m. - She joined a team's work call. All of this was normal behaviour for Nicola. This was not out of the ordinary and nothing different or unusual happened during those calls and e-mails.
  • 9:10 a.m. - She was seen in the upper field. The dog was off the lead, again, this was normal. The dog was not in it's harness and the lead wasn't on the dog, which was all part of Nicola's daily routine.
  • 9:20 a.m. - Through enquiries we've made, we believe that her phone was on the bench.
  • 9:30 a.m. - The team's meeting ended, but Nicola's phone remained dialled in.
  • 9:33 a.m. - A witness found Nicola's dog, Willow, running between the gate to the field and the bench where the phone was located. Also found by that witness was the dog harness which was on the grass between the bench and the rivers edge.

Therefore, the time that we are particularly interested in is between 9:10 - the last confirmed sighting and at 9:20, when Nicola's phone was found on the bench... sorry, not found on the bench, Nicola's phone was on the bench believed to be on the bench found at around 9:33. The witness made numerous enquiries to try and find the owner of the phone, not knowing whose phone it was and, indeed, whose dog it was. That lead the witness to meet up with other people, who did recognise the dog as Nicola's and the school to which Nicola's children go was alerted at 10:50, as was her family. This means that we have only a 10 minute window in which we cannot account for Nicola's movements. The enquiry team has undertaken a number, as I said, of dashcam, CCTV and ring doorbell footages. This has allowed us to eliminate any trace, so far, of Nicola having left the riverside, which is really important. So we believe that Nicola was in the riverside area and remained in the riverside area. We remain open to any enquiries that might lead us to question that, but at this time, we understand that she was by the river.

Our main working hypothesis, therefore, is that Nicola has sadly fallen into the river. That there is no third party or criminal involvement and that this is not suspicious, but a tragic case of a missing person. This is particularly important because speculation, otherwise, can be really distressing for the family, and for Nicola's children.

In terms of what we would like from the public - I would like to thank them, particularly Nicola's friends, neighbours and the community of St. Michael's and the wider area who've come out in force to help in the search for Nicola.

I do have an update on the clothing that Nicola was last seen wearing and this is something that the public, who live in the area or who walk their dogs on the river path near to St. Michael's or downstream of St. Michael's towards Morecambe Bay, can look out for. They are:

  • An ankle length black quilted gilet jacket.
  • A black Engelbert Strauss waist length coat, which was worn underneath the gilet.
  • Tight fitting black jeans.
  • Long green walking socks tucked into her jeans.
  • Ankle length green Next wellies.
  • Necklace.
  • Pale blue Fitbit.

It's really important that the public pay heed to those very specific clothing descriptions, please, because factual sightings of those items would be very useful to us.

We also appeal for any remaining dashcam footage that may not yet have been submitted to the police, in this enquiry. Particularly, if people have that relating to the Garstang Lane area of St. Michael's. Please can the public continue to report only factual information that they have and not speculation as to what may have happened to Nicola, because this is a distraction to the police enquiry and not helpful for the family. I would also appeal to the public to keep themselves safe in this enquiry. People going out at night in the darkness could fall into the river and face other hazards. Likewise, if they go out in boats on the river please only do so if you've got experience in doing that. We don't want people to be in danger.

Lastly, I'd like to underline the support given to the family. It is, as I've said, an agonising time for them. Nicola has two little girls, a partner, sister and parents, as well as many many friends and neighbours and well wishers in the local community. We are supporting her family with specially trained officers and staff and I'd like to thank the wider community for all the support that they've given during this very difficult enquiry. Thank you. I'm happy to take questions if there are any.

Reporter - Is there any data from the fit bit? With newer fit bit's you can track the location by using the phone.

Superintendent - Yeah. All the telephony and digital enquires are being handled by the enquiry team, so all of that data will be looked at.

Reporter - I know earlier in the week you were searching the river for signs that she'd fallen in. Did you find anything? Is there anything to support that hypothesis?

Superintendent - No, not so far, unfortunately not. That's why I particular appeal around any clothing that maybe matching the description I've given, that could be found, but nothing has been found in the river. I should say that the river is tidal below the Weir, so if you see repeated searches of particular areas of the river, it's not necessarily because we found something of note, it's because the river movement is complex and we are taking advice from academic specialists in water movement around currents and so on.

Reporter - Had she made any contribution on the team's call? Had she spoken or was it just on mute?

Superintendent - Not that I understand, no and, again, this was normal. It was a large team's called. She was one of many people on the call and I wouldn't have expected her to necessarily participate, actively.

Reporter - How was the phone known to be on the bench at 9:20 exactly?

Superintendent - Through telephony enquiries that we've done, relative to the phone itself, rather than through a witness.

Reporter - So it wasn't (inaudible)?

Superintendent - No.

Reporter - Today we can see lots of Nicola's family has been out in force. Has anybody found any information out by holding up pictures of Nicola?

Superintendent - Not that I'm aware of, today. Clearly, the public are very well-intentioned and have given us a lot of information. Quite rightly, they don't know whether it is of particularly use or not and obviously we can judge that, can't we? but, so far, it's taken a lot of effort and diligence to go through all the information that's been provided and we'll continue to do that, right through the weekend and into next week.

Reporter - Earlier today, one of Nicola's friends said that (inaudible) to hope because of the amount of calls the police have had. Can you tell us a bit about how many calls or pieces of information you have from members of the public? Have you got any idea about the number of... ?

Superintendent - I can't give you a number, but I know that there have been a lot of calls today. Clearly, 7 days on is a really good time for people to think back, particularly if they have perhaps a particular work pattern where maybe they might be working on a Friday or not working on a Friday. It's, again, Friday today and that will probably take them back to what they were doing last Friday. Were they driving through St. Michael's at around 9:15? Were they dropping children off? Were they going off to work? What were they doing last Friday that they might always do? That would be helpful for us to know if it's relevant to the enquiry.

Reporter - Can you just explain to me why you're so sure she didn't leave the riverside? Are there no kind of cross county routes? No other route, at all, that could have been taken?

Superintendent - Yes, several of the exits from the riverside area are either locked, or they're covered by CCTV. So we've been able to look at that CCTV and negate Nicola leaving the local area. The areas that are not covered by CCTV is where we've been particularly interested in dashcam footage. So that's Garstang Lane leading to the A586. If we can definitively cover off that 10 minute window, in particular, and a few minutes either side, then we will know definitively that she has not left the area because of the lack of footage or footage showing that she didn't pass by, but we are as sure as we can be that Nicola did not leave the area.

Reporter - So there's nowhere that there were cars parked so she could have been in a car, for example, (inaudible) dashcam?

Superintendent - No, no, no. All the exits to the area that she was, as I say, are either locked, covered by CCTV or Garstang Lane - we're appealing for dashcam footage to cover that gap.

Reporter - Having seen the river it doesn't like like the kind you can fall in by accident does it?

Superintendent - At the point where the bench is located there is quite a steep drop, albeit, not high, it is steep and therefore, whilst I don't want to speculate as to what may have happened, it is our working hypothesis that she's entered the water accidentally and that's why there is no further physical evidence on the field.

Reporter - Can she swim?

Superintendent - She can swim, yes.

Reporter - How deep is it?

Superintendent - It's different depths actually, which is why we've had some staff wading the river and some staff underwater search. But, as they say, the sheer number, actually, an unprecedented amount of technical equipment with the sonars, the pole cameras, the dogs, the surface searches, the underwater search. It is really so very thorough that we have discounted finding anything in that immediate area, underwater.

Reporter - Are there any other factors with Nicola that may have contributed to the situation? Was she ill or was she taking any medication for any underlying medical conditions?

Superintendent - We're not considering... we've clearly considered the whole picture, but that is not relevant at this time, no, not at all.

Reporter - So just to check, the tiny window between 9:10 when she was last seen and 9:20 when the phone (inaudible) on the bench?

Superintendent - Correct. So Nicola was last seen by a witness at 9:10 and the phone was back on the bench at 9:20 or thereabouts yes.

Reporter - (inaudible)

Superintendent - Yeah. All of the timeline details, what the police have been doing everyday, what we're intending to do over the next few days is all relayed to the family so that they're kept updated and are aware.

Reporter - Why would you imagine that she didn't have her phone in her hand or in her pocket when she fell?

Superintendent - The dog was off the lead, this was normal for the dog to runabout and Nicola was on a team's call, which again, it would be normal for her not to necessarily participate in actively and just to have the phone to listen in, effectively.

Reporter - But you normally have it in your hand...

Superintendent - You do, you do, but anything could have happened with the dog, whereby Nicola may have gone, and I don't wish to speculate in that we don't know, but it is possible as the dog was loose and off the lead that there may have been an issue with the dog that led her to go near to the waters edge, she puts the phone down to go and deal with the dog momentarily and Nicola may have fallen in. So that is a possibility.

Reporter - The dog was dry?

Superintendent - The dog was dry, yes.

Reporter - The dog was off it's harness?

Superintendent - Yes.

Reporter - Which is normal?

Superintendent - Yes.

Reporter - Was there any chance the dog itself had come in the river or (inaudible) working theories?

Superintendent - We don't believe the dog was in the river because the dog, we believe, was dry and the witnesses who were part of the timeline, that I've laid out, have not described the dog, for example, swimming in the river or jumping into the river. So we assume the dog didn't get into the river, but we don't know why Nicola may have entered the water, if she did.

Reporter - How long will the missing person enquiry be, the scale it is in terms of search operations?

Superintendent - Well, clearly a 15 km stretch of river is long and, therefore, our partners continue to assist us in that, so there are lots of things that we'll be doing over the weekend in terms of water surface and riverbank searching and our partners will be working with us into next week, but it's too early to say at this stage how long it will be.

Reporter - How confident are you that you can find Nicola?

Superintendent - This is a large rural area with a long stretch of river. All I can say is that we are doing absolutely everything possible. We are working tirelessly long hours with a very large team of both plainclothes and specialist uniformed officers to try and do everything we can to bring Nicola home to her family, but it is a very complex and challenging situation and we hope for a good outcome.

Reporter - The possibilities, as the way you said it, seem like limited, small?

Superintendent - Well, as each day goes on we become very much more concerned for Nicola's safety, but we have the best minds and the best trained officers available to us, as well as a number of very specialist partners, so every potential possible way of improving our chances of finding Nicola are being exploited.
Thank you.
Superintendent: "Our main working hypothesis, therefore, is that Nicola has sadly fallen into the river."

-So what are the other "working hypotheses", or did she not say? Have I missed something folks?
 
Superintendent: "Our main working hypothesis, therefore, is that Nicola has sadly fallen into the river."

-So what are the other "working hypotheses", or did she not say? Have I missed something folks?
I think their other working hypotheses is that some evidence may (or may not) appear that will lead them down a different path.
 
I think their other working hypotheses is that some evidence may (or may not) appear that will lead them down a different path.
I don't actually know. I am tired. I am sure they are doing the best they can. It's just that by sounding so certain of one possibility when there is such clear lack of evidence, they've alarmed people that perhaps they are not contemplating all options as much as they should.
 
Superintendent: "Our main working hypothesis, therefore, is that Nicola has sadly fallen into the river."

-So what are the other "working hypotheses", or did she not say? Have I missed something folks?
Working hypothesis is police jargon for its fluid and can change at any moment we get evidence to suggest otherwise. There is no evidence to suggest entry into the water at this stage either.

Lets just hope regardless shes found safe and well.
 
I don’t know but a good case to look at for similarities might be Libby Squires. From quite early on they thought she was in the water and I think the searches were quite extensive. They didn’t find her through search efforts though - her body appeared in the Humber Estuary a few months later.
What are the similarities with the sad case of Libby Squires ? given that NB is presently a missing person?
 
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