Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[Edinlass]

Has anyone seen LBC post on Tik Tok? IMO, by the bench it looks quite easy to accidentally slip and fall from the angle of recording?

Confirmed it is allowed here so I have re-posted it as quite honestly if it was muddy, a medical emergency, a trip, bang to head I can totally see someone falling in.

 

[Loobyloo]

Yes, It's both fair & accurate. LE have closed their minds to the “potential possibility” of 3rd party, criminal or suspicious involvement. LE have stated & are on record as saying “That there is no third party or criminal involvement and that this is not suspicious, but a tragic case of a missing person.”
Supt. Riley, Press Conference, 3 Feb 2023. (BBM)

From the same source (Press conference video) I think it's important to include the previous sentence which makes it clear this is the 'main working hypothesis' (my bold) rather than the only explanation they're considering.

'Our main working hypothesis, therefore, is that Nicola has sadly fallen into the river. That there is no third party or criminal involvement and that this is not suspicious, but a tragic case of a missing person.'

 

[Taskforce88]

I asked the same questions about the dog witnesses. Didn’t the first witness have something to do with the caravan park?? And didn’t she want to remain anonymous? Seems odd that it not included in the timeline now.

It's a crucial bit of information. She was the first on the scene.

 

[Tortoise]

Has anyone quoted this piece yet?

"As the investigation extends into an eighth day, a source from St Michael's Angling Association said the stretch of river where Ms Bulley vanished is notorious and 'very dangerous', with a depth of about 15ft.

'The combination of the depth and how cold it is at this time of year makes it very dangerous,' he told The Times.

'I certainly would not want to fall in there and I'm a very strong swimmer.' Specialist police divers have been painstakingly searching the riverbed for clues. "

Nicola Bulley's family find police river theory 'hard to contemplate'

 

[Taskforce88]

Has anyone quoted this piece yet?

"As the investigation extends into an eighth day, a source from St Michael's Angling Association said the stretch of river where Ms Bulley vanished is notorious and 'very dangerous', with a depth of about 15ft.

'The combination of the depth and how cold it is at this time of year makes it very dangerous,' he told The Times.

'I certainly would not want to fall in there and I'm a very strong swimmer.' Specialist police divers have been painstakingly searching the riverbed for clues. "

Nicola Bulley's family find police river theory 'hard to contemplate'

We have had conflicting information about the depth and flow of the river on the day of NB's dissapearance.

 

[tulip182]

That Lancs Live article doesn’t make a great deal of sense. “Also found her mobile phone on a bench. It was found under a tree…”
So which was it? On the bench or under the tree?
Did she find it on the bench or pick it up from under the tree and put it on the bench? If it was under the tree it would suggest something other than NB calmly placing the phone on the bench and going to deal with the dog as has been suggested. You wouldn’t leave your phone under a tree in the mud.

 

[Lilbitcurious]

My assumption is this:

Nicola sets off on the walk with the dog and once she got to the gate she would take the dogs harness and lead off. Now she is hands free from the dog she can send her email and start the zoom call, she is spotted by somebody that knows her and her dog and they confirm her phone being on show. She is later spotted in the higher field with her dog off lead. The time from 9.10am ( last sighting in top field) to 9.20am (phone tech confirmed at the bench area) is accurate for the 10 mins it would take to get back to the bench area.
Now Nicola has to get the dog back on the lead and the bench is a good area if you are still pre occupied with a zoom call, hence putting the phone on the bench while she sorts the dog out with harness etc, because she can still hear the phone whilst tending to the dog. However i believe she has some accident at the slope near the bench and ends up in the water, probably due to gettng the harness on and wet/slippy steep slope or due to a medical condition possible heart attack? This is why she never ends the zoomcall.

People are assuming the dog will just bindly jump into the water, but im not so sure about this assumption. Dogs can be very scared and if its a steep slope it could put the dog in doubt as to what to do. I think the dog just stays very close to that area because it is in a panicked state. My only problem with my take on events is that i find it highly unlikely that the weight of her body in wet clothing has been able to pass the weir, then pass all of the island areas, pass over all silt and not get caught up anywhere to be found before getting to sea. But then i am assuming that the search underwater is flawless.

Was it not posted earlier that all dogs must be kept on a lead there’s a sign? And I wonder with it being a big sprawling place would it be a flexi (retractable) to give the dog freedom to roam but still on a lead? That’s what I do. But it’s quite hard to tie them up(not impossible, but tricky) compared to short leash MOO

 

[Tortoise]

We have had conflicting information about the depth and flow of the river on the day of NB's dissapearance.

This seems to be someone with knowledge, as opposed to an anonymous source, or speculation.

I believe it's the Angling Association which is responsible for the sign on the tree. JMO

 

[Lilbitcurious]

No more gates on the path. There is a fence at the far end next to the lodges.

So it would have been possible for Willow to go towards the lodges?

 

[Taskforce88]

Was it not posted earlier that all dogs must be kept on a lead there’s a sign? And I wonder with it being a big sprawling place would it be a flexi (retractable) to give the dog freedom to roam but still on a lead? That’s what I do. But it’s quite hard to tie them up(not impossible, but tricky) compared to short leash MOO

The photos of the dog show it off the lead any time NB was on that walk.

 

[MsMiniSleuth]

Her family seem doubtful about her ending up in the water.

Nicola Bulley's family find police river theory 'hard to contemplate'

Police expressed concerns that the missing mother-of-two may have fallen in the icy cold water on River Wyre while trying to retrieve her dog Willow's tennis ball.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[phatavocado]

We have had conflicting information about the depth and flow of the river on the day of NB's dissapearance.

The information found here River Wyre at St Michaels: River level and flood alerts from the monitoring station shows the depth to be about 0.46cm, just slighlty down from the bench

 

[Taskforce88]

So it would have been possible for Willow to go towards the lodges?

It's possible. The path continues past them along the riverside.

 

[abcd123]

It's a crucial bit of information. She was the first on the scene.

so crucial.

The main problem with any of the non drowning theories is the very small window for somebody to deal with NB and then possibly plant the phone and harness before this witness found them both.

<modsnip>

 

[Lilbitcurious]

The photos of the dog show it off the lead any time NB was on that walk.

Aw do they ok thanks

 

[Casseus]

We have had conflicting information about the depth and flow of the river on the day of NB's dissapearance.

Yes this, I struggle with the 15ft as they focused right in front of the bench where the dog and her belongings were and the SAR we clearly WADING in waist deep water quite calmly.

 

[Loobyloo]

That Lancs Live article doesn’t make a great deal of sense. “Also found her mobile phone on a bench. It was found under a tree…”
So which was it? On the bench or under the tree?
Did she find it on the bench or pick it up from under the tree and put it on the bench? If it was under the tree it would suggest something other than NB calmly placing the phone on the bench and going to deal with the dog as has been suggested. You wouldn’t leave your phone under a tree in the mud.

The bench is under the tree with the notices on.


Image source

 

[Lilbitcurious]

It's possible. The path continues past them along the riverside.

But, to me anyway, Willow wanted through that gate! Why?

 

[Edinlass]

As if this case isn’t difficult enough we can’t even get a straight answer - is it deep at parts, strong undercurrents, depth. It’s such a shame tbh. I don’t know how we aren’t all in the nut house the amount of conflicting info and I don’t know why I do it to myself time and time again. I haven’t been on WS for a good year, after this I think I may need a bit longer.

 

[PandaMarch]

Yes, It's both fair & accurate. LE have closed their minds to the “potential possibility” of 3rd party, criminal or suspicious involvement. LE have stated & are on record as saying “That there is no third party or criminal involvement and that this is not suspicious, but a tragic case of a missing person.”
Supt. Riley, Press Conference, 3 Feb 2023. (BBM)

pretty sure they've said this is what they believe, and their main hypothesis, as opposed to 'this is what happened'