Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[Danny Dnipro]

Are these all the possible scenarios?

Can we eliminate any?

River
- Accident - she tripped
- Medical emergency - she fell
<modsnip - topic is off limits>
- Somebody threw her in

Abduction
- She is still in the area - alive or not
- She has left the area - alive or not

Attack and murder
- She has been hidden in the vicinity
- She has been removed from the area

Has left the area
- By someone
<modsnip - topic is off limits>
- With someone's help

Ending up in the river can include many other possibilities regardless of how improbable. I composed a list earlier that included falling branches and meteorites. The actual reason of entry into the water won't be established all the time that NB is missing, and may never be established. I'd group them in 3 categories

1 Physical. This would be trip/slip/fall
2 Medical Episode. This list is extensive
3 External. Willow jumped up at her/someone pushed her. Etc etc.

Applying Occams Razor, I'd go with an option from number 2 because it means that you don't have to assume an extra step of being incapacitated when entering the water. Which would limit an attempt for a scream for help or even managing to escape the water yourself.

 

[Firstsnow4]

I’m not sure they have captured NB on any CCTV or ring doorbells or dashcam it’s all witness statements. They have only determined that through CCTV etc they haven’t seen her leave. IMO

So they haven’t seen her arrive on CCTV either? Saying that if it’s the entrance by the bridge at Garstang road perhaps that’s where the blackspot is imo. I just find it odd that they are saying they have CCTV on every exit/entrance yet they haven’t captured her on it entering either?! IMO.

 

[Cicane]

I think the only reason willow wouldn’t have jumped in is if she didn’t actually see it happened and thought she’d been left. The gate is where they would leave from so Willow hung around there getting more and more agitated.

Does anyone have a Birds Eye view of the area the police said CCTV didn’t cover? Was it the main secluded path she walked along to get into the field? Is there vehicle access?

 

[Tanzanite]

The thing is, <modsnip> - It looks like the Police have done a thorough job. No doubt in the background they will have checked things like her bank accounts, her phone data and other records they have access to. They'll have spoken to those close to her to try to understand her life, they'll have spoken to her work to understand what occurred that morning, they've checked the CCTV in the area, they've appealed for witnesses they've not been able to trace from that CCTV and spoken to them. They've appealed for dashcam footage of the exits they can't eliminate via CCTV.

A lack of evidence can be evidence to a degree and the more entrances/exits they have covered and the more witnesses who didn't see anyone else or anything unusual along with tightening the timeline of when anything could possibly have occurred makes it really remote. As she said at the press conference, it's a hypothesis based on the evidence they have.

I don't disagree with any of this. My only thought to add is the same one I had on the Friday NB went missing - I think the conclusion is right, but the police announced that they were not looking for a 3rd party before much of this ^ happened.

I'm still slightly baffled by the immediacy of the investigative positioning, and prior to the evidence you set out being found/confirmed/processed. I hear the sounds of frustration from NB's family in the papers today, and I understand their POV, despite thinking that the police are probably right here, and that poor NB did enter the water that day.

Other posters more experienced than me have mentioned a tactical aspect to LE doing this, which I take on board.

 

[Sandyuk]

I wonder if anything happened near rowanwater area whether someone could have gone the cross country back lane to the bench to place phone and dog? I know that sounds pretty far fetched but wonder if possible

I was just thinking about this. Didn’t the second witness at 9.10 am say he was heading toward Rowanwater?

 

[ginnyw]

The idea that NB may have had some paperwork (discussed earlier on this forum) with her if she was sitting on the bench is a really interesting one. So (this is JMO): she sits down, listens into the conference call, keeps an eye on Willow, maybe gets out some paper (from where? Did she have any bag, or was it in pocket etc?). Needs both hands to flick through it so puts phone down next to her for a moment. It was quite windy that day - gust of wind maybe catches a piece of paper and it blows towards the river? Leaps up, leaving phone on bench and rushes to retrieve paper? This is only an idea. MOO. Like everybody on here I really just want her to be found one way or another so that her family can know what has happened.

 

[Officer Dibble]

Why do you think Willow didn't jump in the river when Nicola fell in? Willow loved the river and had been in it before..

Also, what is this tennis ball theory? Do we have any evidence Nicola had been throwing a tennis ball around to Willow at that time? Or is it all just a theory?

If a dog doesn't like jumping at height but knew if the way to the 'beach' area of river not far away that they could enter the water then MAYBE that is why the dog was between the gate and the bench.

 

[PeggyHenry]

Maybe she required a signature on the paperwork .. is it out the question she met up with someone on this walk?

 

[lourah]

First Post for me
Just some wonderings of mine about her potentially sitting on the bench and the teams call.
I've had a dog previously and if there is things you want / don't want them to do then you adjust your walk accordingly. So if she sat on that bench listening to the call you are going to want your dog predominantly in front of you where you can see it. It doesn't look a huge amount of space between there and the waters edge so if I was to sit there I would want to have confidence that my dog would be able to get up and down the slope / bank itself especially if it would be likely to want to go in the water. If I had a tennis ball I wouldn't be throwing it there - I may angle myself back to the field and throw it in that direction- it could then roll down the bank to the water as the dog brought it back but less likely to enter the water.

Then there is the sitting / waiting at the bench itself. The walk she has done previously is around 30 minutes, the Teams call lasted approximately 30 minutes. As a busy mum myself sometimes having to multitask work calls etc and having lots crammed into a day before school pick up I'd want to utilise my time the best I could. If my dog had had a good walk / run, this one had walking up the tow bath and running off lead, then I would be just carrying on back to the car so that by the time I'd arrived, towelled the dog (tummy would be wet from the grass) and I was in and belted ready to set off for home as soon as the call ended. What were her plans for the day work / home wise? Can you do a teams call in a car if she had blutooth etc?
Just my thoughts on some areas of this case

 

[annpats]

Maybe she required a signature on the paperwork .. is it out the question she met up with someone on this walk?

Without evidence of anything, I don't think anything can be out of the question.
All possibilities are still on the table.

 

[PeggyHenry]

Can’t help feeling the dog / ball is a distraction from what happened. She was on a dog walk and disappeared and has not been seen for one week. The dog was found agitated that its owner had gone. The dog does not appear to have been in the river. It is worth considering that some other person played a part, surely?

 

[Cuko]

I was just thinking about this. Didn’t the second witness at 9.10 am say he was heading toward Rowanwater?

I just don’t think a dog would have allowed itself to be “placed” anywhere by a stranger, specially not when it had arrived at the park with its owner. My own dog would object to that vociferously and would not co-operate.

 

[Sandyuk]

Why do you think Willow didn't jump in the river when Nicola fell in? Willow loved the river and had been in it before..

Also, what is this tennis ball theory? Do we have any evidence Nicola had been throwing a tennis ball around to Willow at that time? Or is it all just a theory?

Because when Willow was seen she wasn’t wet. The police already said she was dry.

 

[pineapple23]

Nicola's friend said they stopped taking a ball a year ago Missing Nicola Bulley's friend questions 'dog ball in river' theory amid search

 

[Meesh1772]

Sorry if this has already been discussed but , I find it very odd that her telephone screen didn’t lock itself at all , from when it was found on the bench until the call to the school was made? My phone goes into standby on the screen if it isn’t used for a certain amount of time ? How did they manage to keep the screen unlocked until 10.50 - unless she didn’t have a password to open her phone of course! It is very puzzling . I hope she is found soon

 

[Casseus]

I suspect the family can’t bear to face the unthinkable, which is understandable. They must be in utter hell. So to face the possibility that Nikki fell into the river and realise she can’t have survived is too painful to consider; hence why they’re clutching onto her being taken by someone. It’s understandable.

But logically the likelihood is that Nikki either slipped or tumbled in the river. Had she gone off somewhere or had been abducted Willow would have followed her. Willow stayed at that spot as it was the last place she saw her, and even she may not have noticed Nikki falling into the river. She may have been searching around the bank looking for the ball looking in the opposite direction.

IMO MOO- if I was the family and watched police focus on a hypothesis with no evidence to support it I would be very anxious and despairing. Their pleas seem to be asking the public to not give up on Nicola and just accept she fell in the river because the case then will lose notoriety and people will “forget” about her. It happens a lot when people go missing, it’s big news for a week or two and then before you know it it’s not talked about anymore, six months later people just refer to it as “remember that woman who went missing, wonder if they ever found her”.

I live 20 miles from St Michaels and still in Lancashire, went to lunch yesterday with 6 people and 2 of the 6 didn’t know about it, they annoyingly said “oh yeah a woman from down south wasn’t it?” No. A woman, mother of two less than 20 miles from here.

 

[annpats]

NB's sister seemed quite sure that there was no ball to start off with and that NB had stopped using one, although they did last year.

It seems the police might need to do another press release giving out a few facts. Lots of contradictory information going on.

 

[annpats]

Sorry if this has already been discussed but , I find it very odd that her telephone screen didn’t lock itself at all , from when it was found on the bench until the call to the school was made? My phone goes into standby on the screen if it isn’t used for a certain amount of time ? How did they manage to keep the screen unlocked until 10.50 - unless she didn’t have a password to open her phone of course! It is very puzzling . I hope she is found soon

Maybe it doesn't lock if a Teams meeting is in progress?

A bit like if you use Google Maps as a during navigation, it doesn't go into screensaver mode then either.

I think some apps over-rode the screen saver until you finish with that particular app.

 

[todders]

These are the routes I believe back from where the bench and gate are from, the daily mail route went right at the bridge from Blackpool lane.IMO Inside 45 minutes before Nicola Bulley vanished on her favourite path Google Maps

 

[JennieM]

Sorry if this has already been discussed but , I find it very odd that her telephone screen didn’t lock itself at all , from when it was found on the bench until the call to the school was made? My phone goes into standby on the screen if it isn’t used for a certain amount of time ? How did they manage to keep the screen unlocked until 10.50 - unless she didn’t have a password to open her phone of course! It is very puzzling . I hope she is found soon

I think if you have something running like youtube it can stay unlocked