Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[Edinlass]

There was no cctv to say she came out, was the cctv to say she went in?

I don’t think so, witnesses. Although one was a mother friend from the school so I tend to believe this if not much else

 

[PineTreeSleuther]

Which caravan park site are you looking at rowenwater ? or wryeside ?

Apologies. Wyreside. Which is the one close to the bench area where her phone was found.

 

[Bluesleuth66]

She says she had already spoken to officers? She why the big appeal to find her again. So many confusing things going on

I thought also that NB dropped girls off at school at 0843. How did she interact with or get seen by red coat lady just 4 minutes later?

 

[Casseus]

I don’t think much has been said about her car?

'Abandoned' home near where missing Nicola Bulley's phone found searched

'The abandoned house is right opposite the bench on the other side of the river, over a 10ft garden wall. It’s quite posh'

www.lancs.live

This article reports it was left at the school after she dropped her daughters off and she walked from there to the river. On the map it’s not a long walk at all, a few minutes maybe. The car that was searched yesterday 9 miles away was reported as suspicious but nothing related to the disappearance was found.

Search for missing mother Nicola Bulley: Police seal off car park

Officers taped off Skippool Creek car park by the River Wyre in Poulton-le-Fylde, Lancashire.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[EyeSpyU]

There seems to be a noticeable divide between Nicola's family and the police developing. The family seems to think something happened to her but it wasn't falling into the river. Her sister seemed rather unhappy with the police's response yesterday. <modsnip>The fact is the police know more than we do I'm sure and I hope they can find Nicola, I can't imagine the pain her family and friends are going through.

I suspect the family can’t bear to face the unthinkable, which is understandable. They must be in utter hell. So to face the possibility that Nikki fell into the river and realise she can’t have survived is too painful to consider; hence why they’re clutching onto her being taken by someone. It’s understandable.

But logically the likelihood is that Nikki either slipped or tumbled in the river. Had she gone off somewhere or had been abducted Willow would have followed her. Willow stayed at that spot as it was the last place she saw her, and even she may not have noticed Nikki falling into the river. She may have been searching around the bank looking for the ball looking in the opposite direction.

 

[cottonweaver]

And the sonar equipment that his team uses is the best in the world for this type of operation.

I believe that Lancs police are already using side scan sonar in their search.

If, in the unlikely event they are not, they can 'pop down the road' and ask for specialist help from a team such as GMP and then they won't need to pay a private company.


2019 link

For larger stretches, when the search parameter is miles not metres, divers will drag a side-scan sonar “fish” behind a rigid inflatable boat. “In most cases, our job is to recover the missing person, get them back to their loved ones, and then help move the investigation forward,” explains Corcoran. Insp Dave Corcoran says his team have pulled 16 bodies from Manchester canals in the last four years

Bring up the bodies: on the beat with Manchester's underwater police

Marine diving units look for anything from phones to cars – but their priority is finding missing people

www.theguardian.com

 

[JennieM]

Are these all the possible scenarios?

Can we eliminate any?

River
- Accident - she tripped
- Medical emergency - she fell
<modsnip - topic is off limits>
- Somebody threw her in

Abduction
- She is still in the area - alive or not
- She has left the area - alive or not

Attack and murder
- She has been hidden in the vicinity
- She has been removed from the area

Has left the area
- By someone
<modsnip - topic is off limits>
- With someone's help

 

[Edinlass]

Are these all the possible scenarios?

Can we eliminate any?

River
- Accident - she tripped
- Medical emergency - she fell
<modsnip - topic is off limits>
- Somebody threw her in

Abduction
- She is still in the area - alive or not
- She has left the area - alive or not

Attack and murder
- She has been hidden in the vicinity
- She has been removed from the area

Has left the area
- By someone
<modsnip - topic is off limits>
- With someone's help

Honestly, I wouldn’t eliminate any of those because they are all possible and worth discussing. Imo

 

[annpats]

But, to me anyway, Willow wanted through that gate! Why?

Good point.

It's interesting that Willow wasn't found barking at the river or standing whining by the river front (as she might if Nicola went in the river.)

Interesting also that Willow didn't return home by herself, and I imagine with her nose and walking that route several times a week she'd know how to.

MOO.

 

[infinit]

That she fell in the river is a very reasonable assumption to make, there is no doubt about that. There is a high probability that she did. However policing has to be based on evidence, not probabilities. We kept being told when Sarah Everard disappeared that lots of people just go missing and 'run away', whereas being abducted and murdered by a stranger is very rare. However the unusual was what had happened.

We're just watching now to see what happens. But assuming one thing has happened because it is most likely, without evidence, just seems a bit too complacent for my liking.

The thing is, <modsnip> - It looks like the Police have done a thorough job. No doubt in the background they will have checked things like her bank accounts, her phone data and other records they have access to. They'll have spoken to those close to her to try to understand her life, they'll have spoken to her work to understand what occurred that morning, they've checked the CCTV in the area, they've appealed for witnesses they've not been able to trace from that CCTV and spoken to them. They've appealed for dashcam footage of the exits they can't eliminate via CCTV.

A lack of evidence can be evidence to a degree and the more entrances/exits they have covered and the more witnesses who didn't see anyone else or anything unusual along with tightening the timeline of when anything could possibly have occurred makes it really remote. As she said at the press conference, it's a hypothesis based on the evidence they have.

 

[Furore]

It’s about probabilities for me in the absence of evidence - whether drowning, abduction, or secret recruitment into MI5!

For an abduction, it is plausible someone knew her regular walk and she was pretty and knew that exit didn’t have cctv. However either they had to get her to go willingly (leaving her dog?! - can’t see it), or had to incapacitate her. Carrying a dead weight over shoulder or in arms would make the gate very hard to navigate, you’d have to stop dog following and barking, not be noticed by anyone despite open views across the fields, and no one would be able to see the car you’d parked up on closest road, despite it being commuter rush time. Just can’t see it. I would have presumed they’d have checked for scuffle marks and blood at scene also.

I have been known to trip or overbalance on dog walks retrieving something on the floor, my walks just aren’t by a river that’s incapacitatingly cold

No reason for her necklace to snap or waterlogged wellies to surface, no reason for clothing to become detached and float up. No reason for a body with no air in lungs to float either - others have pointed out this may occur later as gases from decomposition set in.

It is quite obvious that a mother will return to her children outside of death, restraint against will, or some sort of mental health episode. The latter seem very unlikely to be and I suspect the former on balance of probability until further evidence is produced. That’s as critical as I can be, doesn’t mean agreeing with the police on this one has meant ignoring other possibilities and I suspect they aren’t either.

Searching millions of litres of water for a body is no easy feat and failure to find this poor lady is by no means evidence of foul play IMO

 

[kittythehare]

I hope volunteers widen the search on public and private land while the Police concentrate on the river

MOO

Police can search private land, volunteers cannot. Not in my country anyway. Not all landowners welcome search parties. A lot of them don't welcome police searches either!
There's a lot involved in searches, people need training.

 

[Furore]

Additionally I wonder if dog was just torn between the last place it had seen her and a place it knew she might enter from - ie bench and gate

 

[dancenog]

Are these all the possible scenarios?

Can we eliminate any?

River
- Accident - she tripped
- Medical emergency - she fell
<modsnip - topic is off limits>
- Somebody threw her in

Abduction
- She is still in the area - alive or not
- She has left the area - alive or not

Attack and murder
- She has been hidden in the vicinity
- She has been removed from the area

Has left the area
- By someone
<modsnip - topic is off limits>
- With someone's help

JMO but None of those scenarios can be eliminated by us. Perhaps the police can narrow them down by fitbit info etc but with the information released then ALL are possible however probable.

 

[annpats]

Willow stayed at that spot as it was the last place she saw her, and even she may not have noticed Nikki falling into the river. She may have been searching around the bank looking for the ball looking in the opposite direction.

Why do you think Willow didn't jump in the river when Nicola fell in? Willow loved the river and had been in it before..

Also, what is this tennis ball theory? Do we have any evidence Nicola had been throwing a tennis ball around to Willow at that time? Or is it all just a theory?

 

[Cuko]

Thanks, yes I just went back to the timeline - 9.10 she was seen in upper field near lane without cctv.
I suppose if she was incapacitated by abductor she could be bundled into a car boot, while phone, dog and harness are placed on bench, to imply she fell in.
Police seem sure she was there with the phone though. Which I think they can probably be sure of because of her Fitbit.

So I am back to the caravan park / camp site.

Do we have detail on what searches have been done there by police?

I don’t recall the police mentioning anything about searching the caravan park. I hope its just that I missed the reference to it - searching those caravans should have been a very high priority.

 

[EyeSpyU]

There seems to be a noticeable divide between Nicola's family and the police developing. The family seems to think something happened to her but it wasn't falling into the river. Her sister seemed rather unhappy with the police's response yesterday. <modsnip>The fact is the police know more than we do I'm sure and I hope they can find Nicola, I can't imagine the pain her family and friends are going through.

I suspect the family can’t bear to face the unthinkable, which is understandable. They must be in utter hell. So to face the possibility that Nikki fell into the river and realise she can’t have survived is too painful to consider; hence why they’re clutching onto her being taken by someone. It’s understandable.

But logically the likelihood is that Nikki either slipped or tumbled in the river. Had she gone off somewhere or had been abducted Willow would have followed her. Willow stayed at that spot as it was the last place she saw her, and even she may not have noticed Nikki falling into the river. She may have been searching around the bank looking for the ball looking in the opposite direction.

Good point.

It's interesting that Willow wasn't found barking at the river or standing whining by the river front (as she might if Nicola went in the river.)

Interesting also that Willow didn't return home by herself, and I imagine with her nose and walking that route several times a week she'd know how to.

MOO.

willow was agitated. The person who found her said so.

She couldn’t have walked home as there’s a turnstile to go through, besides, she was waiting in that spot waiting for Nikki to come back. She may have thought Nikki would come back out of the river and couldn’t understand why she couldn’t see her.

 

[annpats]

Police can search private land, volunteers cannot. Not in my country anyway. Not all landowners welcome search parties. A lot of them don't welcome police searches either!

In the UK you don't have a choice...if the police want to search your land, they will, and get the appropriate warrants as needed.

 

[Furore]

Tennis ball was speculation by police as I understand it.

I don’t think the dog saw NB enter the water IMO (my dog often goes off sniffing whilst retrieve poo or its toy and doesn’t have eyes on me at all times) so I personally buy the idea it just stayed close to her last known sighting of her - they often advise owners to check this spot for lost dogs.

 

[Huklyh456]

Sorry if it's a bit unrelated but looking at the area on google maps it occurred to me that there seem to be quite a lot of caravan parks in the area. Can someone (maybe with knowledge of the area) comment on the general (social) structure of the area, is this a common thing around there with the caravan parks? Is it lots of tourists or people living there or how should I picture this area?