Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[themagiceye]

That was my thought too

It was a Friday morning. A lot of small companies do end of week calls first thing on a Friday.

 

[Furore]

That’s awful have to say though, my experience of a river swim in January (wetsuit), time limit of six mins (they say a min per degree because of after-cooling) the cold was paralysing. Unless you’ve tried it, you wouldn’t believe it. And she had heavy clothes, shock and potentially undercurrents. She may well also not have been a strong swimmer or swam for many years - not everyone does. Those poor little girls

 

[kittythehare]

You're assuming whoever is responsible is a stranger.

I am not assuming anything at all, I am creating a hypothetical person based on my imagination.

 

[Cranky]

And where is NB at this point?

If we knew that we wouldn't be on here trying to figure it out. A quick smack to the head and hidden in the bushes if we're following the original line of action that I replied to maybe?

 

[Spoony]

Maybe that's why there are no slip marks, as she may have slipped on her long gillet.

 

[jackal67]

You would think so yes. If you were to stumble and could see you were about to fall or anlready in the process of falling into a river you would naturally scream/shout imo.

but there was no one around to hear even if she did

 

[chimpop]

I feel quite deflated after todays press conference - I still had hope that she may have been abducted so at least a chance she may be alive somewhere but now a tragic river accident sounds like the only feasible option. No chance of surviving that. Awful. God know how her family are feeling.

Need to find her

 

[Deleted member 240694]

IMO nothing can be ruled out until either she or verifiable evidence is found

LE though are ruling out 3rd party / criminality involvement.

 

[3point5]

I presume that her phone screen was unlocked to show the call.

Say NB was abducted, how would the person know that she was muted etc? They'd have been taking a very big chance.

There's just so much that would have had to go perfectly for an abduction that I just can't even entertain the idea IMO.

It's a very small time window. There were other people at least relatively nearby. They'd have had to know exactly where any cameras or doorbells were around the area. They'd have to be sure no cars, on the one exit without cameras, had dashcams running. They'd have had to know she wasn't unmuted on the teams call. And that's before you go through all the other things that often get killers caught.

 

[Taskforce88]

If we knew that we wouldn't be on here trying to figure it out. A quick smack to the head and hidden in the bushes if we're following the original line of action that I replied to maybe?

So in your scenario NB has been hit and planted in bushes, then the attacker crosses the field with the dog and items to plant them before heading back to NB's location?

 

[Firstsnow4]

It's a tiny window, is all.
They are conducting a very thorough investigation and I'm really confident about saying that and believe me if I thought otherwise I'd be saying that.
I don't like their conclusions but I have no reason to doubt them.
They may need to update their website to reflect what Supt was actually saying, I see no other anomalies
except the dog but that is pretty significant and I think it is for them too.
The dog and the non cctv exit are the ONLY 2 crumbs we get to work with.
We have been flat out at it all week and every stone we could find was turned several times..
That's the process.

What they did not say but I think is safe to assume is that they pulled every record of every person known to be in the area at the time and analysed each one..

But maybe one sneaked in there, aware of the lack of CCTV cos stalking.. maybe he was an accomplished criminal. But what was his motive? Why would he have left the phone when he could so easily have chucked it in the river? How did this hypothetical criminal or person of evil intent get her out of there to where her own dog couldn't find her? Why ? They will have micro analysed her phone, computers everything by now, they clearly saw nothing nefarious.
And where as the hypothetical one could have superman abilities to move like a monkey, unseen and fast , what would have been in it for him? I don't see a gain for him unless he just liked doing it...
I'm at a wall now.

Yes I agree I am struggling now with alternatives.
1. If she made it to the bench, then something must have either drawn her to the river in a hurry (for her to leave the phone behind) and she slipped in and sadly drowned.
2. Or someone grabbed her at the bench from behind and somehow managed to get her out of the area without being seen (perhaps with a weapon) and the phone was left at the bench.
3. Or someone grabbed her prior to the bench and then planted the items straight after. (Possibly someone known to her)
4. The only other possible scenario I can come up with is the second witness who saw her at 9.10 is either unreliable or not telling the truth. But unless he was the perp what would be the purpose?
5. The people that found Nicolas belongings and dog were lying about the timeline and were potentially involved somehow.

And 2 & 3 above has got to happen in such a short time frame and without being seen on CCTV. Very stealth IMO. Time for bed for me.

 

[Gers76]

Now THIS I can believe the kneeling and trying to get up again and losing balance. The only bit I can't accept is Supt Riley said it was ankle length. (NB is not tall). So with that then your theory works even more. I think the clothing played a part before she fell in the water. (If she wasn't pushed in). JMO MOO

On Nicola FB page on a photo from 5th Dec she is wearing what I presume is the gilet it does seem pretty long on her probably mid shin

 

[Cuko]

They obviously have the fitbit data, only said on the police conference this afternoon she was wearing one with a light blue strap, this would record where phone is, heart rate etc, so guess they knew from the data in the very limited time spam where her phone was and heart rate

I’m a bit ignorant about Fitbits. Would it show if a heartbeat actually ceased?

 

[PandaMarch]

Correct, LE don't know where NB is at this point, so they are putting all the eggs in one basket & simply guessing that she must be in the river, although, as I understand it, they have no way of proving this.

not until they have full dash cam footage of the time period in question of the G Road/Lane exit, or they find her of course

 

[kittythehare]

On Nicola FB page on a photo from 5th Dec she is wearing what I presume is the gilet it does seem pretty long on her probably mid shin

She is 5'3.

Lancashire Constabulary - MFH Nicola Bulley - latest update

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

lancashire.police.uk

 

[JennieM]

Without being seen by the 4 people who saw her

The people who saw her were not all around at the same time and no one could see NB for a good 10 minutes (and possibly longer). If someone was already waiting near the gate, then 10 min would be enough.

But, why would someone want to do that? For a quick attack like that, there would be no sexual motive. So it would either be someone deranged or it would be a personal attack.

 

[Cranky]

So in your scenario NB has been hit and planted in bushes, then the attacker crosses the field with the dog and items to plant them before heading back to NB's location?

No, I'd go for the falling over the gilet myself as I fell down the stairs after tripping over my trousers. I was just pointing out that someone who was known to NB could easily come up with an excuse.

 

[Firstsnow4]

I’m a bit ignorant about Fitbits. Would it show if a heartbeat actually ceased?

Yes it can do - I believe it was used in this case Greek cops probe smartwatch owned by Brtish mum Caroline Crouch

 

[Furore]

In terms of falling it’s a possibility an excited dog leaping about could have made her lose her balance whilst peering over edge - mine would be a liability

 

[Deleted member 240694]

What an incredible village

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621624953475833856

I get the impression that the public are rejecting LE / Supt. Riley's logic & reasoning behind the hypothesis that NB has drowned and that there is no 3rd party or criminality involvement in her disappearance. The public are clearly not giving up hope that NB may still be alive, perhaps taken against her will – and are pulling out all the stops, determined to find her & bring her home.