Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[cottonweaver]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621787477835931650

Understandable reaction from friends and family but LE have to work on hypotheses, often several at once, based on the info or absence of info that they have, until that info changes.
Fingers crossed that there's some cctv/dashcam from Garstang Road exit which means that LE can drop their current theory & she has not drowned & been carried downstream

BTW, the list of search tasks that LE have done since she has gone missing is huge.

 

[kittythehare]

<modsnip - quoted post removed>

I wasn't expecting what came yesterday.
Unusually, for me, I didn't go into rage mode but I saw loads of it everywhere I looked and it was hard to witness it.

<modsnip>

I did have a few looks at the job they appeared to be doing and I was impressed by that okay. i knew they were good.

I'm not going to take it on myself to examine witnesses times where objects ended up or how they might have got there because it's none of my business unless it's a glaring wrong.
They know how to handle that stuff and I trust them to do it.
She went in and she didn't come out is all.
She's still in there even though the river may have taken her away.
A weapon would have separated her from Willow or the threat of it.
She could have been taken outside the fence but not removed from the park and an abductor/kidnapper/potential sex offender could possibly have held her somewhere only he knew until after dark and somehow got out via the non cctv route. That all kind of suggests he would have had local knowledge or is local.

Lindsay Birbeck was moved in a wheeliebin.

Moment a 16-year-old killer drags a woman's body in a wheelie bin

Speaking to a new documentary, DSI Andy Cribbin, who led the investigation into the murder of Lindsay Birbeck shared how killer Rocky Marciano Price moved the body in Lancashire.

www.dailymail.co.uk

A 16 year old kid with no criminal record.
Anything is possible.

There could be areas of that park known only to children or adults who learned about them as children.
Maybe tunnels, underground areas, exits not known to many..local knowledge stuff..
Might be worth trying to pull some ancient maps to figure out what existed, where it's located now and possible means of access..
The river isn't working for me because the dog wasn't wet.

 

[ShireChe]

Just a few thoughts and also I'm a bit confused by the slightly contradictory stories of who found willow and where she was etc and the following sequence of events prior to the PA/LE arriving

There was one version of someone who found Willow but had an appointment and didn't have time to hang around so tied her to the bench, but that seems absent from the police timelines, so is that even true? And if so, is it the same person who has said willow was 'bone dry'. It sounds like this person was in something of a rush and not likely to be paying 100% attention. If Willow actually had been in the water, would this change the perception.

I'm sure I read that both NB and PA regularly do the walks, obviously I don't know how regularly PA may be doing the walks, but he should be able to give a decent account of the sort of behaviour expected from Willow in and around the water.

LE mentioned a theory that the dog may have had an 'issue' causing NB to go towards the water. Could this be based on info from PA about Willow's past behaviour or health or just one of a few reasons for why NB, in their opinion ended up in the water

 

[EvaP]

As to why the dog wasn't wet, is it possible that NB didn't reach the beachy area in the furthest away field and had turned back towards the bench? She was supposedly spotted near this location by a witness. Did something make her turn back I wonder.

Most of the river walk is 'steep' embankment and the shingle area is easy access for the dog to get into the water. Lots of photos show this to be the dogs favourite spot in the water.

That being at the far end of the upper field where she was spotted. I agree it’s where I’d take my dog, who is a paddler not a swimmer. Maybe she was time limited that morning and needed to get back for work, went to get Willow on at bench or saw something that made her approach the bank. It’s all what ifs and nobody knows. Only the river will give up the answers when and if the poor lady is found.

 

[Beepboopbeep82]

Sorry if it's already been touched upon, but regarding the description of NBs clothing, why was the necklace description so vague? Detail went into her jackets and other clothing but surely a necklace would be the most personal item she was wearing? If they DO suspect somebody but the public aren't privy, could they be attempting to see if the perp slips up, maybe with the description not public? Not sure in what way that would be and not casting aspersions MOO.

 

[BaronessWombat]

There was one version of someone who found Willow but had an appointment and didn't have time to hang around so tied her to the bench, but that seems absent from the police timelines, so is that even true? And if so, is it the same person who has said willow was 'bone dry'. It sounds like this person was in something of a rush and not likely to be paying 100% attention. If Willow actually had been in the water, would this change the perception.

The 8.57 soft play text message is also missing from the official timeline. Missing mum texted her friend a significant message minutes before going missing

Any mention of dog poo bags anywhere? Would they be in her pocket? Would they fall out of her pocket? Did she put a bag of poo somewhere?

 

[JeremyBentham]

Just a few thoughts and also I'm a bit confused by the slightly contradictory stories of who found willow and where she was etc and the following sequence of events prior to the PA/LE arriving

There was one version of someone who found Willow but had an appointment and didn't have time to hang around so tied her to the bench, but that seems absent from the police timelines, so is that even true? And if so, is it the same person who has said willow was 'bone dry'. It sounds like this person was in something of a rush and not likely to be paying 100% attention. If Willow actually had been in the water, would this change the perception.

I'm sure I read that both NB and PA regularly do the walks, obviously I don't know how regularly PA may be doing the walks, but he should be able to give a decent account of the sort of behaviour expected from Willow in and around the water.

LE mentioned a theory that the dog may have had an 'issue' causing NB to go towards the water. Could this be based on info from PA about Willow's past behaviour or health or just one of a few reasons for why NB, in their opinion ended up in the water

How quickly did others or the police get to the scene and Willow? If Willow had been in the water would she have dried by the time they got there. It was a cold day, I'm not sure the dog would have dried that in time. They would have thoroughly checked her and surely still be wet in places if had gone fully in the water?

 

[kittythehare]

Something not mentioned here yet, IMO the police would also know when the phone was touched by the 9.33am witness and what happened to it until the 999 call from looking at the telephone/gyroscope data.

Ah I imagine they fingerprinted it as well. I'm not worried about the phone at all and see no need to try to disprove what they are saying.

 

[Falconaire]

There are lots of anomalies with this case, why didn’t the police
tape the bench off as it seems to be the main hive of activity, they may have missed NB footprints leading down the bank or something to indicate NB entered the water. The witness who found Willow and the phone, why would you just tie her to the bench and how did she do it, did she put the harness back on then tie her to the bench, or did she use something else, harnesses can sometimes be tricky to put on if it’s new to you, why leave her tied up? Finding the mobile, Willow and no NB would sound alarm bells to me, I would be doing a visual check of the river whilst ringing the police! My first thought would be could she be in the water.JMO

 

[Sarahlou]

I live a few yards from a river, it's not as deep as the River Wyre but it's regularly fast flowing in winter ( uplands) so I tend to notice river accidents more than I would if I didn't, particularly cause we walk our dog very close to it.

Just had a look at the stats to get the bigger picture& see if they are actually increasing

• "Inland open waters, such as rivers, canals,lakes, reservoirs and quarries continue to be the leading locations with 58% of deaths (N=139). ( leading cause of all water-related deaths)
• Almost half of (43%) people had no intention to enter the water, such as those walking, with causes including slips, trips and falls, being cut off by the tide, or swept in by waves (N= 107).
• Following a concerning increase in water-related deaths last year, over 50 organisations are, for the first time, issuing coordinated water safety advice for those visiting and enjoying waterways and coastlines as part of the #RespectTheWater campaign Public urged to “Respect the Water” as new statistics show drowning deaths increased last year, with more dying inland than around the coast. | National Water Safety Forum"
• At the download charts, there were 65 deaths recorded in rivers for that year, in England alone - 2021- just related to walking or running near a river.

The bolded bit is a bit of an eye opener. 65 deaths just from walking or running near a river. Not sure what figure I would have expected though.

 

[starlightstarbright]

It just seems so difficult to imagine that in a relatively shallow, slow moving river, NB could have fallen in sometime between say 9:20 (accounting for time to get from upper field back to the bench) and 9:30 (when she didn’t sign off Teams meeting) and to not be still clearly visible to the (two?) people who walked past at 9:35 and found the phone and put it on the bench and then presumably must have walked on down river into lower/upper fields.

The placement of harness/lead and phone on ground is also odd. I am just imagining myself but if I was on a call, and I got up off the bench to do something (like put the dog’s harness on/retrieve a ball) I’d likely (a) leave my phone on the bench - which is what we originally thought, or (b) I’d put it in my coat pocket so my hands were free. I wouldn’t place it on the ground to do something and even if I had it in my hand and slipped, I think I’d almost certainly hold on to it and take it with me as I fell.

MOO Everything being found on the ground indicates it was dropped or thrown and I’m trying to imagine a scenario when I would do this - surprise, panic, someone scaring me, but I’m not sure I’d drop things just because I tripped (in fact, I’ve many times just gone tumbling down holding my phone/keys/etc).

 

[brownbread]

Sometimes when you fall over you can lose your balance and stumble quite a distance before you either right yourself or fall flat. Doubly so if you are on a slope or uneven ground.

So I think it’s quite possible Nicola could have stumbled from a point not even that close to the edge of the bank and practically ‘run’ into the water while carried forward on the momentum of an initial stumble.

So I don’t think she necessarily needs a reason to have been going particularly close to the edge of the steep bank or retrieving a ball from the water or anything - simply walking about anywhere on the slope could potentially have been enough, and you can stumble along while remaining on your feet so not leaving obvious skid or slip marks.

I once witnessed someone trip over a step at a train station and they stumbled about 3m-4m forward and ended up over the edge of the platform onto the track (fortunately they seemed to be fine, they were helped up back onto the platform) - it looked almost as if they just launched themselves onto the train track. I could imagine a similar stumble in this case but leading over the edge of the riverbank.

 

[AnalyticalMind]

I'm trying to get my head around why the harness was found on the floor, why not on the bench if NB was sitting down listening to her call.

Maybe she had bent down to put the harness back on after her teams meeting, if it was about to end?

 

[Tri-Lambda delta]

In my opinion: This is just my own story and applying LOGIC.

Dog lead on bench = no one else was around that she felt safe enough to let the dog roam.
Dog then spots a waterbird on the river, gets excited and in puruit jumps in.
Dog barks, struggles to get out of riverbank.
She knows she has to enter the river to save what she loves most.
Wants to places phone on the bank (her first thought) but places it safely on the bench (taking more time)
Guiltily (after making the dog wait - be it mere seconds) she steps in...and as many have mentioned above (water temperature causes shock) ...and like her pet she is placed in the same situation.
But manages to push the dog out. (Panic at the bank) Relief from saving her dog creates an elation that drains her own strength...the strength needed to escape her own fate. She needed adrenaline.

A tragedy.​

(There shoud be at least ONE place on the bank with torn grass... scrapes (maybe a still snapped branch) from where she helped lift her dog out... but she herself succumbed.)

This SPOT will be real close to the BENCH.
Although her body placed elsewhere by the current.
Literally sliped away.

 

[cottonweaver]

The bolded bit is a bit of an eye opener. 65 deaths just from walking or running near a river. Not sure what figure I would have expected though.

sorry Sarahlou, have since edited the post, it's 23 river deaths in England from walking or running near a river in 2021! ( not 65, that's the grand total of all people ending up dying in waters due to walking/running)

Nonetheless, surprised to see the contrast with numbers of drowning deaths from ' animal rescue' ( going in after their dogs?) It's only 1 in 2021. Maybe the public has really learned that you shouldn't attempt to rescue your pet? Annual reports and data | National Water Safety Forum

 

[Sandyuk]

Hang on a minute. Just watching Sky News and reporter Martin Brunt is giving the timeline and saying at 8.47 NB was seen by red coat lady, that they knew each other and their dogs interacted before red coat lady left the area.
I thought in other reports red coat lady was baffled as to why the police wanted to speak to her as she had already told them she didn’t see NB???

Woman who police sought over Nicola Bulley's disappearance saw nothing

Police issued a public appeal for a woman seen in CCTV wearing a red coat on River Wyre around the time Ms Bulley vanished last Friday morning.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[JeremyBentham]

There could also be a medical reason why she fell in. Fainted, had a stroke, heart attack. Unlikely, but possible. She walked down the steps to the edge and then fell in, unable to save herself. The falling in isn't a mystery to me, as that could be many reason why. It's the why she was close to the edge in the first place.

- I'm assuming she was already close to the edge due to the lack of evidence that she fell from the top, which you would expect to leave more noticeable markings.

 

[todders]

The witness the police were trying to find the other day which was the lady with the red coat and white dog, was the picture of her from a doorbell/cctv from allotment lane as well.If that is the case we do have some sort of coverage in that area especially if the camera is triggered by movement.IMO

Woman who police sought over Nicola Bulley's disappearance saw nothing

 

[JimmyBets]

In all these cases, family cling onto hope. It's completely understandable.

I think there’s a big difference between clinging onto hope which is completely natural and going onto the worlds biggest social media platform and strongly opposing what the police said only hours before.
JMO It’s also an unusual picture to use

 

[AnalyticalMind]

I'm ten pages behind at the moment (having been here since it was first reported NB was missing) and it has been raised but I'm unsure if anyone has questioned exactly (if the fitbit info was indeed able to be retrieved) would it show an increase/erratic heart rate, if she had gotten into difficulty (either in water of otherwise) and does it track oxygen levels (as in some Samsung phones have pulse oximeters), apologies, I know nothing about fitbits.