Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

[Deleted member 320164]

From a video i've seen the water does flow quite fast over the weir but PF said that after the weir it's shallow and rocky and a body wouldn't go past there

Thanks that’s useful info.

Yes I’ve seen the water flow over the weir there but the body would have to be floating to go over it I think. On the bottom it would just get stuck.

 

[todders]

The gyro & accelerometer in a phone can also gauge relative height, from the force and velocity picked up by the accelerometer. They’ll know from the logs of that data when the phone moved downwards as N sat on the bench with it in her hand, and then when it moved downwards again when she placed it on the bench. I think their confidence in stating “on the bench” comes from a combination of that plus also being able to tell from the gyro & accelerometer data that the phone didn’t move between 9:20 and the moment it was picked up from the bench by the woman who found it.

Very well explained and detailed thank you

 

[UK Girl]

Agree, every river is different & I think this is part of the problem ( media reporting mainly one person who says she ought to have been found many days ago)

Link to presser transcript
Sally Riley Superintendent:
' As I said on Friday, the river is a complex area to search it's not a still water, it's a fast flowing, moving water that is tidal in parts and, as acknowledged by some of the many national search advisors and experts that we've been consulting throughout, this makes it particularly complex. We have already discounted particular areas of the river but as they are tidal, we have researched them to ensure that nothing has been washed back into those search areas.'

Found Deceased - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

No. I should apologise here. I am new to this forum and I failed to add IMO after the statement. I have no knowledge about this whatsoever and my suggestion the dog harness may have been in the River was speculation. Sorry if it appeared to be factual. I did not intend this and will be more...

www.websleuths.com

are we allowed to link to the fb page of SGI? AS a guy who works on the river has commented about that statement?

 

[mrjitty]

The gyro & accelerometer in a phone can also gauge relative height, from the force and velocity picked up by the accelerometer. They’ll know from the logs of that data when the phone moved downwards as N sat on the bench with it in her hand, and then when it moved downwards again when she placed it on the bench. I think their confidence in stating “on the bench” comes from a combination of that plus also being able to tell from the gyro & accelerometer data that the phone didn’t move between 9:20 and the moment it was picked up from the bench by the woman who found it.

Agreed

The real point is that it was placed in its recovery location at 9.20

The mixture of gyroscope, GPS and witness info, may give them a very accurate idea of when she was last with the phone - for example if she was walking her circuit with the dog, while listening to the call, all uninterrupted movement, then places the phone down at 9.20 - then in effect they know whatever happened, happened after that.

Similarly the location data no doubt corroborates her being seen walking with the dog - and they will know exactly where she was when she joined the call ...

They may even be able to estimate the phone orientation.

We don't know what all that data looks like

my 02c

 

[Kike76]

This has been posted before but this excellent drone footage (link below)of the bench area and river to the weir.
My observations:
bank is steep in most places.
If she fell in and was incapacitated she might have ended up downstream to the weir but probably not beyond that. It is not terribly far. Presumably that area has been extensively searched.
Maybe she fell in upstream away from the weir (perhaps chasing the dog down the river edge path.
Maybe she fell in at the bench area but decided, knowing the existence of the weir, to try and head upstream to find any easier place to climb out and succumbed to hypothermia.
She could have fallen in considerably further from the bench if she ran off chasing her dog or something similar .
I think the river will provide the answer at some point .
I guess another possibility is she accidentally left her phone at or on the bench and went off walking and had an accident some way from this area somewhere not extensively searched yet.

MSN

 

[Allabouttrial]

HI, this question is for the Brits who live locally to St. Michael’s, or similar towns in Lancashire:

This is a question regarding the video footage of the paths leading to the bench and the fields (NB's last known movements):

It is quite clear that the canopy of tree limbs hanging down over this walkway have been trimmed. The overhead branches look nicely “squared off” so taller people don’t get smacked in the face as they hike along the trail.

Who is responsible for this excellent Trail Maintenance?

1. The adjacent residential property owners to the trail?
2. The caravan park owner, or any nearby businesses to the trail?
3. “The Town” of St. Michael’s itself (such as a Dept. of Public Works, like in the States)?
4. Some other entity, such as a volunteer organization?

These “groundskeepers” are doing a very good job, as it appears there is a clear-cut and recent “squaring off” of the tree limbs, where NB was dog-walking before she disappeared.

I hope that the Lancashire Police interviews these groundskeepers. It might help the investigation to ask them if they saw any suspicious activity the last few weeks, such as:

1. People lurking, following and/or observing dog-walkers on their regular hikes.
2. People gaining unauthorized access to any secured “out-houses”, sheds, etc. in this area by the river.
3. People "cutting through" and using alternative dirt routes through the thickets to go back and forth to the car park.

Groundskeepers often observe and note “strange activity” even before the general public sees it because they know the surrounding land so well.

(JMO)

Wyre Council are responsible for the maintenance of Garstang riverside path and many other areas around there.

Rural Wyre parks and spaces – Wyre Council

Locations and information for parks and spaces located in rural Wyre.

www.wyre.gov.uk

 

[JennieM]

are we allowed to link to the fb page of SGI? AS a guy who works on the river has commented about that statement?

dbm

 

[Allabouttrial]

are we allowed to link to the fb page of SGI? AS a guy who works on the river has commented about that statement?

Nope, not unless the post been quoted in an MSM article.

 

[UK Girl]

I think one thing we can say is that if she went into the river at the suggested point she wouldn’t have reached the sea within anywhere close to 88 hours. So their extensive searches within the first few days should have found her. But rivers can be incredibly difficult.

dbm

 

[Wishbone]

I don't know is the honest answer. It took a good few weeks for Libby Squire to get to the mouth of the Humber.

I like to call it critical thinking, but maybe it's just my tendency to be suspicious of everything. I've followed many criminal cases on here and my thinking is firmly stuck there. There are many things I'm questioning and I'm finding it hard to accept that NB just fell in the river for one reason or another. But, her not being found promptly is quite common with drownings, especially in rivers. I guess only time will tell. Until then I have to keep my suspicions to myself.....

 

[SpursGyal]

It seems an unpopular opinion but I trust what PF says.
He’s an expert in his field, he knows how rivers work, he knows how bodies in rivers act. There are a lot of comparisons going on to other cases, but this river and the suspected point of entry are very different.

The search started within hours.

There is a reason him and his team are highly regarded and are used by police forces in the south of the country.

 

[Firstsnow4]

I think one thing we can say is that if she went into the river at the suggested point she wouldn’t have reached the sea within anywhere close to 88 hours. So their extensive searches within the first few days should have found her. But rivers can be incredibly difficult.

That’s what I find hard to believe - the search and rescue team were out within hours of NB going missing according to this source. How did no one spot her? I appreciate it didn’t include divers so if PF is right that a body would sink and then stay at the bottom, maybe they wouldn’t have spotted her on the river in those first few hours. JMO.

'Abandoned' home near where missing Nicola Bulley's phone found searched

'The abandoned house is right opposite the bench on the other side of the river, over a 10ft garden wall. It’s quite posh'

www.lancs.live

 

[Willowy]

From Google maps there are a number of outbuildings at the back of the Rowanwater site. Sheds or bin stores? Do we know if they have been searched? I would assume so?

Also have there been any sub surface surveys carried out of the area? Of the fields rather than the river? Are there any underground drainage or sewerage systems in the fields around there?

 

[GTB72]

I like to call it critical thinking, but maybe it's just my tendency to be suspicious of everything. I've followed many criminal cases on here and my thinking is firmly stuck there. There are many things I'm questioning and I'm finding it hard to accept that NB just fell in the river for one reason or another. But, her not being found promptly is quite common with drownings, especially in rivers. I guess only time will tell. Until then I have to keep my suspicions to myself.....

Yes, I have my suspicions too but I won't allude them.

 

[penguinface]

Very well explained and detailed thank you

You can actually test out the capabilities of the gyro and accelerometer, and how it can show changes in your phone‘s height, by downloading a free phone sensor testing app from the Google or Apple store. The one I just used to test it out for myself is called Sensor Test, on Android, and is completely free with no ads or iffy access permissions, but if you search for gyro accelerometer test, there are lots of others out there too. In the gyro testing section of the app, I can put my phone down on the floor, showing a lowering of the onscreen line graph, then lift it from the ground to above my head and see the line rise accordingly. It’s pretty geeky but quite fun and interesting too, plus it helps show what kind of data can be used by LE to determine such things.

 

[supersleuth123]

Superb questions. Let’s hope a reporter is reading this and will pose them.

We should be so lucky! Part of my thinking for this line of questioning:

1. Establish more concrete timelines (at least for NB entering, assuming she did)

2. Use these to corroborate and make more accurate the timings stated by witnesses

3. Establish that it is "perfectly expected" that people exiting the field (the witnesses) *would* be seen - to bring more credence to the idea that NB must have not left, ergo she must be in the water. Ie - is it generally hard to establish someone leaving the area, or just hard for NB?

4.If they did pass the bench on their exit, what did they see and when

5. If any of their testimony is different to the video evidence, why?

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

I don't know is the honest answer. It took a good few weeks for Libby Squire to get to the mouth of the Humber.

Libby Squire's body was not found for many weeks but that does not mean it took weeks to reach the Humber. She went in the water just a couple of miles from the Humber...and it's fast flowing. It's likely she was in the Humber a long time before she was found. Many who end up in there (e.g. those falling from the Humber Bridge) remain lost forever. A passing ship and an observant crew member were just in the right place at the right time to spot Libby.

 

[Willowy]

This has been posted before but this excellent drone footage (link below)of the bench area and river to the weir.
My observations:
bank is steep in most places.
If she fell in and was incapacitated she might have ended up downstream to the weir but probably not beyond that. It is not terribly far. Presumably that area has been extensively searched.
Maybe she fell in upstream away from the weir (perhaps chasing the dog down the river edge path.
Maybe she fell in at the bench area but decided, knowing the existence of the weir, to try and head upstream to find any easier place to climb out and succumbed to hypothermia.
She could have fallen in considerably further from the bench if she ran off chasing her dog or something similar .
I think the river will provide the answer at some point .
I guess another possibility is she accidentally left her phone at or on the bench and went off walking and had an accident some way from this area somewhere not extensively searched yet.

MSN

Nicola potentially heading upstream to get out is an interesting suggestion. There is a 'beach' area further upstream that she would have known about and would have been easier to climb out from. But then would there be signs along the riverbank of someone trying to get out?

 

[karakuchi]

I really hope the SGI team get a chance to search the body of water at Rowanwater (picture attached)
The last time a real person saw Nicola, she was in the top field by this body of water.

 

[todders]

You can actually test out the capabilities of the gyro and accelerometer, and how it can show changes in your phone‘s height, by downloading a free phone sensor testing app from the Google or Apple store. The one I just used to test it out for myself is called Sensor Test, on Android, and is completely free with no ads or iffy access permissions, but if you search for gyro accelerometer test, there are lots of others out there too. In the gyro testing section of the app, I can put my phone down on the floor, showing a lowering of the onscreen line graph, then lift it from the ground to above my head and see the line rise accordingly. It’s pretty geeky but quite fun and interesting too, plus it helps show what kind of data can be used by LE to determine such things.

So this type of data would be able to be retriveved without any specific apps and just be part of the hardware essentially built in that the police could extract with some of the systems they use on a basic level anyway. IMO