Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[Beckxsy]

Also the drone footage posted earlier I noticed the bench had a plaque of some sort already. Could this already be a memorial bench for someone at all.

 

[crazychris]

I very much doubt there is a secret aspect to this when land sea and air searches have been conducted and continue to be conducted.
police wrote to 740 drivers in an effort to collect dashcam footage or witness accounts for the morning of Jan 27.

Their water searches are widely published.

They also conducted extensive 1km searches of land including private gardens and buildings.

They have never implied or suggested they have secret information and their work proves that.

These searches are extremely expensive and resource intensive.
They are not only searching water and investigating water as the only option.
There is no secret that could lead to a missing person search with so many variants.

This is the best and most comprehensive and professional LE search I have ever witnessed in any country, it includes several police forces and a full time team of 40 detectives presently.

UK - Nicola Bulley, St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 27, 2023 *MEDIA, MAPS, & TIMELINES - NO DISCUSSION*

www.websleuths.com

Yet they're sure she went in the water. Why? Do you think it's just because her things and dog were near the river and so far she's not been seen leaving the area? Nothing more? Sorry, still think there's something else. Didn't the lead cop say that Peter "doesn't know what we know"

 

[Deleted member 320164]

''Near' a river and within 6 feet of a muddy, slippery, steep riverbank are 2 different things.

The point stands though that just because she was near a body of water doesn’t mean she went in it. Only 400 people drown per year in the UK, whereas there are 6500+ cases of recorded kidnapping. And assault of women is even more common.

Each case has to be considered on its own evidence and its own merits.

We’d have to look at how many abductions happened near water to evaluate your claim.

 

[Fishwick]

Yet they're sure she went in the water. Why? Do you think it's just because her things and dog were near the river and so far she's not been seen leaving the area? Nothing more? Sorry, still think there's something else. Didn't the lead cop say that Peter "doesn't know what we know"

They’re not sure. They have never said they are sure. It’s their working hypothesis but they are investigating other options as and when information comes in.

 

[Night Shift]

The point stands though that just because she was near a body of water doesn’t mean she went in it.

Only 400 people drown per year in the UK, whereas there are 6500+ cases of recorded kidnapping.

And assault of women is even more common.

Each case has to be considered on its own evidence and its own merits.

And in the absence of any solid evidence, the police senior officer always always has to follow the most likely scenario. And they are in this case.

 

[kittythehare]

Yet they're sure she went in the water. Why? Do you think it's just because her things and dog were near the river and so far she's not been seen leaving the area? Nothing more? Sorry, still think there's something else. Didn't the lead cop say that Peter "doesn't know what we know"

which I took to mean that he does not have access to all the expertise they have as listed in the link I gave you.
Coastguard have far superior training and expertise than he does as well as endless resources and databases. RNLI ? National Search agency?
This isn't hard and he is one with one instrument which is not useful for penetrating mud or silt..

 

[crazychris]

And in the absence of any solid evidence, the police senior officer always always has to follow the most likely scenario. And they are in this case.

Okay, a step further then. Would the intense searches of the river producing nothing change it being the most likely scenario? Suppose they think she's in the sea now.

 

[cottonweaver]

The point stands though that just because she was near a body of water doesn’t mean she went in it. Only 400 people drown per year in the UK, whereas there are 6500+ cases of recorded kidnapping. And assault of women is even more common.

Each case has to be considered on its own evidence and its own merits.

We’d have to look at how many abductions happened near water to evaluate your claim.

Do you think - based on the stats you've given - that she has been kidnapped?

 

[Night Shift]

Okay, a step further then. Would the intense searches of the river producing nothing change it being the most likely scenario?

Typically, if the searches draw a blank then the police would usually just carry on with their other lines of inquiry that they had already been working on, until any new evidence leads them elsewhere.

 

[Googysleuth]

I remain to be convinced by 3rd party involvement, it seems such a stretch to me.

We are mostly all agreed that if someone was to take NB, it would need to be meticulously planned.

So that means the potential perp would have likely done some scouting. How can they be sure as to NB's behaviour and movements once she's by the river or in the fields? That means they might have followed her before the day in question. So, multiple chances to be witnessed, captured on camera, for NB to say to her partner 'Ive seen the same guy following me twice this week'.

Then there are the variables. How would the perp truly know how the dog would react or behave? A frightened animal. How could they be sure that this isn't the one day NB is unmuted on her meeting? How could the perp minimise the risk of being seen committing the crime by random walkers? Not just committing the crime, but also running down to the bench with the phone.

Then, speaking of the phone, if this was planned so carefully, why leave the phone on the bench? Why not drop it by the water's edge or on the bank? Why not leave a boot floating in the water, or a print in the mud on the bank? So to minimise all suspicion.

There is too much risk of failure IMO. It's far more plausible that it was an accidental fall, or that NB walked out via the broken CCTV route.

All MOO of course

 

[Casseus]

The only creature that knows what really happened to NB, and is 'accesible' is the dog, and obviously a third party if foul play was involved, but he/she'd would obviously make themselves inaccessible. So my question is how or what can be done to make the dog "reveal" what really happened? I know this sounds bonkers; but dogs are pack animals, and they do see their owners, or anyone they are close to as part of the pack. I say this because I have a dog and whenever me or my partner separate to go to say a shop etc, he becomes restless, tries to "sniff trace" where either of us have gone. So what if the scene was to be re-enacted - dog is on the river bank, and a member of NB's family who is very close to the dog feigns falling into the river. Watching how the dog reacts may provide some clues into what really happened, and by that I mean if the dog tries to get in or stands barking by the river, this could perhaps mean NB didn't fall into the river, as the dog was found elsewhere - not by the river bank. These are just my thoughts....

The dog has been back to the river

Nicola Bulley's friend shares 11 facts including dog harness location and CCTV

Tilly said she could no longer stand by and let the speculation cause 'hurt and distress' to the family

www.lancs.live

 

[crazychris]

Wonder if they've had cadaver dogs searching the whole area, grounds of properties, caravan site, riverbank, fields, the lot. Could have had an accident further along from the bridge. I'd hate to think they've missed her and some dog and walker finds her in days/weeks or months to come.

 

[pineapple23]

Wonder if they've had cadaver dogs searching the whole area, grounds of properties, caravan site, riverbank, fields, the lot. Could have had an accident further along from the bridge.

They had 'sniffer dogs'. Don't know if cadaver specific Dog squad from Cumbria Police joins search for missing woman

 

[kittythehare]

Okay, a step further then. Would the intense searches of the river producing nothing change it being the most likely scenario? Suppose they think she's in the sea now.

I don't believe it would change that.
She could be in the sea.
Then again tomorrow dashcam footage could come in with completely new information and the search may change.
She may be found in the mud.
She may be found on land already searched.. she may have burrowed but the dog would have stayed with her..
She may have been kidnapped.
LE have left all of these possibilities open, not closed.
They have assessed it themselves and invited the NCA and NSA to assess and guide too.

These are the best most experienced brains in the country.

There's nothing ad lib about any of it.
They have massive budgets to justify.

 

[Fishwick]

There is too much risk of failure IMO. It's far more plausible that it was an accidental fall, or that NB walked out via the broken CCTV route.

All MOO of course

Snipped for brevity. Quick note on the broken CCTV - this is not a publicly accessible site from the field. It’s a coded lock - so would be dependant on her having that.

 

[wackyw]

The point stands though that just because she was near a body of water doesn’t mean she went in it. Only 400 people drown per year in the UK, whereas there are 6500+ cases of recorded kidnapping. And assault of women is even more common.

Each case has to be considered on its own evidence and its own merits.

We’d have to look at how many abductions happened near water to evaluate your claim.

DBM - I meant to respond to an earlier version of this poster/post I think .....

 

[QueenofHearts12]

Its easy to remain emotionally detached somewhat to these cases while youre busy thinking of all the possibilities, logisitcs, calculations etc but this evening ive just feel a real low with the realisation that its very likely she did end up going into that water.
All I can say is I hope she fainted or had some medical issue prior to going in and she didnt suffer.
And I seriously hope that bench gets removed from that part of the river and it gets partial fencing along with any other treacherous parts on that walk to deter people somewhat from getting close. That bench is an open invitation to a hellish part of the river.
My thoughts are with the family and I pray they get the chance to put Nicola to rest if it is the case.

As someone who lives in the area and has fished there I can honestly say that this area of river isn’t dangerous. The river gets larger and much deeper miles down further towards the coast past the weir.
At the bench it’s 3ft deep at 9.30am this time of year without much of a current.

To be honest the banks really aren’t that steep there and there are actually some very small steps in that exact place going down the bank.
It would not be too difficult for a physically able person to climb out.

The search and rescue boats actually had trouble navigating that part of the river as it’s too shallow for a motor.
They had members of the team walking alongside the dinghies and they were up to their knees in the water.

If she turns up further towards the coast or out at sea I suspect she walked or ran much further down river.

 

[abcd123]

I remain to be convinced by 3rd party involvement, it seems such a stretch to me.

We are mostly all agreed that if someone was to take NB, it would need to be meticulously planned.

So that means the potential perp would have likely done some scouting. How can they be sure as to NB's behaviour and movements once she's by the river or in the fields? That means they might have followed her before the day in question. So, multiple chances to be witnessed, captured on camera, for NB to say to her partner 'Ive seen the same guy following me twice this week'.

Then there are the variables. How would the perp truly know how the dog would react or behave? A frightened animal. How could they be sure that this isn't the one day NB is unmuted on her meeting? How could the perp minimise the risk of being seen committing the crime by random walkers? Not just committing the crime, but also running down to the bench with the phone.

Then, speaking of the phone, if this was planned so carefully, why leave the phone on the bench? Why not drop it by the water's edge or on the bank? Why not leave a boot floating in the water, or a print in the mud on the bank? So to minimise all suspicion.

There is too much risk of failure IMO. It's far more plausible that it was an accidental fall, or that NB walked out via the broken CCTV route.

All MOO of course

But that is precisely why we are at this stage.

A completely extraordinary series of events leads to a completely extraordinary outcome.

There's a reason this case is has gathered so much interest and so far hasnt been solved yet.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

Yes, you're correct. My RN training qualifies me to agree with you

I actually meant to say, and was trying to say, badly, that the combination of the water temp + depth of water + heavy clothing with water filled wellies would result in drowning in all probablity within 2 minutes, actually probably much quicker. I was trrying to speak to cumalitive effect. Sorrry for any misunderstanding.

I think the thing most likely to have caused her to death is cold water shock and panic, disorientation, causing her to inhale enough water to drown. If she managed to keep her head out of the water for the 3 mins or so it takes for breathing to calm down, I think she could have survived.

Down coats float and the heaviest thing would be her jeans - her boots were elasticated and she had thick socks so it’s not like wearing big wellies.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

As someone who lives in the area and has fished there I can honestly say that this area of river isn’t dangerous. The river gets larger and much deeper miles down further towards the coast past the weir.
At the bench it’s 3ft deep at 9.30am this time of year without much of a current.

To be honest the banks really aren’t that steep there and there are actually some very small steps in that exact place going down the bank.
It would not be too difficult for a physically able person to climb out.

The search and rescue boats actually had trouble navigating that part of the river as it’s too shallow for a motor.
They had members of the team walking alongside the dinghies and they were up to their knees in the water.

If she turns up further towards the coast or out at sea I suspect she walked or ran much further down river.

This is very helpful. I’ve seen the steps. I also noticed there are trees to the left and right growing right down into the water. Even if her clothes were too heavy to pull herself out she could have held on to them to shout for help.

I agree it’s possible she’d have gone into the river further down.