Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 2023 #18

[ex-stat]

He was probably having a break.

I would hope that they would use a reconstruction, modelling, or an object if they really thought they had to test it in real life. Obviously I don't mean a literal reconstruction.
That area is probably still monitored by locals or others who tend to go to the press and online so I would imagine that they are a bit limited with regard to some of the things that they could potentially do if they did indeed want to do anything there.

 

[Twistinginthewind]

How bizarre that a further search is taking place so long after Nicola’s body was found. Any thoughts on why?

It's hard to say, but they could be doing some experiments to "proveout" any data and/or modelling assumptions they may have made on the flow of water downriver and over the weir to the location where her body was found so many weeks later.

And/or they could be checking for any underwater features that could potentially snag someone and hold on to them until there was a significant change in the water levels, that could cause a delay in a body coming ashore.

Even though it was awhile ago when they found her body downstream, some rivers don't really change that much over a given season or over time in terms of flow and water levels, so maybe any modelling data (if they have it) can still be applicable and they are checking its accuracy at a few points, e.g., is it really X ft deep at Station X with a flow of X cubic feet per second, and is that deep enough and moving with enough velocity to carry a body over the weir at all times of day, or just in the afternoon or never or what have you.

For the most part, I think LE maybe trying to sort out further how her body could have gotten so far downstream, over the weir, and then ashore in the reeds without them ever finding her in the water searching from that location near the bench where they think she went into the river and moving out & downriver from there, if that makes sense.

I'm sure they are factoring in decomposition and temperature and currents that morning and how that would affect the way a body is transported in a moving river.

I hope they are successful in whatever they are doing if it will offer some closure on what happened to Nicola.

JMO and speculation, of course

 

[Twistinginthewind]

"If Lancashire Police had told reporters at the start that there were welfare concerns about Mrs Bulley, her disappearance might have been reported differently and details of her personal problems might have never come out.""

What? As if!

I have always had an incredibly bad feeling about this case. The cause of death has not yet been established.
I think it will be a relief once it is established as that will end any doubt. Maybe it is as straightforward as they are making out - it very well could be.

RBBM. Same here, @ex-stat
I have always felt there was more than meets the eye with this case and/or it's just inexplicably some sort of perfect storm of calamities that came together out of the blue on that nice morning at that nice spot where Nicola had walked her nice dog before many nice times. jmo

 

[ex-stat]

To me it is several (little) things that just do not sit right with me at all.

I know that I am very most likely completely wrong. I know the evidence is highly stacked towards suicide or accidental.

But I have never thought that this was anything other than a homicide.

It is confounding because I pretty much know I am wrong, yet I cannot stop thinking this and I have never thought otherwise. I would actually bet that I am wrong - but I just cannot shake it.

 

[pineapple23]

On the other hand my gut feeling has always leant towards accident. Not sure I can trust my gut though. I've been spectacularly wrong in the past. It's a good job our justice system requires more than gut feelings.

 

[Nikynoo]

This is from Lancashire post YT Channel.
Police divers return to the River Wyre St Michaels on the 4th April.

Interesting to see the different depths in more or less the same area. Thanks for posting!

 

[Nikynoo]

How bizarre that a further search is taking place so long after Nicola’s body was found. Any thoughts on why?

I don’t think they’re are ‘searching’, rather they are getting a hypothesis together about river flow rate and direction.

 

[ex-stat]

I am concerned that it will be an open verdict. I feel for the sake of family and friends it would be better not to be, but I would never want to assume how other people feel so it is possible that they may not feel that way. It is just so sad. RIP Nicola. .

 

[ex-stat]

I think people are generally more cognisant of the issues:

- women don't typically tend to use rivers
- there was an 8:57am text to a friend to arrange a meet-up
- the Teams call was left on and not disconnected; it was still connected to the call
- the view of the bench from the back
- that her route had extensively been posted on social media along with pictures and it was a highly repetitive route
- Willow, the dog that was absolutely adored, was running free
- the harness was on the floor between the bench and the river

This is not to say whether it was sadly a suicide (as of course there are a number of factors pointing that way), an accident (factors pointing in that direction) or neither of those things. We will not know until the outcome of the inquest with respect to cause of death and even then we may not know (for example if the inquest results in an open verdict). I know that they are getting in a pathologist from the home office, and I would imagine that they (all concerned) are going to be extremely thorough.

An inquest itself is not indicative of doubt over the cause of death - they have to hold one in some circumstances. However, Nicola's cause of death at present is either unestablished or unreleased. Honestly, I actually think it is probably likely to result in an open verdict unless there was outside involvement (and even then it could result in an open verdict).

I just feel so sad that this happened. With regard to that, it does not really matter if it was suicide, an accident or unlawful killing. They are all sad. RIP.

 

[Seattle1]

I just feel so sad that this happened. With regard to that, it does not really matter if it was suicide, an accident or unlawful killing. They are all sad. RIP.

^^rsbm

I agree wholeheartedly. Two children still lost their mum, a partner his mate, and family and friends lost a loved one.

In a time when the world is so reliant on technology and mobility, I also think we have to remind ourselves to take a breath and truly be cognizant of our surroundings -- especially during routine tasks -- regardless of the hour.

It's been almost two years since I personally gave up wearing earbuds when walking or running and instead listen to my surroundings, my body, and my respiration, question why I'm breathing so hard, and learn how to force myself to slow down. It took an effort to think about my safety and cease distracting myself. I found the effort improved my mental outlook along the way.

Be safe, be kind. xx

 

[WAWAW]

It's reassuring that they seem to be doing a thorough investigation.
I keep getting drawn back to this sad case as no scenario makes sense to me. I believe 5 possibilities exist and all have gaping holes in them.
1 Accident - Pretty odd this can happen when familiar with the risk, how can you drown in 2 foot of water, why body wasn't found that day, why was Willow dry, why did people finding the dog and phone not check the water 2 Suicide - Was she suicidal, do people take their kids to school and dog for a walk before doing this and do people who do this walk into a cold River and keep themselves under water 3 Altercation leading to manslaughter- This still remains my least unlikely, but how did they dispose of the body, where did they keep it for 23 days and how and why return it to the river 4 Abducted- Why did no one see this or it get picked up, where was she kept, how was Willow restrained, how and why return the body to the river 5 Killed the night before- Kids would know mum hadn't taken them to school, who wrote emails, school cameras would pick this up, Alibis wouldn't check out.
Like I said all seem very unlikely so good luck in working this out.
As an aside I'm surprised at the silence from people linked to this case. This was so high profile and people could make decent money from their stories and to date no ex partners coming forward, no photos from the funeral, no tales from colleagues, no gossip from friends re the January visit, nothing from those finding Willow or who saw her that day, nothing regarding how the family are holding up. This is either incredibly loyalty from friends or they've been told not to say anything and I'm impressed at how they seem to have done this.
If anyone has a 6th theory on what my happened I'd be interested in hearing it.
RIP

 

[ex-stat]

There is an approx 23 minute gap between when Nicola was last seen and when her mobile phone was discovered, but that does not really close that time gap (IMO) especially if something nefarious happened. I don't believe she left the area but that is just my thoughts on that.

People do carry on with normal things before they commit suicide but as to the last part I would say 'it depends'.

I am glad if there were no photographs from the funeral in the public gaze as I believe that should be a private affair.

I just want to reiterate that I think it's desperately sad whatever happened. RIP.

 

[WAWAW]

There is an approx 23 minute gap between when Nicola was last seen and when her mobile phone was discovered, but that does not really close that time gap (IMO) especially if something nefarious happened. I don't believe she left the area but that is just my thoughts on that.

People do carry on with normal things before they commit suicide but as to the last part I would say 'it depends'.

I am glad if there were no photographs from the funeral in the public gaze as I believe that should be a private affair.

I just want to reiterate that I think it's desperately sad whatever happened. RIP.

The 23 minute gap becomes 13 if we accept she placed the phone on the bench at 9.20 and it was found at 9.33.An accident seems very unlikely as the people finding the phone would see or hear someone and the dog most likely be wet. Likewise if she took her life at that spot. I can see it happening away from there but I can't work out how Willow was restrained and didn't follow her into the water.
All very odd, for the sake of the family I hope they can establish it was a tragic accident

 

[Megnut]

Dumb question: is there an area there where her dog might've been in distress in the water? She was zooming, dog was off leash perhaps. She goes in the water to rescue the dog, is successful but then struggles herself downstream? Dog dries off before he's found.

Maybe?

JMO

 

[WAWAW]

Dumb question: is there an area there where her dog might've been in distress in the water? She was zooming, dog was off leash perhaps. She goes in the water to rescue the dog, is successful but then struggles herself downstream? Dog dries off before he's found.

Maybe?

JMO

By all accounts the water was still, certainly the dog was dry and found only 13 minutes after the phone arrived at the bench. The dog (Willow) has always felt important to me in this

 

[ex-stat]

We just know that the phone was in the area (of the bench) at the time, nothing further unfortunately as far as I know. The reason I don't think the phone being discovered closes the time gap is because something could have happened away from that area (including walking off). I agree that Willow is important!

 

[NoSpoonFeeding]

Pretty odd this can happen when familiar with the risk, how can you drown in 2 foot of water, why body wasn't found that day, why was Willow dry, why did people finding the dog and phone not check the water

My opinion about the dog is that it possibly wouldn't leap from the high steep bank into the water. The photos of the dog in the water show a shallow walk-in area. I don't think the dog's behavior goes to proving anything.

On March 2 you asked this same question and I quoted your post and answered with the below links. Do you not accept the scientific fact that bodies are immediately depleted of oxygen and immediately sink in a drowning? No one would have seen her body, even if they were there within minutes.

"It should also be remembered that, based on the laws of physics, drowning victims do not go part way down and stop once they lose positive buoyancy. They go all the way to the bottom."
https://journalofsar.com/wp-content...red-For-a-Drowning-Victim-to-Reach-Bottom.pdf

I have also posted information about cold water shock, which in my opinion, is what led to her drowning, whether she entered the water on purpose or by accident.

"Sudden immersion into cold water can cause immediate, involuntary gasping; hyperventilation; panic; and vertigo—all of which can result in water inhalation and drowning."
When the body is immersed in cold water, your core temperature immediately drops prompting a number of physiological responses. These responses rapidly incapacitate you, which can result in fatalities.

Petition Calls for Cold Water Shock Warnings After Teen’s Drowning in the Chehalis River - The Daily Chronicle

Following the death of Zach Hines-Rager, who jumped from a railroad trestle bridge into the Chehalis River last week and reportedly drowned after struggling from cold water shock, people are urging …

www.chronline.com

As for the water depth, there are videos proving the "two feet of water" is not true. The still photo and the video are from the river, at the bank where the bench is.

Nicola Bulley search update as police release new photo of potential witness

Nicola Bulley has been missing for over six days

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

 

[WAWAW]

My opinion about the dog is that it possibly wouldn't leap from the high steep bank into the water. The photos of the dog in the water show a shallow walk-in area. I don't think the dog's behavior goes to proving anything.

On March 2 you asked this same question and I quoted your post and answered with the below links. Do you not accept the scientific fact that bodies are immediately depleted of oxygen and immediately sink in a drowning? No one would have seen her body, even if they were there within minutes.

"It should also be remembered that, based on the laws of physics, drowning victims do not go part way down and stop once they lose positive buoyancy. They go all the way to the bottom."
https://journalofsar.com/wp-content...red-For-a-Drowning-Victim-to-Reach-Bottom.pdf

I have also posted information about cold water shock, which in my opinion, is what led to her drowning, whether she entered the water on purpose or by accident.

"Sudden immersion into cold water can cause immediate, involuntary gasping; hyperventilation; panic; and vertigo—all of which can result in water inhalation and drowning."
When the body is immersed in cold water, your core temperature immediately drops prompting a number of physiological responses. These responses rapidly incapacitate you, which can result in fatalities.

Petition Calls for Cold Water Shock Warnings After Teen’s Drowning in the Chehalis River - The Daily Chronicle

Following the death of Zach Hines-Rager, who jumped from a railroad trestle bridge into the Chehalis River last week and reportedly drowned after struggling from cold water shock, people are urging …

www.chronline.com

As for the water depth, there are videos proving the "two feet of water" is not true. The still photo and the video are from the river, at the bank where the bench is.

Nicola Bulley search update as police release new photo of potential witness

Nicola Bulley has been missing for over six days

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

View attachment 413885

Thanks for the points. A couple of observations/questions in response. I've seen a video in which there are steps down to the water at the bench, I also have seen images where it is less steep so my gut feeling is Willow would have found a way to get in to help her mum. Again the images I've seen show 2 feet depth at the initial point but getting significantly deeper a few feet in. If an accident presumably concussion or the temperature caused the drowning, but wouldn't that be at the initial point as surely she'd have got out if not. If she has died in the bench area then surely the divers find her that day as the body sinks to the bottom, even if not then the experts I've seen seem to think a body can't get over the weir.
I'm not sure we'll ever know the truth, but tome if it was an accident at the bench then it has taken an awful lot of extremely unlikely events for it to have happened there

 

[ex-stat]

Yes - I don't understand this thing about two feet of water in the media. It looks like a deceptively dangerous river. I know PF said that she would have just stood up and maybe he would have, but things are very different when if, for example, you're not a confident swimmer, you're wearing a winter coat and wellington boots, and it is very cold.

I should have specified but I think Willow is important with regard to not being tied up, not whether Willow was wet/dry etc - i.e. the human behaviour associated with Willow not the animal behaviour itself. That, to me, massively stuck out though.

People can struggle instantaneously upon entering water as NoSpoonFeeding has pointed out. Thank you for the useful pictures.

I don't know if anyone has watched any of the SAS simulation TV programmes but they do cold water immersion and a lot of them struggle within seconds.

 

[nao]

Moo...i guess an accidental stumble for Nicola and she went under quick. As far as Willow the dog...unless she has been swimming with her owner previously...it will just be a confusing situation...owner there then owner gone. Willow is a dog, no way is she suddenly going to think i must jump to the rescue....moo