UK - Nurse Lucy Letby Faces 22 Charges - 7 Murder/15 Attempted Murder of Babies #3

[arrogantcat]

So out of 13 deaths, 7 are attended to by one person, I'd say that qualifies as statistically relevant.

Thank you - I sourced similar numbers up thread too l

The statistical relevance is for the prosecution and defence to set out.

Eg Did LL work more shifts than others? Was she routinely assigned the more complex (and therefore moribund) cases? What is the average number of death cases a typical nurse on the ward was involved with? Etc etc.

7 out of 13 (or 15, in my source) certainly sounds like a lot, but if there’s only a team of 4 or 5 nurses, it might not be so clear cut.

 

[MsBetsy]

(Snipped and bold by me. Source.)

So, she’s implicated in 7 out of 15 deaths for the period - roughly half.

Harder to say with the ‘life threatening incidents’ as these don’t necessarily correspond to the charges.

The life threatening incidents don't correspond to the attempted murder charges? In what way?

 

[arrogantcat]

Being socially awkward can explain the bath situation but what about the lies in the medical notes?

Writing them up in a hurry after the fact; failing to hold all the details well enough in your head. Fatigue at the end of a night shift. Muddling up two similar cases or children. Parental recollection error. Parent and nurse both having different understandings of the events. Unclear or ambiguous language. Communication error. Etc etc. Your basic human error.

<modsnip: sub judice> IMO.

 

[Marantz4250b]

Being socially awkward can explain the bath situation but what about the lies in the medical notes?

They haven't proved they were lies. They have suggested they were. Her notes differed from the account of a parent. You cannot simply accept it as a lie simply because the person who's job it is to send her to prison for life says it is.

If this weren't a situation of such seriousness and you were given that one fact and that one fact alone then what would you be more inclined to believe; a contemporaneous note made by someone highly trained and qualified in making such notes or an account of an extremely traumatic event given from memory years after said event? Any investigator will tell you that eye-witness accounts are notoriously dubious pieces of evidence unless supported by other corroborating evidence.

 

[arrogantcat]

The life threatening incidents don't correspond to the attempted murder charges? In what way?

Because some (alleged) attempts at murder may not have triggered an official ‘life threatening incident’ as recorded by the review, eg if an attempt failed completely and a child did not enter a state of significant physical distress.

There will be clear medical parameters for what constitutes a Life Threatening Incident within the trust’s review. These are likely to be different to the factors the prosecution are using to presume an attempted killing.

 

[merrypason]

Thank you - I sourced similar numbers up thread too l

The statistical relevance is for the prosecution and defence to set out.

Eg Did LL work more shifts than others? Was she routinely assigned the more complex (and therefore moribund) cases? What is the average number of death cases a typical nurse on the ward was involved with? Etc etc.

7 out of 13 (or 15, in my source) certainly sounds like a lot, but if there’s only a team of 4 or 5 nurses, it might not be so clear cut.

Statistically relevant to justify her being investigated. I know some posters are questioning why she was 'targeted' and no one else was, for an investigation and why these cases being picked by the prosecutor. They were picked because there were only 13 to begin with, all were investigated, and these 7 were considered deliberate and attended to by one person.

I suppose it is also complicated by the fact she was attending to patients she wasn't supposed to, even when specifically asked not to. So even with 4-5 nurses, if one nurse insists on attending to patients that weren't hers, and they end up dead and the evidence says it was deliberate, I can see why they are fixated on the point that she was always present at the deaths.

 

[Music2022]

Writing them up in a hurry after the fact; failing to hold all the details well enough in your head. Fatigue at the end of a night shift. Muddling up two similar cases or children. Etc etc. Your basic human error.

It certainty doesn’t stand as proof of murder, IMO.

It seems the ratio was 5 nurses to 7 babies so she would’ve had at most 2 babies to look after per shift, I find it hard to believe she would confuse herself with a mother and say the mother raised concern when it was actually her who said that. If she was looking after many more babies per shift then I could understand a slight mix up but these are quite substantial details that are conflicting. Like the mum and doctor who said they never spoke yet she recorded them having a conversation. That’s the problem with her saying doesn’t remember looking at the parents profiles on Facebook. You might forget when you done it but surely you will know you did look at some point. Lying about this just makes you a liar not a murderer of course, but affects how people would believe her version of events on other issues.

 

[FoxyLoxy1]

Letby was late 28s, had a mortgage, lived alone, I think its entirely possible she worked as many hours as she could to pay for her house and living costs. This may have meant she was on shift more often or worked overtime, which may account for her regular presence on the ward.

Regarding the notes, as a teacher I have probably recorded a concern as a parental concern, for example, I raise the concern and the parent agrees, its entirely possible I would have written "A's mum is concerned that..."
Regarding confidential information, I definitely have some of that around the house
Regarding texting colleagues about students (or patients), yep we do it all the time

I am not convinced with Baby H at all, I think that was due to medical issues.

I am concerned with Drs and colleagues noticing a pattern, its possible I suppose that Letby was over worked, tired, not that great at her job and making mistakes, but either way at this point she should have been removed from patient care.

 

[Kitaro]

Adversity doesn't make people hurt those most vulnerable. Taking pleasure in causing others pain does. The vast majority of people who have endured abuse, grief, illness, disability, etc. don't want to hurt others. That isn't to say there aren't predators who have endured trauma, plenty have. But one doesn't equal the other without there being a quirk in there for liking and taking power and pleasure from hurting people. So maybe she is a surviving twin, but millions of surviving twins around the world aren't accused of preying on their patients.

Very interesting subject matter. There is the personality trait of Alexithymia (issues feeling emotions) - these individuals can be prone to create external stimuli for them to feel and experience extreme emotions. I imagine these are individuals who are either like this naturally or were brought up in emotionally confined situations and so forth. Very different from a psychopathic personality disorder.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

I'm way behind in reading the posts so my apologies if this has already been posted.
A long and chilling article

Doctor interrupted nurse Lucy Letby’s attempt to kill newborn baby, court told

Consultant had started to link Letby to unexplained deaths and rushed to help infant, jury hears

www.theguardian.com

 

[arrogantcat]

Statistically relevant to justify her being investigated. I know some posters are questioning why she was 'targeted' and no one else was, for an investigation and why these cases being picked by the prosecutor. They were picked because there were only 13 to begin with, all were investigated, and these 7 were considered deliberate and attended to by one person.

I suppose it is also complicated by the fact she was attending to patients she wasn't supposed to, even when specifically asked not to. So even with 4-5 nurses, if one nurse insists on attending to patients that weren't hers, and they end up dead and the evidence says it was deliberate, I can see why they are fixated on the point that she was always present at the deaths.

We don’t know if others were also investigated in this process.
We don’t know which, if any, of the other 6 cases could also be considered deliberate, but were not attended by LL.
We don’t know if any of those 6 *were* attended by LL but the prosecution determined there was insufficient evidence in those cases.
We don’t yet know what a normal amount of deaths per nurse is on that ward.
We don’t know her shift ratio in comparison to others.
We don’t know how her caseload was selected.

It’s impossible to know the statistical significance without a lot more information, that we will no doubt hear in due course.

Saying “she’s being charged because of the stats, and the stats are clearly significant because she’s being charged” is just circular reasoning. We don’t know.

 

[MsBetsy]

Because some (alleged) attempts at murder may not have triggered an official ‘life threatening incident’ as recorded by the review, eg if an attempt failed completely and a child did not enter a state of significant physical distress.

There will be clear medical parameters for what constitutes a Life Threatening Incident within the trust’s review. These are likely to be different to the factors the prosecution are using to presume an attempted killing.

True. They didn't have enough evidence to charge for at least one baby. Apparently they do for the others, though, so I assume they are the ones who suffered life threatening incidents, like the severely disabled child.
I'm a little behind so I haven't heard evidence for the rest of the babies. I hope the details will be much clearer once the expert witnesses testify. Imo

 

[kittythehare]

I must have missed that, admittedly, I've been doing other stuff most of the day and skim reading stuff.

I remember thinking that a pic or two of hers looked like a holiday pic. A holiday in Ibiza doesn't really enhance the picture of the loner/anti-social weirdo type that some are trying to paint of her - especially the FB nutters. Indeed, it makes her come over as an entirely normal mid 20's woman.

I've not seen social media on her, except Twitter, last 2 days.
In fact I never heard even a whisper about the case until yesterday, a mate, a fellow closet royalist messaged me. Then I started reading reluctantly and checked if case was heere.
Nothing I read gave me any insight into who she is. Like not a single word.
I too see Ibiza as a healthy choice, it's not healthy actually but I sure could use a week's rave right now.
It's not congruent with the alleged murders though.
Or is it?

Today was like shock after shock.
Some of those babies could be held in the palm of one's hand.
I have no idea who this person is.
The door evidence is pretty damning though.


Imagine sitting in that court as a parent?

 

[Music2022]

They haven't proved they were lies. They have suggested they were. Her notes differed from the account of a parent. You cannot simply accept it as a lie simply because the person who's job it is to send her to prison for life says it is.

If this weren't a situation of such seriousness and you were given that one fact and that one fact alone then what would you be more inclined to believe; a contemporaneous note made by someone highly trained and qualified in making such notes or an account of an extremely traumatic event given from memory years after said event? Any investigator will tell you that eye-witness accounts are notoriously dubious pieces of evidence unless supported by other corroborating evidence.

The mums phone records correspond to her version of events though. With the phone call being made after 9, and also the feeding time was 9, no reason for the mum to bring the milk at 10?

 

[kittythehare]

To me it fits with her being a little socially awkward, as previously reported. But then that’s the problem with circumstantial evidence - it’s entirely open to interpretation!

Where was it reported that she was socially awkward?
I'm not challenging you, I genuinely didn't see it.

 

[merrypason]

We don’t know if others were also investigated in this process.
We don’t know which, if any, of the other 6 cases could also be considered deliberate, but were discarded after they identified LL as the suspect because she did not attend to them.
We don’t know if any of those 6 *were* attended by LL but the prosecution determined there was insufficient evidence in those cases.
We don’t yet know what a normal amount of deaths per nurse is on that ward.
We don’t know her shift ratio in comparison to others.

It’s impossible to know the statistical significance without a lot more information, that we will no doubt hear in due course.

Saying “she’s being charged because of the stats, and the stats are clearly significant because she’s being charged” is just circular reasoning.

She wasn't charged because of stats, that's the point I keep making.

She was suspected by colleagues and investigated by the police because statistically she was a nurse who accounted for half the deaths on a ward.

The stats are the reason she was investigated at all. The stats are the reason her colleagues suspected her.

The prosecution aren't saying the stats are significant. They aren't mentioning % of deaths by LL or % of deaths that were foul play she was present for. They are saying that LL is responsible for 7 deaths/15 attempts, she is the common denominator in these cases.

If this was Ted Bundy and they said - Ted is responsible for 40 deaths, he is the common denominator and presence in these deaths. Would anyone be talking statistics of how many people he didn't kill or how it's not fair to say he's the common presence because these cases were selected by the prosecutor?

Them saying stats is significant for LL would be something like, "We believe LL is responsible for all these deaths in the ward because statistically she had the most contact with them".

 

[Kitaro]

I've not seen social media on her, except Twitter, last 2 days.
In fact I never heard even a whisper about the case until yesterday, a mate, a fellow closet royalist messaged me. Then I started reading reluctantly and checked if case was heere.
Nothing I read gave me any insight into who she is. Like not a single word.
I too see Ibiza as a healthy choice, it's not healthy actually but I sure could use a week's rave right now.
It's not congruent with the alleged murders though.
Or is it?

Today was like shock after shock.
Some of those babies could be held in the palm of one's hand.
I have no idea who this person is.
The door evidence is pretty damning though.


Imagine sitting in that court as a parent?

We live in Chester, so we have known about the case since she was initially arrested as obviously it was big local news. Over the years we have heard the odd "what is happening with that nurse", but over the passage of time, I think there was an assumption with a lot of people here that they didn't have anything on her.

Agree with the comments about insight into LL's life; very little is known about her and what is, is very unremarkable.

 

[bbsaz]

According to BLISS, 11% of neonatal care patients are from multiples births (ie twins, triplets). So 89% of neonatal care patients are single births.

Yet out of the 17 cases she is implicated in, 8 are from multiple births.

Going by BLISS stats, you would expect only 2 of the 17 cases to be from multiples, not 8. That's over 50%

Surely there's something in that

 

[kittythehare]

We live in Chester, so we have known about the case since she was initially arrested as obviously it was big local news. Over the years we have heard the odd "what is happening with that nurse", but over the passage of time, I think there was an assumption with a lot of people here that they didn't have anything on her.

Agree with the comments about insight into LL's life; very little is known about her and what is, is very unremarkable.

Thanks, Kitaro.
I don't even have aa single memory of hearing about it at the time.
Takes my breath away when I consider the parents and how they are processing it or in 2015/16
Their grief must be off the Richter scale.
Now they must sit for another 6 months with no guarantee of a prosecution at the end.
Or that a prosecution would even bring any catharsis at all..

This is mind shattering for a mere observer.


Who will heal them?

 

[arrogantcat]

Yet out of the 17 cases she is implicated in, 8 are from multiple births.

Going by BLISS stats, you would expect only 2 of the 17 cases to be from multiples, not 8. That's over 50%

Surely there's something in that

This is definitely interesting! Although I suppose outcomes for multiples are usually worse too, because they tend to have lower birth rates etc. Are there any stats on death rates for both groups?