WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #6

[yosande]

After having lived in the PNW for the past 24 years and after hiking, spending time on & camping on many, many of the beaches in the area (both the Olympic Peninsula beaches & the Puget Sound beaches), I have to say this:

The tides do not rush in like a tsunami & sweep everything & everyone away in their path - especially the tides of the Sound, which come in more slowly than the tides out on the Olympic Coast. They come in over the course of several hours & it's apparent when they're coming in - even to someone who might not know what an incoming tide looks like. The water gradually rises.

IMO, Shantina was well aware of the tides, and how they behaved, since it seems that she was involved in outdoor activities as well as being a Cub Scout leader.

It's not like she was a completely inexperienced city girl from the Midwest who had never been to the ocean & had no idea of tides, currents, and the like. After all, it's a well known fact that she grew up in the Puget Sound area - therefore, IMO, she would have knowledge of the highs & lows of the tides.

I don't believe for a minute that she wasn't aware of the tideline when she parked the van on that beach.

:gold_crown:

 

[Calliope]

There was another training class (camp) that started on Friday night at 4 pm and was scheduled to end at 6 pm on Sat. That is not the one he apparently had linked on his website.

Does anyone have the link handy where it is said he was expecting training to get out at 6:30?

The overnight camp is on that calendar as well. He says in an interview he was in training for the 'outdoor experience', the one that ended at 4.

A link to his timeline is on this post.

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - WA WA-Shantina Smiley, 29, Msg & Azriel Carver, 8, found deceased, #6

 

[Calliope]

New post from RS on fb:

I guess that means LE has all it's going to get from that area. I wondered if the change in theory about how the items came to be on shore may have led them to go back and look again.

 

[Calliope]

Am I understanding this correctly'

one key was found, which belonged to the van, on the dash of the van?

No other keys were found, just the one single key?

tia

As far as we know. There's only one in the photo, in any case.

 

[Calliope]

It was just a few possibilities to toss around. But this is very true:

Some people who have had a lot of carp in their lives get frightened by too much of a good thing, worrying about when this is going to turn carpy too. They decide to leave before things turn against them.

Whether any apply to SS I have no idea and I believe I made it clear that "Some people" react this way and "maybe" these are reasons. I'm not saying they are or that I even think they are...

I'm not an old hand here, but 'maybes' and theories and questions are posted on every missing persons thread I've read so far.


I agree with you; some people DO feel that way. Heck, I suspect most of us have at some point to some degree. (after all, "waiting for the other shoe to drop" KWIM?)

Extreme stress doesn't necessarily have to come from a bad source; positive change can be as stressful... maybe more so in this case simply because it IS such a radical change; it's obvious she's endured some pretty horrific times in the past. Just stop and think about all she has gone through in the last couple of years. A new relationship, new home, new family, engagement, school (and pulling off a high GPA to boot) while working, becoming a leader in scouts, a new job, soon to be changing jobs and interviews, even the upcoming dismissal of her DUI charge. That's enough to stress anyone out, much less someone who apparently in the past turned to substance abuse to deal with the stressors in her life.

 

[yosande]

Well, If she told Gpa she was in Olympia how long would it take for LE to trace the call...

Good Point! (D*mn you don't miss a trick), she probably didn't say I'm calling from DS's house on 46th.... These missing people would help so much if they left more information on the trail...

If my granddaughter called me at 10 pm, while on a trip to CR to see someone she hadn't seen in several years, and told me that she was lost, had had an accident of "sorts" but didn't elaborate, the first thing out of my mouth would be, "where are you?" Somewhere in Olympia would not be good enough for me. I would want to know exactly where, especially since she isn't calling me from her cellphone, but from a stranger's house.

I mean, I would want his name and address, and I'd probably want to talk to him, not that she would let me. I would want to know if Azriel is alright, and I would want to know specifics on the "accident of sorts" and I'll just bet they did, and do know, and it simply isn't being released.
I'd also want to talk to my grandson to make sure he is ok, since she has been in an accident of sorts. SS is a recovering alcoholic, and they got guardianship of him, and believe me, it is always in the back of your head to watch for signs of relapse. Yeah, they very likely wanted to talk to Az to find out, verify, that mom isn't drinking, and he isn't hurt. The gp in Brinnon are the ones who took guadianship of Azriel 2 1/2 years ago so she could go into rehab. They might still have legal guardianship of him in case she relapsed, or got into another bad relationship. They wouldn't have had to release guradianship even if they allowed her to take him to live with her, as a protective measure. I know some gp who are doing that! That may have been the very reason she called them.

Did she try to call RS first, but couldn't get through b/c his phone was dead? If so, would she have been able to leave a voicemail? tia

I'm beyond certain that LE is holding videos, interview information from witnesses, family members, coworkers, and friends, and even dog handlers who lost the scent or never found one. I've heard both.

Yet they think it was all an accident? just routine, ma'am, just routine, as Jack Webb would say...Idts, moo

 

[Calliope]

Yikes - you're right - he would have been 3 or 4 at the time. I messed up with the math - my bad.

Nevertheless, he would have been too young to provide testimony as to who broke his arm.

But thx for correcting my math!

That's sad; I think if handled correctly, they could have gotten testimony from him as to who hurt him

 

[Calliope]

If my granddaughter called me at 10 pm, while on a trip to CR to see someone she hadn't seen in several years, and told me that she was lost, had had an accident of "sorts" but didn't elaborate, the first thing out of my mouth would be, "where are you?" Somewhere in Olympia would not be good enough for me. I would want to know exactly where, especially since she isn't calling me from her cellphone, but from a stranger's house.

I mean, I would want his name and address, and I'd probably want to talk to him, not that she would let me. I would want to know if Azriel is alright, and I would want to know specifics on the "accident of sorts" and I'll just bet they did, and do know, and it simply isn't being released.
I'd also want to talk to my grandson to make sure he is ok, since she has been in an accident of sorts. SS is a recovering alcoholic, and they got guardianship of him, and believe me, it is always in the back of your head to watch for signs of relapse. Yeah, they very likely wanted to talk to Az to find out, verify, that mom isn't drinking, and he isn't hurt. The gp in Brinnon are the ones who took guadianship of Azriel 2 1/2 years ago so she could go into rehab. They might still have legal guardianship of him in case she relapsed, or got into another bad relationship. They wouldn't have had to release guradianship even if they allowed her to take him to live with her, as a protective measure. I know some gp who are doing that! That may have been the very reason she called them.

Did she try to call RS first, but couldn't get through b/c his phone was dead? If so, would she have been able to leave a voicemail? tia

I'm beyond certain that LE is holding videos, interview information from witnesses, family members, coworkers, and friends, and even dog handlers who lost the scent or never found one. I've heard both.

Yet they think it was all an accident? just routine, ma'am, just routine, as Jack Webb would say...Idts, moo

It's possible the grandparents have a phone that doesn't display caller ID (not many of those around anymore) but unless SS purposely blocked the call, *69 would have dialed it back. Here it used to announce the number too; haven't used it in a loooong time though.

I agree that LE may be holding back information, especially if they're looking at someone they feel is somehow involved.

 

[houndstooth]

I logged in to make a comment about the post that had the link to the GMA interview including some interesting comments themselves. Now I don't even see it!!

Well anyway. I noticed that a relative had commented that even they were not being told anything. Overall, this is a pretty good article, I thought. This was the first time I really took the time to read all the comments. Some tracked exactly what I was thinking about the case, too. It also helped me to focus on what it is about the phone calls that make me have questions. I had forgotton that there were two calls at around 4:15 and two calls around 6:45. The first of which RS didn't answer. He must not have because it came from a payphone. She left a voicemail and so when she called back or he called her back at the phone "he learned" she did not have her cellphone. I got to thinking about the poster who said that there was a discussion about this in the early thread. It does seem very possible that she thought he already HAD her cellphone. Not that she thought he was still HOME at that time and could bring it. She knew he took it.

I, like the posters on there, do not think RS was being honest with investigators about the cellphone. Not that he had anything to do with their fate. But, that there was some underlying ongoing problem that he has not wanted to talk about. There is something "off" in this interview. That seems obvious to me, at least.

 

[SMK]

I logged in to make a comment about the post that had the link to the GMA interview including some interesting comments themselves. Now I don't even see it!!

Well anyway. I noticed that a relative had commented that even they were not being told anything. Overall, this is a pretty good article, I thought. This was the first time I really took the time to read all the comments. Some tracked exactly what I was thinking about the case, too. It also helped me to focus on what it is about the phone calls that make me have questions. I had forgotton that there were two calls at around 4:15 and two calls around 6:45. The first of which RS didn't answer. He must not have because it came from a payphone. She left a voicemail and so when she called back or he called her back at the phone "he learned" she did not have her cellphone. I got to thinking about the poster who said that there was a discussion about this in the early thread. It does seem very possible that she thought he already HAD her cellphone. Not that she thought he was still HOME at that time and could bring it. She knew he took it.

I, like the posters on there, do not think RS was being honest with investigators about the cellphone. Not that he had anything to do with their fate. But, that there was some underlying ongoing problem that he has not wanted to talk about. There is something "off" in this interview. That seems obvious to me, at least.

I agree. It is not accusing RS of causing the demise of SS and Az, to point out that his story is obviously not adding up.
I think logic tells you, that he was not supposed to come on the trip, that he had taken her cellphone, that she knew this, and that it made her extremely uneasy (lovers will often take the cell to see if the other has been honest, who they have been calling, texting, receiving voicemails from).
He was following her, and she did not want to be confronted about the phone.
That the Examiner piece says RS said she called from the Handy Pantry at that time, when the camera shows no move toward the payphone, when it is the only Handy Pantry in the entire state of Washington, makes one deduct that he had spotted her there.
Natural enough, that he would not want it known that he was tailing, and she was avoiding.
I believe the grandparents tried to return a call to Shantina after she had called them from the Williams', even knowing she did not have the cell, they wanted to leave a message.
They probably got RS instead. For how would he have had the Grandparent's number, his own cell was dead?
These things are just so clear, so obvious, if one looks at it logically, and it is all taken from his own words. And all is out in the public domain. There is no need to sleuth this, it is there, on record. And he removed his timeline, why? If it was to be a help, why get rid of it? None of this says he caused the fate of Az or SS. But one needs to be honest, so that other clues can come to light. NOT an accusation of him, in my book.

 

[RubyRed]

I agree. It is not accusing RS of causing the demise of SS and Az, to point out that his story is obviously not adding up.
I think logic tells you, that he was not supposed to come on the trip, that he had taken her cellphone, that she knew this, and that it made her extremely uneasy (lovers will often take the cell to see if the other has been honest, who they have been calling, texting, receiving voicemails from).
He was following her, and she did not want to be confronted about the phone.
That the Examiner piece says RS said she called from the Handy Pantry at that time, when the camera shows no move toward the payphone, when it is the only Handy Pantry in the entire state of Washington, makes one deduct that he had spotted her there.
Natural enough, that he would not want it known that he was tailing, and she was avoiding.
I believe the grandparents tried to return a call to Shantina after she had called them from the Williams', even knowing she did not have the cell, they wanted to leave a message.
They probably got RS instead. For how would he have had the Grandparent's number, his own cell was dead?
These things are just so clear, so obvious, if one looks at it logically, and it is all taken from his own words. And all is out in the public domain. There is no need to sleuth this, it is there, on record. And he removed his timeline, why? If it was to be a help, why get rid of it? None of this says he caused the fate of Az or SS. But one needs to be honest, so that other clues can come to light. NOT an accusation of him, in my book.

bbm

Where is the proof he was not to go on the trip?

There is no way to know if Shantina was uneasy about the cell nor if he had taken it to spy on her.

Maybe he knew the number from memory or called 411.

 

[Jules71]

Does anyone have a link handy that shows Shantina called RS twice around 6:45? And also where it says she called him from the Handy Pantry?

 

[Calliope]

bbm

Where is the proof he was not to go on the trip?

There is no way to know if Shantina was uneasy about the cell nor if he had taken it to spy on her.

Maybe he knew the number from memory or called 411.

In this case, there's very little "proof" of anything beyond an abandoned van, a dead child, his missing mother and the two of them on random surveillance videos here and there around town.

Houndstooth listed some reasons why there may be a question about this, and the mod seemed to be ok with her post:

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - WA WA-Shantina Smiley, 29, Msg & Azriel Carver, 8, found deceased, #6

 

[SMK]

bbm

Where is the proof he was not to go on the trip?

There is no way to know if Shantina was uneasy about the cell nor if he had taken it to spy on her.

Maybe he knew the number from memory or called 411.

Yes, all true. Yet logical deduction caused me to surmise these things. If they are wrong, they are wrong. They are not facts, just deductions. What is the harm in putting them out there, if it can clarify things a bit further? At least in my view.... If RS called 411, it will be there, on record. These things help him, and I am sure if I am wrong, it will be proven so, easily.

 

[SMK]

Does anyone have a link handy that shows Shantina called RS twice around 6:45? And also where it says she called him from the Handy Pantry?

It was in this Examiner piece, in an interview conducted by phone. If the journalist is wrong, she is wrong, but how do we find that out?

6:47 p.m. - Simmons said Smiley stopped at a Handy Pantry and called him from a pay phone.

http://www.examiner.com/x-34328-Seattle-Headlines-Examiner~y2010m3d14-Olympia--Desperate-search-for-mother-and-8year-old-son-fiance-believes-could-be-sinister

 

[RubyRed]

In this case, there's very little "proof" of anything beyond an abandoned van, a dead child, his missing mother and the two of them on random surveillance videos here and there around town.

Houndstooth listed some reasons why there may be a question about this, and the mod seemed to be ok with her post:

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - WA WA-Shantina Smiley, 29, Msg & Azriel Carver, 8, found deceased, #6

With all due respect, I have my own opinion. Is it being implied because a mod is okay with it, then that should be my opinion as well.

 

[SMK]

I agree. It is not accusing RS of causing the demise of SS and Az, to point out that his story is obviously not adding up.
I think logic tells you, that he was not supposed to come on the trip, that he had taken her cellphone, that she knew this, and that it made her extremely uneasy (lovers will often take the cell to see if the other has been honest, who they have been calling, texting, receiving voicemails from).
He was following her, and she did not want to be confronted about the phone.
That the Examiner piece says RS said she called from the Handy Pantry at that time, when the camera shows no move toward the payphone, when it is the only Handy Pantry in the entire state of Washington, makes one deduct that he had spotted her there.
Natural enough, that he would not want it known that he was tailing, and she was avoiding.
I believe the grandparents tried to return a call to Shantina after she had called them from the Williams', even knowing she did not have the cell, they wanted to leave a message.
They probably got RS instead. For how would he have had the Grandparent's number, his own cell was dead?
These things are just so clear, so obvious, if one looks at it logically, and it is all taken from his own words. And all is out in the public domain. There is no need to sleuth this, it is there, on record. And he removed his timeline, why? If it was to be a help, why get rid of it? None of this says he caused the fate of Az or SS. But one needs to be honest, so that other clues can come to light. NOT an accusation of him, in my book.

Just an addendum on my own postings, above: These are only surmisings, deductions, those things one comes up with when "listening with the psychologist's third ear", as the saying goes. It does not mean they are fact, nor that the third ear always hears correctly. But that they MAY be worth thinking about. Yes, it all could be dead wrong, true. And I am NOT suggesting RS caused the horrible ending, by no means....

 

[elf69]

bbm

Where is the proof he was not to go on the trip?

There is no way to know if Shantina was uneasy about the cell nor if he had taken it to spy on her.

Maybe he knew the number from memory or called 411.

There was a comment on her step-mother's facebook that has since been deleted. She had said if your not coming then I will go shopping and SS replied that her and Azriel would indeed be there between 6 and 7. No mention of RS. BTW her step-mother did go shopping and posted about that at 9:30ish that evening that SS was "suppose" to be there. She had also mentioned in a post around the 4th that her husband was excited to see SS and Azriel -- again no mention of RS. In a news interview her sister stated that SS was to spend the night at her house that evening -- again no mention of RS. So, where exactly were SS and Azriel planning on going? I still do not believe that RS was ever suppose to be on this trip. BTW -- I have screen shots of all those posts. I believe that SS made these "plans" and drove around leaving bread crumbs to cover for the fact that she was leaving RS. I believe he found out and raced down there to maybe convince her otherwise. I am NOT saying he had anything to do with her disappearance or Azriel's passing. I believe she met someone else and took off and am leaning towards a boat. And, I would also like to believe that she did not intentionally kill her own child. Just my opinions. And, on another note, I have spent some time perusing all her friends' wall posts on her FB page -- going back further that the night of her disappearance and found it quite odd that she had no interaction with her friends who have stated how good of a friend she was to them. I didn't see any reconnecting with anybody from her past other than adding them as friends. Not sure if that means anything or not. :waitasec:

 

[BeanE]

In this case, there's very little "proof" of anything beyond an abandoned van, a dead child, his missing mother and the two of them on random surveillance videos here and there around town.

Houndstooth listed some reasons why there may be a question about this, and the mod seemed to be ok with her post:

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - WA WA-Shantina Smiley, 29, Msg & Azriel Carver, 8, found deceased, #6

With all due respect, I have my own opinion. Is it being implied because a mod is okay with it, then that should be my opinion as well.

Always be sure to look back at the whole series of posts in the stream.

Evidence? I haven't seen a single piece of evidence that he was not invited or intended to go. All evidence I've seen points to him having been invited and intended to go.

I've seen speculation that perhaps he wasn't invited or intended to go.

We really need to be careful to distinguish between the two, because people rely on Websleuths for credible, well sourced, information about the cases we sleuth. It's what sets us above the rest. And if we refer to our speculation as if it's fact, that's how rumors grow legs, and that's never a good thing.

I am not at all fine with anyone presenting rumor, speculation, or fabrication as fact. Ever.

 

[SMK]

In this case, there's very little "proof" of anything beyond an abandoned van, a dead child, his missing mother and the two of them on random surveillance videos here and there around town.

Houndstooth listed some reasons why there may be a question about this, and the mod seemed to be ok with her post:

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - WA WA-Shantina Smiley, 29, Msg & Azriel Carver, 8, found deceased, #6

Right, I see what you are saying. You are not suggesting what opinion anyone should hold, you are trying to show what is OK to be discussed on forum. I see it, and its a good point, thanks.:innocent: And I agree with Bean, it would be arrogant and counter-productive of me or anyone to call mere speculation "fact". That said, I will say once more, I have admitted I often go by "gut hunch", which can really hit the mark, or really, really MISS the mark, big time.........