WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #7

[Calliope]

Right, this one video has brought alot sharply into focus...I am glad Jules found it, as I was going crazy, thinking I imagined the bit about the van there by 11 pm---yes, and now we know there was a man's shoe...much to ponder...:waitasec:

One that is tied and doesn't appear to have the dirt/sand that the other items have on them.

 

[Calliope]

If someone noticed the van there at 11 pm it is too bad they didn't let the owner of the home know. As he said in 911 call, he would have just pulled them out and scolded them for driving down there.

If LE is making that statement based upon someone claiming to have seen headlights or hearing noises, I don't think they can assume it was Shantina. But it seems strange that in such a private place, and considering how protective they apparently are of their beach, no one bothered to see who or what was going down their private road at that time of night.

 

[SMK]

Especially considering how upset they were to find the van there the next morning?

I wonder what information led them to believe she was there at 11pm. Did someone actually see the van?

Right. Do they have firm evidence, or did someone hear an engine, see something, and in retrospect, surmise that it was Shantina? Too bad Lt. Mealy does not say exactly HOW they have good reason to believe the van was there at 11. And if I had a home on a private beach, and saw a van down there at 11 pm, I would call 9-11, as it might be a drug deal going down, or criminals staking out houses, or someone poaching, or dumping waste into the waters. Only 12 hours later, the call is made? To me, bizarre....

 

[RubyRed]

IIRC another neighbor, told another neighbor, that told him in the morning. Maybe they didn't want to disturb him because it was late. So maybe one of the other neighbor's saw something and that is where the 11 pm came from. Anyway it happened it is all unfortunate. I am sure they feel terrible.

 

[Jules71]

After reviewing a lot of video today, I find it very weird she was at HP at 19:48 and the woman attendant in the black dress and blue shirt was showing her a map - and her receipt shows 7:55. Then 7 mins later at 8:02 she is at Safeway and the male attendant with the orange vest is showing her a map again. The distance between these two locations is 1.8 - 2.0 miles and would take 4-6 mins to drive there. So she drove straight from HP to Safeway, went inside and got directions again.

So then maybe the attendant at Safeway says "go out here and take a right" so she does - but she goes out of the parking lot the other way. My red arrow would show how she could have interpreted "go out here and turn right" - this would lead her straight to Martin Way Diner.



If she went out and turned right (as indicated by my blue arrow) she would have gone directly to I-5.

 

[slowpoke]

Thinking more about the needing gasoline possibility (after leaving the DW house), I don't feel she would have turned the opposite direction just to look for gas.

It would make more sense to follow the directions given to her by DW and hope to see a station along the way, if getting onto the hwy just then was her intention.

 

[Calliope]

Thinking more about the needing gasoline possibility (after leaving the DW house), I don't feel she would have turned the opposite direction just to look for gas.

It would make more sense to follow the directions given to her by DW and hope to see a station along the way, if getting onto the hwy just then was her intention.

I don't think it was.

 

[SMK]

After reviewing a lot of video today, I find it very weird she was at HP at 19:48 and the woman attendant in the black dress and blue shirt was showing her a map - and her receipt shows 7:55. Then 7 mins later at 8:02 she is at Safeway and the male attendant with the orange vest is showing her a map again. The distance between these two locations is 1.8 - 2.0 miles and would take 4-6 mins to drive there. So she drove straight from HP to Safeway, went inside and got directions again.

So then maybe the attendant at Safeway says "go out here and take a right" so she does - but she goes out of the parking lot the other way. My red arrow would show how she could have interpreted "go out here and turn right" - this would lead her straight to Martin Way Diner.

View attachment 8934

If she went out and turned right (as indicated by my blue arrow) she would have gone directly to I-5.

View attachment 8935

BOLDED/UNDERLINED BY SMK: Yes, this is suspicious. Unless she was really not looking for the interstate, but looking for a back road, or some other back way place, and was embarassed to say it in front of the child, or to stare so long at a map, so had to go elsewhere to look some more? I would have simply bought my own map. But as regards past speculation that she wanted to be seen looking for directions, IMO, she would not go from one to the other place so quickly if that were the case. Just more grist for the mill: I have been lost while driving in the past, stopped at a gas station, gotten directions, and then 3 minutes later stopped and asked someone else, as I was so nervous, I forgot what the first person said.....:waitasec:

 

[Jules71]

I have been lost while driving in the past, stopped at a gas station, gotten directions, and then 3 minutes later stopped and asked someone else, as I was so nervous, I forgot what the first person said.....:waitasec:

Ha ha! :laugh: That actually made me laugh out loud. :rolling: I'm sure it's happened to me before too - but I guess I just liked reading that - it helped break my intense concentration, which I needed to do. Time for dinner.

 

[SMK]

Ha ha! :laugh: That actually made me laugh out loud. :rolling: I'm sure it's happened to me before too - but I guess I just liked reading that - it helped break my intense concentration, which I needed to do. Time for dinner.

Glad you liked it!!:dance:

 

['Ailina]

Unless she was really not looking for the interstate, but looking for a back road, or some other back way place, and was embarassed to say it in front of the child...

I think she was looking for a back road where she could park/drink/sleep. That's even more motivation for her to delay going to her stepfather's home. Probably by that time, she was well agitated -- not only because she was in unfamiliar territory, but also because of her alcoholic relapse the week before and from whatever fall-out ensued as a result of that.

I've never been an alcoholic or recovered from any kind of addiction (with the exception of cigarettes), but I've read enough to know relapse is a serious, serious event for recovering alcoholics. The alcohol is THE urgent thing, and everything else revolves around that. She'd probably been under a GREAT amount of stress all week long. I can see her taking the impromptu trip to see her stepfather as a means of escape/change of scenery/anything to disrupt the pain of the norm. I do this, too, when I'm under great stress.

 

[SMK]

I think she was looking for a back road where she could park/drink/sleep. That's even more motivation for her to delay going to her stepfather's home. Probably by that time, she was well agitated -- not only because she was in unfamiliar territory, but also because of her alcoholic relapse the week before and from whatever fall-out ensued as a result of that.

I've never been an alcoholic or recovered from any kind of addiction (with the exception of cigarettes), but I've read enough to know relapse is a serious, serious event for recovering alcoholics. The alcohol is THE urgent thing, and everything else revolves around that. She'd probably been under a GREAT amount of stress all week long. I can see her taking the impromptu trip to see her stepfather as a means of escape/change of scenery/anything to disrupt the pain of the norm. I do this, too, when I'm under great stress.

Yes, and I imagine that when she stopped at the Williams home to phone her grandparents, she asked for directions to the Interstate just as a formality, because its obvious she did not want to get out on the main highway....

 

['Ailina]

Yes, and I imagine that when she stopped at the Williams home to phone her grandparents, she asked for directions to the Interstate just as a formality, because its obvious she did not want to get out on the main highway....

Absolutely. I've asked things like this as a formality before, too.

I wonder if her primary reason for going through the embarrassment and trouble of disturbing strangers in their home at a late hour and using their phone was to buy herself more time before her ETA?

 

[Alaska4959]

When reviewing the events that evening, and trying to determine how she ended up down that road to the beach off Zangle - what are the possibilities?

1. She followed someone there
2. She was evading someone and in trying to get away she ended up there
3. She was meeting someone 'there' and finally found the place (remember she did not have her phone, so if she planned to meet someone and was planning on getting turn by turn directions on the phone with the person, she couldn't. It may have taken her all this time to find the place they planned to meet)
4. She was so totally disoriented (due to stress, alcohol, brain event, etc.) that she turned the wrong way on Boston Harbor Rd NE from the Williams house (just 0.2 miles back).

Which is most likely - why? Which is least likely - why?

"Mealy said surveillence video also recorded Smiley and her son on the northwest side of Olympia peering into the windows of the Gull Harbor Market at 9:55 p.m., which was closed. "


Mealy said surveillence video also recorded Smiley and her son on the northwest side of Olympia peering into the windows of the Gull Harbor Market at 9:55 p.m., which was closed. "
http://abcnews.go.com/US/shantina-smileys-disappearance-stumps-cops/story?id=10116896&page=2

Yes, she must have been leaning over as she drove, perhaps squinting toward the store on the video clip, for him to say that.

-----

Been thinking about this for a bit. I know what I am thinking will probably seem 'out-there a mile', but of all the possible scenerios running through my head, I keep coming back to this one:

What if Shantina was planning to meet someone in Olympia and had planned to meet them at GHM? Maybe the aimless driving and mapquests were to kill time. Maybe she bought the wine for the person she was meeting. (I am slowly accepting that Shantina may in fact have been drinking again but am still holding out for concrete proof (BAC, toxicology, etc) Maybe she did not know what time GHM closed so when she got there the first time and found the store closed and the payphone out of order she drove elsewhere to call that person. Maybe she stopped somewhere without a camera to make the call. If she succeeded in reaching this person they may have arranged to meet at the beach. Maybe they had been there before and she thought she knew how to get there but only from the freeway (I can only find my MIL's house in Tacoma when I start from SeaTac Airport, but if I start from a hotel or my sisters house in Burien I get lost). Maybe she found the beach before she approached the Williams house but the person she was to meet was not there. Remember the tracks appearing to go in circles in the photos or where the van was found. Maybe she finally got frustrated and stopped at the Williams to use their phone and decided to forget about the meeting and check in with family and be on her way. Then, on her way back down the road maybe she thought she would check the beach one more time. At that time they either got stuck and what happened next was a tragic accident or the person she was meeting finally arrived (either by land or sea) and then what happened next was no accident.

As I said earlier, this 'scenerio' is probably way out there. I cannot even begin to weave all the other evidence/known facts into my story but given enough time I could probably work them in somehow.:blushing:

Totally off-topic...I solemnly swear to refrain from using the word maybe for at least the next three posts.

 

[SMK]

-----

Been thinking about this for a bit. I know what I am thinking will probably seem 'out-there a mile', but of all the possible scenerios running through my head, I keep coming back to this one:

What if Shantina was planning to meet someone in Olympia and had planned to meet them at GHM? Maybe the aimless driving and mapquests were to kill time. Maybe she bought the wine for the person she was meeting. (I am slowly accepting that Shantina may in fact have been drinking again but am still holding out for concrete proof (BAC, toxicology, etc) Maybe she did not know what time GHM closed so when she got there the first time and found the store closed and the payphone out of order she drove elsewhere to call that person. Maybe she stopped somewhere without a camera to make the call. If she succeeded in reaching this person they may have arranged to meet at the beach. Maybe they had been there before and she thought she knew how to get there but only from the freeway (I can only find my MIL's house in Tacoma when I start from SeaTac Airport, but if I start from a hotel or my sisters house in Burien I get lost). Maybe she found the beach before she approached the Williams house but the person she was to meet was not there. Remember the tracks appearing to go in circles in the photos or where the van was found. Maybe she finally got frustrated and stopped at the Williams to use their phone and decided to forget about the meeting and check in with family and be on her way. Then, on her way back down the road maybe she thought she would check the beach one more time. At that time they either got stuck and what happened next was a tragic accident or the person she was meeting finally arrived (either by land or sea) and then what happened next was no accident.

As I said earlier, this 'scenerio' is probably way out there. I cannot even begin to weave all the other evidence/known facts into my story but given enough time I could probably work them in somehow.:blushing:

Totally off-topic...I solemnly swear to refrain from using the word maybe for at least the next three posts.

No, these things are all within the realm of possibility. I think that has to be left open as a possibility, that she had plans to meet someone. We do not know this , but speculation can still hit the mark. A lot of your thoughts make sense,and it was good of you to share, thanks!...and in such a mysterious case, all is grist for the mill. Just wish Shantina and more clues would surface....

 

[floridaheather]

Has anyone considered the idea that in that van somewhere was a GPS device--even if it was something like a phone that got left in there, that could have been used to track her that night? I still say she ran into someone on that beach, or on her way out who led her down to that beach.

 

[floridaheather]

did shantina have any insurance policies on her life? if so, who were the beneficiaries? anyone know?

 

[Calliope]

did shantina have any insurance policies on her life? if so, who were the beneficiaries? anyone know?

She had a relatively new job as a coder with a medical group, IIRC, but I think at the time she went missing it was only part time. I remember RS stating she was excited about an upcoming interview for a job that was full time with benefits; led me to believe she didn't have any at her current job. That doesn't mean there wasn't one taken out privately or elsewhere, of course.

 

[SMK]

So according to Mealy's time line - what happened between 10:35 and 11:00 (25 mins)? It would not have taken her that long to get from GHM to that location off Zangle. It should have taken about 6 mins.

I guess I don't agree with Mealy's statement that nothing criminal could have happened to her in those 25 minutes. Someone could have followed her down there or she could have followed someone she was meeting down there - and then something went horribly wrong.

I agree, because there are hours unaccounted for on the beach; we really don't know when things occurred, and there was that banging at 1 am on the Grimmer's door. When he first heard about the banging, before Azriel had been found, Lt. Mealy had said , "This may not be water related at all." If the poor child had never washed ashore, many would probably now believe he and his Mom had run off somewhere. I think it cannot be discounted that someone followed them. (I think Robb has shown himself in a different light now, asking the questions he has, and stating things as he has. It now makes me feel sorry for him, and that maybe he does need some answers. ) In any case, I wish Shantina would surface, as it would lay to rest any rumors out there that she intended to run off and sacrifice her son (which I do not believe). It might also lead to clues that someone harmed them. I understand they may have simply fallen asleep and gotten swept away by the tide, but Chief Deputy Chamberlain believing those items were dropped there from a backpack makes that seem less likely to me now.....just rambling....:waitasec:

 

[slowpoke]

snipped:

In any case, I wish Shantina would surface, as it would lay to rest any rumors out there that she intended to run off and sacrifice her son (which I do not believe).

I also cannot go with the idea that she ever meant to cause harm to her son. To be the den mother of A's cub scout group was a big commitment that she really seemed to want to do and enjoyed doing. So much you read points to her loving her son very much. In fact, so much also points to her just being very happy with her life, period, that I have a really hard time wrapping my mind around the idea that she could have been wanting to meet up with someone else or running from RS.

Of course, all I really know of SS is what I have learned about her through the media or reading this forum. So I'm sure I do not really have a complete picture of the person SS was.

I think I have just gotten far too obsessed about this case, where I am feeling like I "know" SS, and have become protective of her...Is this crazy of me??