what are your thoughts now? *re-re-poll*

[Whisperer]

Ok..GA's baby disappeared from his crib which was 3 feet away from him and his wife...while they were sleeping. There was no evidence of his mistress taking the baby. He inisist it had to be his GF. Case is unsolved. LE blamed his wife for the disappearance and GA has been her staunchest supporter in his effort to not judge the parents...because he went through it and is convinced she had nothing to do with this horrible crime. He seems like a wonderful person. It is sad that Lisa's parents didn't care to speak w/him. DB never did and JI sat there offering nothing up. Mike L. was there and told GA that the parents are not supposed to speak. WTH?

Upon reading, it is rare to kidnap children under 1 yr. When it happens, the children are usually found safe. It is rare that a stranger would kill a child of this age. Stats say 95% of the time a parent or family member is involved.

 

[Hopeful2]

Ok..GA's baby disappeared from his crib which was 3 feet away from him and his wife...while they were sleeping. There was no evidence of his mistress taking the baby. He inisist it had to be his GF. Case is unsolved. LE blamed his wife for the disappearance and GA has been her staunchest supporter in his effort to not judge the parents...because he went through it and is convinced she had nothing to do with this horrible crime. He seems like a wonderful person. It is sad that Lisa's parents didn't care to speak w/him. DB never did and JI sat there offering nothing up. Mike L. was there and told GA that the parents are not supposed to speak. WTH?

Upon reading, it is rare to kidnap children under 1 yr. When it happens, the children are usually found safe. It is rare that a stranger would kill a child of this age.

Agreed.

 

[Whisperer]

Goodnight Hopeful and everyone else. It's been great. fftobed:

 

[Steely Dan]

Great post. Good thinking going on...I can see why he is on your radar..

What would be the motive for stealing a baby? That is where many of us hit a road block.

I can think of several reasons. Money (for black market baby), a friend or relative that really wants a baby but can't have one, a pedophile and a revenge kidnapping. JMO

*back ont he fence*

http://video.foxnews.com/v/12707393...s-released-of-irwin-family/?playlist_id=87937

:waitasec: I'm gonna have to back off the family now too.

I found an article on statement analysis of this case but the link is banned by Websleuths so I can't post it. However, I can say it makes me think twice about a lot of things.

 

[Kavya01]

I just want to interject that a baby is a TON of work to care for. They almost constantly require something. And it's a stressful job even in a nice place with an organized baby space where everything they may at any point need is present.

This was not an infant, this was an 11 month old who was able to REALLY make her displeasure known. SPECIALLY for a stranger she would have been an impossible luggage to haul about, wriggling and howling.

Then, where would a man take her unobserved? his mom's house? a gf's house? Would he really hang in there and care for this baby and keep it calm and pacified by himself?

Just brainstorming here.

Kav

 

[JohnBull]

So if we go purely on stats...wouldn't we ALWAYS blame the parents in missing child cases?

Most definitely. If it doesn't fit the paradigm, the parents are always guilty by default. No need even for a trial.

 

[Steely Dan]

I find this particularly odd;

http://www.examiner.com/missing-per...issing-cellphone-night-baby-lisa-went-missing

...Hear what Megan said during a KMBC interview Friday:

“I received a phone call - well my phone did, the night that Baby Lisa went missing, apparently a 50-second phone call. I don’t know who answered it, what was said, or who was on the other end of the phone.”

Megan said that the night baby Lisa vanished she and her ex-boyfriend were in the neighborhood, but that she did not know the baby’s family and had not heard of the baby until she saw reports on the news.

Asked what she told police Megan said, “I told them I’d been through the neighborhood with my boyfriend, I’d been through there. I didn’t know the family, I didn’t recognize the pictures. I had never seen Baby Lisa until I saw a picture on the news.”

Megan doesn’t explain how, if she didn’t answer the call, her cellphone would have received a call, and how her cellphone managed to stay on the line for 50 seconds.

She doesn’t say she suspects someone stole her phone, or that someone had borrowed her phone that night. Just that the phone received a call....

Red by me.

That really makes me back off the parents and look hard at Megan. She leaves a lot of questions to be answered. :waitasec:

 

[JohnBull]

I just want to interject that a baby is a TON of work to care for. They almost constantly require something. And it's a stressful job even in a nice place with an organized baby space where everything they may at any point need is present.

This was not an infant, this was an 11 month old who was able to REALLY make her displeasure known. SPECIALLY for a stranger she would have been an impossible luggage to haul about, wriggling and howling.

Then, where would a man take her unobserved? his mom's house? a gf's house? Would he really hang in there and care for this baby and keep it calm and pacified by himself?

Just brainstorming here.

Kav

All good questions. First off, I think it likely that the child was alive at the point of the latest sighting, given the description of the way the man was holding it. If the child had died, I doubt that person would have been walking around with it in full view; that would certainly be too risky for the circumstances. The most logical thing to do with a dead infant would be to simply ditch the body somewhere, or, if it simply had to be transported, conceal it in a bag or some other receptacle.

At that time of night, the child might simply have been overwhelmed by exhaustion. Infants are like that, as any parent knows; once they're konked out, they can sleep through just about anything.

My thought has always been that there was someplace nearby where the kidnapper could take the child. An abandoned house, perhaps? Or the house/apartment of an accomplice? I understand that Jersey was employed in looking after the property of nearby residents who were on vacation. Given his predilection for burglary, one has to suppose that he might have made himself at home, given leave to be on the property.

 

[Hopeful2]

I find this particularly odd;

http://www.examiner.com/missing-per...issing-cellphone-night-baby-lisa-went-missing

...Hear what Megan said during a KMBC interview Friday:

“I received a phone call - well my phone did, the night that Baby Lisa went missing, apparently a 50-second phone call. I don’t know who answered it, what was said, or who was on the other end of the phone.”

Megan said that the night baby Lisa vanished she and her ex-boyfriend were in the neighborhood, but that she did not know the baby’s family and had not heard of the baby until she saw reports on the news.

Asked what she told police Megan said, “I told them I’d been through the neighborhood with my boyfriend, I’d been through there. I didn’t know the family, I didn’t recognize the pictures. I had never seen Baby Lisa until I saw a picture on the news.”

Megan doesn’t explain how, if she didn’t answer the call, her cellphone would have received a call, and how her cellphone managed to stay on the line for 50 seconds.

She doesn’t say she suspects someone stole her phone, or that someone had borrowed her phone that night. Just that the phone received a call....

Red by me.

That really makes me back off the parents and look hard at Megan. She leaves a lot of questions to be answered. :waitasec:

o boy, you think that is confusing- head on over to the cell phone thread! :doh:

 

[JohnBull]

That really makes me back off the parents and look hard at Megan. She leaves a lot of questions to be answered. :waitasec:

I like the way you say "back off" the parents. You're not giving up on them, just relegating them to a lower order of probability, which is the right way to go about analyzing a situation like this one, I believe.

Another suspicious thing about Megan is her assertion that she ran off to the Waffle House at 3:00 a.m., and was out and about, evidently spending her food stamp money, at 6:00 a.m. Not that there couldn't be legitimate reasons for her doing those things, but it sounds remarkably like she's trying to establish an alibi for being out in the early morning.

 

[Kavya01]

Gah lost my whole post. recap:
Statistics matter because they give a PROVEN greatest probable. Prudence dictates to depart from that and rule IT out before entertaining the less obvious.

Consider this scenario: Your physician tell you that 95% of the time, that is, MORE than NINE times out of TEN, the symptoms you are presenting with are indicative of Stage II liver cancer.
Would you then say : "Nah, let's just ignore that proven fact and try and rule out the 25 possible OTHER liver ailments first and test for those and pursue THOSE diagnoses, and if THEY do not pan out, THEN we will check the cancer theory."

Your physician would discharge you from her care immediately if you did because she would know she'd be the one getting sued while you died in your proposed process. Everybody would say: NINETY five % and you let him ignore that? Were you nuts?

Law enforcement is obligated to also consider the proven facts, rule those out first, THEN move on from there. Does not mean they cannot keep other theories on the back burner simultaneously but if the probable factor: here: the parents, keep eluding their being "Ruled Out", law enforcement cannot move on to the next.

I feel these parents are truly obstructing the logical investigation with all their might. THAT is what makes them suspicious. Why are they not bending over backwards to get that part over with quickly? So lisa can be found? And personally, I frown at the " they hurt my feelings and threatened me" excuse.
How does that even register on the scale compared to a baby missing, suffering, dead in a ditch?

If it were on of my two little boys OMG I would offer my limbs, my brain , my eyeballs my life, to help find him. they could hurt my feelings a million times over and it would fade compared to the hurt of my own guilt. truly.

That, is why in my eyes, the mother is the one.

I hope to be proven wrong for it is horrible to have to think it. And I will gladly eat a truck load of crow. Gladly.


Edited to add: ""guilt" I used meaning the guilt I would feel for somehow not having prevented my little son's disappearance.

 

[Steely Dan]

Gah lost my whole post. recap:
Statistics matter because they give a PROVEN greatest probable. Prudence dictates to depart from that and rule IT out before entertaining the less obvious.

Consider this scenario: Your physician tell you that 95% of the time, that is, MORE than NINE times out of TEN, the symptoms you are presenting with are indicative of Stage II liver cancer.
Would you then say : "Nah, let's just ignore that proven fact and try and rule out the 25 possible OTHER liver ailments first and test for those and pursue THOSE diagnoses, and if THEY do not pan out, THEN we will check the cancer theory."

Your physician would discharge you from her care immediately if you did because she would know she'd be the one getting sued while you died in your proposed process. Everybody would say: NINETY five % and you let him ignore that? Were you nuts?

Law enforcement is obligated to also consider the proven facts, rule those out first, THEN move on from there. Does not mean they cannot keep other theories on the back burner simultaneously but if the probable factor: here: the parents, keep eluding their being "Ruled Out", law enforcement cannot move on to the next.

I feel these parents are truly obstructing the logical investigation with all their might. THAT is what makes them suspicious. Why are they not bending over backwards to get that part over with quickly? So lisa can be found? And personally, I frown at the " they hurt my feelings and threatened me" excuse.
How does that even register on the scale compared to a baby missing, suffering, dead in a ditch?

If it were on of my two little boys OMG I would offer my limbs, my brain , my eyeballs my life, to help find him. they could hurt my feelings a million times over and it would fade compared to the hurt of my own guilt. truly.

That, is why in my eyes, the mother is the one.

I hope to be proven wrong for it is horrible to have to think it. And I will gladly eat a truck load of crow. Gladly.


Edited to add: ""guilt" I used meaning the guilt I would feel for somehow not having prevented my little son's disappearance.

BBM

If you were asked on a polygraph if you had anything to do with your kids disappearance do you think that might cause you to fail that question? Just a curious question. If you think it might for you then maybe it would for DB.

 

[Kavya01]

As an innocent?

If I only got asked yes or no questions: yes. I would fail because I would feel that it was my negligence and I was responsible. CERTAINLY if I had been drinking.

However: I CANNOT imagine they do not allow for that factor. I imagine every parent would feel THAT guilt. So then there would have to be follow-up conrtrol questions built in, to sift that guilt out from the guilt of being truly culpable.

I cannot imagine, in this day and age, that that is not being done.
Would you notthink so? in something this crucial a matter?

Kav

 

[Kavya01]

All good questions. First off, I think it likely that the child was alive at the point of the latest sighting, given the description of the way the man was holding it. If the child had died, I doubt that person would have been walking around with it in full view; that would certainly be too risky for the circumstances. The most logical thing to do with a dead infant would be to simply ditch the body somewhere, or, if it simply had to be transported, conceal it in a bag or some other receptacle.

At that time of night, the child might simply have been overwhelmed by exhaustion. Infants are like that, as any parent knows; once they're konked out, they can sleep through just about anything.

My thought has always been that there was someplace nearby where the kidnapper could take the child. An abandoned house, perhaps? Or the house/apartment of an accomplice? I understand that Jersey was employed in looking after the property of nearby residents who were on vacation. Given his predilection for burglary, one has to suppose that he might have made himself at home, given leave to be on the property.

BBM
valid points all, just had to comment about the bolded part, because I heard about children like that, and I wished my little boys had too. :crazy:
Waaaaaaaa sometimes I felt/feel they wake up if I turn my book page. In another room! :banghead:

 

[JohnBull]

Consider this scenario: Your physician tell you that 95% of the time, that is, MORE than NINE times out of TEN, the symptoms you are presenting with are indicative of Stage II liver cancer.
Would you then say : "Nah, let's just ignore that proven fact and try and rule out the 25 possible OTHER liver ailments first and test for those and pursue THOSE diagnoses, and if THEY do not pan out, THEN we will check the cancer theory."

That's why, generally, if you present to the average physician with a rare disease, masquerading as a common one, you're screwed. An average physician will always play the paradigm, as will the average detective. In the course of his training, neither the physician nor the detective gets points for imagination. In the case of the detective, who starts his career "on the beat," it could very well be fatal.

And that's a system that works pretty well, unless you're one of the few.

 

[Kavya01]

That's why, generally, if you present to the average physician with a rare disease, masquerading as a common one, you're screwed. An average physician will always play the paradigm, as will the average detective. In the course of his training, neither the physician nor the detective gets points for imagination. In the case of the detective, who starts his career "on the beat," it could very well be fatal.

And that's a system that works pretty well, unless you're one of the few.

Agreed. But we always need to start somewhere, and, a lot of times even if your case is the exception, it may get discovered, hopefully even on time, despite the time wasted. But yes, in some cases it's not, and in some cases, too late.

That is why I am against death penalties and for second opinions

 

[Steely Dan]

As an innocent?

If I only got asked yes or no questions: yes. I would fail because I would feel that it was my negligence and I was responsible. CERTAINLY if I had been drinking.

However: I CANNOT imagine they do not allow for that factor. I imagine every parent would feel THAT guilt. So then there would have to be follow-up conrtrol questions built in, to sift that guilt out from the guilt of being truly culpable.

I cannot imagine, in this day and age, that that is not being done.
Would you notthink so? in something this crucial a matter?

Kav

Lie detector tests are yes and no answers. There are incompetent people in every single job on the planet and it's possible she dealt with one of them. I also think it's possible that after failing that question the police started to build a case against her. Even if they had to plug square pegs into round holes they are planning on pinning it on her. She may have realized this during interviews and that's why she stopped talking. Why talk when all you're doing is giving ammunition for your own demise.

IF that's true then she might think that the police are no longer interested in finding the real perp so anything she says won't help her find her baby anyway. Which, IMO, is a fair thought.

As has been stated in the vast majority of cases like this it's a family member who's involved. So the police think they are doing the right thing by possibly making up evidence (i.e. the cadaver dog hit) in order to convict her. It wouldn't be the first time or the last time that has happened and there is a lot of pressure to solve this case.

With the phone call and the fact that the recipient of the phone call was in the area earlier with her boyfriend it seems like a very odd coincidence. IF the cadaver dog hit is genuine then it's possible he dropped the kid while trying to kidnap it for his girlfriend and the baby died.

I also think it's possible she's still hiding something that may cause a false positive on the lie detector test but has nothing to do with the disappearance of Lisa.

IIRC, the mother said something to the effect of (when we I mean I woke up...). It's possible she was having an affair and doesn't want her husband to know because then he might turn on her.

Some people here say there are no coincidences but there are and this case proves it I think. It seems there are coincidences pointing to and away from the mother that can't both be right.

As usual all of that is JMO

 

[atthelake]

Clearly if this was an accident, Debbie would have had to have help disposing of the body. I feel pretty sure that you, and I, and 99.99999% of the people posting on this site would agree that if someone asked us to help hide a baby's body, we would freak out and call the cops ourselves. So, why would people immediately suspect that these seemingly normal people would not react the exact same way that most of us would?

:banghead::banghead:Well, 12 folks in Florida were thinking GA did - that he was part of the 0.000001% ........:furious::furious:

 

[Kavya01]

Agreed, steely dan but to me even having an affair or whatever the mother may have been hiding instead of Lisa's disappearance... would that all not become insignificant compared to THAT whole huge fact of your heart, your daughter, missing?
Would you not blurt out everything else about yourself now because how would that even matter anymore... To me I would think I would.


Also, I would tell LE: Listen. I know logic dictates you consider me the first suspect. Tell me how we can work together and what ~I~ can do, what I NEED to do, to make you realize I am not and move on so we can find my child. I'll walk naked through a minefield. I will do 50 more lie detector tests. Hypnotize me. I will have 50 interviews by myself and without my husband present. I will explain to my boys: listen this is hard but we all have to help the police here to get our lisa back. Your parts are to go in also and answer their questions. Because they are not here to frighten us but to HELP us. So you go be big boys. And do this.

That is why I wonder about the mom. because it is how I'd be. I think. So it REALLY puzzles me to hear all her refusing any more cooperation. It really does.
Because life with out my baby, would be no life any longer.

 

[JohnBull]

Why talk when all you're doing is giving ammunition for your own demise.

Could be she had been following the Amanda Knox case.