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IMO there are a number of ways that I could piece this together using what we do know to speculate on related activities. Unfortunately, for one reason or another, those scenarios fall outside of conversations allowed under TOS.
I think it's important to remember, though, that there are a lot of missing pieces that don't fit into the simple and obvious theories. Consider the sealed warrants and motions (3 IIRC with even the party served under seal), Doordash, 19-20 random Tinder accounts, Dropbox, WSU, etc., etc., and LE had probable cause to get those warrants. Warrants are not handed out without probable cause, regardless of who says otherwise. If warrants were given out just to investigate someone, the FBI and LE would have just gotten one for BK much earlier on. But they could not. They did not have PC yet. So what kind of PC must they have had to get warrants for DD, Tinder, Dropbox, etc., and how does that PC link to the PC re BK? Those are the interesting things to ponder IMO.
How do we know they are "random" Tinder accounts? Truly curious.
I assume that judges everywhere work the same - but that there's definitely individual variation on what, exactly, they want to hear or read before they agree there's probable cause. Some judges are stricter than others, and most prosecutors know who their go-to judges are. A phone call can be all it takes. It depends on the ask, and it depends on what cause is given.
Were the "random" Tinder accounts all from a time frame after June 2022? Or was it a wider period? Is that one of the things you're pondering?
Just speculating with you.
I think PC for Tinder (etc) is probably based on things LE saw on Tinder - as opposed to the DNA on the sheath or the model year of the car. Surely they had a search that was broader than just BK?
BTW, some judges are willing to go for PC if LE asks to investigate known associates of any of the victims, esp. if there were any social exchanges close to the time of the killings. So, for all we know, some members of Sigma Chi had some of their SM looked at, to see if they had deleted tweets or messages or anything that might have shed light on allegations about Sigma Chi that were rampant right after the murders. Also, Sigma Alpha Epsilon (which, IIRC, had just been either kicked off campus or started its own off-campus branch/party house - very near 1122 King) was initially looked at. Because some of the housemates are plainly partying (in bodycam video) with people from those places. Is that enough for an Idaho judge? I have no clue.
The partying was not that night, of course. But I would think LE would be trying to piece together the Four's social lives and whom they may have encountered, when and where, etc. Crimes like these affect many, many uninvolved and innocent people, causing lots of anxiety and lost sleep.
IMO.