Australia - 3 dead after eating wild mushrooms, Leongatha, Victoria, Aug 2023 #14 *Arrest*

[Spectrix]

One of the prosecution's arguments that really doesn't make sense is that she thought the cancer lie would never get out because they'd be dead. There was plenty of time for them to tell other people, especially Simon. It's not unlikely that they might have called him to tell him the news straight away.

Simon was supposed to turn up to the lunch, that way (being dead) he wouldn't be around to report the premise of the lunch to anyone.
Erin did not plan on Simon refusing to attend, nor did she plan on him insisting that his family attend hospital. She didn't plan much at all, aside from them all ending up dead.

As for the 10-30% thing, this is by far the most common number given. A quick chatgpt search summarises it like this:

Okay, so riddle me this, since we know the following:
A) Erin weighed her Deathcaps
B) The quantity needed to make an adult properly dead is 30 - 50 grams

In your scenario, what is the weight of fresh Deathcaps required to make an adult 10-30% dead?

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

I've been busy and need to catch up, but wanted to quickly emphasise a point around this.
The DC possibility was first raised on Sunday night 10.30pm I believe, by an on-call toxicologist to a chief toxicologist.

The chief toxicologist wasn't convinced.

I find this very interesting. For some reason the chief toxicologist just didn't see it as a high possibility. Why was this...

• Was it because such patients usually come in with the information that "We have eaten some foraged mushrooms"??
• "Wrong" season??
• Or.... what?

After all, it was known from earlier that day that they had eaten mushrooms. So why was it that the chief toxicologist didn't consider it valid enough to say, Yes very likely, start the antidote at once...?

By NO means am I blaming the toxicologist! I am certain they did the best they could with what they knew. I am still just puzzled and intrigued about this point.

I would imagine toxicologists have a triage system whereby they ask a series of questions that try to determine the most common sources of food poisoning down to the lowest and more rare in that hierarchy.

Having only eaten and drunk usual foods at home or from packets and then all four come together for a meal at someone's home, that would have immediately ruled in EP's dinner but then they'd be thinking of the usual culprits bearing in mind the symptoms. The vomiting, unaccompanied by swelling or rashes or hives etc then quickly followed by diarrhea means they'd be looking at all the usual food poisoning (as opposed to allergic reactions or environmental hazards) - undercooked meat, poultry or fish, bad dairy produce, contaminated water, poor hygiene.

They'd have no doubt asked have you eaten any found or foraged foods or gifted food or unusual items from food stalls or markets and of course the victims would have said 'no'. So they'd have ruled out poisonous berries and mushrooms. Probably quite quickly ruled them back in again!

JMO MOO

 

[Neet_Mc]

If you're on the electoral role, you may get called up one day!
You'll have a head start after learning everything from this trial hehe

...but you may just be on a case where some fool has embezzled one million $ from their company books.

I have ALWAYS wanted to do jury duty. When I got called up it was within 6 months of moving interstate. As I was no longer in the state, I had to decline. Never been called up again in the 12 years since!

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

She bought the dehydrator two hours after being pinged in DC territory. Coincidence my foot, IMO [bbm]:

Dr Rogers tool Ms Patterson to evidence from telecommunications expert professor Matthew Sorrell that indicate a “possible” hour-long visit to the nearby town of Loch on April 28.

Previously, the jury heard evidence that Christine McKenzie posted a sighting of death cap mushrooms at the Loch recreation reserve on April 18 on the citizen science website iNaturalist.

Asked if she travelled to Loch on that day, Ms Patterson said “I don’t know” but she denied visiting the town to locate death caps.

“I suggest you had no legitimate reason to travel to Loch, correct or incorrect?” Dr Rogers asked.

“Incorrect,” Ms Patterson replied.

Dr Rogers told the court within two hours of the possible visit, Ms Patterson had driven to a homeware store to buy a dehydrator at 12.17pm.

“I did buy that that day, yes,” she said.

https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/courts-law/erin-patterson-trial-alleged-mushroom-poisoner-to-give-evidence-for-seventh-day/news-story/8de6b240063da071c1f1865a022a3e9c

So she went to the right location at the correct time of year and was able to locate and pick the from the sighted and reported crop of deadly mushrooms and then went straight and bought a dehydrator.
She probably wanted to dehydrate and powder the mushrooms to keep whilst she had the opportunity, in case they didn't re-appear for another year or so, or maybe even eradicated completely.

If that were the case, she can surely have only had nefarious intentions for those dried mushrooms?

JMO MOO

 

[CityKid]

If anyone is on Reddit, you might get a laugh at the poetry and rap lyrics you can find on r/DeathCapDinner.

 

[Baby baby Jane]

Using the DC was no rash decision, do wonder if she had been plotting and waiting for an opportune time to spike food or drink (that birthday to which she wasn’t invited??).

Once she realised she was no longer being invited … she needed to make up the cancer lunch.

Erin at Church after service or that Birthday : “Don, Gail … let me get you a coffee…or Don, Gail - ginger nut biscuit? ”. a bit of DC powder would go unnoticed in typical instant coffee. Perhaps been carrying the powder in her purse for months.

 

[SouthAussie]

Murder isn't rational but it isn't random either. Generally people will murder because it will benefit them in some way.

I'm not sure how randomly killing 4 people benefits Erin Patterson. You'd have to be stupid to think that 4/5 people would die and your life would be made better. Of course people will suspect you and you'll face negative consequences.

There's no reason to think Erin hates the Pastor and his wife, and there isn't good evidence that she hated the inlaws. A couple of frustrated texts doesn't prove that.

We already know she was lying about her health to get sympathy, and I think she thought she could be part of a mysterious poisoning (with even death) that she exploit for more sympathy.

There are those who have killed people to hurt others. Kaitlyn Conley poisoned and killed her former boyfriend's mother (Mary Yoder) to hurt him.

There are parents who have killed their own children so the other parent won't have the children any more.

imo

 

[Bats]

DBM

 

[Jake18]

It's not immediately fatal. Victims can articulate what they experienced leading up to and during that time.

Medical staff is going to search for the source of the food borne source. If the meal had actual mushrooms, it'll be flagged --

The key was the DCs.

Invisible in the meal.

Undetectable in the body after 48 hours.

IF a person was 100% convinced of those two truths, that confidence could blind them to variables they didn't think of.

It's not immediately fatal. Victims can articulate what they experienced leading up to and during that time.

Medical staff is going to search for the source of the food borne source. If the meal had actual mushrooms, it'll be flagged --

And once they start looking at mushrooms, it takes just one person familiar with DCs and now the two statements above fall apart.

And you've suddenly got a criminal investigation...

JMO

The medical detail Erin wasn’t aware of is how highly unusual it is for people to present with gastro symptoms (whether from food poisoning or viral gastro) and then get worse and get worse in a way that is highly suggestive of toxin ingestion. The rapidly rising lactate and increasing signs of liver damage are medical signs she didn’t think of.

I think Erin thinks she’s the smartest person in the room, forgetting that other people - medical staff, detectives - can be smart as well.

I keep thinking about the autopsy findings in the guests with their destroyed, dead livers and extensive gut damage. What a horrible way to die.

Edited to add: sorry, first part was meant to be a quote.

 

[Eloise]

It's not immediately fatal. Victims can articulate what they experienced leading up to and during that time.

Medical staff is going to search for the source of the food borne source. If the meal had actual mushrooms, it'll be flagged --

The medical detail Erin wasn’t aware of is how highly unusual it is for people to present with gastro symptoms (whether from food poisoning or viral gastro) and then get worse and get worse in a way that is highly suggestive of toxin ingestion. The rapidly rising lactate and increasing signs of liver damage are medical signs she didn’t think of.

I think Erin thinks she’s the smartest person in the room, forgetting that other people - medical staff, detectives - can be smart as well.

I keep thinking about the autopsy findings in the guests with their destroyed, dead livers and extensive gut damage. What a horrible way to die

exactly. You don't know what you don't know. I'm sure she thought that faking gastro symptoms would be good enough. Its never a good idea to think you're the smartest person in the room. In my experience its the smartest, most educated and experienced people who are the most humble about their knowledge. Subject matter experts are quick to say something is outside their field of expertise, they don't ever try and act like they know everything.

Based on everything @Detechtive has said about her, I think Erin probably often was smarter than other people. But having general intellectual capability doesn't mean you know better than people who have deep knowledge in a particular subject.

 

[Detechtive]

Fascinating!

Her mother was a professor of children’s literature. I’m pretty sure they were all immersed in the classics.

Okay, let's go with your Theory: Erin intends to make 4-5 guests 10-30% dead.

She collects the Deathcaps in Loch on April 28 (which, as you've pointed out can't be proven... the data isn't clear etc), and bought the dehydrator two hours later (This has been proven 100%... It's a little more than a coincidence that it happens right after the "possible foraging", no?).

We know from photos she's collected 500g of Deathcaps. That's enough Deathcaps to make 10x adults dead. And I mean properly dead. Not just 10-30% dead. But hey, maybe she collected a few extra just to be sure.

We have the photos in evidence that she weighed them on her digital scales, and weighed them again after dehydrating them (mushrooms are 90% water, so it best to be very clear on the weights... you want to get the quantities perfectly right when you're trying to make your inlaws 10-30% dead).

Erin then devises her plan to lour the lunch guests with her sudden case of terminal ovarian cancer of the elbow / laparoscopic band surgery / liposuction at a dermatology clinic for which she doesn't know how to tell the children and thinks she might need some help dropping them off to the bus stop each morning.

The guests all agree to turn up to their 10-30% murders except for Simon, but never mind, there's an extra Beef Wellington in the oven just for him in case he stops by to say hello when he brings the kids back from the movies.

The guest's then eat their lunches and end up 10-30% dead.

Are you still reading? I hope so because this is the part of the plot where I'm really struggling to imagine what Erin plans to do next. What has she achieved, exactly, by making her guests 10-30% dead?
Or if we consider the actual outcome, she made her 4 guests 75% dead. So where exactly did she go wrong?

Was it the measurements?

How do you even weigh the correct amount of Deathcap to make your victim 10-30% dead, when the most commonly available figures are the quantities of 30-50 grams, the amount required to make an adult properly dead?

-

I believe this is called overkill

 

[Detechtive]

Murder isn't rational but it isn't random either. Generally people will murder because it will benefit them in some way.

I'm not sure how randomly killing 4 people benefits Erin Patterson. You'd have to be stupid to think that 4/5 people would die and your life would be made better. Of course people will suspect you and you'll face negative consequences.

There's no reason to think Erin hates the Pastor and his wife, and there isn't good evidence that she hated the inlaws. A couple of frustrated texts doesn't prove that.

We already know she was lying about her health to get sympathy, and I think she thought she could be part of a mysterious poisoning (with even death) that she exploit for more sympathy.

Nearly all domestic violent murders, which I think this is, don’t have a clear benefit. They are killed when they are leaving because the perpetrator needs control back.

But it could just be spite and revenge.

Nearly all family annihilation murders are for revenge, other than the altruistic murders where the children are killed.

I also believe there are financial reasons for it. I think he was going to divorce her and her financial means would have been depleted. The #1 motive for poisoning is financial, especially with female perpetrators. IMO

 

[Jess D]

Essentially yes. My theory is that she was putting in the DC to poison them and expecting mixed results. Some would get very sick, maybe even die and her 'gastro' would not be nearly as suspicious because maybe others would only get ill. This would be a situation she could then exploit for her own gain. Not only does she have cancer, but she is running around after all of these people.

One of the prosecution's arguments that really doesn't make sense is that she thought the cancer lie would never get out because they'd be dead. There was plenty of time for them to tell other people, especially Simon. It's not unlikely that they might have called him to tell him the news straight away.

As for the 10-30% thing, this is by far the most common number given. A quick chatgpt search summarises it like this:

The fatality rate for death cap mushrooms (Amanita phalloides) is estimated to be around 10% to 30% in untreated cases. However, with prompt and aggressive medical treatment, the fatality rate drops significantly to around 10% or lower.

In my theory, the powdering has vastly increased the dose to where it has happened more quickly and more deadly. This now makes her gastro look extremely unusual, and it also led to the identification of the DC which vastly scuppered her plans.

Do you really think that Erin thought she could cause the murder of 4/5 people and not think about the consequences? She's had months to prepare for the meal but she didn't think of the afterwards?

The powdering didn't increase the dose. She used 500 grams of Death Caps! All the drying did was make them easier to disguise and use in a concentrated dose.

 

[Kemug]

You don’t think Erin saying to friends that she’s had enough of them, they’re lost causes, she’s done with them, she wants to wipe them from her life, Simon is coercive, abusive, controlling, abusive - along with the family and Simon allegedly pulling away, Erin taking the children out of a private school without consultation with their other parent, and Simon putting separated on his tax return which seemed to trigger her - all these things aren’t a motive?

To us it doesn't seem like enough of a motive, but I believe that to Erin it did.

 

[Detechtive]

To us it doesn't seem like enough of a motive, but I believe that to Erin it did.

Agree. I see a lot of people trying to analyse crimes through their own lense, which doesn’t work when you’re dealing with a disordered thinker.

If you look at this through a lense of narcissism or psychopathy it all makes sense IMO.

 

[Jess D]

exactly. You don't know what you don't know. I'm sure she thought that faking gastro symptoms would be good enough. Its never a good idea to think you're the smartest person in the room. In my experience its the smartest, most educated and experienced people who are the most humble about their knowledge. Subject matter experts are quick to say something is outside their field of expertise, they don't ever try and act like they know everything.

Based on everything @Detechtive has said about her, I think Erin probably often was smarter than other people. But having general intellectual capability doesn't mean you know better than people who have deep knowledge in a particular subject.

It's apparent just from the way that Erin answers the questions from Dr Rogers that she thinks she's smarter than everyone else...

 

[Jess D]

Agree. I see a lot of people trying to analyse crimes through their own lense, which doesn’t work when you’re dealing with a disordered thinker.

If you look at this through a lense of narcissism or psychopathy it all makes sense IMO.

That's probably why at least one jury member won't agree to the guilty verdict IMO.

 

[Jess D]

I disagree with this. We don’t require Erin’s lies to work out why she did it.

Imo it’s very clear why she did it (if she is guilty of murder). Control and power and her losing it in the lead up. The details aren’t as relevant IMO

Yes, control, power, financial motive and resentment.

But as you say, at the end of the day we don't need to know and probably will never know what her motive was...

 

[Jess D]

For those of us that do not believe the mushroom lunch was a tragic accident, I am curious, do you think Erin was an experienced forager for wild edible mushrooms or do you think the dc mushroom gathering outings in Loch and Outtrim were her only foraging experiences?

I think I can see that either could be true, though there is only her word, and that of the anonymous friend quoted by the Daily Mail, that she is an experienced forager.

The reason I ask is because I was looking through Facebook and instagram posts from a Korumburra group called “Grow Lightly” (they appear to be a food co-op/ store in Korumburra) and found some posts about mushroom foraging workshops on June 21st, 2022.
I believe they are the same people that facilitated the mushroom growing workshop advertised in the “Burra Flyer” during Erin’s time as editor.
View attachment 595046

I am wondering if Erin either attended these workshops herself or used the details (types of mushrooms, locations: Korumburra Botanic Park and Great Southern Rail Trail) to inform her evidence as an “experienced forager”.

Interesting that this workshop was the week before her (allegedly) searching for dcs on iNaturalist too.

Some screenshots below from “grow lightly” on instagram and Facebook .
(IMO the person in the last picture in maroon parka even looks a bit like her, probably just my imagination though )

View attachment 595033View attachment 595034View attachment 595035View attachment 595036

If there was any weight in what the supposed 'family friend' told the Daily Mail, you would think that she may have been called as a witness for the prosecution. Also Simon was apparently unaware that Erin had been foraging and I'm sure he would have said if he had have been.

Whether she was an experienced forager or not, she is someone who does her research and just looking at Death Caps online shows you exactly what to avoid picking. (unless you want to hurt or kill someone/some people)...

 

[Kemug]

The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

RSBM
This old saying has now taken on a whole new meaning for me!