Australia - 3 dead after eating wild mushrooms, Leongatha, Victoria, Aug 2023 #14 *Arrest*

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

I've been trying to think of ways it could have been more plausibly explained (if it was intentional), but none of the ways make sense. If it was one person at a time, over an extended period, it wouldn't been suspicious IMO, but there was always going to be an intense focus and investigation on a death which killed 3,4,5 people. IMO

This is the only part of the whole situation that makes her look innocent IMO - the fact that nobody could expect to get away with such a far out and obvious poisoning crime.

We know EP is calculating and academically intelligent, gifted even. Therefore, IMO she mis-calculated or misunderstood something. She could not have thought 'OK these people are all going to die within the next week and nobody will connect it to me'. Plus she used a completely different coloured plate, meaning that any survivor would easily remember this detail and inform detectives.

Therefore, I believe she thought the situation would unfold slowly over time, that the elderly people would get degenerative problems with their organs and liver and that this would happen at different rates with different people, she may have even put different amounts of powdered DC in each BW. I imagine the main person she wanted to see off was SP and given his prior history, he would definitely not have survived.

Her story of 'asian' store and dumping the dehydrator etc, messing around with the phone handsets and doing factory reset, all that was invented on the hop or done reactively. She never imagined anyone would suspect her of something. Therefore she didn't predict such a rapid and extreme death for her victims IMO.

JMO MOO

 

[JBowie]

Those are to use in a post. We only have five to choose from when it comes to reacting to someone else's post - unless you subscribe to be a guardian.

I find that there are already enough for me. I don't use them very often myself.

 

[Moll]

I find that there are already enough for me. I don't use them very often myself.

More than enough. I think longingly of the days before they existed!

 

[Jake18]

Therefore she didn't predict such a rapid and extreme death for her victims IMO.

This is what I think went wrong for Erin.

I don’t think she anticipated that the guests would die (or nearly die) in a way that alerted medical staff. Maybe she’d read something that instead said that people would be unwell and die but the course of illness and then death would be insidious and no cause would be attributed. Maybe she thought they’d die at home but that no one would realise there’d been a unifying lunch, given Ian was supposed to die and Simon was also supposed to be there. Maybe she thought they’d die more slowly.

Instead:

Simon didn’t go and instead took his parents and then Gail and Ian to hospital urgently. I wonder if he was spurred into action by his own mysterious illnesses after Erin fed him - maybe something “clicked” for him, even subconsciously.

At hospital tests for deterioration/cell death have advanced with the use of a blood lactate test. This was normal with the guests on arrival, then increased, suggesting there was progressive organ damage along with the signs of liver damage.

A switched on infectious diseases trainee working on call realised that this clinical course didn’t fit with food poisoning and called toxicology and death cap poisoning was considered.

Communication between medical providers meant everyone was then on the same page.

Erin around this time maybe also realises there is a new toxin test for death caps.

And then she panics - wiping phones, lying to everyone, possibly disposing of evidence (subway trip with son, toilets at service station) and trying to dispose of evidence (dehydrator).

 

[JBowie]

I don’t think she anticipated that the guests would die (or nearly die) in a way that alerted medical staff. Maybe she’d read something that instead said that people would be unwell and die but the course of illness and then death would be insidious and no cause would be attributed. Maybe she thought they’d die at home but that no one would realise there’d been a unifying lunch, given Ian was supposed to die and Simon was also supposed to be there. Maybe she thought they’d die more slowly.

A characteristic of death cap poisoning is victims appear to get better for a while before total and rapid system collapse occurs, as any Google search readily finds:

Symptoms of death cap mushroom poisoning usually occur 6–24 hours after ingestion and include abdominal pains, nausea, vomiting and diarrhoea. Symptoms may improve or go away for 1–2 days giving a false impression of recovery. However, by this stage the toxin will have already caused serious liver damage.

However for anyone to think that relatives and police would not find the common link (i.e. the joint lunch) is beyond naive. IMO,

 

[Jake18]

A characteristic of death cap poisoning is victims appear to get better for a while before total and rapid system collapse occurs, as any Google search readily finds:

Symptoms of death cap mushroom poisoning usually occur 6–24 hours after ingestion and include abdominal pains, nausea, vomiting and diarrhoea. Symptoms may improve or go away for 1–2 days giving a false impression of recovery. However, by this stage the toxin will have already caused serious liver damage.

However for anyone to think that relatives and police would not find the common link (i.e. the joint lunch) is beyond naive. IMO,

Without the death caps being identified the common link would be suspected but wouldn’t have been confirmed. Blood, stool tests would have been negative for food poisoning pathogens and nothing would be able to be pinned on Erin, though I’m sure it would have been suspected.

I wonder if she always planned to have gastro symptoms herself, or created them when guests were hospitalised

 

[MrJ]

Hubris would be EP's downfall if she is found guilty. Hubris that she'd never be found out. Hubris that the victims of the lunch would die with little fanfare. Hubris that everyone would believe her word it was just a tragic accident. But her word became unreliable when she started to lie, and her testimony, in terms of truth, unravelled. Fair bit of naivety I suppose too if she wanted to pull off 'the perfect crime'. But unluckily for her, the medical staff found out the cause of her in-laws' illness and hence the charges being brought against her. IMO

 

[Jake18]

What if the in-laws were the type to never go to the doctor. Never complain, and what if Erin didn’t anticipate the violence of the symptoms?

Even when you google the symptoms it just indicates symptoms like a food bug, but it doesn’t explain the severity - like vomiting 30 times in one night.

If it wasn’t for Simon, none of the 4 would have gone to hospital. He insisted.

Does that change your theory? If so I’d love to hear it. Love your logic in this case.

Good point. They would have died in 3 different households. Erin’s online friends knew she was planning a lunch though - did anyone else?

 

[Klclevi]

Does anyone know if EP attended the funerals of Don, Gail and Heather? (I assume not due to the circumstances)
If you were innocent would you not be pleading your innocence to your ex husband and trying to be there as a member of the family you say you loved even though you made a mistake? You would be putting your grief up front and centre - taking accountability and being transparent about what you accidentally did.
Even if she was not permitted to go to the funerals - surely thats something in court you would attest to - as a supposedly religious person to put members of your family to rest?

This all has to be about Simon in some way. Why would you lend hundreds of thousands of dollars to his family members in good faith to help them out and then try to poison their parents (and possibly Simon earlier on)

I think there is way more to this than we will ever know.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

Ironically, if there is any reasonable doubt in this case it comes from the areas where surely Erin wouldn't have been so stupid. Surely she would have realised that killing 4 people would have brought intense scrutiny. Surely she would have disposed of the dehydrator beforehand. Surely she would have been more careful browsing online etc

Almost none of the reasonable doubt would be coming from her own testimony over 2 weeks. This has just been a mess of being caught out in lies and unlikely explanations. If anything she has removed quite a bit of the reasonable doubt.

I've expressed same sentiment repeatedly -

either:

1) EP thought she was beyond scrutiny for some delusional reason, four or five people could die within days of eating lunch with her and nobody would a) be interested or b) connect it to her?

2) EP did not think anyone (except possibly SP, had he attended) would die at all, except in maybe slowly the long term?

3) EP didn't care if everyone died and people thought it was her who killed them because she delusionally believed there'd be no proof and she could front it out and remain free?

4) EP thought a stupid story about an 'asian grocer' would be sufficient and nobody would investigate further? (I *don't* think she's so silly as to believe that)

5) EP doesn't care and had factored in the risk she would spend the rest of her life in prison.


The above patterns of thinking all point in one direction - this is a person who is dangerous, reckless, and a gambler. Gambling with her own life, with other people's lives, with the courts, the public, her future, and reality itself.

IMO if guilty she needs to be detained in a monitored forensic psychiatric facility because she could be too dangerous to other prisoners (and staff) for general population due to her high intelligence, manipulation, dishonesty, and level of risk taking. Also if / when convicted, she's got nothing to lose.

JMO MOO

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

This is what I think went wrong for Erin.

I don’t think she anticipated that the guests would die (or nearly die) in a way that alerted medical staff. Maybe she’d read something that instead said that people would be unwell and die but the course of illness and then death would be insidious and no cause would be attributed. Maybe she thought they’d die at home but that no one would realise there’d been a unifying lunch, given Ian was supposed to die and Simon was also supposed to be there. Maybe she thought they’d die more slowly.

Instead:

Simon didn’t go and instead took his parents and then Gail and Ian to hospital urgently. I wonder if he was spurred into action by his own mysterious illnesses after Erin fed him - maybe something “clicked” for him, even subconsciously.

At hospital tests for deterioration/cell death have advanced with the use of a blood lactate test. This was normal with the guests on arrival, then increased, suggesting there was progressive organ damage along with the signs of liver damage.

A switched on infectious diseases trainee working on call realised that this clinical course didn’t fit with food poisoning and called toxicology and death cap poisoning was considered.

Communication between medical providers meant everyone was then on the same page.

Erin around this time maybe also realises there is a new toxin test for death caps.

And then she panics - wiping phones, lying to everyone, possibly disposing of evidence (subway trip with son, toilets at service station) and trying to dispose of evidence (dehydrator).

Exactly this - that's my main theory too.

Also that the dried out powdered mushrooms, each mushroom being organic and randomly from nature is unpredictable. She could have believed she'd picked fairly 'weak' out of season DC mushrooms that may or may not even have any poison in them and may not even do anything at all. Instead actually picked really strong high content potent ones that when dried and powdered were even more fatally toxic with an immediate effect.

This is what I mean about her being a compulsive gambler. I'll bet that her disease of addiction is manifesting in other areas.

JMO MOO

 

[Lisa4]

What if the in-laws were the type to never go to the doctor. Never complain, and what if Erin didn’t anticipate the violence of the symptoms?

Even when you google the symptoms it just indicates symptoms like a food bug, but it doesn’t explain the severity - like vomiting 30 times in one night.

If it wasn’t for Simon, none of the 4 would have gone to hospital. He insisted.

to all of the above.
You've put everything so well that I have been thinking too.

I suspect she hadnt experienced proper food poisoning herself, it's vastly worse than gastro.

As to the bolded parts by me

• Wilkinsons had indeed put it down to a passing violent gastro and were "sleeping it off" when SP woke them.
• They wouldn't have gone to hospital that day otherwise.
• Don P had eaten more than his expected share and it was only because of his violent symptoms that they did call an ambulance.

 

[MaxDecimus13]

Exactly this - that's my main theory too.

Also that the dried out powdered mushrooms, each mushroom being organic and randomly from nature is unpredictable. She could have believed she'd picked fairly 'weak' out of season DC mushrooms that may or may not even have any poison in them and may not even do anything at all. Instead actually picked really strong high content potent ones that when dried and powdered were even more fatally toxic with an immediate effect.

This is what I mean about her being a compulsive gambler. I'll bet that her disease of addiction is manifesting in other areas.

JMO MOO

I was interested to hear the prosecution in cross suggest this week that they thought she was surprised how quickly they had gotten seriously ill.

Of course you cannot discount any of the other reasons you outlined and sadly we'll probably never know. For me, the one that makes the most sense with the rest of the evidence is that she somehow hadn't anticipated that it would be so effective so quickly and had maybe factored in a much more varied situation. Then she would fit into this because she was one of the ones who didn't get as sick.

There are holes with this of course, but there are holes with pretty much every theory in this case innocent or guilty.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

to all of the above.
You've put everything so well that I have been thinking too.

I suspect she hadnt experienced proper food poisoning herself, it's vastly worse than gastro.

As to the bolded parts by me

• Wilkinsons had indeed put it down to a passing violent gastro and were "sleeping it off" when SP woke them.
• They wouldn't have gone to hospital that day otherwise.
• Don P had eaten more than his expected share and it was only because of his violent symptoms that they did call an ambulance.

I believe that SP introduced the 'what if she's poisoning us?' immediately on finding out about the sickness.

Maybe that's when the penny truly dropped for him that is prior ailments were no accident.

Or possibly he could have suspected there's an envrinomental toxin or just shoddy hygiene at the home of EP but then why would it not have been harming EP or their children or dog? So he could rule that quickly out. He could even worry that EP had used foraged or toxic ingredients and may have gone along with that until also realising she herself wasn't unwell and that she'd ensured the children weren't present.

After beginning to realise there's at the very least a serious food poisoning problem, he asks a few questions to the family and this is maybe why the different plate was quickly worrisome. Then the dehydrator.

JMO MOO

 

[Klclevi]

I believe that SP introduced the 'what if she's poisoning us?' immediately on finding out about the sickness.

Maybe that's when the penny truly dropped for him that is prior ailments were no accident.

Or possibly he could have suspected there's an envrinomental toxin or just shoddy hygiene at the home of EP but then why would it not have been harming EP or their children or dog? So he could rule that quickly out. He could even worry that EP had used foraged or toxic ingredients and may have gone along with that until also realising she herself wasn't unwell and that she'd ensured the children weren't present.

After beginning to realise there's at the very least a serious food poisoning problem, he asks a few questions to the family and this is maybe why the different plate was quickly worrisome. Then the dehydrator.

JMO MOO

Totally agree with you and Jake18

 

[mamamama9873]

She was totally being deceptive... from day dot at the hospital she said she scraped off the mushrooms, that's why she didn't think the children were affected at first.

Absolutely - she was adamant that the kids were fed leftovers from the lunch as she stated she had scraped off the mushrooms as they didn’t like mushrooms. This was the whole point why she didn’t think they got sick. She is now being smart and retracted that they ate lunch leftovers and said it was just leftovers - what utter nonsense from her once again..

 

[srper2]

So many different careers have been mentioned in articles, somewhwere I read Erin was suppsed to have been an air traffic controller, then an accountant with Department of Defence. Then reports that she worked for Monash council as a RSPCA rep? All this while also living in Perth? Both parents suppsedly die of cancer in quick succession, conveniently when Erin wanted to buy houses and open a book shop. Is her sister still alive? Parents and sister weren't at her wedding? Arranged wedding when parents overseas?

How Erin Patterson's life of wealth fell apart before mushroom lunch

Wealthy mother-of-two Erin Patterson is in custody after her privileged life unravelled when her marriage collapsed and she allegedly served a fatal mushroom lunch.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The timeline prosecutors allege in the mushroom murder trial

The six-week murder trial of Erin Patterson is underway in the regional Victorian town of Morwell. Here's what we know so far about the case, based on material put to the jury.

www.abc.net.au

 

[srper2]

I can't remember if I mentioned it would have been interesting to ask the children if mum usually fed the dog scraps from meals. Erin disposed of any meal scraps in the bin and apparently didnt give any to the dog or the children, telling behaviour since they were poison.

 

[Megnut]

Why didn't EP reschedule the lunch or carry on with the lunch, order take out, and have another lunch later? Why did she press on?

You know what wasn't discussed at lunch? Or at least wasn't reported by Ian -- Simon's "behavior", enlisting support, asking then to intervene. It's almost like she no longer expected that from them. Hmm.

JMO

 

[Monstradamus]

Does anybody know why the purchases of the extra mushrooms and pastry in the week prior to the lunch were taken from her rewards card and not purchase receipts from Woolworths?
Did she maybe pay for them in cash but scan her rewards card?

Each time a Rewards Card is used, it produces an E Receipt (which remains on your Rewards account) with a very detailed list of groceries, whether you pay cash or card.