Australia - 3 dead after eating wild mushrooms, Leongatha, Victoria, Aug 2023 #14 *Arrest*

[Megnut]

Two facts (if you believe Ian, as I do):

EP had a different plate

EP did not ingest the DC toxin.

IMO no one was supposed to live long enough to report the different plates. And no one was supposed to be tested for the DC toxin, within the first 48 hours.

IF the hospital/ME had been unaware of the last supper event and no victim was tested within 48 hours (hence no DC toxin detected), would the liver damage have pointed toward that particular toxin or would only a mystery remain? Indeterminate toxicity.

JMO

 

[Megnut]

If EP got rid of cookbooks (speculation), the dehydrator, the grey plates (speculation), why didn't she dispose of the BW leftovers farther from home?

It's from that binned food, that the DCs were genetically identified, no?

Why on earth did she preserve them and why did she direct LE to them, straightaway?

 

[Smelly Squirrel]

I'm not disputing the actual toxicity, I'm explaining how easy it would have been for Erin to assume it wasn't as toxic as many people think it is.

If you ChatGPT it now, it clearly states 10-30% reducing to less than 10% with the right treatment, it doesn't give another figure. Erin could very well have been working on this assumption.This doesn't in any way absolve her BTW.

We can't fully discount anything of course because if guilty we'll likely never know her motive, but I just don't find the idea that she thought she could murder 4/5 people and get on with her life very convincing. It would have to be an act of monumental self-sabotage or that of an unthinking murderer. It also raises the further questions of why those 4 particular people, and why she was so careless in hiding evidence.

When I look at the evidence and the definite facts we have, I see a woman who saw lying about having cancer as something that would benefit her. She looked for sympathy and got a kick out of people feeling sorry for her to the point where she faked it. If she was part of a great tragedy, then it would bring them closer together, and she could look like a saint for running around after the survivors despite having cancer.

I don't think it matters in the verdict, because it would still be covered by "an intention to kill them or to cause really serious injury." moo

 

[MaxDecimus13]

I was listening to the ABC podcast today, and there were a couple of little instances I hadn't quite considered before. Basically, if you listen to Erin's testimony you can read through the lines for what Simon thinks.

First, is her testimony that he asked if she'd used the dehydrator to poison his parents. Even though he disputes this, if true it would indicate he thought her capable of such a thing at this early stage.

Second, was the suggestion that he'd been sarcastic towards Erin about her being not ill enough to get the kids. This shows that he was suspicious at this very early stage that she was faking it.

You have to presume that Simon knows Erin better than anyone, and has lived with her for many years. Isn't it more than a bit telling that he considered she was faking her illness before anyone had even died?

 

[MaxDecimus13]

I don't think it matters in the verdict, because it would still be covered by "an intention to kill them or to cause really serious injury." moo

Of course this is true.

The questions of whether she will be found guilty in this case, and the question of why she might have done it are two quite different things to consider.

The jury doesn't need to know why, they just have to believe that the prosecution has provided enough evidence that the 4 got sick because Erin poisoned their food. We can speculate (very carefully of course) about why, if guilty, she would have done this.

After all, I suspect come the end of the trial many will agree she was guilty, but we won't necessarily agree on what the plan was or exactly how she did it.

 

[MaxDecimus13]

If EP got rid of cookbooks (speculation), the dehydrator, the grey plates (speculation), why didn't she dispose of the BW leftovers farther from home?

It's from that binned food, that the DCs were genetically identified, no?

Why on earth did she preserve them and why did she direct LE to them, straightaway?

Good points, but I'm pretty sure they only went to the leftovers because they had suspicions about what had been eaten.

Surely as well this is after Erin's initial visit to the hospital where the prosecution allege that she first realised they had identified DC and then rushed home to change her plan.

Obviously, she couldn't obstruct police, but she'd desperately concocted the Asian grocer line by this point. She'd possibly decided this was her best bet and to seem outraged if evidence was found.

 

[iridized]

I read it's 9 men and 5 women. Originally 10 men but one was removed.

Thank you.

 

[CityKid]

If EP got rid of cookbooks (speculation), the dehydrator, the grey plates (speculation), why didn't she dispose of the BW leftovers farther from home?

It's from that binned food, that the DCs were genetically identified, no?

Why on earth did she preserve them and why did she direct LE to them, straightaway?

I think you answered your own question! And I agree with you

 

[Monstradamus]

Yes, and if those same children showed any kind of loyalty to the other parent, watch the drama. Sadly, mere possessions.

JMO

Yes, everyone (including her own children) are responsible for her happiness. Except herself.

 

[jesse]

Absolutely - she was adamant that the kids were fed leftovers from the lunch as she stated she had scraped off the mushrooms as they didn’t like mushrooms. This was the whole point why she didn’t think they got sick. She is now being smart and retracted that they ate lunch leftovers and said it was just leftovers - what utter nonsense from her once again..

I mean, she did insist that she scraped the mushrooms off, of course they're lunch leftovers! What else would they be leftovers from? She gets so into sniping back in think she forgets her purpose.

 

[Monstradamus]

If all the guests died... of indeterminate food poisoning, would the dots have been connected to a shared lunch two days prior? Would EP have said she served BW or beef with potatoes and green beans?

There seems to be a disconnect between the 48 hours after which DC toxin can no longer be detected and the 48 hours during which luncheoners can still talk and share information.

A great deal of evidence in this case came from Ian.

JMO

And from Heather. Intuitive lady. Thought it was significant enough to mention the odd plate. She must have had her own suspicion as she was gravely ill.
MOO

 

[Monstradamus]

I mean, she did insist that she scraped the mushrooms off, of course they're lunch leftovers! What else would they be leftovers from? She gets so into sniping back in think she forgets her purpose.

She deliberately omitted the word "ingredients" IMO

 

[jesse]

I still think regardless that if all 4 had died, it would have been pretty easy to identify the shared meal at the Patterson's house as the likely culprit.

Plenty of people will have known about it, none more so than Simon.

Heather or Gail had an entry in her diary about it. They could easily have mentioned it to their kids, other family, or friends.

 

[BerylTutu]

She didn't actually say they were liars, but she repeatedly contradicted their version of facts and said that what they related wasn't true or never happened, which implies that her kids either have the worst memory in the world or they are liars.

Exactly! I wish that the prosecution had actually pushed her a bit more about these comments and directly asked her “so you’re implying that your children’s testimony is either a lie or they have consistently bad memories”?
I guess she would have just followed her usual commenting though and agreed she thought they forgot or remembered incorrectly or didn’t properly understand.
Still, I wanted the prosecution to punch it home sometimes on comments like this!

 

[Jess D]

You have to wonder if Simon Illnesses can be linked back to Erin then this was not her first rodeo and she seemingly got away with that which could have given her a false sense of security.

ETA - I am not claiming she is guilty it’s just a theory!

I think that is why I can't see this Plan A as a likely scenario is she is guilty. You can't rule it out but it would require an incredible level of naievity.

As I've said before, this case became internationally famous based off the fact that 3 people had died at a meal and the only one who escaped unscathed was the cook. At this point, we knew literally nothing else but a lot of people presumed she was guilty. It's inconceivable that she'd have potentially killed 5 and been the only survivor and would have thought she wouldn't have been public enemy number one.

Of course Erin is clever and probably thorough, but in this scenario it seems likely she made a miscalculation about the DC mushrooms. Even now, if you search how likely someone is to die on Google, the ai generated response quotes 10-30%. Maybe the act of powdering it meant it was much more potent than she realised it would be, and she was anticipating a much more mixed bag of illness and death to which she would fit into with a bit of gastro.

If Erin just wanted to make her victims sick she could have used anything. She could have used something that would have taken much less effort than using Death Cap mushrooms. No, she wanted them to die IMO. (allegedly).

 

[Jess D]

There can be no justice for the victims who died nor for those who loved them, but how ever the verdict falls, I hope that SP finds some validation and healing from EP being exposed as ... a truth dodger. Someone who is never wrong, slides the scale, shifts the blame, it's an exhaustive personality to face daily -- and where children are involved -- it's more complicated, harder to see, harder to leave.

We see it, SP.

When a person like EP drains the wellspring of those around them, they're still not satisfied. They'll take the well, the pump and the bucket too. And blame you, that they had to.

JMO

She's much more than a truth dodger and let's hope she gets exposed and convicted as such.

 

[Jess D]

Figures vary. Other sites say up to 50%. Regardless, all sites talk about the extreme toxicity of this plant and the small amounts of the toxin that can lead to death. Anyone knowingly putting them in a meal is playing with fire.

I'm not persuaded that she didn't know exactly what she was doing and I am of the opinion that her intent was for these old folks to no longer be 'a problem' for her.

 

[Woolly]

Figures vary. Other sites say up to 50%. Regardless, all sites talk about the extreme toxicity of this plant and the small amounts of the toxin that can lead to death. Anyone knowingly putting them in a meal is playing with fire.

I'm not persuaded that she didn't know exactly what she was doing and I am of the opinion that her intent was for these old folks to no longer be 'a problem' for her.

Something to keep in mind, though, is that this may be the first ingestion of dried and powdered death caps. In the cases that these percentages are based on, people have foraged them and eaten them fresh. It could be that powdering them makes them much more deadly.

 

[BreakingNews]

She didn't actually say they were liars, but she repeatedly contradicted their version of facts and said that what they related wasn't true or never happened, which implies that her kids either have the worst memory in the world or they are liars.

Thanks. I guess calling your kids liars vs contradicting what they said, is not the same. I sometimes contradict my kids, but that doesn't mean I would outright see them as lying. That is such a harsh word and if she didn't say it, we should stick to FACTS, she didn't call her kids liars. MOO

 

[Jess D]

Something to keep in mind, though, is that this may be the first ingestion of dried and powdered death caps. In the cases that these percentages are based on, people have foraged them and eaten them fresh. It could be that powdering them makes them much more deadly.

To anyone here that still thinks that Erin was merely trying to make her lunch guests sick, I suggest that you read this. Erin is a person who does her research.

Deathcap mushroom - Amanita phalloides

The Deathcap Mushroom - Amanita phalloides, identification, emergency phone number, one of several illustrated pages introducing Australian fungi.

www.anbg.gov.au