Australia - 3 dead after eating wild mushrooms, Leongatha, Victoria, Aug 2023 #14 *Arrest*

[Scooby-Doo]

Each of those closing addresses could take a couple of days, which could see out that week.

And then final directions, which involves three parts: giving you directions about legal principles that apply in this case, which takes quite a bit of time;

Identifying the key issues in the case and summarising for you the evidence and arguments in relation to those issues; that also takes a fair time.

 

[MaxDecimus13]

Simon was supposed to turn up to the lunch, that way (being dead) he wouldn't be around to report the premise of the lunch to anyone.
Erin did not plan on Simon refusing to attend, nor did she plan on him insisting that his family attend hospital. She didn't plan much at all, aside from them all ending up dead.


Okay, so riddle me this, since we know the following:
A) Erin weighed her Deathcaps
B) The quantity needed to make an adult properly dead is 30 - 50 grams

In your scenario, what is the weight of fresh Deathcaps required to make an adult 10-30% dead?

But Simon didn't attend, so her plan for him attending is irrelevant. She could simply have not mentioned about the cancer once he changed his mind, but she still did and they could still have told him (as well as multiple others) straight away about the cancer.

As I've explained, we know this because we've spent weeks talking about it, there is nothing to suggest Erin actually researched it. It literally says 10-30% of people will die, it says nothing about dosages unless you go and actively look that information up. People seem to think that she only measured the DC mushrooms as if she could only have been doing it to calculate dosages. She was literally posting pictures to her friends with her dehydrating a variety of mushrooms and getting giddy about how much they reduce in weight. There is actually no reason to doubt that this is why she was weighing them.

Before we hear the reply of 'of course she would have researched it' consider that she didn't research whether Enrich did gastric-band surgery. This is despite having had months to do so and it being absolutely crucial to her defense.

 

[MaxDecimus13]

The motive is very clear to me as someone who has lived experience with narcissists and how they operate. Simon had had enough was taking steps to remove himself from her control. She tried to use Don and Gail to regain control and it failed. She had to eliminate his support network in an attempt to reign him back in. Narcissistic rage when they lose control is a very real thing - just look at the Hannah Clarke case for example. Just because EP is a woman does not mean she’s not capable of being a family annihilator. All MOO only and all allegedly of course.

Do you dispute then that she also intended to kill Simon if he had attended the meal?

 

[jesse]

It's almost unbelievable that Erin would take photos of deathcaps on her scales, in her kitchen!

This is so interesting to me. Why do you think she did it?

Do you think she wanted some "trophy" or way to remember her triumph?

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

The liquid in the hydrated mushrooms would make them considerably heavier than dehydrated.
So 100g of freshly picked mushrooms is far weaker than the equivalent of 100g of dehydrated mushroom powder. Chat gpt says a mushroom is 92% water.

100g of freshly picked DC mushroom would only make 10g of powder. That powder gram by gram is therefore almost ten times stronger.

This could be where EP miscalculated? JMO

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

Do you dispute then that she also intended to kill Simon if he had attended the meal?

Agree, from what we know, she was surely also looking to kill S?

 

[jesse]

The court heard last week that Simon and Erin’s text messages from 2105-2023 were 40,000 pages in volume. That’s approximately 100 pages of texts, not individual texts, per week.

That’s a lot of contact for estranged people, imo.

Estranged but not divorced, with two young children and shared real estate holdings. Plus it seems Simon's family was Erin's only family, so she hung onto them where others might have distanced themselves.

Until she permanently distanced them.

 

[Lisa4]

This is so interesting to me. Why do you think she did it?

Do you think she wanted some "trophy" or way to remember her triumph?

If you're asking me, I'd suggest it was as mundane as recording the grams. These days I always take photos instead of writing things down.

 

[Doesitmakesense]

If you're asking me, I'd suggest it was as mundane as keeping a record of the grams shown. These days I always take photos instead of writing things down!

This would be my thinking too. I would take a pic if I wanted to remember the measurement

 

[Deleted member 363451]

Thanks for this detailed reply. I wouldn't want people to make the mistake that I'm wedded to this idea, I'm just trying to make the best of the available evidence and it is a working theory based on if she is guilty, I certainly don't claim to know all the answers. A lot of people just seem to say 'yeh she wanted them all dead' without considering the implications of this opinion.

In my theory, she didn't have a detailed plan of how to use the Deathcaps, and didn't measure them out to calculate a dose etc. She only had a vague idea of how poisonous they were, and an opportunity presented itself where she was able to get some; she wasn't seeking them out. A lot is made of the measuring of the DC, but in the trial we have seen her posting to her friends about how much she was enjoying the dehydrating process and how much it had reduced them by. She didn't only weigh and photograph the DC mushrooms. Does it really make more sense that she's plotting a detailed murder but posting all this information to her friends?

As for what she hoped would happen, she was expecting for them to get sick and to then be able to exploit this situation by either being part of a shared tragedy, or by being able to care for them afterwards. We know already that she was the sort of person who would lie about having cancer for personal gain; that is an extreme situation. This is how she benefits from this situation. She's a woman with cancer who is running around after these people who have gotten mysteriously sick. Again, it makes no sense that people wouldn't know she had cancer, they could have text Simon straight after the meal.

Where she went wrong was simple: she didn't realise how much dehydrating would concentrate the dose and not only how much it would accelerate the symptoms but also how lethal it would be. As I've pointed out, she isn't necessarily thorough like everybody claims she is. This also explains her subsequent panicked hiding of evidence instead of a much better planned cover up.

Now my turn to turn the tables on your presumed account of guilt! I seem to hear a lot of replies about how murder isn't logical, and how people often don't plan for the aftermath but to me these seem like a bit of a cop out answer that is asserted rather than explained. Yes, I can imagine this is the case for a crime of passion or an opportunistic murder.

In this theory, Erin has planned a mass murder over the course of a couple of months. She has sought out DC mushrooms, carefully measured out a lethal dose, created a pretense for the meal and then committed the murder only to not consider what would happen next? On top of this, we actually know that she must have considered what happened next because she already started lying about being sick herself before anybody went to hospital.

What did Erin seek to gain from murdering these 4 people, considering that most people think she also wanted to kill Simon?

Also, how did she get it so wrong? How did she not consider that 3 people dying (with the intention of 5) at a meal she'd hosted would have serious negative consequences for her and her family? Even if they didn't catch the DC, of course she would be suspected, how did she miss this as a true crime fan?

Did she really think that a bit of gastro would absolve her of any suspicion when everybody else got seriously ill or died?

Again, I'm only considering likelihoods. We can't discount that she murdered for the thrill of it, or was filled with such hatred that she wanted them dead no matter the consequence, or was so arrogant she thought everybody would believe her story. It just doesn't seem very likely based on what we know to be the case.

Yes, Erin is just a misunderstood, good person.

 

[Deleted member 194006]

But Simon didn't attend, so her plan for him attending is irrelevant. She could simply have not mentioned about the cancer once he changed his mind, but she still did and they could still have told him (as well as multiple others) straight away about the cancer.

As I've explained, we know this because we've spent weeks talking about it, there is nothing to suggest Erin actually researched it. It literally says 10-30% of people will die, it says nothing about dosages unless you go and actively look that information up. People seem to think that she only measured the DC mushrooms as if she could only have been doing it to calculate dosages. She was literally posting pictures to her friends with her dehydrating a variety of mushrooms and getting giddy about how much they reduce in weight. There is actually no reason to doubt that this is why she was weighing them.

Before we hear the reply of 'of course she would have researched it' consider that she didn't research whether Enrich did gastric-band surgery. This is despite having had months to do so and it being absolutely crucial to Enrich clinic because this lie likely came to her when she was already locked up and her internet access was limited. People in jail don’t

But Simon didn't attend, so her plan for him attending is irrelevant. She could simply have not mentioned about the cancer once he changed his mind, but she still did and they could still have told him (as well as multiple others) straight away about the cancer.

As I've explained, we know this because we've spent weeks talking about it, there is nothing to suggest Erin actually researched it. It literally says 10-30% of people will die, it says nothing about dosages unless you go and actively look that information up. People seem to think that she only measured the DC mushrooms as if she could only have been doing it to calculate dosages. She was literally posting pictures to her friends with her dehydrating a variety of mushrooms and getting giddy about how much they reduce in weight. There is actually no reason to doubt that this is why she was weighing them.

Before we hear the reply of 'of course she would have researched it' consider that she didn't research whether Enrich did gastric-band surgery. This is despite having had months to do so and it being absolutely crucial to her defense.

She wouldn’t have had the opportunity to research Enrich clinic because she likely came up with this lie only recently and after she was already locked up. Inmates do not get internet access where they are free to roam the web and google things as they wish. Also, a lawyer is not allowed to collude with their client, so I highly doubt she would have asked Colin Mandy to search this for her, and I don’t think he would have risked his license to help EP.

 

[MrJ]

I find it very hard to believe that EP is so naive about DCs and accidentally putting it in the meal. She’d powdered mushrooms in her childrens’ food for goodness’ sake! of course we’ll see what the jury says about her innocence or guilt. but I wouldn’t say this was an accident if she is guilty

 

[Deleted member 363451]

Apologies but I explained elsewhere that we're really talking about two different things at the same time on this thread.

1) if she should be found guilty legally
2) if she is guilty, why she did it and what she was hoping for.

I completely accept that for option 1 they don't need to know anything about motive. That said, it would help the case if there was an obvious motive, which is why they've tried to introduce the messages from Facebook. I personally don't find these very convincing at all.

If Erin really liked and respected her in-laws, like she has tried to convince the jury she did, apart from those messages to her FB friends, she wouldn't have fed them Death Cap mushrooms at all, even if it was just to make them sick.

I really do think that you are viewing Erin Patterson through your own lens and trying to find excuses for her being innocent. Everything I've seen come out of this trial convinces me that she is in fact guilty.

 

[Deleted member 363451]

She wouldn’t have had the opportunity to research Enrich clinic because she likely came up with this lie only recently and after she was already locked up. Inmates do not get internet access where they are free to roam the web and google things as they wish. Also, a lawyer is also not allowed to collude with their client, so I highly doubt she would have asked Colin Mandy to search this for her, and I don’t think he would have risked his licence to help EP.

I agree.

 

[L_B]

If EP further pulverized foraged mushrooms, why??????? For what reason would anyone need powdered mushrooms????? Dehydrated mushrooms, sure. But powdered????

Powdered mushroom is a thing, my partner went and bought Reishi Mushroom Powder home from the markets on the weekend, has all sort of health benefits apparently.

In this case though, I cannot see any reason why you'd want death cap mushrooms, let alone in powdered form, for any reason other than to cause death.

 

[Deleted member 363451]

But Simon didn't attend, so her plan for him attending is irrelevant. She could simply have not mentioned about the cancer once he changed his mind, but she still did and they could still have told him (as well as multiple others) straight away about the cancer.

As I've explained, we know this because we've spent weeks talking about it, there is nothing to suggest Erin actually researched it. It literally says 10-30% of people will die, it says nothing about dosages unless you go and actively look that information up. People seem to think that she only measured the DC mushrooms as if she could only have been doing it to calculate dosages. She was literally posting pictures to her friends with her dehydrating a variety of mushrooms and getting giddy about how much they reduce in weight. There is actually no reason to doubt that this is why she was weighing them.

Before we hear the reply of 'of course she would have researched it' consider that she didn't research whether Enrich did gastric-band surgery. This is despite having had months to do so and it being absolutely crucial to her defense.

According to your reasoning, Erin was still risking that there was a 10 - 30% chance that her guests would die.

 

[Deleted member 363451]

Powdered mushroom is a thing, my partner went and bought Reishi Mushroom Powder home from the markets on the weekend, has all sort of health benefits apparently.

In this case though, I cannot see any reason why you'd want death cap mushrooms, let alone in powdered form, for any reason other than to cause death.

 

[Deleted member 363451]

Agree, from what we know, she was surely also looking to kill S?

Even though the charges against Simon were dropped (no doubt due to time passed and lack of evidence), he says that she tried to unalive him 3 times. I don't believe in coincidences of that magnitude...

 

[Lisa4]

I seem to hear a lot of replies about how murder isn't logical, and how people often don't plan for the aftermath but to me these seem like a bit of a cop out answer that is asserted rather than explained. Yes, I can imagine this is the case for a crime of passion or an opportunistic murder.

In this theory, Erin has planned a mass murder over the course of a couple of months. She has sought out DC mushrooms, carefully measured out a lethal dose, created a pretense for the meal and then committed the murder only to not consider what would happen next? On top of this, we actually know that she must have considered what happened next because she already started lying about being sick herself before anybody went to hospital.

I agree that if she is guilty as accused, she would have planned for the aftermath. But was so certain (being NPD) that she didn't have a plan B.

What's your view on this theory? I've outlined it in detail before so will just summarise here:

1. Based on available information online the plan was that ALL present would go down at varying times with varying severity of "gastro", that they all caught off each other at the meal.
2. Note* gastro as an infectious illness (stomach bug), not food poisoning.
3. Different towns, different doctors, no reason for medical persons to suspect foul play.
4. Small towns, more know (of) each other, all unthinkable to the average person... no solid suspicion.
5. NO investigations.

That's just in brief, and all if the accused is guilty.

 

[Detechtive]

She had one that we know about: air traffic controller. How long it lasted is unknown (especially after reportedly calling her department head a buffoon).

That was prior to children. All of her jobs were short lived.