Australia Australia - Celine Cremer, 31, Belgium backpacker, car found at the Philosopher’s fall track, Waratah, Tasmania, 12 June 2023

[TootsieFootsie]

Maybe you might leave the bag on for warmth.

 

[Cedars]

Maybe you might leave the bag on for warmth.

At any rate, it might come in useful, as would the bottle if you found water. I think it's a bad sign if they are confirmed to have been hers.

 

[Malleeboy]

Maybe you might leave the bag on for warmth.

Agreed you might leave it on the next day, but you definitely wouldn't remove it overnight, whatever you did the next dat. But if it was hers, why leave it and the water bottle.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

If they removed it overnight I think that was when they needed to make a shelter out if it.

 

[Grouse]

Agreed you might leave it on the next day, but you definitely wouldn't remove it overnight, whatever you did the next dat. But if it was hers, why leave it and the water bottle.

My thoughts when the bag was found, in what looked like a possible shelter, was that she could have hunkered down there and put it on to try to keep her warm overnight.

If she did do that and made it overnight, I can see why she might leave the heavy glass bottle if it was empty, but would have thought she'd take the bag in case she needed it again. Unless maybe she found it was no help overnight due to condensation.

 

[Grouse]

Been following Rob's videos for a few months now.
If the water bottle and garbage bag are indeed hers, then she got close to the Water Race, which is quite an obvious pathway from the videos I 've seen.
The other question is if where they found the bottle and bag is where she spent the first night, and she was wearing the garbage bag to protect from the rain, she then took it off and left both it and the bottle in that location. If she had it on, surely you would only take it off the next morning.

Thanks for the great map, that does make it clearer. Seems she was almost back to the falls!

 

[Grouse]

If they removed it overnight I think that was when they needed to make a shelter out if it.

Do we know if it rained that night?

 

[Malleeboy]

Weather in June 2023 in Waratah, Tasmania, Australia

Weather reports from June 2023 in Waratah, Tasmania, Australia with highs and lows

www.timeanddate.com

According to Rob Parson's videos it started raining late in the late arvo, the link above is for Waratah has rain in arvo/evening but then clears up and cools down over night.
Philosophers Falls is at 637m, Waratah is at 592m. So, temps should be similar. Pity she picked a cold night, previous night only got down to 12c, her night was 3c.

I have mental image of her putting back against the tree and sitting with legs tucked in, then have garbage bag over your head, pinned with one side to the tree by your back and over your head with your hands hold it over her. Plenty of material to make a shelter but if you have a garbage bag make sense to use that.

No large predators in Tasmania, largest animals are devils and foxes (no dingoes in Tas), neither of which could drag a human. As for spiders, only red backs and funnel web/trapdoors, would have to extremely unlucky to get bitten by either. There are a number of deadly snakes, but again cold night in middle of June, they would be sluggish. Devils and possums make scary noises, that could spook someone at night, if you're not used to their noises.

 

[Rocket333]

Do we know if it rained that night?

Police said the area had sub‑zero temperatures, snow and rain when Celine was lost, and described the conditions as ‘not survivable’. If she sheltered under the tree where her bottle and poncho bag were found, and even survived the night, the extremely cold, dim and wet environment would have rapidly affected her ability to think and function clearly.

It appears there were only about two hours between Celine leaving her car and her phone sending its final location. This raises the question of why she didn’t call for help while she still had connection but she may have believed she could find her way out of there on her own. Losing the phone so soon was a critical turning point, removing her ability to orient herself, use light, or call for help.

 

[Rocket333]

I have mental image of her putting back against the tree and sitting with legs tucked in, then have garbage bag over your head, pinned with one side to the tree by your back and over your head with your hands hold it over her. Plenty of material to make a shelter but if you have a garbage bag make sense to use that.

No large predators in Tasmania, largest animals are devils and foxes (no dingoes in Tas), neither of which could drag a human. As for spiders, only red backs and funnel web/trapdoors, would have to extremely unlucky to get bitten by either. There are a number of deadly snakes, but again cold night in middle of June, they would be sluggish. Devils and possums make scary noises, that could spook someone at night, if you're not used to their noises.

That garbage bag had holes in it too, which gives the impression it was her rain poncho.

She wouldn’t have taken much with her for what would’ve been a shortish walk to the falls and back; car keys, phone, water bottle, and the rain poncho. If she was wearing the rain poncho bag and it was raining or drizzling, you’d think she would’ve kept it on and not taken it off. As it was found with the bottle (the weight of the bottle may have helped to stop it drifting away these past 18 months) Celine must have taken it off if she was wearing it, and used it as a roof of sorts rather than a rain coat.

Your description of Celine sitting against the tree reminds me of the tv show Alone which is filmed on Tassie’s West Coast in Winter. The contestants have sleeping bags, furs, tarps, fire and makeshift shelters etc. and really struggle with the cold and wet. Celine had nothing.

 

[Malleeboy]

Philosopher Falls

This short trail out to Philosopher Falls is worth making a detour for. When the falls are heavily flowing after some rain you'll catch the exhilarating beauty and refreshing mist as it dusts the lush green forest. The trail is known for cartoon-like fungi sprouting all along the way year-round...

www.alltrails.com

If you use this map, you can see where the official trail ends and the blue line of the water course begins and see that it crosses various small creeks. It was a man-made water way that linked near the falls to the nearby dam but is now a rough track but traversable. If you use the previous map, you can see the terrain from where the water bottle was to the water course is not to steep.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

In the dark or fading light something that isn't even very steep may still be a danger.

 

[Rocket333]

Philosopher Falls

This short trail out to Philosopher Falls is worth making a detour for. When the falls are heavily flowing after some rain you'll catch the exhilarating beauty and refreshing mist as it dusts the lush green forest. The trail is known for cartoon-like fungi sprouting all along the way year-round...

www.alltrails.com

If you use this map, you can see where the official trail ends and the blue line of the water course begins and see that it crosses various small creeks. It was a man-made water way that linked near the falls to the nearby dam but is now a rough track but traversable. If you use the previous map, you can see the terrain from where the water bottle was to the water course is not to steep.

Thanks for that Mallee, I’ve had a look.

I’m just trying to understand the sequence and her possible route a bit better. Did Celine reach around 650 m elevation before she started heading back down?

Was the phone found on that descent?

And was the water bottle located roughly 10 m above the path that leads back toward the falls?

If that’s the case, it looks like she may have been close to the track that leads back toward the falls and her car.