Australia Australia - Celine Cremer, 31, Belgium backpacker, car found at the Philosopher’s fall track, Waratah, Tasmania, 12 June 2023

[TootsieFootsie]

Maybe you might leave the bag on for warmth.

 

[Cedars]

Maybe you might leave the bag on for warmth.

At any rate, it might come in useful, as would the bottle if you found water. I think it's a bad sign if they are confirmed to have been hers.

 

[Malleeboy]

Maybe you might leave the bag on for warmth.

Agreed you might leave it on the next day, but you definitely wouldn't remove it overnight, whatever you did the next dat. But if it was hers, why leave it and the water bottle.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

If they removed it overnight I think that was when they needed to make a shelter out if it.

 

[Grouse]

Agreed you might leave it on the next day, but you definitely wouldn't remove it overnight, whatever you did the next dat. But if it was hers, why leave it and the water bottle.

My thoughts when the bag was found, in what looked like a possible shelter, was that she could have hunkered down there and put it on to try to keep her warm overnight.

If she did do that and made it overnight, I can see why she might leave the heavy glass bottle if it was empty, but would have thought she'd take the bag in case she needed it again. Unless maybe she found it was no help overnight due to condensation.

 

[Grouse]

Been following Rob's videos for a few months now.
If the water bottle and garbage bag are indeed hers, then she got close to the Water Race, which is quite an obvious pathway from the videos I 've seen.
The other question is if where they found the bottle and bag is where she spent the first night, and she was wearing the garbage bag to protect from the rain, she then took it off and left both it and the bottle in that location. If she had it on, surely you would only take it off the next morning.

Thanks for the great map, that does make it clearer. Seems she was almost back to the falls!

 

[Grouse]

If they removed it overnight I think that was when they needed to make a shelter out if it.

Do we know if it rained that night?

 

[Malleeboy]

Weather in June 2023 in Waratah, Tasmania, Australia

Weather reports from June 2023 in Waratah, Tasmania, Australia with highs and lows

www.timeanddate.com

According to Rob Parson's videos it started raining late in the late arvo, the link above is for Waratah has rain in arvo/evening but then clears up and cools down over night.
Philosophers Falls is at 637m, Waratah is at 592m. So, temps should be similar. Pity she picked a cold night, previous night only got down to 12c, her night was 3c.

I have mental image of her putting back against the tree and sitting with legs tucked in, then have garbage bag over your head, pinned with one side to the tree by your back and over your head with your hands hold it over her. Plenty of material to make a shelter but if you have a garbage bag make sense to use that.

No large predators in Tasmania, largest animals are devils and foxes (no dingoes in Tas), neither of which could drag a human. As for spiders, only red backs and funnel web/trapdoors, would have to extremely unlucky to get bitten by either. There are a number of deadly snakes, but again cold night in middle of June, they would be sluggish. Devils and possums make scary noises, that could spook someone at night, if you're not used to their noises.

 

[Rocket333]

Do we know if it rained that night?

Police said the area had sub‑zero temperatures, snow and rain when Celine was lost, and described the conditions as ‘not survivable’. If she sheltered under the tree where her bottle and poncho bag were found, and even survived the night, the extremely cold, dim and wet environment would have rapidly affected her ability to think and function clearly.

It appears there were only about two hours between Celine leaving her car and her phone sending its final location. This raises the question of why she didn’t call for help while she still had connection but she may have believed she could find her way out of there on her own. Losing the phone so soon was a critical turning point, removing her ability to orient herself, use light, or call for help.

 

[Rocket333]

I have mental image of her putting back against the tree and sitting with legs tucked in, then have garbage bag over your head, pinned with one side to the tree by your back and over your head with your hands hold it over her. Plenty of material to make a shelter but if you have a garbage bag make sense to use that.

No large predators in Tasmania, largest animals are devils and foxes (no dingoes in Tas), neither of which could drag a human. As for spiders, only red backs and funnel web/trapdoors, would have to extremely unlucky to get bitten by either. There are a number of deadly snakes, but again cold night in middle of June, they would be sluggish. Devils and possums make scary noises, that could spook someone at night, if you're not used to their noises.

That garbage bag had holes in it too, which gives the impression it was her rain poncho.

She wouldn’t have taken much with her for what would’ve been a shortish walk to the falls and back; car keys, phone, water bottle, and the rain poncho. If she was wearing the rain poncho bag and it was raining or drizzling, you’d think she would’ve kept it on and not taken it off. As it was found with the bottle (the weight of the bottle may have helped to stop it drifting away these past 18 months) Celine must have taken it off if she was wearing it, and used it as a roof of sorts rather than a rain coat.

Your description of Celine sitting against the tree reminds me of the tv show Alone which is filmed on Tassie’s West Coast in Winter. The contestants have sleeping bags, furs, tarps, fire and makeshift shelters etc. and really struggle with the cold and wet. Celine had nothing.

 

[Malleeboy]

Philosopher Falls

This short trail out to Philosopher Falls is worth making a detour for. When the falls are heavily flowing after some rain you'll catch the exhilarating beauty and refreshing mist as it dusts the lush green forest. The trail is known for cartoon-like fungi sprouting all along the way year-round...

www.alltrails.com

If you use this map, you can see where the official trail ends and the blue line of the water course begins and see that it crosses various small creeks. It was a man-made water way that linked near the falls to the nearby dam but is now a rough track but traversable. If you use the previous map, you can see the terrain from where the water bottle was to the water course is not to steep.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

In the dark or fading light something that isn't even very steep may still be a danger.

 

[Rocket333]

Philosopher Falls

This short trail out to Philosopher Falls is worth making a detour for. When the falls are heavily flowing after some rain you'll catch the exhilarating beauty and refreshing mist as it dusts the lush green forest. The trail is known for cartoon-like fungi sprouting all along the way year-round...

www.alltrails.com

If you use this map, you can see where the official trail ends and the blue line of the water course begins and see that it crosses various small creeks. It was a man-made water way that linked near the falls to the nearby dam but is now a rough track but traversable. If you use the previous map, you can see the terrain from where the water bottle was to the water course is not to steep.

Thanks for that Mallee, I’ve had a look.

I’m just trying to understand the sequence and her possible route a bit better. Did Celine reach around 650 m elevation before she started heading back down?

Was the phone found on that descent?

And was the water bottle located roughly 10 m above the path that leads back toward the falls?

If that’s the case, it looks like she may have been close to the track that leads back toward the falls and her car.

 

[Malleeboy]

Series of videos by Rob Parsons, this one below covers off the known path.
TLDR 16:00 minute mark for next 2 minutes gives key information to what occurred.

Parks car and spends around 20 min in car.
Walks path to Philosopher Falls but the path takes a 90-degree turn and down a set of steps. However, the path appears to continue along the old water race. We don't know if Celine missed the turn or decided to continue the path after seeing the falls. The turn was not signed when she was there. She continues a fair way towards the reservoir where the water race ran. She turns around and starts back, as it is getting dark and the weather has become inclement, using her phone to assist with navigating. She gets to a point where the actual path appears to lead away from the falls, but there is what appears to be a path in similar condition that is more toward the falls. GPS points have her going on this path, but it quickly peters out as she climbs the hill. (This is shown at just over 16min mark of the you tube clip).

As she climbs the hill the trees ad scrub gets more sparse and easier to walk. At some point the phone stops moving but is still contacting mobile phone towers at a similar time for a couple for days. It would appear to be clear now that she dropped her phone. Probably in her back pocket and falls out as she is going through thick scrub on the far side of the hill.

When and how she got to where the water bottle and garbage bag are (if they indeed hers), we don't know. But likely it is where she stopped, exhausted from bush-bashing through the thick scrub in the dark for hours. At that point the actual water race path is in an arc of around 120 degrees around her and not that far.

There was a waning moon, one day from the new moon, which on 17 June 2023 had set at 6:25pm in northern Tas, so absolutely no moonlight that night.

If you watch the video, SES is State Emergency Services, state based mainly volunteer organization which does search and rescue in Australia.

 

[Rocket333]

Series of videos by Rob Parsons, this one below covers off the known path.
TLDR 16:00 minute mark for next 2 minutes gives key information to what occurred.

Parks car and spends around 20 min in car.
Walks path to Philosopher Falls but the path takes a 90-degree turn and down a set of steps. However, the path appears to continue along the old water race. We don't know if Celine missed the turn or decided to continue the path after seeing the falls. The turn was not signed when she was there. She continues a fair way towards the reservoir where the water race ran. She turns around and starts back, as it is getting dark and the weather has become inclement, using her phone to assist with navigating. She gets to a point where the actual path appears to lead away from the falls, but there is what appears to be a path in similar condition that is more toward the falls. GPS points have her going on this path, but it quickly peters out as she climbs the hill. (This is shown at just over 16min mark of the you tube clip).

As she climbs the hill the trees ad scrub gets more sparse and easier to walk. At some point the phone stops moving but is still contacting mobile phone towers at a similar time for a couple for days. It would appear to be clear now that she dropped her phone. Probably in her back pocket and falls out as she is going through thick scrub on the far side of the hill.

When and how she got to where the water bottle and garbage bag are (if they indeed hers), we don't know. But likely it is where she stopped, exhausted from bush-bashing through the thick scrub in the dark for hours. At that point the actual water race path is in an arc of around 120 degrees around her and not that far.

There was a waning moon, one day from the new moon, which on 17 June 2023 had set at 6:25pm in northern Tas, so absolutely no moonlight that night.

If you watch the video, SES is State Emergency Services, state based mainly volunteer organization which does search and rescue in Australia.

Thank you for sharing Rob’s video and laying out Celine’s path more clearly. It’s helped me visualise her route better and understand how close she was to probably making it out of there if daylight and conditions had been even slightly different. The complete absence of moonlight that night underscores how disorienting and unforgiving those conditions would have been. Hindsight is a beautiful thing, but the simple signage now in place on the path might have made all the difference.

 

[Grouse]

Thank you for sharing Rob’s video and laying out Celine’s path more clearly. It’s helped me visualise her route better and understand how close she was to probably making it out of there if daylight and conditions had been even slightly different. The complete absence of moonlight that night underscores how disorienting and unforgiving those conditions would have been. Hindsight is a beautiful thing, but the simple signage now in place on the path might have made all the difference.

Was thinking exactly the same thing about the signage.

While I gather it gets pretty cold in winter in Tasmania, the low temp that night was apparently +3C and I can't help thinking that a young and fit person, as Celine obviously was, should be able to survive that?

 

[TootsieFootsie]

The Celine Cremer Search – Where to now?

Opinion, By Ted Mead

The Celine Cremer Search – Where To Now? - Tasmanian Times

Ted Mead argues that the recent discovery of Céline’s phone and shelter by volunteers vindicates his long-held belief that local bush skills are the key to resolving her disappearance

tasmaniantimes.com

 

[Malleeboy]

The Celine Cremer Search – Where to now?

Opinion, By Ted Mead

The Celine Cremer Search – Where To Now? - Tasmanian Times

Ted Mead argues that the recent discovery of Céline’s phone and shelter by volunteers vindicates his long-held belief that local bush skills are the key to resolving her disappearance

tasmaniantimes.com

My question about Teds map is that it has her crossing the water race at 90 degree angle and heading down an extremely steep slope. From Rob's video the section she was crossing according to Ted, had a reasonably defined track and a step embankment to get on to the track, she wouldn't have missed it.

It was raining but if she had a garbage poncho, that at least gives tosro some level of protection from the rain. 3c is where it ended up but during the first part of the night it stayed mildish.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

What we might see as a track that no one would miss becomes a different story when the weather is turning bad and the light is fading.

Out there you could easily start doubting yourself and in those circumstances it's easy to start doubting yourself.
Haven't I been past here before ? I'm sure this couldn't be the way, I'll go the other way etc.

Take for instance GPS map instructions that fail when the human part of you actually starts to doubt the instructions.
I've seen it happen.

And human beings don't always think rationally when their situation changes.

What we think of as a way we or anybody would act is not the way that everybody acts.

 

[acutename]

Was thinking exactly the same thing about the signage.

While I gather it gets pretty cold in winter in Tasmania, the low temp that night was apparently +3C and I can't help thinking that a young and fit person, as Celine obviously was, should be able to survive that?

3C... 37F... not below freezing but cold and damp. Had she eaten recently? was she 100% healthy? You can get hypothermia any time you can't maintain your body temperature, so I don't know.