Third map - from Studlhutte to Frühstücksplatz (the breakfast spot)
So etiher start at
6:45 AM at Kals and have estimated time at
Luckner 9:45 to get near
Studl at 11:00 AM and standing in front of that wall that has
Frühstücksplatz sign on it
sometime around 1:00 PM
OR
Start at
Luckner parking lot at 6:45 AM, get near
Studl sometime around
8:45 AM and at
Frühstücksplatz around 10:45 AM
Route there looks like:
View FROM the Grossglockner:
And thats where the yellow sign is:
So if they started at Luckner - theyre almost three hours behind the "estimated" time at "moderate" pace.
But if their starting point was in Kals, then theyre perfectly "in time" with these estimations considering that they took a break and actually ate some breakfast.
Which one is it?
Which one makes more sense?
Three hours behind makes sense considering their incredibly slow progress through the hardest, purely climbing part.
Next to no time "behind" also makes sense, cause that "incredibly slow" sounds like exactly how long would it take to have some totally rough climb in freezing cold, on icy stone, drowning in snow and likely needing breaks often but not in a form of sitting and chilling but somehow moving even a bit, to not get even colder.
To have Thomas's and his lawyer's tales of "bad luck" apply it would HAVE to be reasonable to expect that they can make it. Not only to the summit before sundown at 5:00 PM, but at least all the climbing down part through normal route on the way to Erzherzog-Johann hut.
But obviously, neither of these makes even the slightest sense in context of pushing past
Frühstücksplatz.
Cause there was and isnt, absolutely no way that anyone in half-right mind could expect to make it to the summit and down to Erzherzog-Johann hut before sundown.
Worsening weather at night was totally foreseen and expected, it was just the matter of when exactly its gonna turn totally horrible, but it WAS OBVIOUS that it IS gonna get VERY COLD and VERY WINDY.
If its correct that they were at
Frühstücksplatz at 1:30 PM then they have only 3,5 hours. Huge stretch on the limits of human body.
Possibly Thomas and few mountain goats could pull off that escapade in time but he wasnt accompanied by a wild goat who spend all her life in da mountains so that estimation couldnt be made. Not in good faith. No way. 0% chances. Not one in a mil, not one in a bil. Zero.
Unless Idk, maybe if they started at
Luckner at 6:45 AM and get near
Studl sometime around
8:45 AM and were at
Frühstücksplatz sometime around 11:00 AM.
But E V E N T H E N it would leave them with 6 hours before sundown.
So like the narrowest of the narrow. Smoothest possible climb up and smoothest possible descend. At more than moderate pace it would likely still be just fast enough to pass the stony part of descend, not even get to the Hut.
Its not how summit fever works. It gets people as they have done all these preparations to go, spend all that money, made all that effort and/or went through so much to get so close to the summit...
They just went through few hours of hard, challenging HIKING trail on the way up the mountain they both lived relatively close to, and where Thomas climbed repeatedly.
And what then? Yup, were goin? Keep carrying that splitboard that you wont have a chance to use cause its gonna be totally dark if we even make it there?
Weather archive says that wind increased sometime around 10:00 AM. He was expecting it to suddenly get much better later in the day and higher up the mountain? Sure. I buy that. And I also wanna buy a Golden Gate Bridge.
And that "point B" on the third map is when the stone climb starts.
"Breakfast spot" and yellow sign is higher up.
Thats why my parking at Kals scenario indicated that their speed was incredibly good.
3 hours to Luckner + 2 hours to Studl + 2 hours to the climbing part of the route + some time to climb to
Frühstücksplatz...
7,67km with 800m elevation (Kals-Luckner) with est. 3h
+ 2,84km with 560m elevation (Luckner-Studl) with est. 2h
+ 2,33km with 510m elevation (Studl-the wall) with est. 2h
+ ~250m with 283m elevation (from 3.297m to 3.580m / the wall-the spot)
13,09km with 2153 elevation in ~6,5 hours aint no "slow speed" thats incredibly fast.
Removing the part 1 (Kals-Luckner) with est. 3h, 7,67 km and 800m elevation its STIILL no slow speed.
5,17km with 1070 elevation (Luckner-the wall) with est. 4 hours
+ ~250m with 283m elevation (from 3.297m to 3.580m / the wall-the spot)
in winter, in snow.
That implies some 1-1,5 hour delay in comparison to estimated three hours time on the way from Studl to Fruh thats mentioned on the yellow sign but still, in Winter... I still cant consider it as incredibly slow in context of making that distance.
Its dangerously, scarily slow in context of climbing up to the summit so it absolutely should NOT WORK in favors of Thomas's alleged theoretical, optimistic, good willed, summit feverish decisions repeatedly made as they got to the climbing part of the Grossglockner and as they were passing the yellow sign.