AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #16

[LisaB]

Combining ideas from two different posters.

If one takes the odds on a particular investigative path via counting the number of officers involved in investigating that path, then it's clear that nonfamily abduction is rated 3-4 times more likely than a family abduction (4 officers investigating the family, 12-14 investigating nonfamily abduction).

The remaining 12-14 may be divided among several other possible "paths". It may be 4-5 teams of 4, one on the family, one on "cartels" one on RSOs and another on JM and another on neighbors. JMO

 

[~n/t~]

I admit I am at a loss and puzzled by the latest news of the CPS incident in December of last year.

Whatever it was at that time Sergio was not removed from his home nor is there any record that LE arrested him for this incident. The only records I have seen to do with the children are Beckys and the child endangerment while DUI.

So imo, Isa was right there in December and if there had been an allegation of sexual abuse of Isa CPS would have had her checked out by a doctor immediately to see if she had been molested. So I dont think it has to do with Isa.

But could Sergio have a drinking problem? I wondered if this was around Christmastime. and if he does, can he become emotionally abusive to the boys. Some coaches can be overly hard on their own children who play sports and some dads seem to be much harder on their boys in general than their daughters.

It is now been since May 11th that he agreed to leave his home. He has not been arrested for any crime or that would have hit the news in neon lights and is seen coming and going where he lives.

That is what leaves me puzzled because when CPS and LE is aware of abusive acts toward children they will arrest the abusive parent and forceably remove him from the home and not give him an option to agree. They would go with the testimony of the child or children and also Becky who lived there plus any physical examinations.

imo

I think they have a bigger problem to solve right now. Possibly the case of a murdered child. No contact order was put in place for a reason and all these bits of information coming to surface does not bode well for this family.

I think some of suspect where this is headed and it's not good for Isabel.

 

[MyTinkieGirl]

OK...here weeeeee go!! I might hate myself for bringing this up....BUT, maybe she drowned in the tub.
I'm NOT gonna go with the "sexual abuse" combined with the "drowning" thing, so don't worry, for anyone having the shakes and flashbacks from being submitted to those two words combined in one sentence last summer.

IMO, that's pretty late for kids after a baseball game...especially a 6 yo....just IMO. Have NO first hand experience...but I used to watch kids games with a friend, and it wasn't THAT late. IMO.
At any rate, if I tried to GUESS, I'm thinking a neighbor or relative notified CPS of some sort of "neglect"...or what THEY thought could be classified as that.

SC mentioned Isa said she was "tired"....MAYBE, she needed a bath, or they said she needed one. Maybe SC was supposed to be "watching" her or at least check up on her....help her out of the tub, etc.
HE said he was "watching" the baseball game and "fell asleep"....IIRC.
When he woke, he FINALLY remembered Isa....or even forgot and went to sleep.
She COULD have tried to get out of the tub herself...slipped and klunked her head...OR she COULD have fallen asleep in the tub and drowned.
Whatever it was, as we know, there's usually some "grains of truth" in peoples stories.

IMO, I believe the next door neighbor about the 6:30 voices...that could be when SC remembers Isa's in the tub, and finds her dead. Yada, yada....we know the drill....set up/make up a story about the nanny....OOOPSSS, I mean an "abductor" taking Isa.

We know CPS had been called earlier, people get scared and don't think anyone would believe it was an "accident"(oh, boy...pool/tub...potato potahto). OR, how BAD it would make SC seem....can't have THAT happen, since it seems, IMO, he'd be REALLY mortified by it in front of the community. (oy!!)
Or, that the other boys would be taken away, as well.


ETA: As far as falling asleep in the tub, I did it when I was in my teens...BUT, I was tall enough so my head didn't go under. But, weird feeling waking up in a tub full of H2O.

 

[dimples37398]

Now with this latest news out about CPS involvement prior to her missing, I am thinking since RC is a RN at the hospital here, maybe she was getting different treatment from CPS. Talked to her coworkers, they said no way, talked to people involved with the family which all said no way, maybe they decided to hold off on taking the kids then. I wouldn't doubt based on their jobs, especially RC's, that just maybe this family slipped through the cracks of cps.

I believe just my opinion only that the cps contact in December was probably something related to Isa, maybe she said something strange to a teacher or friend about being touched. Could be that SC was touching her again and she woke up while he was doing so, no choice then instead of her mentioning it again to a friend or teacher, he had to get rid of her.

 

[LisaB]

If I were going to go into someone else's house for nefarious purposes, I wouldn't just go in. I'm a bit cautious, so I'd study their house, get an idea of their routines and the makeup of the household.

If I saw that there were dogs living there, I'd fill my pockets with something absolutely irresistible to dogs. Like garlic roasted chicken cut up into bits, roast beef in tiny chunks, maybe even buy some freeze-dried liver at the pet supply store.

Within 0.003 seconds, the vast majority of dogs would then regard me as their new best friend forever. Very few people teach their dogs to refuse food from strangers or to refuse food the dog finds in the environment.

One problem solved; I would then be able to move into and out of the house without causing the dogs to bark.

Another plus to this strategy is that the dogs themselves would make sure there was no evidence of scattered treats left.

Even better... go over there a week in advance and feed them treats, let them out allowing for the opportunity to walk around inside the outer wall, peep into windows, try doors and windows to see if any are left unlocked, and leave. Stop by a few more times in the following week with treats, and you are good to go when the night of the actual abduction comes.

 

[TxLady2]

I'm just going to backtrack a little, so bear with me.

Remember Nancy Grace continually stating that Isa "usually slept in her brothers' room?"
Well, there's never been any confirmation of that from what I can see and I usually sift through anything NG has to say, BUT I'm seriously starting to wonder if this information was leaked from Isa's school and that is the December CPS connection.

Say Isabel mentioned something about sleeping with her brothers to either a friend (and a teacher overheard) or she said something to a teacher. One of the brothers is 14, so maybe it set off the hinky meter of the teacher. Teacher contacts CPS. CPS does an investigation and finds that nothing is going on, although sleeping with a 10 yo and a 14 yo is weird. Question is, did CPS at any point take any of the children out of the parents' custody? Or did they do an investigation, find nothing was wrong and close the case?

Fast forward...Isa is now missing. Sleeping in her own bed, as CPS recommended (remember, this is just a theory). Coincidence? I don't really believe in coincidences, but my mind has been blown before.

I just always wondered how NG got the info about her sleeping in her brothers' room (not necessarily their bed). Now I'm wondering if there is any truth to it and where it came from. It certainly didn't come from CPS. Their lips are locked tighter than Fort Knox, especially if they've made a mistake (IMO).

You might be on to something, it's a possibility. CPS doesn't recommend children of opposite sexes sleeping even in the same room, much less the same bed. Not that they go around checking families' sleeping arrangements, but IF they are ever called to look into the family dynamics, that's one of the first things they check.
When my stepdaughter came to live with us, CPS came and did a check of our home. They asked us if she would have her own room, which she did. They also said if they were of the same sex, or under a certain age, it would be fine for them to share a room, temporarily, but that eventually we would have had to do some rearranging to give them separate bedrooms.
NG's producers could have talked to someone at the school, or some family friend, but I doubt that CPS would have leaked that information, unless it was a slip by someone inside their office who was not a social worker and maybe didn't know about the confidentiality thing. There's nearly always a snitch in any organization... even the CIA. :what:

 

[CarolAnn]

I never questioned if AZ was correct about the 90 day....but it doesn't seem to be an order....we don't know

You are correct regarding there not being an order, since SC voluntarily agreed to "No contact" with the boys. IMO, AZLawyer did a terrific job explaining what a "Voluntary" - CPS agreement involves. Here is a link to the discussion, starting at post #23 and continued on the next page:

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=172284

jmo

 

[spoiledmom]

I don't think it is a coincidence that police confirmed an abduction and CPS took the boys from their father around the same time. IMO SC is connected to the abduction. I don't think LE would confirm an abduction if they believe she was murdered and discarded of. I agree that SC was not sleeping that night. Sounds like a made up alibi.
IMO
I never even knew their neighbor mentioned the cartel until yesterday. I have other reasons to believe it. Although I could be wrong.

If LE is looking at finances it makes me believe the theory even more. What kind of people purchase little children? People in the black market I assume. People caught up in drug cartels, and gun smuggling, its all connected. Its all about money. Doesn't mean she was sold but their are several possibilities why they could be connected and I don't think any of it had to do with a "random kidnapping". Why would the cartel cause a scene if Isabel was willingly given up? Just a thought. Maybe SC is involved in outside activities that could be dangerous boys. Maybe an arrest is pending and LE needs confirmation and time. Whatever it is, it was enough for CPS to take action.IMO.

 

[~n/t~]

Yep, and I think it was the 14 yo (that saw something out of the ordinary without realizing what it meant), and I think that is why all this is starting to snowball after the reenactment with the beach towel prop! I think SC reenactment was different from the 14 yo. MOO

Oh I think he realized it. We can hear it in his voice in the 911 call.

"Hurry up, man" or something along those lines. Dad had no urgency in his voice whatsoever.

IMO

 

[GrainneDhu]

We have seen two of the three dogs in MSM. They don't look like they are dangerous. I don't even think you'd need any high value treats, any food would work.
The third dog is still a mystery to me, but three dogs were cited in court records.

Still, why take a chance? If you look at the price per ounce of top quality sirloin, for instance, versus the price per ounce of manufactured dog treats, the top quality sirloin is usually cheaper.

I know, I'd be the weirdest criminal ever. I'd end up writing a book called something like 1001 Tips for the Frugal Criminal.

 

[joedotnet]

FYI, after the first CPS news came out one of the news channels posted it on their Facebook page. In the comments section, a poster clearly stated CPS had been involved with the family months before Isa went missing. This makes me think that their "issues" were known to others outside the family and this "normal" family wasn't so normal.

Sent from my SGH-i937 using Board Express

 

[LisaB]

We have seen two of the three dogs in MSM. They don't look like they are dangerous. I don't even think you'd need any high value treats, any food would work.
The third dog is still a mystery to me, but three dogs were cited in court records.

Is this the third dog?

 

[marazul]

It's been hugely unpopular to post this, and I have received a smackdown for even suggesting it, but to me, it is far more likely that this was an inside job engineered as some sort of way to make money rather than an outside cartel abduction.

I'll repeat what was reported weeks ago: LE was interviewing the kids' friends to see what they might have been discussing in the week before Isa went missing. I thought that was interesting and potentially significant.

I am catching up from page 1 so forgive me if this has already been said or is off topic where it lands.
BBM- To me, this could mean just asking them if the boys had mentioned a stranger hanging around, getting weird calls, noticing someone outside when Isa and boys were outside playing, maybe a boy mentioning a parent acting strange, unknown people coming over to meet with parents, things like that..just asking the friends of the Celis boys if any new or unusual comments were made the week before. I don't see this as pointing to LE thinking the Celis family had a plot to hoax.

 

[LisaB]

I have been dying to say this. The dog in the news clips in their front door looks just like the dog on UNCLE Justin's Facebook page. That might be why the dogs were ok if it was UNCLE, cause it was his dog. I got a new iPad so I don't know how to copy or paste or I would put the links up. I will try.
I bet he didn't have a place for his dog so it was there at Rebecca and Sergio's house.

This has been discussed in an earlier thread. If you look closely, you will see that one of the two dogs has white markings the other does not have.

 

[LisaB]

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...9a3-5df6-a4f1-163f280fad8f.html#ixzz1v6xYCuzW

Child Protective Services workers went to Isabel Celis' home in December, months before the 6-year-old was reported missing.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Everything always seems confirmed and denied in the same article. This seems like a big deal to me. Serious enough for CPS to be right there when something finally happened. But what was going on? I can't run very far with this limited info though.

There is such a thing as false allegations. Soon to be exes taking revenge on each other and/or trying to influence the court's decision on custody, neighbours who just don't like a certain family, overly eager mandated reporters, etc.

I'm not saying this is the case with the Celis family but without more information to place this latest tip into context, it's impossible to know whether the previous contact was for something or nothing.

Whoever it was who commented that this may be a calculated escalation of pressure on the family or specifically on SC is probably correct.

 

[Nvgirl]

What about this scenario. What if uncle Justin new there was some allegations from cps in December for whatever reasons and Justin played on that and used that for an oppertunity to abduct isabel and rape her and make it look like sergio did this? And thats why LE said whoever did this did an adequit job covering this up. And if sergio passed his lie detector test and maybe thats why LE is going around in circles. Im sorry but even if Justin did not do anything he to me is still a shady character. Nobody has confirmed how uncle was there so early in the morning, where was he living? He new that house cause he lived there before. He just screams bad news IMO. And if sergio played a part in this, I think uncle did too and those are the two english speaking guys at 6:30 am that the neighbor heard.

 

[TxLady2]

I admit I am at a loss and puzzled by the latest news of the CPS incident in December of last year.

Whatever it was at that time Sergio was not removed from his home nor is there any record that LE arrested him for this incident. The only records I have seen to do with the children are Beckys and the child endangerment while DUI.

So imo, Isa was right there in December and if there had been an allegation of sexual abuse of Isa CPS would have had her checked out by a doctor immediately to see if she had been molested. So I dont think it has to do with Isa.

But could Sergio have a drinking problem? I wondered if this was around Christmastime. and if he does, can he become emotionally abusive to the boys. Some coaches can be overly hard on their own children who play sports and some dads seem to be much harder on their boys in general than their daughters.

It is now been since May 11th that he agreed to leave his home. He has not been arrested for any crime or that would have hit the news in neon lights and is seen coming and going where he lives.

That is what leaves me puzzled because when CPS and LE is aware of abusive acts toward children they will arrest the abusive parent and forceably remove him from the home and not give him an option to agree. They would go with the testimony of the child or children and also Becky who lived there plus any physical examinations.

imo

Not arguing with you, but not all cases of molestation can be detected by a physical exam. If the molestation only consisted of touching inappropriately, without actual penetration, it's not going to show up in an exam. It's really all a matter of who they believe in some cases. Perhaps Becky made the allegations and then retracted them. Or one of the boys noticed something but couldn't provide an accurate description of what they witnessed and CPS didn't believe them.
Or it may not have been related to sexual abuse at all. We just don't know.

 

[Deleted member 718]

I'll repeat what was reported weeks ago: LE was interviewing the kids' friends to see what they might have been discussing in the week before Isa went missing. I thought that was interesting and potentially significant.

snipped by me.

This interviewing the kid's friends has me concerned. I read they were reviewing fb chatter. Then the older boy returns to the home with the parents and investigators. Perhaps the CPS December case was concerning a juvenile complaint. Juvie records are closed so maybe that's why the chief was vague in his comments. moo

I know the children are off limits so I'll end my thoughts here.

 

[Anita Richman]

Over 5 months later and no resolution?

I cant believe that if it is an allegation concerning a child.

IMO

Tucson CPS is famously understaffed and overworked. Mr. Joe Vega (friend of the Celis family) mentioned it in his interview with NG, I'm paraphrasing, "CPS here doesn't have a good name for itself."