CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[SpideySense]

So far no conclusive evidence as to cause of death. It may be that ultimately they won't find one. If that's the case>>what's the MOST LIKELY cause<<??? In my humble opinion HEAT STROKE FAR OUTWEIGHS what ever may be in *second place* given the conditions and that two participants were extremely vulnerable to heat.
Once the weakest link is breached, the entire *chain* breaks down.
It's compelling for some to view this as a simultaneous death (lightning?), when, in all probability, that may not be the case. Many here have posited scenarios that show sequential death is very likely with heat stroke. I'm of this opinion.

To those in the “heatstroke” camp, I offer this friendly challenge in the spirit of lively debate, because I can’t think of a scenario to get around it. How do you account for the water they had with them?

I’ve personally witnessed two very scary heat-related events with close family. The first was with my oldest son when he was 14 months old and had his first febrile seizure. It turns out they’re harmless, but I didn’t know anything about them at the time. All I knew at 2am was that the feverish baby I was holding and comforting suddenly became rigid, his eyes glazed over, and he began making involuntarily movements. The second was with my elderly father, who had overexerted himself loading his truck in 99 degree weather. When I arrived at his house, he could barely shuffle his feet, he fell backwards, and was angrily insisting he was fine.

When you witness heat causing a loved one to rapidly become unrecognizable and to exhibit distressing behavior, if you’re anything like me, your only thought is “Make this stop NOW! Reduce the heat NOW!” In both cases I didn’t first think to call 911 or anything else - it was instinctive “This cannot continue.” In my son’s case, I ran him to the bathtub and began dousing him with cold tap water (which he did not appreciate). With my dad, I didn’t even try to get him inside. Instead I put him in the truck, turned it on, pointed all the vents on him, and blasted the AC, then ran inside to get a wet towel to wrap his neck in.

So, if the thought is that this was a sequential death situation, and that perhaps the baby or dog succumbed first, how does water that could have been used to cool the victim get left in a container?

I’d be curious to know from others who have been in scary and traumatic heat situations if they too felt that instinct to reduce heat at all costs.

 

[gitana1]

Hmm. So looking at this, it appears the first part of trail is more heavily travelled but quickly dips down to the Merced River, after about 1.5 miles. And it’s a total of 4.5 miles to Hites Cove?
Yosemite Hikes: Hite Cove

The first part of the trail is a moderate incline but then it appears to go along the Merced quite a bit and plays and other trees line the canyon floor near the river.

If they’re talking about possible algae blooms, wouldn’t that mean they were by the river or other water source? To me that would make heat stroke less likely as the water could be used to cool their bodies down.

I don’t know.

 

[rahod1]

Super hot. I think it comes down to how far they got and what part of the trail they were on, in determining whether heat stroke is at play. But apparently it can be hard to determine via autopsy so it’s determined somewhat by circumstances and ruling out other possibilities.

EXACTLY

 

[gitana1]

Replying to
@mgafni
With the help of the Mariposa sheriff, we were able to create a more accurate map of the suspected hike the family took. And sadly where they were found. https://sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Not-one-clue-The-mystery-is-only-deepening-16401921.php…



7:31 PM · Aug 20, 2021

Wow! Thanks so much. And I’m sorry for covering old ground! I haven’t had much time to get on here lately.

 

[rahod1]

To those in the “heatstroke” camp, I offer this friendly challenge in the spirit of lively debate, because I can’t think of a scenario to get around it. How do you account for the water they had with them?

Sufficient water doesn't insure prevention of heat stroke. That's a HUGE misconception. You need to prevent the cascade of increasing core body temperature and drinking water alone won't prevent this. In fact THIRST may not be present. To lower core temp requires shading and cooling the body externally (wetting the skin). In this case exposure to high temps with no shade and exertion trumped any water they had on hand. MOO

 

[SpideySense]

Sufficient water doesn't insure prevention of heat stroke. That's a HUGE misconception. You need to prevent the cascade of increasing core body temperature and drinking water alone won't prevent this. In fact THIRST may not be present. To lower core temp requires shading and cooling the body externally (wetting the skin). In this case exposure to high temps with no shade and exertion trumped any water they had on hand. MOO

So why didn’t they use the water to wet the skin and bring down core temp? That’s what I can’t get my head around. I wasn’t suggesting hydration, I was suggesting cooling.

 

[SpideySense]

I keep going back to this...why would parents take their one-year-old baby girl (and an especially oh-so-tiny and delicate baby girl) into a situation in which temperatures would be, what around 100 degrees, at even 10 in the morn? And the dog...her other "baby", thick furred, into that dangerously hot milieu, why? As I said, I keep going back to this.

Families with dogs recreate in and around water bodies in 100+ degree weather all the time. We don’t know that they were on the trail during the hottest part of the day. They could have been comfortably submerged in cool river water miles upstream from the algal mat during that time.

 

[annpats]

So why didn’t they use the water to wet the skin and bring down core temp? That’s what I can’t get my head around. I wasn’t suggesting hydration, I was suggesting cooling.

I think the water in that camelbak container would have been very, very warm. No use for cooling.

And by the time severe heat stroke strikes, it's too late, you can't even think straight. Pouring warm water on your body is probably the last thing you want to do, in fact, you probably wouldn't have the coordination to do it.

 

[annpats]

Families with dogs recreate in and around water bodies in 100+ degree weather all the time.

Recreate, as in light recreation, yes, maybe. (Even so, it's foolish in that heat.)

But "recreation" is not going on a strenuous 8 mile hike, with steep ravines, switchbacks and minimal water supplies.....which sadly is what Jon and Ellen did.

 

[anya]

I would not regard this level as "experienced" in hiking, but rather, a moderate level of athletic fitness.

"Experienced", in my book, involves a whole long menu list of skills and history, including the following. I've labeled with B those skills that a beginner should work at acquiring. M would be expected of a "moderate" hiker. A=Advanced
Note: a lot of these skills are about attitude. Being in awe of nature, respecting others, making sure you don't create a catastrophe that might endanger someone else (e.g. SAR)
-keeping in mind you could be seriously compromised even 1/4 mile up the trail (it happens all the time, and woe betide you aren't prepared) (B)
-significant trail miles with "old timers" who know the ropes; you learn mistakes and protocols from them; you learn what might possibly happen, versus what your limited knowledge projects might happen. Note: "old timers" doesn't mean twenty-somethings. Try 40+; go with your local hiking club, national club, meetup, an organized group with a leader, so you learn whys and wherefores (this does NOT mean a guide on Kilimanjaro) from the leader and other hikers (B)
-knowing, carrying, and using the "10 essentials" (B)
-wearing a pack that has supplies and spare items (e.g. extra socks and raingear) that are appropriate for most hikes so you can address unanticipated changes in conditions
-the demonstrated ability—in the field—to use paper map and manual compass. (M)
-knowing how to filter water (you can practice in the sink at home) (M)
-knowing one's limits, in terms of mileage and time; managing your time, so you are back at the trailhead before dark (B)
-observing Ranger notices and following through (these are frequently safety-oriented, but may be fire banning, or limit to party size, etc.) (B)
-having appropriate gear, especially hiking boots with lugged soles (some National Parks even require these to go on Ranger hikes), and understanding why they are needed (B)
-carrying enough food for the trip, plus an extra sandwich or energy bar; this acknowledges conditions might keep you later than planned (B)
-planning your water supply (B)
-getting the forecast and integrating it into your plan (B)
-observing "leave no trace" practices TO THE LETTER; to get this right, you have to understand and abide by (from every ounce of your being) the notion that everyone and everything deserves a pristine trail. "Experienced" folks will often carry out other people's trash, even if it's micro-trash, just because the trail and its surroundings are for everyone, creatures and people. This takes commitment and selflessness. (B)
-the Red Cross certificate in wilderness first aid is a good idea (I used mine the first hike after I got it). (A)
-and yes, to be "experienced" you would have had to manage some obstacles or "surprises" in your history (M)
-above all, having respect for nature; hubris is the very opposite of "experience". (B)

-I almost forgot. How to poop in the wilderness is an art and a skill. It keeps everyone and everything as safe as possible, nature unmarred by your presence. How to pee, an art and a skill for women. Especially without taking your pack off. (B, M, A!)

It takes miles of hiking in steep, less steep, rugged, and basic, to get this kind of experience, but just because you walked a bunch of miles doesn't make you "experienced". That's merely "fit".



IME most backcountry folks who are "experienced" (as in, VERY advanced) don't actually refer to themselves that way. This is why I rarely go along with a friend or relative labeling a missing hiker "experienced".

Thank you so much for this, especially the part about respecting nature in all regards (so many use trails as their personal gym lately) and to pack in and out, plus having a manual compass, water ratio needed according to weight, temps/climate, being aware of surroundings, etc etc.
Going long distances at a clip rate with trendy gear on guided tours in far flung reaches does not necessarily make an experienced hiker.

I just want to clarify that my comment is not directed at the victims - this is simply a comment of hiking experience/expertise in general.

 

[SpideySense]

But "recreation" is not going on a strenuous 8 mile hike, with steep ravines, switchbacks and minimal water supplies.....which sadly is what Jon and Ellen did.

What is your source for “minimal water supplies”? I hadn’t heard that.

I recall LE saying there was a bladder containing some water on the scene, and that dehydration was unlikely. But he didn’t say there was ONLY one bladder. I also recall LE saying they were well prepared. So, for all we know, they may have been found with multiple bladders emptied over the course of the day. Or even a filtration device. Heck, Mom could have had a daypack stuffed with apples, oranges, GORP, chocolate. We really don’t know anything, and we shouldn’t assume that “They had some water in a bladder” means that’s ALL they had.

If LE is saying they were well-prepared, why aren’t we taking that as face-value evidence? Why is it being questioned?

And why is this necessarily being categorized as an 8-mile hike on a hot day instead of possibly a 4-mile hike in the morning, a day spent on a river, and a 4-mile hike back in the late afternoon on a trail that was in shade because the sun had passed over the peak? Without more information, the second possibility is just as viable as (and much more pleasant than) the first.

We really know very, very little about the scene and what exactly LE knows.

 

[SpideySense]

I think the water in that camelbak container would have been very, very warm. No use for cooling.

I have to strongly disagree with that statement. ANY temperature water applied to skin (short of scalding that might burn) will result in cooling because it’s not the water’s temperature that cools you down. It’s the process of evaporation that cools. Sweat comes out of us at 98.6 degrees, yet it cools us down because it evaporates.

And by the time severe heat stroke strikes, it's too late, you can't even think straight. Pouring warm water on your body is probably the last thing you want to do, in fact, you probably wouldn't have the coordination to do it.

My post was asking why any person who hadn’t yet become heat-affected failed to use the water to cool his/her loved one. It wasn’t suggesting the person suffering should have thought of that and done it him/herself.

 

[NSamuelle]

Thanks for all the info.!

Either they are attempting to rule out heat stroke or they have reason to think it may be something else.

What gives me pause about the heat stroke theory is that all five died. Usually with heat stroke not everyone in a group would be affected the same way.

Do we know where on the trail they were found? Like how many miles from the trailhead? These people aren’t total novices. Surely they knew how hot it would get and wouldn’t go that far? Where is Hites Cove in relation to the trailhead?

They were found 1.5 miles from their car. Someone linked a helpful map above.

 

[NSamuelle]

To those in the “heatstroke” camp, I offer this friendly challenge in the spirit of lively debate, because I can’t think of a scenario to get around it. How do you account for the water they had with them?

I’ve personally witnessed two very scary heat-related events with close family. The first was with my oldest son when he was 14 months old and had his first febrile seizure. It turns out they’re harmless, but I didn’t know anything about them at the time. All I knew at 2am was that the feverish baby I was holding and comforting suddenly became rigid, his eyes glazed over, and he began making involuntarily movements. The second was with my elderly father, who had overexerted himself loading his truck in 99 degree weather. When I arrived at his house, he could barely shuffle his feet, he fell backwards, and was angrily insisting he was fine.

When you witness heat causing a loved one to rapidly become unrecognizable and to exhibit distressing behavior, if you’re anything like me, your only thought is “Make this stop NOW! Reduce the heat NOW!” In both cases I didn’t first think to call 911 or anything else - it was instinctive “This cannot continue.” In my son’s case, I ran him to the bathtub and began dousing him with cold tap water (which he did not appreciate). With my dad, I didn’t even try to get him inside. Instead I put him in the truck, turned it on, pointed all the vents on him, and blasted the AC, then ran inside to get a wet towel to wrap his neck in.

So, if the thought is that this was a sequential death situation, and that perhaps the baby or dog succumbed first, how does water that could have been used to cool the victim get left in a container?

I’d be curious to know from others who have been in scary and traumatic heat situations if they too felt that instinct to reduce heat at all costs.

Ellen was a Red Cross instructor and also taught disaster preparedness, so if Jonathan, the baby or dog was overcome before her (likely, as she was very healthy and into yoga), it doesn’t make sense to me that she wouldn’t have made more progress in getting help.

 

[NSamuelle]

I have to strongly disagree with that statement. ANY temperature water applied to skin (short of scalding that might burn) will result in cooling because it’s not the water’s temperature that cools you down. It’s the process of evaporation that cools. Sweat comes out of us at 98.6 degrees, yet it cools us down because it evaporates.



My post was asking why any person who hadn’t yet become heat-affected failed to use the water to cool his/her loved one. It wasn’t suggesting the person suffering should have thought of that and done it him/herself.

Right, I’ve been hung up on this as well. I’d expect a (formerly) wet T-shirt draped around the neck, attempts to call for help by the person who had not succumbed, and greater progress towards help by the person who had not yet succumbed. If both did succumb to heat eventually, it’s actually odd that they were close together - heat stroke victims tend to wander from disorientation (look at the Death Valley Germans or, more recently, Kreycik, who ran in irrational “tight loops” instead of a linear path that would’ve taken him out of the park). I’d expect expect Ellen to be more than 30 yards (or 15 seconds of walking) away.

Safety tip: Carry instapacks of ice - they’re light, easy, and cheap. If you overheat, crunch them in your hand and apply to back of neck, groin, and under arms (basically you’re trying to get close to blood flow). I’m not an experienced hiker by any means, but I carry them.

 

[Deleted member 292879]

Excellent posts, @SpideySense! Thank you. Lightning seems like a strong theory when you lay it out as well as you have. And I like your theory that they spent longer down there, by the water, maybe to escape the heat of the day. That's a long time to be out of the house with a one-year-old, but it's certainly possible if they had enough kit with them, and/or if they felt like they had no other choice.

I'm still haunted by the blogger's post shared here a few pages ago (trying to find the link again and will add here). I'm imagining myself climbing back up Savage-Lundy, and even in good shape, being around their age, I think I would struggle.

And I randomly wanted to add, crazy that the NYT story yesterday didn't even mention the temperatures that day. Pretty irresponsible for such a highly regarded media outlet.

 

[everybodhi]

I'm going to throw Naegleria fowleri into the mix, just in case, a microscopic amoeba that is found in lakes, rivers and hot springs.
If the river is low enough to warm up to grow algae, it may be a suitable environment for this too.

Child dies from rare brain-eating amoeba in California

People become infected when water contaminated with the amoeba goes up their nose. From there, the organism can enter the brain and destroy brain tissue. Infections are almost universally fatal, with less than a 3% survival rate, Live Science previously reported.
It's unclear exactly why some people are able to survive the condition, but factors that may contribute to survival include early detection of the infection and treatment with an experimental drug called miltefosine, along with other aggressive treatments to reduce brain swelling.

The only way to prevent Naegleria fowleri infection is to avoid swimming in bodies of freshwater, the statement said.

 

[SpideySense]

Ellen was a Red Cross instructor and also taught disaster preparedness, so if Jonathan, the baby or dog was overcome before her (likely, as she was very healthy and into yoga), it doesn’t make sense to me that she wouldn’t have made more progress in getting help.

Exactly this. If this was a heat stroke event, you’d expect to see evidence of rescue attempts. They were only about a mile from a river, and it was downhill from them. If Baby or dog showed any heat stress, I’d be racing down at a good clip to get them dunked in water. If it struck one of the adults first, I’d expect SOME evidence of triage (water bladder emptied, clothes used in attempt to provide shade, person found in a prone position indicating they’d received CPR, etc.)

In this case, we’ve heard nothing to indicate there was frantic activity at the scene to keep others alive. Instead, what we’ve heard is that it was eerily sterile and that the victims seemed to die at once (recall the biggest concern/theory from LE at first was some sort of gas that may have struck them all suddenly).

 

[NSamuelle]

Exactly this. If this was a heat stroke event, you’d expect to see evidence of rescue attempts. They were only about a mile from a river, and it was downhill from them. If Baby or dog showed any heat stress, I’d be racing down at a good clip to get them dunked in water. If it struck one of the adults first, I’d expect SOME evidence of triage (water bladder emptied, clothes used in attempt to provide shade, person found in a prone position indicating they’d received CPR, etc.)

In this case, we’ve heard nothing to indicate there was frantic activity at the scene to keep others alive. Instead, what we’ve heard is that it was eerily sterile and that the victims seemed to die at once (recall the biggest concern/theory from LE at first was some sort of gas that may have struck them all suddenly).

Agree with all of this except I think you meant “supine,” not prone ;-). I remember it with “supine, looking up at the pines.” Good CPR commonly breaks ribs and leaves bruising, so (as you said) it doesn’t seem like it was attempted.

 

[everybodhi]

Exactly this. If this was a heat stroke event, you’d expect to see evidence of rescue attempts. They were only about a mile from a river, and it was downhill from them. If Baby or dog showed any heat stress, I’d be racing down at a good clip to get them dunked in water. If it struck one of the adults first, I’d expect SOME evidence of triage (water bladder emptied, clothes used in attempt to provide shade, person found in a prone position indicating they’d received CPR, etc.)

In this case, we’ve heard nothing to indicate there was frantic activity at the scene to keep others alive. Instead, what we’ve heard is that it was eerily sterile and that the victims seemed to die at once (recall the biggest concern/theory from LE at first was some sort of gas that may have struck them all suddenly).

There are so many links (and some personal experiences) posted earlier in this thread about how heat stroke effects decisions, causing disorientation and confusion from an over heated brain and how quickly it kills once the core temp rises but this is my favorite.
What It Feels Like to Die from Heatstroke

Also, reading the Philip Kreycik thread on this site is an eye opener, he died a short walk away from suburbia.
Found Deceased - CA - Philip Kreycik, 37, Pleasanton Ridge Regional Park, 10 Jul 2021 #2